Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 1-11-13

1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
He has been training steadily in Florida, most recently breezing five-eighths in 1:01.42 on Saturday. Next-race plans have not been announced, but at the rate he's going, don't be surprised if he turns up in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on January 26th.

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
Just recently had his first work back since his runner-up effort in the Remsen, breezing a half-mile at Palm Meadows in a bullet :48.01. Like Dewey Square, his next-race plans are still undetermined.

3. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
On January 1st, he breezed for the first time since the Breeders' Cup, going an easy three-eighths in :39.22. The plans are to bring him back in the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream on February 2nd.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Likely champion has been on the work tab since mid-December, most recently going five furlongs in a sharp 1:00.04. First up on the agenda is the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) on January 26th.

5. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's back in training following a mild illness, having breezed a half-mile twice since the end of last year. Hard to say where this well-bred colt will end up running, but don't be surprised to see him back sometime in February -- perhaps even in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II).

6. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
He hasn't turned in a workout since the CashCall Futurity, but he should be back to serious training before too long. The Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) on February 23rd is scheduled to be his first race of the season.

7. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
He hasn't breezed in a couple of months, which had me worried there for a while, but Lukas told DRF.com that the colt will be ready to run in March, so for the moment, Titletown Five will stay here. His maiden victory on October 28th looks even better since Bradester -- who finished nine lengths behind Titletown Five -- has since one two straight, including a nice allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream on New Year's Day.

8. Mountain Eagle (Birdstone - Gulch Legacy, by Gulch) Trained by Nick Zito
In my opinion, this is the colt that could give Zito his first Derby victory since 1994. A beautifully bred son of Birdstone, Mountain Eagle broke his maiden on December 8th at Gulfstream Park by 4 1/2 impressive lengths, stopping the clock for a mile in 1:35.965 seconds. But perhaps the most impressive part of his victory was the final quarter mile of :24.41 seconds, this coming off the heels of a third quarter in :24.51. In my opinion, that is a sign of exceptional stamina.

9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
I'm having trouble determining where to rank this colt, partly because his record is a bit inconsistent. He broke his maiden impressively first time out. Then he finished a poor fourth in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. I). Then he was a spectacular winner of the Futurity Stakes (gr. II). Then he was beaten eight lengths in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III). Most recently, he dug deep to win the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) with one of the highest Beyer speed figures earned by a two-year-old last year. We'll learn more about him in the Gotham Stakes (gr. II) on March 2nd, his anticipated three-year-old debut.

10. Power Broker (Pulpit - Shop Again, by Wild Again) Trained by Bob Baffert
Although on the surface his record doesn't look all that great, this colt -- in my opinion -- has more talent than most people give him credit for. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he was very wide on boths turns while trying to close over a speed-favoring track, yet was still able to draw within 1 1/2 lengths of the lead at the eighth pole before understandably flattening out and finishing fifth, beaten five lengths. And of course, his 6 1/2-length triumph in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) was about as impressive a performance as you could hope for. He's not expected to run again until March, but when he returns, watch out.

11. Uncaptured (Lion Heart - Captivating, by Arch) Trained by Mark Casse
This is another colt that I'm not quite sure what to do with. His two-year-old season was spectacular -- he won six of seven starts, including the Kentucky Jockey Club (gr. II) and Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) -- but at the same time, his performances on the track leave me questioning his ability to traverse ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May. His pedigree doesn't provide a conclusive answer, as it seems to suggest that a mile and a quarter is within Uncaptured's reach without being overly confident in itself. Furthermore, he's being dealing with a foot bruise that will cause him to miss the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III), originally scheduled to mark his three-year-old debut. Like Overanalyze, we'll surely learn more further down the road.

12. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Well-regarded son of Curlin broke his maiden impressively at Saratoga before going to the sidelines with sore shins. He returned to the work tab in December and has since breezed five times, most recently going five-eighths in 1:00.04 on January 6th. His return is expected to come in an as-of-yet undetermined allowance race.

