QUALITY ROAD WINS THE MET MILE!!!

Despite setting blazing fractions and being challenged late, Quality Road held off all comers to win the Met Mile in a blazing 1:33.11!

Good for him! What a race! Musket Man made a bold run at him, but finished second. Tizway finished third, followed by Convocation.

-Keelerman

MET MILE UPDATE 1

It is currently fifteen minutes to post time for the tenth race at Belmont Park. The Metropolitan Handicap. Quality Road's race.

He is currently the 1-9 favorite, but seeing that the second choice is 10-1, I would guess that he is more like 1-20. Le Grand Cru is recieving a bit more money than I thought he would, but he is still only 28-1. Amazingly, You And I Forever is the 42-1 longshot! This is the colt who ran second to Quality Road in the Hal's Hope! The colt who has won a one-turn mile race already this year!!

Now it is post time. Quality Road is currently 1-4. He is the first one in the gate.

It's nearly time. . .

CHURCHILL DOWNS Race 10

They're off in the Winning Colors! Dubai Majesty broke fastest! Hot Dixie Chick takes the lead! Double Expresso is there in third! Dubai Majesty is tackling Hot Dixie Chick! A thrilling stretch dual awaits!

. . . not so thrilling after all! Dubai Majesty proved that she was the best horse in the race by winning impressively. Secret Gypsy rallied for second, followed by Hot Dixie Chick and Double Expresso.

-Keelerman

LONE STAR PARK Race 7

We are now just a minute away from the seventh at Lone Star, the mile and a sixteenth USA Stakes for three year olds on the turf.

The favorite is Coyote Legend, who will be trying to secure his sixth straight win, and he is my pick. But can he be upset in his turf debut? We'll find out shortly.

They are loading into the gate. I can't wait! Coyote Legend is one of my favorite horses.

They're off! Golden Euro has the lead! Coyote Legend is right there in second! Perfect Lou is third, followed by Nuggets Please. Coyote Legend in right there, but he's fading! Golden Euro hangs on for the win! Coyote Legend finish sixth! Oh no!

-Keelerman

BELMONT PARK Race 9

We are only about a half hour away from the Metropolitan Handicap, with Quality Road trying to secure his place in racing history, but prior to that race we have the grade II Sands Point Stakes, a nine furlong turf race for three year old fillies.

It's tough to figure this race out. There is Negligee, the 2-1 favorite, Check the Label, the 5-2 second choice, Hit it Rich, the 3-1 third choice, and Khancord Kid, the 9-2 fourth choice. There are only seven runners.

My pick is Check the Label.

It is post time now. They are loading into the gate! It's going to be an exciting race! Hit it Rich doesn't want to go in! They're off!

More is Better was squeezed at the start. Now she leads the way with Ultimate Class! Negligee is right there in third! Check the Label is fourth! She has nowhere to go! Now she's free! Here comes Crescenda! But Check the Label hangs on! Crescenda finished second, Negligee third!

-Keelerman

Good for her!

EVENING JEWEL WINS THE HONEYMOON HANDICAP

Despite having to work hard all the way to the wire, Evening Jewel proved that she can handle turf by winning the grade II Honeymoon Handicap at Hollywood Park.

Giving her six solid rival six to eight pounds, Evening Jewel went to the lead and fought off every challenge to the wire, eventually winning by a head over Cozi Rosie. City to City finished third, followed by Triple Cream and Andina, who finished in a dead-heat for fourth, and In the Slips and Dreamed to Dream.

Very, very exciting.

-Keelerman

LONE STAR PARK Race 6

It is currently five minutes to post for the sixth race at Lone Star Park, the Valid Expectations Stakes. A six furlong race on the dirt with a $75,000 purse, it is open to fillies and mares three and up. The heavy favorite right now is Mother Ruth, and she is my pick. The second choice is No Other Tone, followed by Simplify and Favorite Flavor. Aunt Grace and Stormy Express are the longshots in this six horse field.

It is now two minutes to post. The horses are walking around.

Zero minutes to post time! The horses are approaching the starting gate!

They're off! Favorite Flavor has the lead! Mother Ruth is down along the rail! Wow, what a rail run! Perfect for Mother Ruth! How did she get through that hole! She'd drawing off! She won by a lot! Good for Mother Ruth!

Simplify finished second, followed by No Other Tone and Favorite Flavor.

-Keelerman

BELMONT PARK Race 8

It is nearly time for the eighth at Belmont now. The slight favorite is Justify, but I have picked Glory in Motion, who is currently the 7-1 fifth choice. I also like Wild Awake a lot.

It's post time now. They are loading into the gate! And they're off! Glory in Motion has taken the lead! A Word to the Wise is second, and Who is Lady is third. Justify has nowhere to go!

Down the stretch! Glory in Motion is fading! It's a three way photo finish! I think that Who is Lady finished first.

But I was wrong! Wild Awake got the victory by a nose at 3-1!

More updates shortly. . .

-Keelerman

MONMOUTH PARK Race 8 & LONE STAR PARK Race 5

They're loading into the gate for the eighth race at Monmouth, an allowance optional claiming race. The favorite is Ever a Friend. My pick is Pickapocket, but I suspect that Pointing North is sitting on a big one. . .

They're off! Get Serious has taken the early lead! Florentino follows him! Pickapocket is eight lengths off the lead!

Ever a Friend has nowhere to go! Get Serious still leads! Get Serious goes wire-to-wire! But there is an objection! Final time 1:33 and change for the one mile turf race.

In the meantime, we come to the fifth at Lone Star. The favorite for the Ouija Board Handicap is Wasted Tears. I don't think she can lose. Bubbly is the second choice.

They're off! Bubbley broke fastest, but Wasted Tears has taken the lead! Down the backstretch they're still one-two! Around the turn they're still together!

What a stretch dual! Wasted Tears held on to win by a neck! The final time was 1:33.25.

Out at Hollywood Park, the two year old filly J P's Gusto won the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Handicap very impressively. I would say that she is definitely a filly to watch.

And finally, the objection at Monmouth was not allowed, so Get Serious is the official winner.

I'll be back with more soon. . .

-Keelerman

BELMONT PARK Race 7

It is just one minute to post for the seven race at Belmont Park, a $25,000 claiming race at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. The slight favorite is Chromosphere, but my pick is Morethan Fourhourse.

Ten horses will be running. They are currently loading into the gate.

I'm going to predict right now that the final time will be 1:40 4/5. : )

They're off! Key to Victory has the lead! Smart Selection is right there! Morethan Fourhours is fifth!

Now Millenium Jet has the lead! They're coming down to the finish! Very very close! Morethan Fourhours got up in time!

Boy, that was exciting! I'll be back soon!

-Keelerman

LONE STAR PARK RACE 4

It's just three minutes to post time for the first of seven stakes races being run at Lone Star Park today. Race four, the Carter McGregor Jr. Memorial Handicap, drew a field of seven, but two scratches have left the race with five runners. The heavy favorite is Quiet Again, currently at 6-5, and with Martin Garcia in the saddle, he is my pick.

However, Southern Vintage is expected to challenge him. Currently 2-1, he will be ridden by Aaron Gryder, who has already won a race at Lone Star today.

The horses are approaching the gate. The distance is six furlongs, the purse is $50,000.

They're off! Quiet Again has the lead! Southern Vintage has taken the lead!

Quiet Again is fading! Photo finish! Was it Southern Vintage or Supreme Secret! Too close to call!

The final time was 1:10.05. Watching the slow motion replay, I can't tell. Maybe it was a dead-heat!

The results are official! I can't believe it! They did finish in a dead-heat!

I'll be back in a few minutes to discuss the 7th at Belmont. . .

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- MAY 28th, 2010

If you can believe it, the Triple Crown is nearly over. On June 5th, the final leg will be completed. Just yesterday, Dave in Dixie was added to the list of starters. But although the race is very near, I'm afraid that we can't concentrate on it yet. Because there are still many good races to be run before then, including the Metropolitan Handicap for older horses. So let's take a look at what's being run around the country, beginning with the Dogwood Stakes for three year old fillies.

DOGWOOD STAKES (gr. III) ---- Churchill Downs, Race 10, May 29th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)

The race has drawn a very solid field, and I would not be surprised if a very good horse comes out of this race. One of these runners might even become a Breeders' Cup champion!

To begin, there is the number one horse, Tap Tap Tapping. 10-1 on the morning line, the daughter of Tapit comes into the race with only a maiden win. In her last race, she ran fifth in an allowance race at Churchill Downs a month ago. But she did finish third in the grade III Honeybee Stakes back in March. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by F. Lenclud. She is trained by D. R. Vance. I don't think that she will win, but she has a shot at hitting the board.

Then there is the number two horse, Age of Humor. 6-1 on the morning line, the daughter of Distorted Humor has not raced since finishing twelfth in the Kentucky Oaks last month, beaten nearly twenty-two lengths. Prior to that, however, she had been running very nicely against very good company, finishing second to Liam's Dream in an allowance race and defeating Fuzzy Britches in the Busanda Stakes. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by F. C. Torres. She is trained by Michael Maker.

This brings us to the number three horse, Fuzz Britches. The daughter of Pollard's Vision has run five times this year, including an incredible two races in the span of four days back in January. On the 6th, she won a starter allowance race, and then came right back to finish second in the Busanda Stakes. Incredible. In her last race, she missed winning an allowance optional claiming race at Churchill Downs by a nose. Although she is 8-1 on the morning line, I feel that she is a major contender here. She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by C. J. Lanerie. She is trained by Rick Dutrow Jr.

Then there is the number four horse, Ailalea. The daughter of Pulpit is the morning line favorite at 8-5 based off of her solid fifth in the Kentucky Oaks last month. She is possibly the best filly in the race, but will she win? She will have to carry the top weight of 123 pounds, giving away four to six pounds. Will see what she can do. Anyway, she will be ridden by Calvin Borel and is trained by Todd Pletcher.

This brings us to the morning line longshot at 15-1, Helen Belen. The daughter of Five Star Day has never started on dirt, but comes off a third in the Indiana Downs Distaff Stakes, run at one mile in track record time. I would not be surprised if she runs better than her odds, but she probably won't win. She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by S. Gonzalez Jr. She is trained by W. J. Denzik Jr.

Then there is the number six horse, Vertical Vision. At 6-1 on the morning line, the daughter of Pollard's Vision is a big contender. She has not raced since finishing a fast closing second in the Instant Racing Stakes at Oaklawn Park. It's hard to say if she can win, but she should be able to more than hold her own against these fillies. She will carry 119 pounds and will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. She is trained by Steven Asmussen.

This brings us to the number seven horse, Visavis. The daughter of Indian Charlie comes off of a solid second in the Eight Belles Stakes at Churchill Downs and looks ready to keep improving. At 3-1, she is the morning line second choice. Can she contend against this group? I really don't know. But she should be able to run a solid race. She will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by J. Theriot. She is trained by S. Margolis.

Finally, we come to the number eight horse, Bell's Shoes. Like Visavis, the daughter of Mineshaft comes out of the Eight Belles Stakes, where she ran fourth. 10-1 on the morning line, she doesn't look like a contender here, but she has hit the board in a couple of stakes races and could surprise many people by hitting the board. She will be ridden by J. K. Court and is trained by W. H. Fires. She will carry 117 pounds.

