Saturday, July 02, 2011

Salvator Mile Analysis

It is currently seventeen minutes until post time for the grade III Salvator Mile Stakes at Monmouth Park, which has drawn a great field of seven horses.

The current favorite at 9-5 is Soaring Empire, winner of the Hal's Hope Stakes at Gulfstream Park in early January. That performance was followed by a pair of runner-up efforts in the Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship Stakes (gr. II) and the Gulfstream Park Handicap (gr. II). In his most recent start, he finished a disappointing seventh in the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I) as the second choice. He has had one breeze since then, working five furlongs in :59 flat at Monmouth on June 14th. Why he hasn't worked since then I don't know, but he should run better today than he did in the Met Mile.

Morning Line is currently the second choice. Beaten a head in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) last fall, he finished third in the Hal's Hope Stakes behind Soaring Empire before running second in the Donn Handicap (gr. I) and winning the Carter Handicap (gr. I) last time out. But the Carter was in early April, and foot issues have kept Morning Line away from the races until today. He has had only two breezes since early May, and may be a but short today, but this should be a good return race for him.

Rule has not won a race this year, but has turned in some good efforts, most notably a close third in the Donn Handicap (gr. I). He ran very poorly last time out when ninth in the Charles Town Classic, but he probably had a good reason and I expect him to be sharper today.

Kensei has not won a race since August 2009 and was most recently eleventh in the Met Mile. Motovato won the Memorial Day Handicap at Calder last time out, but will have to run even better to win a race like this. Cactus Charlie won a pair of allowance races at Parx Racing in March and April, but ran fourth in the Skip Away Stakes last time out. Friesan Fire, distant fourth in the Texas Mile Stakes (gr. III) last time out, completes the lineup.

-Keelerman

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