13. He's Had Enough (Tapit - Amelia, by Dixieland Band) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Looked excellent finishing second by a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but was subsequently beaten nine lengths when fifth in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). His overall record is rather confusing -- in the morning, he trains like a superhorse, and he ran terrific in his debut, but often runs poorly without any excuse. However, it is worth noting that the Breeders' Cup marked his only start on dirt, so don't be surprised if he rounds back into form upon returning to that surface.

14. Frac Daddy (Scat Daddy - Skipper's Mate, by Skip Away) Trained by Kenny McPeek
Showed a great deal of talent when breaking his maiden by 9 3/4 lengths and a great deal of grit finishing second by a neck to Uncaptured in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II). From a pedigree perspective, ten furlongs may be a bit of a reach, but it's certainly not out of the question.

15. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert
Highly promising debut winner missed the Sham Stakes (gr. III) after being slightly off just prior to a key workout, but tests revealed no injuries, and he breezed five furlongs in a sharp 1:00.40 on January 7th.

16. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill
Showed a new dimension in the Sham Stakes (gr. III), rating comfortably in second before rallying for a 1 1/2-length triumph. From a visual perspective, it was a terrific race -- he beat a couple of nice colts in Den's Legacy and Manando, with the rest fifteen lengths behind. However, the fractions tell a different story -- the final eighth of a mile was run in a very slow :13.66 seconds, despite a fairly moderate early pace. But regardless, this was a major step in the right direction for Goldencents.

17. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.
While his victory in the Gulfstream Park Derby may have been aided by a track-bias, Itsmyluckyday was nevertheless highly impressive in winning by 6 3/4 lengths. Mildly concerning was the way that he drifted out coming off the turn, but he seemed to straighten out better once in the stretch and was certainly pouring on speed late. That he closed his final eighth in :12.70, despite running the opening three-quarters in 1:09.11, was very good indeed.

18. Omega Star (Candy Ride - Pride of Pegasus, by Fusaichi Pegasus) Trained by John Shirreffs
After finishing a sharp second in his debut for trainer James Jerken, this well-bred colt was transferred to the barn of John Shirreffs and promptly broke his maiden in dominating fashion at Santa Anita on the final day of 2012. The race was a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight for California-breds, and Omega Star was the heavy favorite. With Julien Leparoux aboard, Omega Star settled into seventh early on while racing on the fence, shifted to the outside turning for home, and finished up strongly (6.17-second final sixteenth) to win by three dominating lengths. By Candy Ride out of a Fusaichi Pegasus mare, he should be able to stretch out in distance just fine.

19. Maleeh (Indian Charlie - Gold Mover, by Gold Fever) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Although he didn't race as a two-year-old, this promising son of Indian Charlie made quite the debut on January 6th, rallying for victory in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Aqueduct. Although the time of 1:10.84 seconds was impressive, it was the way Maleeh did it that impressed me. After getting off to a beautiful start and briefly attempting to challenge for the early lead, Maleeh was allowed to settle back in fourth place as the field moved down the backstretch. He made a nice, smooth run around the turn to reach contention entering the homestretch, but appeared beaten when the free-running leader Bellamy Storm scorched the fifth furlong in :11.51 seconds to maintain a two-length advantage. Nevertheless, Maleeh closed in strongly under a hand ride, edging Bellamy Storm in the final strides while running his own final eighth in about :11.74 seconds. He may not have the strongest of pedigrees, but there's no denying his talent.

20. Fury Kapcori (Tiznow - Gin Running, by Go for Gin) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
There were plenty of horses I could have included in this twentieth and final spot, but this colt gets the call thanks to his game second in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I). I find his pedigree intriguing, being a son of Tiznow out of a Go for Gin mare. Go for Gin, of course, won the 1994 Kentucky Derby in front-running fashion and went on to be second in both the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Going further back, he is inbred 4S X 5D to In Reality, through that stallion's son Relaunch and his daughter Real Crafty Lady, who is the dam of Crafty Prospector.

****

Unfortunately, a number of promising colts have fallen off the Derby trail this week due to injury. Perhaps the most prominent was Hightail, winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, who suffered a sesamoid injury in training and was retired.