So here are my picks. . .

1 Fuzzy Britches
2 Ailalea
3 Age of Humor
4 Visavis
5 Vertical Vision
6 Helen Belen
7 Bell's Shoes
8 Tap Tap Tapping

It's hard to say who will win, but I think that Fuzzy Britches will come through with a win. Ailalea should be a huge contender, but I don't think that she is going to run her best race. Age of Humor should make a good run, and she can win. I'm going to take a stand against Visavis, thinking she may bounce off of her run in the Eight Belles. It should be a great race. I'll be watching it!

OTHER RACES TO WATCH

Although there isn't a ton of three year old action this weekend, there are some notable older horse races, and I will discuss those to some extent as I prepare to switch over to discussing Breeders' Cup in a couple weeks. But to begin, I'll give a brief overview of the Marine Stakes at Woodbine.

The mile and a sixteenth race for three year olds drew a field of six prior to Giant's Tomb scratching, leaving the field with five runners. The slight morning line favorite at 9-5 is Exhi, who won the grade II Lexington Stakes in mid April. However, I would not be surprised if he is sent off as the heavy favorite.

The second choice at 2-1 is Hotep. The colt comes into the race off of an easy win in the Wando Stakes at Woodbine as the slight favorite. Prior to that, however, he ran tenth and eleventh in the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby down in Louisiana. So it's hard to say how well he will run tomorrow.

Bear's Hard Ten, Essence Hit Man, and Mint Chip complete the field.

Then there is the USA Stakes, at a mile and a sixteenth on turf for three year olds. The big name here is Coyote Legend, who will try to extend his winning streak to six while trying turf for the first time. He is undefeated this year, and I am confident that he will win. Fortunia and Looks Purrrfect are expected to challenge him, but he should be able to put them away in the stretch and win by three.

I'll be back later with further analysis on the Lone Star Park's Monday races, but now I shall move on to the grade I older horse races that are being run this weekend.

To begin, there is the Gamely Stakes for fillies and mares three and up. At nine furlongs on the turf, the race drew Forever Together, the 2008 Champion Older Female, as well as Tuscan Evening, who is currently leading that division this year. It will probably come down to those two, but Gotta Have Her, Cat by the Tale, and Well Monied are right there to snatch the win if the big two falter.

But of all the races being run over the next few days, there is none better than the Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont Park. More commonly known as the Met Mile, the one mile race has always been a very prestigious race, but it has even more lustre this year as Quality Road, one of the frontrunners for Horse of the Year, makes his return off of a brief layoff. But he will have competition.

The race drew a truly incredible field of eight. Any horse can win, although it would take a monster performance to upset Quality Road. But can any horse do it?

I think that Le Grand Cru can. He comes into the race off of an upset win in the Westchester Handicap at this track, completing the one mile race in 1:34 4/5. In that race, he defeated last year's Met Mile winner Bribon. But the biggest reason he can win is the fact that he is trained by Allen Jerkens, who earned his nickname "The Giant Killer" by upsetting Secretariat twice with two different horses, Kelso three times with Beau Purple, and I don't remember the others. But he once ruled New York, Aqueduct especially, and I would love to see Le Grand Cru win it for him. Perhaps Le Grand Cru can even get him his first Breeders' Cup win later this year!

Of the remaining horses, Warrior's Reward, Musket Man, and You And I Forever could also pull the upset. And anyone else could contend. It's a solid race, and I can't wait for it to be run.

The only other question is this: Can Quality Road break the track record, and at the same time, can he topple the great Dr. Fager's world record dirt mile? The time to beat is 1:32 1/5. It has been equaled. But it has never been beaten. Will it fall? Only if the track is fast. There is a 30% chance of rain at Belmont on the 31st. If the rains can hold off, we could see a monster performance. Quality Road is a standout and time will tell where he fits in history.

However, in the grade I Shoemaker Mile Stakes at Hollywood Park, there is no stand out. Karelian will probably be the favorite, based on his win in the grade I Makers Mark Mile last month, but Mr Gruff, Gallant Son, Global Hunter, Noble Court, and Compari are all looking to pull the upset. However, I think that Karelian is the best horse and will come through with a win.

RACE RECAPS

Yes, this post is shorter than usual, but I am a bit behind and need to condense things a bit so that I can catch up. I want to be live tomorrow with updates on the races, as well as additional picks, so I'm going to have to make these race recaps quick.

The first race I shall discuss was a nine furlong allowance race at Belmont Park on the turf for three year olds and up. The horse of note was New Madrid. Trained by Tim Ice, he was using the race as a prep for the Belmont Stakes. All he had to do was run a solid race and he would be running in the final jewel of the Triple Crown.

He did not run well.

Despite setting pedestrian fractions of :25 flat, :50 2/5, and 1:15 flat, he failed to continue and ended up fifth, beaten three and three quarter lengths by the impressive winner Kindergarten Kid. Favored Spanish Art, who was also my pick, finished third. The plans for the Belmont were scrapped.

Then there was the Danzig Stakes at Penn National. A six furlong race for three year olds, the heavy favorite was Turbo Speed, but my pick was Foreign Argument. The second choice on the morning line, I figured that he would be sent off at about 3-1, but as it turns out, he was sent off as the 11-1 longshot.

Guess who won?

With an impressive inside rally, Foreign Argument blew past everyone to win by three lengths. The rider of Gator Bay, who ran second, lodged an objection but the stewards let the results stand.

As for Turbo Speed, he finished last while never really threatening.

This brings us to the Wonders Delight Stakes, a six furlong race at Penn National for three year old fillies. The very heavy favorite was Liam's Dream, and she was also my pick. After sitting just off the pace for the first quarter of a mile, Liam's Dream came three wide to win by two and a half. Lovabull Me came late to finish second at 26-1, while Listen In ran third.

Then there was the New York Stallion Stakes at Belmont Park. A seven furlong race for three year olds, the 1-4 favorite was the filly Franny Freud, challenging colts for the second time in her career. Some wondered whether she deserved to be the favorite, as she was making her first start on turf, but she proved that she could run on anything by wiring the race for a six length victory. The final time was a sharp 1:21 2/5, and I would not be surprised if this filly becomes an Eclipse champion someday. She was extremely impressive. 27-1 Leatherhead rallied for second, a length in front of the 3-1 second choice Make Note.

This brings us to the one mile and seventy yards Spend a Buck Stakes, run at Monmouth Park for three year olds. The mild favorite was Ibboyee at 2-1, with Our Dark Knight and Nacho Friend the co-second choices. Rule by Night, Allez Reef, and Afleet Again were all well bet too.

It was a tight finish, but in the end, Ibboyee got home first. Rule by Night set the early pace, followed closely by Our Dark Knight and Allez Reef. Ibboyee was back in third, followed by Afleet Again, My Elusive Star, Medaglia's Express, and Nacho Friend.

After fractions of :24 flat, :49 2/5, and 1:14 flat, Rule by Night was still the leader, but only by a head. Ibboyee was coming to tackle him while Allez Reef was trying to stay in contention. Afleet Again was within a length and a half of the lead while Our Dark Knight appeared to be fading.

But as they turned for home, Our Dark Knight came back on again. Afleet Again was coming, but suddenly drifted off to the outside, costing him the race.

Down to the finish they came and it was Ibboyee by a half length. Our Dark Knight was second, a neck in front of Afleet Again.

So here are the results. . .

1 Ibboyee
2 Our Dark Knight
3 Afleet Again
4 Nacho Friend
5 Rule by Night
6 Allez Reef
7 My Elusive Star
8 Medaglia's Express

. . . versus my picks.

1 Our Dark Knight
2 Ibboyee
3 Afleet Again
4 Nacho Friend
5 Rule by Night
6 Allez Reef
7 My Elusive Star
8 Medaglia's Express

So I didn't do too badly. I was pleased with the results, but being a huge fan of Afleet Alex foals, I wish that Afleet Again had stayed running straight. I'm confident that he would have won if he hadn't drifted out.

Then there was the Lazaro Barrera Memorial Stakes. A grade III race for three year olds at Hollywood Park, the favorite in the seven furlong race was Concord Point, just slightly over Smiling Tiger. At the wire it was those two, but not in that order. Smiling Tiger went neatly wire-to-wire, fighting off Concord Point to win by a half length. Domonation finished third, followed by Macias and Skipshot.

So here are the results. . .

1 Smiling Tiger
2 Concord Point
3 Domonation
4 Macias
5 Skipshot
6 Big Man Has a Sign
7 Dixie Trouper
8 Mr Tokyo
9 Hawaiian Springs

. . . versus my picks.

1 Concord Point
2 Macias
3 Skipshot
4 Hawaiian Springs
5 Smiling Tiger
6 Domonation
7 Dixie Trouper
8 Mr Tokyo
9 Big Man Has a Sign

So I didn't do terribly, and I didn't do great. Concord Point nearly got the win, but he just couldn't get there.

Then there was the Arlington Classic Stakes. A mile and a sixteenth turf race for three year olds, the favorite was Workin for Hops. Family Foundation was the second choice, followed by Summer Movie, Indy Scent, and Alfarabi. It was going to be a very close race.

Or so I thought.

In the end, it was all about Workin for Hops who won the race in wire-to-wire fashion by two and a quarter lengths. Alfarabi rallied wekk for second, with Gleam of Hope third.

The final time was 1:45 2/5.

So here are the results. . .

1 Workin for Hops
2 Alfarabi
3 Gleam of Hope
4 Mister Marti Gras
5 Our Champion
6 Family Foundation
7 Indy Scent
8 Summer Movie

. . . versus my selections.

1 Workin for Hops
2 Gleam of Hope
3 Alfarabi
4 Our Champion
5 Mister Marti Gras
6 Family Foundation
7 Summer Movie
8 Indy Scent

So I was very pleased with how the race turned out. I had the right idea on every horse!

This brings us to the American 1,000 Guineas. The favorite was Queen of the Creek, but I liked Bay to Bay and Go Ask Alex. Go Ask Alex was coming off of a track record performance in the Indiana Distaff Stakes, but was only the fourth choice here.

As it turns out, Go Ask Alex nearly pulled off the upset. She sped away to an early lead and had a three length lead at the eighth pole, but Bay to Bay came charging fast and ended up with a two and a half length win. Go Ask Alex held second over Queen of the Creek, with Orchestrator fourth.

So here are the results. . .

1 Bay to Bay
2 Go Ask Alex
3 Queen of the Creek
4 Orchestrator
5 Chantilly Nayla
6 Kilmore Quay
7 Besitos
8 Lucky Lass

. . . versus my selections.

1 Bay to Bay
2 Go Ask Alex
3 Queen of the Creek
4 Orchestrator
5 Kilmore Quay
6 Chantilly Nayla
7 Lucky Lass
8 Besitos

So I had a nice superfecta there. The final time was 1:39 1/5. Will Bay to Bay become a super filly? Who knows. But I think that she will become a grade I winner without a doubt. We'll see what happens.

And finally, there was a seven furlong allowance race at Belmont Park. For three year olds and up, the three year old Afleet Express was the favorite. He was also my pick. I have loved this colt since his maiden win and have been waiting for breakthrough performance, because I am sure that he is grade I caliber.

