General News
Over the last week or so, several injuries to prominent Breeders’ Cup contenders have saddened horse racing fans across the country.
First off, there was Awesome Maria’s condylar fracture. A winner of all four of her starts this year, including an impressive three-length triumph in the Ogden Phipps Handicap (gr. I), she was one of the leading older mares in this country and was pointing toward this weekend’s Ruffian Handicap (gr. I). Sadly, she injured her leg in a workout on July 18th, and although the injury is not very serious – she could most likely return to the races and run just as well as before – she is out for at least the rest of the year.
Then came the announcement that Pool Play, the last-to-first winner of the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I), had suffered a torn tendon that will keep him out of action until at least 2012. The horse was making his first start on dirt in the Stephen Foster, and looked to have a very bright future over the surface. Sadly, the injury is probably career-ending.
Finally, Hollywood Gold Cup winner First Dude has been retired due to a strained tendon, likely suffered during his narrow victory in the Gold Cup. The four-year-old colt had won three straight races and was considered by many to be the leading older male in the country. Although his career is over, I am glad that he did finally get a grade I win after losing so many prestigious top-level events last year.
In other news, the undefeated European sensation Frankel will not be coming for the Breeders’ Cup. After winning the Sussex Stakes (Eng-I) in stunning fashion over a magnificent horse in Canford Cliffs, it was announced that Frankel might may his final start of the year in the Juddmonte International (Eng-I)
Cougar II Handicap: Setsuko Goes for Stakes Win
Grade I stakes-placed Setsuko will attempt to secure his first stakes victory late this afternoon in the $125,000 Cougar II Handicap (gr. III) at Del Mar.
Setsuko is beginning to remind me a lot of First Dude, thanks to his apparent inability to win a major race. Last year, First Dude – having broken his maiden – managed to finish second in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I), third in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), third in the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), third in the Haskell (gr. I), third in the Travers (gr. I), and third in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. III) without winning a single stakes race. Likewise, Setsuko has only a maiden win to his credit but has finished second in the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I), Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), Californian Stakes (gr. II), and Sham Stakes (gr. III).
Does Setsuko want to win? There are theories that some horses simply don’t want to win races, but I don’t believe that holds true here because Setsuko was really trying hard when beaten a nose in the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I). He has merely been very unlucky.
Today, he drops a bit in class off of a decent fourth-place finish in the Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I) and stretches out in distance to try and secure his first major victory. Today’s Cougar II Handicap is a mile and a half in distance, a full quarter-mile longer than Setsuko has ever raced before. Whether or not this will help him remains to be seen, but Setsuko has always struck me as a horse that wants a lot of distance. If he should succeed in winning the Cougar II – which is a “Win and You’re In” prep race for the Breeders’ Cup Marathon – he could potentially establish himself as a one of the leading contenders for that race.
His main competition will probably come from Bourbon Bay, a very successful turf router attempting to transfer his turf form to synthetics. He’s proven himself time and time again at this distance and further – he won the San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap (gr. II) going 1 ¾ miles – but he is not proven over synthetics. His lone start over an all-weather track, in the 2009 Sham Stakes (gr. III) on Santa Anita’s Pro-Ride surface, yielded a distant fourth-place finish behind The Pamplemousse. Granted, at that time he was nowhere near the horse that he is now, but I’m not perfectly sure that he will handle Del Mar’s synthetic track as well as he handles turf.
Just what Breeders’ Cup race Bourbon Bay is pointing to remains to be seen. While he has been very successful going a mile and a half on turf – the conditions of the Breeders’ Cup Turf (gr. I) – his eleventh-place finish in the Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-I) in Dubai signals that he may just not be up to defeating the best turf horses in Europe, which could make a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Turf very difficult. However, if he is to win the Marathon this afternoon, it would open up a whole new possibility for the five-year-old gelding. He would still have to prove his merit on a traditional dirt track, over which the Breeders’ Cup Marathon will be run this year, but the weaker competition in that race would help Bourbon Bay’s chances at finding Breeders’ Cup success this year.