Also dropping off the trail were Gulfport, winner of two straight races in impressive fashion, and Archwarrior, a well-regarded Saratoga maiden winner that was recently turned out for a break after failing to train up to par this winter.

-Keelerman

Jerome Stakes draws wide-open field of eight

The $200,000 Jerome Stakes (gr. II), the first of Aqueduct's major prep races for the 2013 Kentucky Derby, has drawn a wide-open field of eight three-year-old colts and geldings looking to begin the year with a graded stakes victory.

The one-mile, seventy-yard race -- which has been held at one mile and in April during recent years -- lacks an obvious favorite. Notable entrants include Vegas No Show, winner of the Dover Stakes but most recently ninth in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II); Traskwood Stakes winner Vyjack; Long River and Mudflats, a pair of promising maiden winners; and two-time minor stakes winner Notacatbutallama.

A trio of stakes-placed runners -- Siete de Oros, Amerigo Vespucci, and James Jingle -- round out the field.

Notably absent from the list of entrants is Gulfport, a well-regarded allowance winner from the barn of Dale Romans. The colt had been expected to ship from Gulfstream Park to contest the Jerome, but will instead await the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream later this month.

Post Positions:
1 Siete de Oros
2 Vyjack
3 Long River
4 Amerigo Vespucci
5 Notacatbutallama
6 Mudflats
7 Vegas No Show
8 James Jingle

-Keelerman

Gulfport to contest Jerome Stakes

According to DRF.com, Gulfport -- a highly-regarded allowance winner trained by Dale Romans -- will contest the $200,000 Jerome Stakes (gr. II) on January 5th at Aqueduct.

The colt has been training at Gulfstream Park in Florida for the last month, most recently breezing six furlongs in 1:12.40 on the morning of December 29th. A son of Unbridled's Song out of the Seeking the Gold mare Dream Supreme, Gulfport is a half-brother to 2007 Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner Majestic Warrior.

Other colts pointing toward the Jerome include Traskwood Stakes winner Vyjack, Dover Stakes winner Vegas No Show, and the promising maiden winners Mudflats and Long River.

Keelerman's Derby Top Ten 12-28-12

1. Dewey Square (Bernardini - Somethinaboutbetty, by Forestry) Trained by Dale Romans
I was very impressed by his effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. After being hung wide on both turns, he appeared to be on his way to a distant defeat at the top of the stretch. However, he seemed to find another gear when challenged by Tesseron and finished very well in the final eighth of a mile, winning his personal duel with Tesseron and closing 2 1/2 lengths on the winner. Coming off of two very easy victories, I was pleased to see him dig deep when it mattered and give it his all.

2. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown
He made a simply tremendous run around the final turn of the Remsen Stakes, and while he did flatten out just a bit in deep stretch to be beaten a nose, I think that he has the potential to keep improving with leaps and bounds. Also take note of the fact that the final time in the Remsen -- 1:50.13 -- was a full two seconds faster than Unlimited Budget ran in winning the Demoiselle Stakes one race earlier.

3. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher
In my opinion, Capo Bastone's efforts in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and the FrontRunner Stakes were two of the finest performances turned in by a two-year-old this year. In the FrontRunner, he dropped back to last over a very speed-favoring track, yet still rallied to be beaten just a half-length for second. In the Juvenile, he again trailed the field over a speed-favoring surface, yet still rallied to loom menacingly in the stretch before flattening out a bit to finish third. It was later discovered that he had bled. He has since been transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher and is currently training in Florida.

4. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher
You can't deny that Shanghai Bobby has talent. He's unbeaten in five starts, he won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he won the Champagne, he won the Hopeful . . . you don't sweep that trio if you lack talent. However, speed-favoring tracks seemed to help his chances in both the Juvenile and the Champagne, and he doesn't have the strongest mile-and-a-quarter pedigree.

5. Gulfport (Unbridled's Song - Dream Supreme, by Seeking the Gold) Trained by Dale Romans
This guy has flashed talent since his first start, but really put it all together two starts ago, romping to victory in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He backed up that effort with an impressive triumph in a one-mile allowance race at Churchill Downs, which he won by 2 3/4 lengths in the quick time of 1:35.93. It appears as though the sky is the limit for this talented colt.

6. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's only made one start, but it was a good one. In a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Betfair Hollywood Park, War Academy settled back into third while racing three wide, then finished up strongly to win by a commanding 1 3/4 lengths. His final time of 1:17.66 wasn't anything stellar, but this colt is not bred to be a sprinter. He is bred top-and-bottom to be a stayer -- he's a son of Giant's Causeway out of an A.P. Indy mare.

7. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher
It took him a couple of tries, but Violence finally seems to be getting this racing thing figured out. After running greenly to victory in both a maiden special weight and the Nashua Stakes (gr. II), he put it all together in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), racing along the rail for much of the race before splitting horses in the stretch and drawing off late to win by 1 1/4 lengths. He looks like a good one.

8. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
This colt's career has been an interesting one. After losing his first three starts -- while competing against horses like Gulfport, Violence, and Maybe So -- he broke through in terrific fashion last time out, winning a seven-furlong allowance race at Churchill Downs by nine lengths while stopping the clock in 1:23.84. The runner-up, Bradester, was in turn ten lengths clear of the third-place finisher, and has since returned to break his own maiden in impressive fashion.

9. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher
This fine colt showed a tremendous deal of grit in the Remsen Stakes, digging in when challenged by Normandy Invasion in the homestretch to turn certain defeat into victory. For his effort, he earned a Beyer speed figure of 99, one of the highest of the year for a two-year-old colt. The only reason I rank him so low is because he seems to be more of a grinder type, and doesn't have the same turn-of-foot as Normandy Invasion.

10. Long River (A.P. Indy - Round Pond, by Awesome Again) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Beautifully-bred Darley colt lost his first two starts -- albeit against some very good horses -- before breaking through with a three-quarter length triumph going a mile and seventy yards at Aqueduct in rather quick time. He is currently scheduled to contest the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct on January 5th, where he will get an opportunity to prove himself as an elite Derby contender.

-Keelerman

Futurity Stakes Entries: Carried Interest makes stakes debut

The promising Carried Interest, unraced since breaking his maiden first time out at Belmont Park in July, is scheduled to make his stakes debut on Sunday in the $200,000 Futurity Stakes (gr. II).

Trained by Richard Violette Jr., the son of Henny Hughes showed a great deal of speed in his debut, running the first half-mile of a five-furlong maiden special weight in :44.79 seconds before holding off a late charge from subsequent winner Palace Malice to win by a half-length.

His primary opposition may come from Handsome Jack, who has finished second in both the Sanford Stakes (gr. II) and Track Barron Stakes. Trained by Wesley Ward, he also possesses a great deal of natural speed and could challenge Carried Interest for the early lead.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has entered a pair of promising colts. Overanalyze will likely go off at a lower price, thanks to his decent fourth-place effort earlier this month in the Hopeful Stakes (gr. II), but Drum Roll has run fairly well in a pair of graded stakes events and could also contend.

Special Jo, runner-up in the Sapling Stakes (gr. III); Weekend Hideaway, winner of the David Stakes at Saratoga; and Gulfport, a maiden from the barn of Dale Romans, round out the field.

Post Positions

PP	Horse	Weight	Jockey	Trainer
1	Carried Interest	118	Alan Garcia	Richard Violette, Jr.
2	Special Jo	118	Julien Leparoux	Steve Asmussen
3	Gulfport	116	Javier Castellano	Dale Romans
4	Overanalyze	118	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher
5	Handsome Jack	118	Joel Rosario	Wesley Ward
6	Drum Roll	118	Ramon Dominguez	Todd Pletcher
7	Weekend Hideaway	122	Jose Lezcano	Philip Serpe

-Keelerman

Juveniles at Saratoga -- September 1-3, 2012

September 1st

Race 7: Maiden Special Weight

7 furlongs for 2yos

Trainer Todd Pletcher had a pair of entrants, with the more highly El Duro receiving more betting support. But in the end, that colt could only manage an even fourth-place finish behind Pletcher's other colt Micromanage, who stamped himself as a colt of very high quality with a decisive victory. Ridden to victory by Javier Castellano, the son of Medaglia d'Oro settled into fifth place early on before working his way into contention about a half-mile from the finish. He then made a bold run around the turn to take command of the lead at the top of the stretch before subsequently drawing off in powerful fashion to win by five lengths in the exceptional time of 1:23.01 seconds. Apex tracked the pace for much of the race and finished clearly second best, but was no match for the winner. Gulfport was heavily favored, but tired to finish third after setting fractions of :23.23 and :46.62 seconds.