He finally proved it.

Sitting second for the first furlongs, Afleet Express made a strong three wide move to take the lead and he never looked back, winning by seven and three quarter lengths. The Pegasus Stakes has been mentioned as a possible next start for him.

And so I'm afraid that I am finished for now, but I will be back later with more picks and thoughts on other races. On Met Mile day, I will be live, posting updates as Quality Road's possible coronation comes closer. Will he be crowned king, or will he be upset by a commoner? It's going to be great. Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN UPDATE --- MAY 23rd

Yes, I know that I just posted here yesterday, but several things have happened since then, and I need to mention a couple of other races that I forgot to discuss yesterday.

I'll begin with my first "Breeders' Cup Update". Although my blog is entitled "Keelerman's Triple Crown Countdown", I'm going to have to switch over to discussing the Breeders' Cup in a few weeks, since the Triple Crown will soon be over. So anyway. . .

Goldikova, winner of the last two runnings of the Breeders' Cup Mile, made a successful return to the races in the nine furlong fifty-five yard group I Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp in France.

Although the distance was a bit long for her, the five year old mare came through with a half length victory in stakes record time. According to her trainer, she will run in the Queen Anne Stakes in June next.

Secondly, Tapitsfly, winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies' Turf last year, recorded her first workout since then, breezing three furlongs in :38 4/5 at Churchill Downs.

And finally, here are my picks for the Spend a Buck Stakes at Monmouth Park. . .

1 Our Dark Knight
2 Ibboyee
3 Afleet Again
4 Nacho Friend
5 Allez Reef
6 Rule by Night
7 My Elusive Star
8 Medaglia's Express

. . . and the La Lorgnette Stakes at Woodbine. . .

1 Biofuel
2 Empire Song
3 Ernfold
4 Redverse
5 Moment of Majesty
6 Tee Game
7 Witch's Cove

And that is all. Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- MAY 21st, 2010

WARNING: DO NOT READ UNLESS YOU HAVE A LOT OF TIME ON YOUR HANDS. I AM ABOUT TO RECAP WHAT HAS HAPPENED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS, AS WELL AS WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN THIS WEEKEND. THIS COULD EASILY GO OVER FIVE THOUSAND WORDS.

That said, allow me to begin. . .

A lot of things have happened since I last posted. The 2010 Preakness Stakes is in the history books, the Dwyer Stakes, Lone Star Derby, and many other good stakes races are over, and the Belmont Stakes field has already been sorted out pretty well.

I'll begin by recapping the Preakness Stakes, which was by far the biggest race run during the past couple of weeks.

PREAKNESS STAKES RECAP

The year 2010 had been fairly predictable up until May 15th. Todd Pletcher wins this, Todd Pletcher wins that, or, look at that! Another three year old stakes winner for Todd! Todd, Todd, Todd! For the first time, Todd Pletcher stood in the winner’s circle of the Kentucky Derby. He had the winners of the Wood Memorial, Fountain of Youth, Louisiana Derby, Lexington Stakes, Risen Star Stakes, El Camino Real Derby, Bonnie Miss Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby, and three year old runners had placed in many more graded stakes races. His Derby winner Super Saver looked incredible coming into the Preakness. There was no possible way that he finish out of the top three in the second leg of the Triple Crown.

The only horse given a good chance at beating him was Lookin at Lucky, but it wasn't supposed to happen. Sure, Lookin at Lucky could win, but it was fact that the two year old champion had been dethroned.

It took Lookin at Lucky just under two minutes to reclaim the status as king of his crop.

Under an excellent ride from new jockey Martin Garcia, Lookin at Lucky finally got lucky, stayed out of traffic, and outfought two game colts to the wire in the Preakness Stakes. Unfortunately, neither of those two colts were Super Saver. The Derby champion came up empty on the far turn and finished eighth, beaten nearly twelve lengths.

The early stages of the race defied logic. Much to everyone's surprise, First Dude, the third longest shot in the field of twelve, raced right to the front to open up a length and a half lead. Super Saver, breaking from gate eight, got away cleanly and took up the chase. Unlike in the Derby, where he sat up to eight lengths off the lead, the colt was sent right up to pressure First Dude on the outside. I thought that he was in a pretty good position until I saw the first quarter mile fractions. :22 4/5. At the point, I knew the race was over for him.

Meanwhile, Jackson Bend, who had finished twelfth in the Derby, was racing along in third on the rail, where Super Saver probably should have been. Caracortado was running well in fourth, but he was stuck four wide. Yawanna Twist and Lookin at Lucky were racing together in sixth, with Yawanna Twist down along the rail taking the turn very well. The latter had been in tight at the start, and had to steady at the seven furlong marker, but had still gotten himself into a good position just behind Jackson Bend. Then it was Paddy O'Prado in seventh, with Schoolyard Dreams, Northern Giant, Aikenite, Pleasant Prince, and Dublin trailing the field. Dublin, who has always drifted out at the break, had an absolutely horrible start, drifting all the way to the outside while losing many lengths before Garrett Gomez convinced him to go back to the other rail. At this point, the race was just about over for him.

So the race continued on. After a half mile in :46 2/5, I was ready to scream. Why is Super Saver so close to the lead!? The fractions were blazing! At this point, I glanced through the field and made a prediction --- the top four finishers would be First Dude, Lookin at Lucky, Jackson Bend, and Yawanna Twist, in any order. Yes, First Dude was setting a solid pace, but I felt that he had a way better chance at hanging on the Super Saver did.

With three furlongs to go, I saw those red colors moving on the outside. Caracortado was moving with them. Super Saver was being asked for more but he wasn't responding. And First Dude still had the lead! Jackson Bend was in the mix, and perhaps the best horse, but he was still looking for racing room. And Yawanna Twist was right there as well!

Into the homestretch and four horses put together a thrilling duel to the wire. At the eighth pole, it was Lookin at Lucky on top by a half length. First Dude was refusing to give up and still had a chance. Yawanna Twist had suddenly appeared from nowhere and was closely willingly, while Jackson Bend had finally found some racing room and was coming on strongly.

Down to the finish they come and I'm cheering for Lookin at Lucky and Jackson Bend. Yawanna Twist was beginning to tire, and First Dude just wouldn't give up. But in the end, Lookin at Lucky proved once again how tough he was, hanging on for a three quarter length victory. The final time was 1:55.47. First Dude held off a rallying Jackson Bend for second, while the latter closed strongly for third. And he probably would have won if he had found racing room a bit sooner.

But he didn't. So Lookin at Lucky came through and gave Bob Baffert his fifth Preakness victory, his ninth win in a Triple Crown race overall, and his first since War Emblem's Preakness win in 2002.

And so now I guess that it is time to compare my Preakness picks to the actual order of finish.

Here are the results. . .

1 Lookin at Lucky
2 First Dude
3 Jackson Bend
4 Yawanna Twist
5 Dublin
6 Paddy O'Prado
7 Caracortado
8 Super Saver
9 Schoolyard Dreams
10 Aikenite
11 Pleasant Prince
12 Northern Giant

. . . and here were my "Official Picks". . .

1 Super Saver
2 Caracortado
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Jackson Bend
5 Dublin
6 Schoolyard Dreams
7 First Dude
8 Paddy O'Prado
9 Yawanna Twist
10 Pleasant Prince
11 Aikenite
12 Northern Giant

. . . my "Gut Feeling" picks. . .

1 Super Saver
2 Schoolyard Dreams
3 Caracortado
4 Aikenite
5 Pleasant Prince
6 Yawanna Twist
7 Dublin
8 Lookin at Lucky
9 Jackson Bend
10 Paddy O'Prado
11 First Dude
12 Northern Giant

. . . my "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks. . .

1 Yawanna Twist
2 Super Saver
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Caracortado
5 Dublin
6 Jackson Bend
7 Aikenite
8 Schoolyard Dreams
9 First Dude
10 Paddy O'Prado
11 Pleasant Prince
12 Northern Giant

. . . my "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" picks. . .

1 Super Saver
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 Aikenite
4 Lookin at Lucky (DH)
5 Yawanna Twist (DH)
6 Dublin
7 Schoolyard Dreams
8 Caracortado
9 First Dude
10 Pleasant Prince
11 Jackson Bend
12 Northern Giant

. . . and my "Random" picks.

1 Aikenite
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 First Dude
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Yawanna Twist
6 Jackson Bend
7 Dublin
8 Lookin at Lucky
9 Pleasant Prince
10 Super Saver
11 Caracortado
12 Northern Giant

My "Official Picks" actually weren't too bad. I had Dublin and Northern Giant in the right spots, and I was close with Pleasant Prince, Aikenite, Lookin at Lucky and Jackson Bend.

As I mentioned when I discussed the Preakness in a prior post, I loved First Dude and Yawanna Twist here, but I just couldn't put them in the top six. Obviously I should have, but I didn't. Oh well. . .

I don't think I will even discuss my "Gut Feeling" picks, as my gut feeling was dead wrong. It just goes to show that. . . that. . . hmm. . . well, I guess it doesn't show anything really.

Then there were my "Average Beyer Speed Figure" picks. They didn't do too bad, getting Dublin, Pleasant Prince, and Northern Giant in the right places, as well as being close on Lookin at Lucky and Schoolyard Dreams.

This brings us to my "Highest Beyer Speed Figure in Last Race" picks. It had Yawanna Twist in the right spot, dead heating for fourth, as well as Northern Giant, and it was close with Dublin, Caracortado, and Pleasant Prince, but it had a trifect the included the sixth, eighth, and tenth place finishers.

And then there were my "Random" picks, drawn out of a hat. In reality, however, the hat was my desk, where I had the names of all the entries written on pieces of paper. All I did was mix up those papers and pick them up at random. But anyway. . .

The random picks didn't do terribly. It predicted that Super Saver was going to run awful, and is actually had Northern Giant in the right spot. It was also close with Pleasant Prince, Dublin, Yawanna Twist, and First Dude. But it picked Aikenite to win. . .

So in conclusion, I shall point out a few interesting facts. First off, I posted five different lists of picks. All five of them had Northern Giant to run last. And Northern Giant ran last. . .

Secondly, I mentioned in a prior post that a horse who did not run in the Kentucky Derby runs well in the Preakness every year. This year, that horse was First Dude, who was coming out of the Blue Grass Stakes. It's a useful handicapping tool if you can identify which of those fresh horses will run well. Of course, if you can't, then it's useless, but whatever.

And finally, I'm going to hand out a couple of awards.

The award for best run in the Preakness goes to Dublin, who came from nowhere to finish fifth despite the terrible start. Congratulations to Dublin and his connections! Perhaps he will finish off that run next time.

The award for best losing effort goes to First Dude, who set brilliant fractions and still hung on for second.

And finally, the award for the saddest story goes to Garrett Gomez, who had ridden Lookin at Lucky in all of his prior starts before being replaced by Martin Garcia. Perhaps Lookin at Lucky wouldn't have won without Martin. But I will always remember that Garrett Gomez might have won his first Triple Crown race if not for the jockey switch. . .

And one last thing. I really enjoyed watching NBC's broadcast of the race. I thought they did great.