None of the other horses are really expected to contend for the top two positions, and to be perfectly honest I would be pretty surprised if Setsuko and Bourbon Bay don’t run 1-2. It should be a great race.
Curlin Stakes: A Star for Allen Jerkens?
A small field of six sophomores, reduced from seven due to the scratch of Will’s Wildcat, is scheduled to head to post this afternoon for the feature race of the Saratoga card, the $75,000 Curlin Stakes. Named for the amazing two-time Horse of the Year, the morning line favorite in the Curlin Stakes is the up-and-coming Bold Warrior. Trained by the legendary Allen Jerkens, the colt finished a strong second in his debut race before dominating a six-furlong maiden special weight by three lengths in the sharp time of 1:09.25. He then turned in a brilliant performance in a seven-furlong allowance optional claiming race, winning under a light hand ride by 3 ¼ lengths in a sharp 1:22.16.
It has been a long time since Allen Jerkens has trained a really good racehorse. This is the trainer who upset Secretariat with two different horses. This is the trainer who pulled off so many memorable upsets over Kelso with his star Beau Purple. This is the trainer who has won over 3,800 races.
Would it not be magnificent if Allen Jerkens was to finally train another top-caliber racehorse? With Bold Warrior, he may just have one. Should Bold Warrior succeed in winning the Curlin Stakes this afternoon – his first try around two turns – then he could potentially go on to races like the Travers (gr. I) or Super Derby (gr. II). A win in one of these races could propel him toward the Breeders’ Cup, and if all goes well, a shot at a championship.
But first let’s see if he can win the Curlin.
Other contenders in this race who will be looking to upset Bold Warrior are Prime Cut and Raison d’Etat. The latter, a lightly-raced son of A.P. Indy, will be making his first start against winner. Last time out, he broke his maiden by 7 ¾ lengths at Belmont Park, running a mile and a sixteenth in 1:41.88. Trained by William Mott, he looks like a very talented colt with a lot of potential. If he was to win this race impressively, he could head to the Travers with a legitimate shot at winning.
Prime Cut is a stakes-tested colt, having finished second in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. III) and third in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II). An attempt to win a classic in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) garnered an eleventh-place finish, but this drop in class should greatly help his chances today.
Turbo Compressor is the other horse that fascinates me. Last time out, the Todd Pletcher-trainee set a solid pace in the Pegasus Stakes (gr. III) before tiring to finish third behind a pair of Haskell (gr. I) contenders in Pants On Fire and Concealed Identity. Prior to that, he won an allowance race by 13 ½ lengths. He seems to be an improving colt and, in my opinion, has a big chance at winning this race.
Finally, a notable return. . .
In the third race today at Saratoga, the 2010 Florida Derby (gr. I) winner Ice Box will make his return in a stakes-quality allowance optional claiming race at a mile and an eighth. After finishing second in last year’s Kentucky Derby (gr. I), he went off form and failed to hit the board in four subsequent starts. His final start of 2010 was the Monmouth Cup Stakes (gr. II), where he finished a dull fifth. After a long break filled with minor setbacks, he is finally ready to return to the races.
Convocation, runner-up in the 2010 Suburban Handicap (gr. II), will likely be sent off as the favorite. Last time out, he finished fourth in this year’s Suburban Handicap, but seems to be on the improve and should be ready to turn in a winning effort.
The other entries are Ron the Greek, the 2010 LeComte Stakes (gr. III) winner; Wilkinson, the 2011 LeComte winner, Anak Nakal, the 2008 Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) winner, and Northern Giant, who hit the board in a pair of graded stakes races last year. Whether or not Ice Box wins this race is not important; rather, I would just like to see him turn in a good return effort.
Tomorrow, I shall write up another post regarding Saturday’s racing action, including the San Diego Handicap (gr. II) at Del Mar. But until then, enjoy today’s race everyone!
-Keelerman
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