September 2nd

Race 2: Maiden Special Weight

7 furlongs for 2yo fillies

There were four first-time starters in the field of eight, and in the end, they swept the trifecta. The winner was Cue the Moon, who spent much of the race in fourth place before attempting a rally in between horses and having the hole close. Then, after waiting for racing room, jockey Ramon Dominguez shifted his mount to the outside, and Cue the Moon responded with a good run that carried her to a half-length triumph in 1:24.30. Emollient was last early on, rallied well on the far outside to take the lead, but couldn't hold off the winner's run while turning in a good effort. Madgi put in a mild rally from seventh place to finish third, 3 1/4 lengths behind the winner. Liquid Lunch tracked the pace in third place, took over the lead at the top of the stretch, but gave way late to finish fourth.

Race 10: Spinaway Stakes (gr. I)

7 furlongs for 2yo fillies

Teen Pauline was the odds-on favorite thanks to a track record-setting debut earlier in the meet, but tired in the stretch to finish third behind So Many Ways, who brought her record to a perfect 3-for-3 with a decisive victory.

http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/09/so-many-ways-wins-spinaway-stakes.html

September 3rd

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight

8.5 furlongs on turf for 2yos

Noble Tune was favored for trainer Chad Brown, and the son of Unbridled's Song lived up to expectations with a dominating victory. With Ramon Dominguez aboard, the colt didn't get off to the best of starts, but soon settled into the sixth position along the rail while Bye Bye Bernie set fractions of :24.66 and :49.74. Noble Tune continued to save ground around the turn, then split horses entering the homestretch to seize command of the lead and draw away powerfully to win by 3 1/2 lengths in 1:43.08 seconds. Draw Too rallied from last to finish second in a good effort. Metro raced wide throughout and just missed securing the place. Bye Bye Bernie tired to finish seventh.

Race 3: Maiden Special Weight

8.5 furlongs on turf for New York-bred 2yos

West Hills Giant, with Jose Espinoza aboard, turned in a gritty effort to win this race by a head. The son of Frost Giant spent much of the race in the third position, saving ground on the first turn before switching to the outside rounding the second bend. He then moved up to take over the lead from pace-setting Holy Endeavor before subsequently finding himself in a thrilling battle with that one for the length of the stretch. In the end, West Hills Giant held tough to win by a head in 1:43.39 seconds. The runner-up set a slow pace of :24.59 and :49.36 seconds before eventually losing the stretch duel with the winner. Irish Jade rallied from ninth to secur third, beaten just three-quarters of a length.

Race 6: Maiden Special Weight

5.5 furlongs for 2yos

Seven horses went to post, with Todd Pletcher's Revolutionary sent off as the favorite. But the winner was Always in a Tiz, who tracked the pace in the second position before taking over in the at the top of the stretch and holding off a late run from Clawback to win the race by a half-length in 1:04.13 seconds. The latter colt settled into the third position early on, four lengths behind the eventual winner, then made a bold run to draw within a head of Always in a Tiz at the eighth pole. However, he failed to sustain his momentum to the wire, losing ground to the winner late while holding on to finish second. Revolutionary was bumped hard at the start and trailed the field by fourteen lengths with just five-sixteenths of a mile to go, yet rallied furiously in the homestretch to finish third, missing the victory by just 1 1/4 lengths.

Race 9: Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (gr. I)

Fortify was the favorite for owner Goldophin Racing and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, but Todd Pletcher was able to put the finishing touches on a spectacular meet by winning this race in impressive fashion with Shanghai Bobby.

http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/09/shanghai-bobby-wins-hopeful-stakes.html

-Keelerman