BLACK-EYED SUSAN RECAP

This was to be the race. After failing in the Fantasy Stakes and the Kentucky Oaks, Tidal Pool was due for her first stakes win. And how could you not pull for her? Her jockey is Calvin Borel and her trainer is D. Wayne Lukas. Her running style suited the track and she looked ready for a big win. The only thing that could stand in her way was the fact that she had raced only two weeks prior, and racing luck. There was nothing that could be done about the two weeks, but because of her running style, all she had to do to avoid traffic was break sharply and take the lead.

At the start, Tidal Pool stumbled and was unable to get to the lead. I knew the race was over for her, but I cheered for her anyway.

So in the early going, it was Khancord Kid who took the lead. She was followed closely by Acting Happy, Harissa, and Tidal Pool. Acting Happy, a 10-1 shot, was getting a perfect trip on the outside, while Harissa was being very stubborn about rating. Then it was two lengths back to C C's Pal, followed by Seeking the Title, Diva Delite, No Such Word, and Patriot Miss.

So after fractions of :23 3/5 and :47 2/5, it was still Khancord Kid. Acting Happy was right there, and Tidal Pool was still on the outside. Harissa had finally settled and dropped back a bit, and C C's Pal was moving closer. Seeking the Title, Diva Delite, No Such Word, and Patriot Miss were still trailing.

Then, with three and a half furlongs to go, things began to happen. And they weren't good. Diva Delite was making a run on the outside and clipped heels with C C's Pal, falling and throwing her jockey Julien Leparoux. Seeking the Title was unable to get out of the way in time and stumbled over Diva Delite, throwing Kent Desormeaux. Fortunately, both horses and both riders were okay. Julien Leparoux had a slight injury and will be resting for about two weeks, but otherwise everyone was fine.

Anyway, this left seven runners to dual it out, really six if you exclude Patriot Miss, who was hopelessly beaten by this point.

So into the homestretch they came and Tidal Pool had a narrow lead, but Acting Happy was moving strongly and had the lead at the eighth pole. No Such Word was closing strongly late, but was unable to get up for the win. Under the wire first was Acting Happy, with Jose Lezcano riding her. No Such Word finished second, Tidal Pool third, Harissa fourth, Khancord Kid fifth, C C's Pal sixth, Patriot Miss seventh. Seeking the Title and Diva Delite did not finish.

So here are the results. . .

1 Acting Happy
2 No Such Word
3 Tidal Pool
4 Harissa
5 Khancord Kid
6 C C's Pal
7 Patriot Miss

. . . versus my picks. (minus Seeking the Title and Diva Delite)

1 Tidal Pool
2 Harissa
3 Patriot Miss
4 C C's Pal
5 No Such Word
6 Acting Happy
7 Khancord Kid

As you can see, my longshot pick Patriot Miss did not pull through. Acting Happy proved me wrong and ran a great race, and so did No Such Word.

So congratulation to Acting Happy and her connections! It was an exciting race and I enjoyed it greatly. I can't wait to see where these fillies run next.

Oh, and one last note, I would pay attention to the three year old filly Streaker. Trained by Shug McGaughey, who trained Personal Ensign, the filly beat Acting Happy by three quarters of a length in an allowance race earlier this year. Acting Happy used that race as her final prep for the Black Eyed Susan. The Acorn Stakes is quite possibly Streaker's next start, so watch out.

PREAKNESS STAKES & BLACK EYED SUSAN STAKES UNDERCARD RECAPS

Once again, I had my picks for the undercard of the two big races, and I though I would repost my selections along with the results of each race and see how I did. I'll begin with the Preakness Stakes undercard.

MAY 15th

Race 1
Winner - Primary Witness
My Pick - Primary Witness

Race 2
Winner - Virsito
My Pick - Virsito

Race 3
Winner - Convoy Ahead
My Pick - Convoy Ahead

Race 4
Winner - Northpoint Costas
My Pick - Northpoint Costas

Race 5
Winner - Lighthouse Sound
My Pick - Macho Chick (ran 2nd)

Race 6
Winner - Comodero
My Pick - Comodero

Race 7
Winner - Beau Choice
My Pick - Beau Choice

Race 8
Winner - Blame
My Pick - Blame

Race 9
Winner - Rainbow View
My Pick - Rainboy View

Race 10
Winner - Taqarub
My Pick - Roaring Lion (ran 2nd)

Race 11
Winner - Strike a Deal
My Pick - Just as Well (ran 2nd)

Race 12
Winner - Lookin at Lucky
My Pick - Super Saver (ran 8th)

Race 13
Winner - Granted Ruler
My Pick - Granted Ruler

MAY 14th

Race 1
Winner - Call of a Lion
My Pick - Yogi'ssplashofgold (ran 3rd)

Race 2
Winner - With Purpose
My Pick - Swear Alliegence (ran 2nd)

Race 3
Winner - My Bullet
My Pick - California Cool (ran 9th)

Race 4
Winner - Honor in Peace
My Pick - Honor in Peace

Race 5
Winner - Alwaysacontest
My Pick - Back to Therapy (ran 2nd)

Race 6
Winner - Starfish Bay
My Pick - Canadian Ballet (ran 5th)

Race 7
Winner - Squabble
My Pick - Dixieland Melody (ran 3rd)

Race 8
Winner - Central City
My Pick - Hero's Reward (ran 3rd)

Race 9
Winner - Vindy City
My Pick - Vindy City

Race 10
Winner - Phosphorescent
My Pick - Oh My Me My (ran 9th)

Race 11
Winner - Lights Off Annie
My Pick - Lights Off Annie

Race 12
Winner - Acting Happy
My Pick - Tidal Pool (ran 3rd)

Race 13
Winner - Joharmony
My Pick - Joharmony

So I didn't do too badly. I was doing extremely well on Preakness Day, that is, until the big races right before the Preakness came along. The Preakness itself was actually the only race where my pick ran worse than second!

I didn't do quite as well on Black Eyed Susan day, but I still managed to pick four winners. Not to bad, considering I had never heard of many of the runners.

And now that I have recapped all those races, I shall go back through to May 2nd and mention a few interesting races that I failed to bring up in any of my last Triple Crown Countdowns, beginning with the May 2nd New York Stallion Park Avenue Stakes for three year old fillies.

OTHER RACE RECAPS

The six and a half furlong dirt race at Belmont Park had a very heavy favorite in Franny Freud. Sent off as the 1-4 favorite, she proved that she was the best horse by overwhelming her five rivals while easing up across the wire seven and three quarter lengths in front.

She is without a doubt a filly to watch. She could even upset Blind Luck for champion 3yo filly honors later this year if she keeps running like this.

The race was nothing more than a fast workout for her. Sitting just off the pace set by So N So, she quickly blew past that rival and was never challenged. So N So ran an excellent race to just hold off Freud's Notebook for second, while Positive Pitch, Raffie's Rose, and Ommadon's Angle trailed the field. The final time was 1:16 flat.

Then there was the New York Stallion Times Square Stakes. The exact same race as the latter one except for colts, the heavy favorite was General Maximus. Although he wasn't quite as heavy a favorite as Franny Freud, and although he wasn't quite as impressive as the filly, he still proved he was the best, winning by three and a quarter lengths in wire-to-wire fashion. Make Note, the third choice, came home second best, nearly seven lengths clear of Game Token. Hittin the Note, Cajun Jet, Ommadon's Answer, Zealous Boy, and Reading Group trailed the field.

Then there was the Senorita Stakes, a one mile turf event for three year old fillies. Held at Hollywood Park, the pretty heavy favorite was City to City. Andina was the second choice, and Cozi Rosie the third choice. In the end, those three filled the top three spots, but not in the order that their odds said they would.

In the early going, it was I'mneverwrong who was rushed to the early lead. She was followed closely by City to City, while Andina and Cozi Rosie sat back in fifth and sixth.

After three quarters of a mile in 1:11 3/5, I'mneverwrong was beginning to fade and City to City was moving up to take the lead. Cozi Rosie made a strong move to pass Andina and Pulpit Magic while moving into the fourth position while only two lengths off the lead. Andina was another length and a quarter behind her racing in sixth.

Down the stretch they came and City to City had a head in front. I'mneverwrong was trying to stay with her but was tiring. Cozi Rosie continued her rally and took the lead at the sixteenth pole and drew off to a one length victory. Andina just nosed City to City for second, while Triple Cream, who had raced third for much of the race, finished a neck behind them in fourth. It was another length and a half back to I'mneverwrong, who was beaten by only two and three quarter lengths, while Hasty and Pulpit Magic trailed the field.

So in conclusion, Cozi Rosie is definitely a filly to watch.

This brings us to the Indiana Downs Distaff Stakes, a one mile turf event for three year old fillies at Indiana Downs. The slight favorite was Go Ask Alex, a daughter of Afleet Alex, while the second choice was Lisa's Kitten, a daughter of Kitten's Joy. In the end, Lisa's Kitten was never a threat, but Go Ask Alex turned in an extremely dominating performance.

At the start, Sing Sing Cinderela broke fastest, but Go Ask Alex was rushed up to take the lead before a quarter mile had been run. Helen Belen raced in second, while Prima Donna Pirate, Ms. Thanksgiving, Sing Sing Cinderela, Lisa's Kitten, and Shakaleena trailed the field.

After a solid opening half mile of :46 3/5, Go Ask Alex was still the leader by one length. Helen Belen continued to pressure her, while Ms. Thanksgiving had moved up a bit, while Prima Donna Pirate had dropped back to fourth, but was still a good five lengths in front of Sing Sing Cinderela. Nobody else was in the mix.

After three quarters in 1:10 2/5, it was time for Go Ask Alex to fade. But she didn't. Helen Belen made every effort to get to her, but Go Ask Alex was just too good. The filly drew off under a steady drive to win by seven and a quarter while breaking the track record. Prima Donn Pirate rallied for second, while Helen Belen held on to third. Lisa's Kitten finished sixth while never threatening, beaten by a good fourteen and a half lengths.

Then there was the Texas Stallion Stakes out at Lone Star Park in Texas. For three year old colts and geldings at a mile and a sixteenth, the heavy favorite was Coyote Legend, and he deserved it. The colt had been doing extremely well, and had already beaten older horses. Three year olds? No problem for him.

As the gates opened, April's Picture got out fastest of all, but quickly dropped back to last, leaving Royal Hay Patch to set the early pace, along with El Oso. Those to cut fractions of :24 2/5 and :49 flat while Coyote Legend bided his time in fourth.

Then Coyote Legend decided to make his move. He quickly blew past the leaders and had a half length lead with five sixteenths to go. El Oso and Royal Hay Patch were still stubbornly sticking with him, and Wild Mudder was in with a chance as well, but Coyote Legend was just too good for them. Under strong urging, he drew off to a seven and a quarter length victory, getting the distance in 1:45 2/5. Royal Hay Path hung on for second, while Wild Mudder rallied for third. He was followed by April's Picture, El Oso, Winding Road, and Big Texas Daddy. The latter was actually sent off as the second choice, but failed to threaten.

This brings us to the Dwyer Stakes, which I discussed in detail in my May 7th post. My two favorites were Fly Down and Drosselmeyer, but unfortunately, I picked the wrong horse.

