Wednesday, July 27, 2011

The Juveniles at Saratoga -- July 27th

Two more fascinating maiden special weight races for juveniles are scheduled to be run today at Saratoga. They are the third and fifth races on the card, which also features the Lake George Stakes (gr. II) where More Than Real and Winter Memories will meet for the first time since finishing 1-2 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) last year.

Saratoga Race 3
Maiden Special Weight
2yos
$50,000
Five Furlongs

Entries:

Program #/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Delta Ranger 15-1
2 Mr. Style 2-1
3 J C's Pride 1-1
4 Hard Nosed 6-1
5 Chalybeate Springs 8-1
6 Ventura Bar 12-1

The heavy favorite on the morning line is J C's Pride, a very promising son of Henny Hughes. Trained by Robert Barbara, the colt has raced once before, finishing second to Sanford Stakes (gr. II) winner Overdriven in a maiden special weight. Since then he has been training well and looks ready to break his maiden today. Jose Lezcano has the mount.

The second choice is Mr. Style, a Todd-Pletcher trained son of Bluegrass Cat. This will be his first start, but he has been training exceptionally well and looks like a promising juvenile indeed. He will be ridden by John Velazquez.

Hard Nosed is also unraced, but he has the connections to be a superstar. Trained by Nick Zito, the son of Hard Spun has leading rider of the meet Javier Castellano in the saddle. However, he has only had three half-mile breezes to get him ready for this race and I would not be surprised at all if this is really just a learning experience for the colt. I think that he will improve with time and age.

Chalybeate Springs is a D. Wayne Lukas-trained son of Dynaformer. Being a son of Dynaformer, I would not be surprised if this colt improves the farther he runs, as Dynaformer tends to get very good stayers and is a good source of stamina. Chalybeate Springs has raced twice before, finishing fifth in a maiden special weight and fifth in the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III). This will be his first start on Lasix, but he has only recorded one breeze in the last month, so he may not be perfectly fit for this race. Manoel Cruz has the mount.

Ventura Bar has a start under his belt already, a strong second in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight despite a rough trip. But that race was on turf, so this son of Officer is going to have to prove that he can handle the dirt today. Trained by Ken McPeek, Alan Garcia has the mount.

Finally, there is Delta Ranger. He has drawn the rail, which probably isn't the best spot for him, but the unraced son of Mr. Greeley could be something special. He has been training steadily for trainer Michelle Nihei and will have Jesus Castanon in the saddle. I would not be surprised if he turns in a good performance.

My selections for this race are:

1 J C's Pride
2 Mr. Style
3 Chalybeate Springs

Saratoga Race 5
Maiden Special Weight
2yos
$50,000
5-1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

Entries:

Program #/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Politicallycorrect (Scratched)
1A Ten W Forty (Scratched)
2 Situational Ethics 15-1
3 Doctor Chit 5-2
4 Woods Hole 10-1
5 State of Play 6-1
6 Sark 5-1
7 Arthur 10-
8 Texas Josh 15-1
9 Tiger Walk 8-1

Todd Pletcher has a pair of runners in this race, Doctor Chit and Woods Hole. The former, a son of War Chant, has never raced before but worked five furlongs in a very sharp :59.72 on the Saratoga turf course in preparation for this race. With John Velazquez in the saddle, he looks like a deserving favorite in this spot. As for Woods Hole, the son of Kitalpha has been breezing for some time now at Delaware Park, but does not show any turf works. He has top rider Javier Castellano in the saddle, but he has a lot to overcome in order to win this race.

Sark is the second choice on the morning line. Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, the son of English Channel already has three starts under his belt. In his first start, he was third in a five-furlong main track maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. He then finished third in a similar 4-1/2 furlong event behind the twice stakes-placed Power World. In his most recent race, when traversing five furlongs on turf, he finished a close fourth beaten just 1 3/4 lengths. It looks to me like Sark is going to be tough to beat this afternoon. Cornelio Velasquez has the mount.

On the other hand, State of Play looks like a serious contender too. Owned by Team Valor International and trained by top turf trainer Graham Motion, the son of War Front has been training nicely at Fair Hill in Maryland and has shipped in for this race. I have a feeling that this colt may be something very special indeed. Ramon Dominguez will ride.

Tiger Walk also looks promising. Trained by Ignacio Correas, IV, the son of Tale of the Cat has been turning in some nice breezes over the all-weather track at Sagamore Farm. This will be his debut race, but with Jose Lezcano in the saddle I think he could be a serious contender.

Then there is Arthur, a son of Artie Schiller who seems to be bred for the turf. Trained by Kathy Ritvo, the colt has breezed over the Saratoga turf twice and looks very promising. Rajiv Maragh has the mount.

Texas Josh has only breezed four times in preparation for this start, but the son of Istan has good connections in the form of trainer Nick Zito and jockey Corey Nakatani. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Texas Josh needs this race for experience and isn't completed fit yet.

Finally, we come to Situational Ethics. Trained by Mark Hennig, the son of Broken Vow has never raced before but has turned in many breezes at Belmont Park over the last two months. However, none of them have been on turf, so if Situational Ethics is to win what will be his debut race he will have to handle the turf course, over which he has no experience. Alan Garcia has the mount.

My picks for this race are:

1 State of Play
2 Doctor Chit
3 Sark

PREVIOUS RESULTS

July 25th

Race 3
Maiden Special Weight
2yo Fillies
$50,000
Five Furlongs

Select Cat awarded the bettors who sent her off as the 1.35-1 favorite by winning the five-furlong maiden special weight event in decisive fashion. Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez, the daughter of Tale of the Cat was making her first start. Over a sloppy sealed main track, Select Cat went straight to the lead while being tracked by Spring Breeze and Barbados Beauty. Passing the quarter pole John Velazquez asked his mount for more run and Select Cat responded impressively, drawing away to win by 5 1/2 lengths. Spare Change rallied to be second under Julien Leparoux, while Barbados Beauty held on to third. The final time was :58.94. Spring Breeze, Siberian Wildcat, and Miss Bikini Bottom completed the order of finish.

Race 5
Maiden Special Weight
2yo Fillies
$51,000
5-1/2 Furlongs

Although this race was originally scheduled to be run of the turf course, it was rained off due to rainstorms which left the main track sloppy and sealed, as mentioned above. But apparently Morning Shine didn't care, for she thoroughly dominated her five rivals in what was her very first race. A daughter of Lion Heart trained by Steve Asmussen, the filly bumped with favored Volcat at the start but recovered to track the early pace set by Sweet Cat while racing three wide. Cat Girl was tucked in along the inside of the leading pair, and entering the homestretch those three were on virtually even terms. But Morning Shine had them measured, drawing away in the final eighth of a mile to win by 5 1/2 lengths under Julien Leparoux. Sweet Cat was best of the rest while finishing second, finishing 2 1/4 lengths in front of Volcat. The latter just edged out Cat Girl for third. Fly to the Sky and Run a Risk trailed throughout. The final time was 1:05.15.

-Keelerman

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