The one turn mile and an eighth race at Belmont Park was the local prep for next month's Belmont Stakes. The heavy favorite was Drosselmeyer. Fly Down was the second choice, with Remand and Soaring Empire given a chance as well. But in the end, it was all about Fly Down.

At the start, Turf Melody and Soaring Empire raced up to take the early lead, with Carnivore right behind them. Unfortunately, there was a very stiff wind blowing down the backstretch right in the faces, compromising any chances that they may have had. Especially when they went :23 4/5 and :47 3/5 for the opening fractions. Remand was there in fourth.

Meanwhile, Drosselmeyer was in behind horses racing fifth, with Codoy sixth and Fly Down was biding his time in last.

Then Fly Down made his move. With a very quick move, he blew past the entire field with a four wide run and poured it on. Drosselmeyer ran into a bit of traffic on the final turn, but when he did get out, he was unable to match strides with the winner.

The final winning margin was six lengths. The final time was 1:50 1/5. He is trained by Nick Zito. On to the Belmont Stakes.

He will without a doubt contend in the big one.

So here are the results. . .

1 Fly Down
2 Drosselmeyer
3 Remand
4 Soaring Empire
5 Carnivore
6 Turf Melody
7 Codoy

. . . versus my picks.

1 Drosselmeyer
2 Fly Down
3 Turf Melody
4 Soaring Empire
5 Remand
6 Carnivore
7 Codoy

Well. . . I had Soaring Empire in the right spot! I was cheering hard for Turf Melody, but he had too much to do running into the wind. The top three finishers all came from behind, which is not surprising. So overall, I'd say it was a great race.

And one final note, Drosselmeyer, who finished second, will continue on to the Belmont but will be ridden for the first time by Mike Smith, who will replace Kent Desormeaux.

And then there was the Lone Star Derby, another race I discussed in detail a couple weeks ago. In the mile and a sixteenth event for three year olds, Game On Dude, who was not the morning line favorite but was sent off as the slight favorite at post time, proved he deserved the status.

Although the race turned up a bit lighter than in recent years, it was still a fascinating race. Could Henshn Hero, the second choice, go the distance? Was Game On Dude good enough? And what about Wando Redd? What was Gilded Woodman doing here?

Those questions were answered in just under a minute and forty-five seconds.

In the early going, Henshin Hero and Wando Redd were both sent to the lead, so fans got to see the the speed dual that they anticipated. Game On Dude sat just off of them in third, followed by Thatlleaveamark, Crider, and Gilded Woodman.

After fractions of :22 4/5 and :46 1/5, the positions were unchanged. As a matter of fact, the only difference was that Crider had pulled farther away from Gilded Woodman.

After six furlongs in 1:11 flat, Game on Dude began his move. He swept past Wando Redd and Henshin Hero to take the lead. He continued to pour it on and won by four and a half lengths. Crider came from far back to finish second, while Henshin Hero finished third. Wando Redd was fourth, while Thatlleaveamark finished fifth. Gilded Woodman finished last, beaten a total of seventy-three and three quarter lengths.

So here are the results. . .

1 Game On Dude
2 Crider
3 Henshin Hero
4 Wando Redd
5 Thatlleaveamark
6 Gilded Woodman

. . . versus my picks.

1 Crider
2 Henshin Hero
3 Game On Dude
4 Wando Redd
5 Thatlleaveamark
6 Gilded Woodman

So I got the bottom three right, and I was close on everyone else, but I failed to pick the winner. Oh well.

Interestingly, Game On Dude will be using this race as a prep for the Belmont Stakes.

Now, it's starting to get late and if I'm going to have this up before the day's races are run I'm going to have to speed this up.

The next race of note was a mile and a sixteenth allowance race at Churchill Downs. For three year olds, the slight favorite was Prince Will I Am, but my pick was the second choice Colizeo. Although Prince Will I Am closed very strongly, Colizeo held him off to win by a length and a quarter. Down With Dixie was third. So I actually hit the trifecta in that one. Berberis, the third choice, finished last of eight.

Then there was the Railbird Stakes at Hollywood Park. A seven furlong grade III for three year old fillies, the favorite was Switch. Once again, the favorite closed fast but was unable to catch the second choice Tanda, who held her off to win by a half length. All Due Respect, the third choice, finished third.

This brings us to the Tom Ridge Stakes out at Presque Isle Downs. The favorite was Strapping Groom, but although he got a perfect stalking position, he faded to finish last. As it turns out, a 20-1 shot Rockin' Rockstar just held off my pick Flamin' Hot to win by a neck. The final time for the six furlong event was 1:08 2/5. A very interesting race. Perhaps a champion sprinter will come out of this one.

Then there was the Jim Murray Handicap at Hollywood Park. At a mile and a half on turf for three year olds and up, the only three uear old running was Alphie's Bet. I didn't handicap the race, but I liked Acclamation, who was sent off at about 15-1.

As it turns out, Acclamation raced out to a five length lead, which grew to eight, which grew to ten, which shrunk to five, which ended up at seven and a half as he blew his opponents off their feet. The quarter mile fractions? :24 4/5, :24 3/5, :25 2/5, :24 2/5, :23 3/5, and :23 2/5. Incredible. No one else ever had a chance.

As for Alphie's Bet, he finished last in a disappointing performance. Falcon Rock ran second, a neck in front of Rendezvous, who was another neck in front of favored Scintillo. Unusual Suspect ran fifth.

And finally, there was the Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs. A seven furlong event for three year olds, the favorite was Cool Bullet, but my pick was Thiskyhasnolimit, who was actually won of my earlier picks for the Triple Crown. In the end, it was close, but Thiskyhasnolimit proved best by three quarters of a length, just getting up to defeat Cool Bullet. Privilaged finished third, followed by Vow to Wager, Silver Craft, and Southern Danger. So I picked the order of finish, even though I forgot to post it here!

Now, as much as I would like to discuss this weekend's races in great detail, I'm afraid that I am out of time. So I will have to merely post my picks without any discussion. : (

AMERICAN 1,000 GUINEAS

1 Bay to Bay
2 Go Ask Alex
3 Queen of the Creek
4 Orchestrator
5 Kilmore Quay
6 Chantilly Nayla
7 Lucky Lass
8 Besitos

ARLINGTON CLASSIC STAKES

1 Workin for Hops
2 Gleam of Hope
3 Alfarabi
4 Our Champion
5 Mister Marti Gras
6 Family Foundation
7 Summer Movie
8 Indy Scent

LAZARO BARRERA MEMORIAL STAKES

1 Concord Point
2 Macias
3 Skipshot
4 Hawaiian Springs
5 Smiling Tiger
6 Domonation
7 Dixie Trouper
8 Mr Tokyo
9 Big Man Has a Sign

And that's all for now! I'll be back later in the week with the results and more picks, but for now I'm done. Enjoy the races!

-Keelerman

LOOKIN AT LUCKY WON!!!!

Lookin at Lucky finally got lucky and came home a winner in the Preakness Stakes! Congratulations to Lookin at Lucky, Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, and his owners!

Here is the complete order of finish (I believe). . .

1 Lookin at Lucky
2 First Dude
3 Jackson Bend
4 Yawanna Twist
5 Dublin
6 Caracortado
7 Paddy O'Prado
8 Super Saver
9 Schoolyard Dreams
10 Aikenite
11 Pleasant Prince
12 Northern Giant

It was an exciting race! I'll be back later with the details!

-Keelerman

PREAKNESS UPDATE 6

Odds update: Lookin at Lucky has dropped to 2-1, and now he and Super Saver are the co favorites.

Will D. Wayne Lukas get his record fourteenth Triple Crown race victory? He has two chances, but he hasn't won one since Commendable in 2000. Can Super Saver win the Preakness and sit on the edge of the Triple Crown? We'll find out in just a few minutes.

It's nearly time! Just two minutes away! The starting gate is in place, and all the horses are ready. So close!

In just a few minutes. Soon, the 2010 Preakness race will be in the history books. Who will win? We shall see.

The horses are loading into the gate!!! Super Saver doesn't want to go in!!!

I'll be back soon!!!!

-Keelerman

PREAKNESS UPDATE 5

Odds update - Super Saver has risen to 2-1, but Lookin at Lucky is still 5-2.

The riders are on their horses. There's Super Saver! Caracortado looks a little nervous, and Paddy O'Prado looks good.

Calvin Borel looks really, really happy and excited. It's nearly time!

There goes Aikenite. He looks good. Schoolyard Dreams also looks good and calm. Pleasant Prince looks a bit excited, but not too bad.

There's Northern Giant now. He looks great, and there is Yawanna Twist now. He looks a bit anxious and nervous. Jackson Bend is on his toes, Lookin at Lucky looks good, and now there's Super Saver. He is being a bit fussy and naughty. Caracortado is playing with the lead pony, and now Paddy O'Prado is on the scene. He looks good, but a little bit nervous.

And there is First Dude. He looks good. And finally, here is Dublin. He looks very calm.

It's so close! It's six minutes until post time!

-Keelerman

PREAKNESS UPDATE 4

They are now taking pictures of the jockeys. Paddy O'Prado has dropped to 7-1, Super Saver is still 9-5, and Lookin at Lucky is still 5-2. Dublin is still 9-1.

Mike and Bob are about to announce there picks. Mike likes Super Saver, and First Dude. Bob likes Lookin at Lucky, Yawanna Twist, and Dublin.

Now the jockeys are walking down the stairs to meet with their trainers and getting ready for the Preakness.

They just finished interviewing D. Wayne Lukas. He thinks that Northern Giant will run well.

Mike Battaglia thinks that Super Saver looks great.

It's now just sixteen minutes to post. . .

-Keelerman

PREAKNESS UPDATE 3

They are now interviewing Todd Pletcher. He says that the last two weeks have been great. Talking about Aikenite, he says that he would be really happy if he won the Preakness for Dogwood Stable, who have supported him since he became a trainer.

Now they are interviewing Nick Zito. He doesn't think that Jackson Bend ran his race in the Derby and thinks he'll run better here.

There's Dale Romans now. He hopes that Paddy O'Prado gets a better trip this time. He is also training First Dude.

Now they're interviewing Mike Machowsky. He is very relaxed and happy that here is here.

Now there are interviewing Derek Ryan. He's hoping that Schoolyard Dreams rebounds today. He says that he is not a three week horse and prefers to race once every six weeks or so. He thinks that Schoolyard Dreams is coming into the race the right way.

There's Kent Desormeaux now. He says that Paddy O'Prado was tiring in the Derby and he rode him as well as he could, and he sounds confident for today's race.

PREAKNESS UPDATE 3

Now Bob Baffert is being interviewed. . . they're talking about replacing Garrett Gomez.

Now they are interviewing Garrett Gomez. He is pleased with Dublin's last workout and he has a lot of confidence in him.

Aikenite is now 36-1. Northern Giant is 27-1, Schoolyard Dreams is now 13-1, Pleasant Prince 23-1, Jackson Bend 11-1, Yawanna Twist is 15-1, Lookin at Lucky 5-2, Super Saver 9-5, Caracortado 18-1, Paddy O'Prado 8-1, First Dude 26-1, and Dublin 9-1.

Now Calvin Borel is being interviewed. He thinks that the rail is a bit deeper than at Churchill Downs and he may not be down there. He also thinks that Super Saver will be a bit closer to the lead. He may not put Super Saver on the rail this time.

-Keelerman

DIXIE STAKES

They're loading into the gate for the grade II Dixie Stakes now on the Preakness undercard. I'm going with Just as Well, but I'll be cheering for Nicanor.

They're off!

. . . Just as Well came running late, but it was Strike the Deal who went wire-to-wire. I'm not sure what place Nicanor got.

I sort of can't believe that Aikenite is 35-1 right now. I don't believe he is going to finish last, actually, I think that he could hit the board.

And then there is First Dude at 25-1. I think that he should be 15-1. He has a big chance at winning.

Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky are still 2-1.

It's getting closer. . .

PREAKNESS UPDATE 2

It's 76 degrees at Pimlico right now, with a fast track. It looks really, really nice there.

Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver are the co-favorites at 2-1 right now. Dublin is 10-1, and Schoolyard Dreams is 12-1.

Gary and Tom are on TV right now discussing the Preakness. They are discussing Super Saver, Paddy O'Prado, and Jackson Bend.

Mike Battaglia thinks that Paddy O'Prado and First Dude can upset the Preakness.

Kenny Rice is talking about Caracortado. He thinks he looks really nice.

Paul Atkinson is being interviewed right now. He has never ridden in a Triple Crown race before. He will be riding Caracortado.

-Keelerman

PREAKNESS UPDATE

It's only about one and a half hours until the Preakness begins! Can Super Saver win the second leg of the Triple Crown and advance to the Belmont Stakes with a chance at glory? We'll find out soon.

The NBC broadcast began about fifteen minutes ago and it's been great so far. I haven't seen any live footage of the horses yet, but I'm sure that will come soon.

I wonder if they will show the Dixie Stakes? That would be really cool. I'll be cheering for Barbaro's brother Nicanor, but I would also love to see Just as Well win. But Wesley has a big chance as well with Javier Castellano. It would be a great race to see.

-Keelerman

UPDATE --- WINSLOW HOMER WORKS OUT

Good news! Winslow Homer, who was injured after winning the grade III Holy Bull Stakes last month, has returned to training! He breezed a half mile today at Delaware Park, getting the distance in 52 2/5 on a "Good" dirt track! Perhaps he will race again soon!

-Keelerman

A PREAKNESS INTERVIEW WITH DAN J

Once again, Dan J has returned to my blog to answer some more of my questions. Today, we shall discuss the Preakness Stakes and get his thoughts on the runners, as well as his top three picks. Here we go!

Q: First off, we'll talk quickly about the Kentucky Derby. What did you think of the results?

A: I was a bit surprised that Super Saver was able to hang on for the win. All through the homestretch I kept expecting him to fade, but he never did. However, I wasn't surprised to see Ice Box coming at the end. Paddy O'Prado was a bit of a surprise as well.

Q: What do you think of Super Saver?

A: I think he's good--I think he has a good shot at winning today.

Q: The Preakness drew a tough field of twelve and none of them can be ignored. What do you think of the beaten Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky in this race?

A: I've always liked Lookin at Lucky, and I still do, but I just have a feeling he won't be winning today.

Q: Do you think that the jockey change will help?

A: I don't think that will make any significant difference.

Q: You liked Dublin for the Kentucky Derby. What do you think of him here?

A: I like him here. He was pretty wide for the whole Derby trip, and I think it cost him. The Preakness with its smaller field may just do the trick. However, he drew gate twelve. I'm hoping he can kind of drift back at the start and secure a spot closer inside.

Q: Paddy O'Prado, third in the Derby, is back for another try at Super Saver. He also has Kent Desormeaux, a top rider in Maryland for many years, on his back. What do you think of his chances?

A: I think this guy has a big chance at upsetting Super Saver. He was nearly second in the Derby.

Q: Two horses who are being mentioned a lot as potential spoilers are Schoolyard Dreams and Caracortado. What do you think of them?

A: I watched Schoolyard Dreams earlier in the year and liked him. I'm less impressed with Caracortado. But I don't think either of them will pull off the win.

Q: What do you think of Pleasant Prince, who will be making his fourth start in eight weeks?

A: He's an interesting horse, and I like his post position. We should keep an eye on him.

Q: Are there any longshots in here that you think can hit the board?

A: Jackson Bend.

Q: Finally, can you give us your Preakness trifecta?

A: 1. Super Saver. 2. Paddy O'Prado. 3. Dublin. But good luck to all the horses!

Thanks for the interview Dan J! In less the twenty-four hours, we will know if Super Saver has any chance at becoming racing's twelfth Triple Crown winner. We'll both be cheering for him!

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- THE PREAKNESS STAKES

I can hardly believe it. Already it is time to discuss the Preakness Stakes. Will Super Saver sweep the second leg of the series and be poised to claim the Triple Crown? Or will one of the newcomers smash those dreams? Can Lookin at Lucky rebound from the nightmare trip he suffered in the Derby, or will he run into trouble again? Will Dublin finally finish off his rally and give D. Wayne Lukas his sixth Preakness victory? In just over twenty-four hours we will know.

Let's take a look at the runners.

1. Aikenite
Birthdate - January
Sire - Yes It's True (By It Is True)
Dam - Silverlado (By Saint Ballado)
Owner - Dogwood Stable
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Javier Castellano
Last Race - Derby Trial, finished 2nd
Pros --- He has more than proven that he likes dirt, he has been fairly consistent, and he has the right running style for his post position. He has Javier Castellano, who has been riding very well at Pimlico, for a jockey.
Cons --- Pimlico is a speed favoring track and he does not run well when close to the pace, he may have to go very wide on the final turn, and he may not be as good as some of the others in the race.
Pedigree --- A little iffy for a mile and three sixteenths, but it should take him there. His broodmare sire has sired some good distance horses, but his sire wasn't a very good distance horse.

2. Schoolyard Dreams
Birthdate - May
Sire - Stephen Got Even (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Hear This (By Prospector's Music)
Owner - Eric Fein & Triple Diamond Stables
Trainer - Derek Ryan
Jockey - Eiber Coa
Last Race - Wood Memorial, finished 4th
Pros - Finished in front of the Derby winner Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby, had excuses in the Wood Memorial, and showed an excellent turn of foot in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Cons - He always makes a move but tires in the final sixteenth and is unable to maintain it. His running style might not suit this track.
Pedigree - Should get him a mile and three sixteenths.

3. Pleasant Prince
Birthdate - February
Sire - Indy Kind (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Archduchess (By Pleasant Tap)
Trainer - Wesley Ward
Jockey - Julien Leparoux
Last Race - Derby Trial, finished 3rd
Pros - Has shown the ability to race frequently in a short period of time, missed by a nose to Ice Box in the Florida Derby and Ice Box went on to run second in the Kentucky Derby, and has an excellent jockey in the saddle.
Cons - He has run poorly in his two races since the Florida Derby, and has yet to run a really good race at any track other than Gulfstream Park. His running style does not suit the Preakness.
Pedigree - It will get him a mile and three sixteenths, and probably a mile and a half too.

4. Northern Giant
Birthdate - March
Sire - Giant's Causeway (By Storm Cat)
Dam - Jessi Take Charge (By War Chant)
Trainer - D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey - Terry Thompson
Last Race - Arkansas Derby, finished 9th
Pros - His running style suits the track, he has an excellent post position, he has run very well on dirt, he had excuses in the Arkansas Derby, and his trainer has won the Preakness five times.
Cons - He is unproven against top competition and he may have just a bit of stamina limitation.
Pedigree - Questionable, but his sire is Giant's Causeway, so that should help.

5. Yawanna Twist
Birthdate - February
Sire - Yonaguska (By Cherokee Run)
Dam - Twist and Pop (By Oliver's Twist)
Trainer - Richard Dutrow
Jockey - Edgar Prado
Last Race - Illinois Derby, finished 2nd
Pros - Has never finished worse than second in four starts, his running style suits the track, and he drew a great post position.
Cons - He has yet to prove himself against top competition, and has been running fairly slow final times.
Pedigree - Very questionable at a mile and three sixteenths.

6. Jackson Bend
Birthdate - February 11th
Sire - Hear No Evil
Dam - Sexy Stockings
Owner - Robert V. LaPenta and Fred J. Brei
Trainer - Nick Zito
Jockey - Mike Smith
Last Race - Kentucky Derby, finished 12th
Pros - Has earned a Beyer speed figure of 100, he has been unbelievably consistent, and he never gives up. His running style suits the track.
Cons - Has severe stamina questions.
Pedigree - Questionable at a mile and three sixteenths. His sire, Hear No Evil, could barely go a mile and a sixteenth. But his broodmare sire, Tabasco Cat, was a Preakness/Belmont winner.

7. Lookin at Lucky
Birthdate - May 27th
Sire - Smart Strike (By Mr. Prospector)
Dam - Private Feeling (By Belong to Me)
Owner - Karl Watson Michael E Pegram and Paul Weitman
Trainer - Bob Baffert
Jockey - Garrett Gomez
Last Race --- Kentucky Derby, finished 6th
Pros --- He has been very consistent, and he has a solid two year old foundation. He is a three time grade I winner and just keeps on running. He has overcome traffic in every race, and although he was sixth in the Derby, he ran quite well after being severely bumped at the start. He has a good post position.
Cons --- He has slight stamina limitations, he eases himself up when he takes the lead, and he needs a perfect trip to run his best race. His running style doesn't suit the track very well.
Pedigree --- Should get him a mile and three sixteenths, but not any further.

8. Super Saver
Birthdate - March 18th
Sire - Maria's Mon (By Wavering Monarch)
Dam - Supercharger (By A.P. Indy)
Owner - WinStar Farm LLC
Trainer - Todd Pletcher
Jockey - Calvin Borel
Last Race --- Kentucky Derby, finished 1st
Pros --- He is the Kentucky Derby winner, his running style suits the track, he has been improving in every race, and he should love the slightly shorter distance. He can also adapt to any pace scenario. He will get a mile and three sixteenths.
Cons --- He won't be racing at his favorite track, (Churchill Downs) and might not be able to get to the rail as quickly as he did in the Derby.
Pedigree --- He can go this distance without a doubt.

9. Caracortado
Birthdate - May
Sire - Cat Dreams (By Storm Cat)
Dam - Mons Venus (By Maria's Mon)
Owner - Blahut Racing & Lo Hi Racing
Trainer - Michael Machowsky
Jockey - Paul Atkinson
Last Race - Santa Anita Derby, finished 4th
Pros - He has been very consistent and had plenty of excuses in the Santa Anita Derby. Comes into the race off of a six week layoff, so he should be fresh and ready. He has won over dirt before and his running style suits Pimlico. He looks like a horse who can improve drastically on dirt.
Cons - He is unproven on dirt against the best three year olds, and his jockey has never ridden in a Triple Crown race before.
Pedigree - Excellent. He will go a mile and three sixteenths.

10. Paddy O'Prado
Birthdate - February 15th
Sire - El Prado (By Sadler Wells)
Dam - Fun House (Prized)
Owner - Donegal Racing
Trainer - Dale Romans
Jockey - Kent Desormeaux
Last Race - Kentucky Derby, finished 3rd
Pros - He has an excellent pedigree, he has Kent Desormeaux as a rider, he appears to be at his best on the dirt, and he seems to be improving.
Cons - He does have some stamina limitations, and he doesn't have the greatest of post positions. He is still unproven on a fast dirt track.
Pedigree --- He should be able to go a mile and three sixteenths.

11. First Dude
Birthdate - March
Sire - Stephen Got Even (By A.P. Indy)
Dam - Run Sarah Run (By Smart Strike)
Owner - Donald R Dizney
Trainer - Dale Romans
Jockey - Ramon Dominguez
Last Race - Blue Grass Stakes, finished 3rd
Pros - He is more than proven on dirt, he has been training well, and his running style suits the track. He has a top jockey riding him and looks ready to run his best race, and he has only finished worse than third once. He has never been beaten by more than six and a quarter lengths.
Cons - He has drawn a poor post position, he may not be as good as some of the others in the race, and has only a maiden win from six starts.
Pedigree - Should take him a mile and three sixteenths.

12. Dublin
Birthdate - April 4th
Sire - Afleet Alex (By Northern Afleet)
Dam - Classy Mirage (By Storm Bird)
Owner - Robert C. Baker and William L. Mack
Trainer - D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey - Terry Thompson
Last Race - Arkansas Derby, finished 3rd
Pros - He made his run in the Kentucky Derby, he just made it on the far turn instead of in the homestretch. He has a very good pedigree and his trainer has won five Preaknesses. He will be ridden by top rider Garrett Gomez for the first time.
Cons - Hasn't won a race since last September, his run always seems to fall a bit short, and he has drawn the far outside. It's a lot to overcome.
Pedigree --- Excellent, classic pedigree. Of all the pedigrees of all the Preakness contenders, I like this one the best. It will get him a mile and a quarter, and probably beyond.

And so that completes my basic analysis. Now it's time to put that data into some kind of order that will pick the winner. . .

To begin, I shall list my random picks like I did last time. Although they were completely wrong, it was still fun to do.

The names are now in the hat. I am pulling out one name at a time. Here are the random picks. . .

1 Aikenite
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 First Dude
4 Schoolyard Dreams
5 Yawanna Twist
6 Jackson Bend
7 Dublin
8 Lookin at Lucky
9 Pleasant Prince
10 Super Saver
11 Caracortado
12 Northern Giant

Apparently the hat intends to hit some sort of monster trifecta or something.

Now the real analyzing begins.

Once again, before going into my real picks, I'm going to list what would happen if every horse ran back to their last Beyer speed figure, with the horse with the highest number winning and the horse with the lowest finishing last.

Here they are. . .

1 Super Saver
2 Paddy O'Prado
3 Aikenite
4 Lookin at Lucky (DH)
5 Yawanna Twist (DH)
6 Dublin
7 Schoolyard Dreams
8 Caracortado
9 First Dude
10 Pleasant Prince
11 Jackson Bend
12 Northern Giant

Somehow, I don't think so. But then again, I can see that happening.

Now let's take a closer look at the speed figures. Suppose we take Super Saver's speed figures for every race and average them out. Then we do this for every other horse. The horses with the highest average number would win. Let's see what happens when we do that.

1 Yawanna Twist
2 Super Saver
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Caracortado
5 Dublin
6 Jackson Bend
7 Aikenite
8 Schoolyard Dreams
9 First Dude
10 Paddy O'Prado
11 Pleasant Prince
12 Northern Giant

Very interesting. I can see it happening. Yawanna Twist is a very nice horse, but is he good enough to win?

And finally, before I post my picks, I'm going to mention one little thing I have noticed over the past ten years. Horses who did not run in the Kentucky Derby always manage to hit the board in the Preakness.

Think about it. In 2009, Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness. She had not run in the Derby. In 2008, Macho Again ran second and Icabad Crane ran third in the Preakness. They had not run in the Derby.

You can toss out 2007 as an odd year because the top three Derby finishers finished in the top three in the Preakness. You can toss it out because the top three finishers in both races were Curlin, Street Sense, and Hard Spun. Enough said.

Then in 2006, Bernardini won the Preakness. He had not run in the Derby. As well as that, Hemingway's Key ran third in the Preakness after skipping the Derby.

Go back to 2005 and you see more evidence. Scrappy T ran second in the Preakness after not running in the Derby. In 2004, Rock Hard Ten ran second to Smarty Jones after missing the Derby. And Eddington ran third in the Preakness. He hadn't run in the Derby either!

I could go back further, but I won't. You get the idea. Horses who skipped the Derby run well in the Preakness just about every year.

That said, it is now time for my picks.

Here they are. . . (drumroll. . .)

OFFICIAL PICKS

1 Super Saver
2 Caracortado
3 Lookin at Lucky
4 Jackson Bend
5 Dublin
6 Schoolyard Dreams
7 First Dude
8 Paddy O'Prado
9 Yawanna Twist
10 Pleasant Prince
11 Aikenite
12 Northern Giant

These Triple Crown races are extremely hard to pick. I mean really hard. But these are my thoughts. . .

Super Saver can do this. He ran a great race in the Derby and can handle this distance. His running style suits the track and can adapt to any pace scenario. He'll be tough to beat.

Caracortado is another horse I like. He ran a great race despite considerable traffic in the Santa Anita to finish fourth and looks ready to run his best race here tomorrow. Hopefully, Lookin at Lucky will at last get a good trip and run his race.

Jackson Bend should also be tough. The race suits his style and if he has the lead in the stretch, it's possible that no one can catch him.

Then there is Dublin. I love this colt, and would have put him in the top three if he had drawn a better post position, but I don't think he can do it from gate twelve. But he does have a good jockey, and I'll be cheering him on.

Of course, First Dude, Paddy O'Prado, and Yawanna Twist are horses I can see winning, but I just couldn't put in the top six. You can't include them all, but they can all run great races.

And then there is Schoolyard Dreams. He can win easily, but I just can't see it happening. We'll see what happens, but I think he'll get caught in traffic or tire or something. But I could be wrong.

And finally, here are my "Gut Feeling" picks. This is where I post my gut feelings on how each horse is going to run.

GUT FEELING PICKS

1 Super Saver
2 Schoolyard Dreams
3 Caracortado
4 Aikenite
5 Pleasant Prince
6 Yawanna Twist
7 Dublin
8 Lookin at Lucky
9 Jackson Bend
10 Paddy O'Prado
11 First Dude
12 Northern Giant

And now I have come to the end of my post. Will Super Saver win? I don't know. But I'll be cheering for him. And Dublin.

Here are the horses I will be cheering for the most.

1 Super Saver
2 Dublin
3 Caracortado

But I don't care who wins. It's going to be a great race. Enjoy!

-Keelerman

RESULTS OF THE BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES

The results are in. . .

1 Acting Happy
2 No Such Word
3 Tidal Pool
4 Harissa

But it was a roughly run race. I will be back with the details later.

-Keelerman

TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- THE BLACK-EYED SUSAN BC STAKES & UNDERCARD

It's hard to believe that it is already time to discuss the Preakness, Black-Eyed Susan, and their undercards. It seems like we just finished handicapping the Derby and it's still sort of sinking in.
But despite the way I feel, the entries are out for the Preakness and the other Pimlico stakes races and I may as well get started. I'll begin with Friday's races, and the first one I shall discuss will be the Black-Eyed Susan Breeders' Cup Stakes.

PIMLICO, MAY 14th

RACE 12 ---- BLACK-EYED SUSAN BREEDERS' CUP STAKES (gr. II)
Nine Furlongs (Dirt)

This race, which is very similar to the Kentucky Oaks, drew a fascinating field of nine that will be almost as fun to watch as the Preakness. It's going to be tough to figure out who the best horse in the race is, but I'll try my best to pick the winner.

To begin, there is the number one horse, No Such Word. The 7-2 morning line second choice, the daughter of Canadian Frontier won the grade II Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn Park back in March before running third behind Blind Luck and Tidal Pool in the Fantasy Stakes. She has a very good chance of winning here tomorrow, but does have questions to answer. She will carry 122 pounds. She will be ridden by Terry Thompson and is trained by Cindy Jones.

Then there is the number two horse, Seeking the Title. 5-1 on the morning line, the daughter of Seeking the Gold has many things going for her, including Kent Desormeaux, who was a top jockey at Pimlico for many years. She also gets to carry only 116 pounds. However, she comes into tomorrow's race off of a seven week layoff, as she has not raced since finishing in a dead-heat for third in the grade II Fair Grounds Oaks back in March. But she was only beaten three quarters of a length for the win, and it was only her third race, so she has the potential to run her best race tomorrow. She is trained by Dalles Stewart.

This brings us to the number three horse, Khancord Kid. The daughter of Lemon Drop Kid is 12-1 on the morning line and comes into the race off of a ten week layoff, having not started since winning the grade III Herecomesthebride Stakes on the turf at Gulfstream Park in early March. She could run a huge race off of that effort but has only raced on dirt once, in her first race. She ran seventh of eight, beaten nearly twenty-two lengths by the winner. Of course, I'm sure she has improved since then and should handle the dirt fine, but you never know. She will carry 122 pounds and will be ridden by Rajiv Marahj. She is trained by John C. Kimmel.

The number four horse could have a shot as well. Acting Happy, a daughter of Empire Maker, has only made three starts, winning her maiden race and running second in two allowance races. She has never raced at any track other than Gulfstream Park, and comes into the Black-Eyed Susan off of a seven week layoff, but looks ready to run an excellent race. Her last race wasn't great, but she was beaten only three quarters of a length by a horse that may end up in the Acorn Stakes next month, so she definitely has a chance. She will carry 116 pounds, will be ridden by Joze Lezcano, and is trained by Richard Dutrow. She is 10-1 on the morning line.

Then there is the number five horse, Harissa. The daughter of Afleet Alex is 5-1 on the morning line and has a huge shot at winning. Kept out of the Kentucky Oaks due to insufficient graded earnings, she has not raced in seven weeks but was very impressive in her last race, winning the Sunland Oaks in her first start on dirt by three and a half lengths while turning in a fairly good final time. She has finished in the top Tomorrow, she will carry 122 pounds, and will be ridden by Tyler Baze. She is trained by David Hofmans.

This brings us to the number six horse, Tidal Pool. The 8-5 morning line favorite, the daughter of Yankee Gentleman finished third in the Kentucky Oaks two weeks ago and comes right back to try and earn her first stakes victory. She is without a doubt the one to beat, and should run a great race. She will be ridden by Calvin Borel and is trained by D. Wayne Lukas. She will carry 116 pounds.

Then there is the number seven horse Patriot Miss. The 30-1 morning line longshot, the daughter of Quiet American has only made three starts, one at Charles Town, one at Laurel, and one at Penn National. She did not race as a two year old, but has been racing quite well this spring. She comes into tomorrow's race off of an eight week layoff, but could surprise a lot of people by running a good race. In her last start, she won a mile and seventy yard allowance race at Penn National by six lengths. She has raced in Maryland before, and has been training nicely. I would not be surprised if she won. She will be ridden by T. L. Dunkelberger and is trained by R. Jenkins. She will carry 116 pounds.

This brings us to the number eight horse C C's Pal. The daughter of third place finish, beaten a length, in the grade III Comely Stakes at Aqueduct. 20-1 on the morning line, she probably won't win but has a shot at hitting the board. She will be ridden by Eiber Coa and is trained by Derek Ryan. She will carry 116 pounds.

Finally, there is the number nine horse Diva Delite. The daughter of Repent is 8-1 on the morning line but has a great chance at winning the race. She has started sixteen times, winning half of them, and was on a five race winning streak before finishing third in the grade II Beaumont Stakes at Keeneland last month. But I'm going to assume that she didn't care for the track, and if you look at it that way it's hard to ignore her. With Julien Leparoux in the saddle, she can more than hold her own against this group. She is trained by Ian R. Wilkes.

So now that I have examined every horse, who do I like? Well, here are my picks. . .

1 Tidal Pool
2 Harissa
3 Diva Delite
4 Seeking the Title
5 Patriot Miss
6 C C's Pal
7 No Such Word
8 Acting Happy
9 Khancord Kid

It was a tough race to handicap, but those are my picks. I believe that Tidal Pool can be upset, but I couldn't decide who could do it. Harissa ran a great race last time out, and should run a great race. I love Diva Delite, and would love to see her win, but I don't think that she can. Seeking the Title has a great chance at winning, but I can't put everyone in the top three. Patriot Miss can run better than her odds say, but she probably won't win. Finally, I don't think that Khancord Kid can win this race seeing that it is on dirt. She might have a chance if it was on turf, but I don't think she can do it. But we'll see what happens.

And now that I am finished with this race, I shall announce my picks for the undercard races on May 14th.

UNDERCARD OF BLACK-EYED SUSAN

RACE 1

1 Yogi'ssplashofgold
2 Lucky You
3 Call of a Lion
4 I'llthinkofsumthin
5 Regretable Romance
6 Tidal Change
7 Congar Light
8 Sweetmygee

RACE 2

1 Swear Alliegence
2 May One
3 With Purpose
4 Goodness Gracious
5 Littlemissgrizzly
6 Apron Dancer
7 Valay Cat
8 Frocks Valley Girl
9 Flying Wildcat
10 Hurricane Carousel
11 Bea Lucky Please
12 Devil Denied

RACE 3

1 California Cool
2 Norjac
3 My Bullet
4 Skeleton Crew
5 Citigambler
6 Titanic Win
7 Lycurgus
8 Stone in Love
9 Love Me Later
10 Thorny
11 Mach Three
12 Show Us Ryan
13 Bo Diddley
14 Wildcat Jessie

RACE 4

1 Honor in Peace
2 Cleric
3 Rasher
4 Brogue
5 Chapel of Love
6 Agave Ridger
7 Sun Dance Moon
8 Mass Destruction
9 Dance with Butters
10 Temperance Time
11 Davina's Baby

RACE 5

1 Back to Therapy
2 Got It Covered
3 Gift From the Sea
4 Alwaysacontest
5 Jawise
6 Toe Shows
7 Swingamongthestars
8 Staged Affair
9 Star Flanker

RACE 6

1 Canadian Ballet
2 Starfish Bay
3 Ahvee's Destiny
4 Lady Rizzi
5 Rate of Exchange
6 Life Suzzona
7 Life Lesson
8 Always for Love
9 Daily Candy
10 Don'tgetsuspicious
11 Twiceasbeautiful
12 Mikeslittlegirl
13 Kosmo's Buddy
14 Bobolene

RACE 7

1 Dixieland Melody
2 Squabble
3 Pink Sand
4 Alpha Darlin
5 Lily Quatorze
6 Mac Speed
7 Thundering Rose
8 Armsglen

RACE 8

1 Heros Reward
2 Central City
3 Smart Enough
4 Philharmonic
5 Blue Sailor
6 Sacred Journey
7 Awakino Cat
8 Cardashi
9 Ju Jitsu Jax
10 Natural Seven
11 Local Celebrity
12 Disco Dandy

RACE 9

1 Cuff Me
2 Vindy Curt
3 Starlite Starbrite
4 High Five Gal
5 Argent Affair
6 For Royalty
7 Imanheiress

RACE 10

1 Oh My Me My
2 Phosphorescent
3 Live the Dash
4 Super Chunky
5 I Can Do It
6 El Commodore
7 Conceit
8 Ennis
9 Ronnies Footnotes
10 Access Love
11 Outquest
12 Beboping Lion
13 Circumventor
14 Billionaire Bob

RACE 11

1 Sweet Goodbye
2 Lights Off Annie
3 Rightly So
4 Rate of Exchange
5 All Giving
6 Streetscape
7 Don'tgetsuspicious
8 Sterling Vow
9 Beware of the Bop
10 What Time Is It
11 Mikeslittlegirl

RACE 13

1 Joharmony
2 Smart Seattle
3 Potosina
4 Worstcasescenario
5 Summer Shade
6 Kawiye
7 Miss Speak
8 Imanheiress
9 Littlemissgrizzly
10 Baltimore Belle
11 Kit Kats Luck

And those are my picks for the day. Enjoy the race! I'll be back tomorrow, or maybe tonight, with my picks for the Preakness and the undercard. I can't wait!

-Keelerman

PREAKNESS POST POSITIONS

Here is the field for the Preakness Stakes. . .

1 Aikenite
2 Schoolyard Dreams
3 Pleasant Prince
4 Northern Giant
5 Yawanna Twist
6 Jackson Bend
7 Lookin at Lucky
8 Super Saver
9 Caracortado
10 Paddy O'Prado
11 First Dude
12 Dublin

My detailed thoughts will come later, but here are my first impressions. . .

Poor Dublin. He draws gate seventeen in the Derby and gate twelve in the Preakness. I love this colt and would love to see him win a Triple Crown race, but can he do it from the far outside? We'll see.

Super Saver got a pretty nice gate. He should be able to turn in a winning traffic-free performance from there.

Jackson Bend is in the perfect position for him to set the pace. If he goes to the front, he might get very brave and hand on for the win.

Defeated Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky got an excellent post position, and I'm sure that Bob Baffert is pleased. Caracortado is in a good place, and Schoolyard Dreams is in the perfect spot.

Pleasant Prince and Northern Giant will not be favored, but both should be watched.

It's going to be a great race!

-Keelerman

THE TOP TEN, for the PREAKNESS STAKES, as of May 9th, 2010

1. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
He got the perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby and came through with a two and a half length win. He has proven that he can handle the distance and the slop, and he should take to Pimlico just fine. Todd Pletcher intends to breeze him once before the Preakness.
2. CARACORTADO Cat Dreams - Mons Venus, by Maria's Mon Michael Machowsky
Worked a brilliant seven furlongs in 1:24 3/5 at Santa Anita Park in preparation for the Preakness. He will be coming into the race off of a six week layoff, which isn't great, but Ice Box did the same thing in the Derby and ran second. This colt may provide Super Saver with the stiffest challenge.
3. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
According to D. Wayne Lukas, you would never know this colt had run in the Derby. He is fit and ready for the Preakness and will pick up Garrett Gomez as a rider. I can see this colt rebounding in a big way.
4. HURRICANE IKE Graeme Hall - Parental Uproar, by Future Storm John W. Sadler
Winner of the Derby Trial two weeks ago, he received a picture perfect trip under Calvin Borel, but loses the top jockey as Borel will be riding Super Saver in the Preakness. The colt has a lot of questions to answer, and his pedigree says the Preakness may be a bit too long for him, but I think he can overcome it.
5. SCHOOLYARD DREAMS Stephen Got Even - Hear This, by Prospector's Music Derek Ryan
Has been training beautifully for the Preakness
6. FIRST DUDE Stephen Got Even - Run Sarah Run, by Smart Strike Dale L. Romans
Worked a very sharp five furlongs yesterday at Churchill Downs preparing for the Preakness. It was the fastest workout of the day at that distance. This is a colt that can hit the board in the Preakness and is a major contender.
7. PADDY O'PRADO El Prado - Fun House, by Prized Dale L. Romans
He ran much better than I thought he would in the Derby and should relish the slightly shorter Preakness Stakes. I would not be surprised if he returned to his front running style at Pimlico.
8. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
Once again, he ran into horrible trouble, and but still managed to finish sixth after a nightmare trip in the Derby. As of right now, there is a "52%" chance of this colt going to the Preakness. However, if he does, he will not be ridden by Garrett Gomez, who will ride Dublin instead.
9. AIKENITE Yes It's True - Silverlado, by Saint Ballado Todd Pletcher
Worked five furlongs in 1:01 2/5 earlier today, the ninth fastest of nineteen workouts at that distance. The runner up in the Derby Trial, he may be coming into the Preakness the right way and could save the race for Pletcher is Super Saver falters.
10a. YAWANNA TWIST Yonaguska - Twist and Pop, by Oliver's Twist Richard E. Dutrow, Jr.
This talented New York bred has never finished worse than second, but has never won a stakes race. He was the runner up in the Gotham Stakes, the runner up in the Illinois Derby, and it is unknown if he can go a mile and three sixteenths. And workouts have been anything but brilliant. But he always tries his best, and sometimes that is enough.
10b. A LITTLE WARM Stormin Fever - Minidar, by Alydar Anthony W. Dutrow
The runner up in the Louisiana Derby, A Little Warm has many questions to answer. Can he go a mile and three sixteenths? Can he rate just off the lead? And above all, is he good enough?

WATCH VERY CLOSELY

BUSHWHACKED Had a temperature of 103 the other day and may not run.
EXHI Not sure if he is going to come.
JACKSON BEND I'm not going to put him on until his connections decide to enter him.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Might run in the Preakness, or he might run in the Belmont. Or perhaps he'll run in both.
MISSION IMPAZIBLE Disappointing in the Kentucky Derby, but could rebound in the Preakness.
NORTHERN GIANT Very disappointing in the Arkansas Derby, but could rebound in the Preakness.
PLEASANT PRINCE He has been racing very frequently, but it doesn't seem to affect him. He can win the Preakness.

POSSIBLE BELMONT CONTENDERS

AFLEET AGAIN May be a contender, but he may not want to go that far.
AFLEET EXPRESS I haven't given up on him yet.
DROSSELMEYER Dwyer was a bit of a disappointment, but by no means a bad race.
DUBLIN A mile and a half might be beyond his means, but always tries his best.
FLY DOWN Very impressive in the Dwyer. Serious contender.
ICE BOX Ran second in the Derby despite traffic trouble. Serious contender.
LOOKIN AT LUCKY Can he go a mile and a half? Will he even run?
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME I think he has the talent to win the Belmont, but can he handle Super Saver and Ice Box?
PLEASANT PRINCE Impossible to ignore. Losing by a nose to Ice Box in the Florida Derby is no laughing matter.
SETSUKO Disappointing in the American Turf Stakes, but wasn't beaten too badly. Could be a real contender.
SUPER SAVER There are questions that need to be answered, such as can he go a mile and a half, but right now he looks really good.
UPTOWNCHARLYBROWN He always comes running late, but can he match strides with Ice Box? We'll see.

-Keelerman