It's a big 4th of July weekend for horse racing! Countless early prep races for the Breeders' Cup are scheduled to be run, and by the time the dust settles we should have a much better idea of who the leading contenders are for many of the divisions. Even the two-year-olds will start sorting themselves out this afternoon as they battle in the Bashford Manor Stakes! Here are my thoughts on many of the races:
Suburban Handicap (gr. II)
A very small but intriguing field has turned out for the 2011 edition of the historic Suburban Handicap at Belmont Park. The nine furlong event has drawn six runners.
The 8-5 morning line favorite is Rodman, who ran a strong second at huge odds in the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. I) back in May. This will be his first start since then, and if he runs back to his Met Mile form than he should be a major contender.
Hymm Book is the second choice at 5-2. In nine starts, he has finished worse than third only once, that poor performance coming in his very first start. He has started twice this year, finishing a late-running second in a turf allowance race at Keeneland before defeating I Want Revenge in the Three Coins Up Stakes at Belmont Park last time out.
Colizeo ran second to Apart in the William Donald Schaefer Memorial Stakes (gr. III) last time out at Pimlico and had been pretty consistent this year. With a good trip, he could contend. Flat Out has made just three starts since April 2009, but his last two have been strong efforts in the Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III), where he finished second, and the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I), where he ran a close sixth.
Convocation ran second to Haynesfield in this race last year and has been running fairly well as of late. He is fond of this track, and a fast pace would greatly help his chances. Icabad Crane, third in the William Donald Schaefer, completes the lineup.
Dwyer Stakes (gr. II)
The 1 1/16th miles Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park for three-year-olds and up has drawn a fascinating field of sophomores pointing toward races such as the Jim Dandy, Haskell, and Travers Stakes later this year. The 6-5 favorite is Adios Charlie, a lightly-raced colt that won the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) and finished second beaten a head in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II). He hasn't raced since mid-May, but he has been training sharply and should be able to win this race even if he isn't 100% sharp.
Cool Blue Red Hot turned in a brilliant late-running performance last time out in a mile and a sixteenth allowance race at Belmont Park, and appears to be rounding into his best form. On the other hand, he got a pretty perfect trip in that race and will likely have to run even better to defeat Adios Charlie.
Dominus was beaten a neck last time out in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) on April 30th, where he ran extremely well on the front end before tiring in the final strides. He hasn't raced in two months, but has been working bullets and should be sharp.
Malibu Glow, third in the Spend a Buck Stakes; Harlan's Hello, fourth in the Pegasus Stakes (gr. III); and Tech Fall, a promising allowance race, complete the field.
Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III)
This afternoon at Churchill Downs, the six furlong Bashford Manor Stakes for two-year-olds is set to be run. One of the first major juvenile races of the year, it routinely turns out promising horses that perform well later in the fall, or the following year as sophomores.
The 3-1 morning line favorite is Sum of the Parts, who turned in a brilliant performance in his only start to date. In a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, he broke poorly but went straight to the lead and drew away for a 2 3/4 length victory in :51.03. If he can stretch out to six furlongs, he can dominate.
Exfactor, second to Sum of the Parts in the latter's maiden win, returned three weeks later to break his maiden going 5 1/2 furlongs by 4 1/2 lengths. It will be interesting to see if he can defeat Sum of the Parts today, which he possibly could since he has more experience now.
Power World won his only race to date, and it was impressive. Bumped and pinched back at the start of a 4-1/2 furlong maiden special weight, he rallied furiously from six lengths back at the eighth pole to win by a length. In a race that seems to be filled with speed, he may have the talent to blow past them all.
Bonaparte, a front-running maiden special weight winner; Hot Speed, a maiden claiming race winner; Chalybeate Springs, fifth in a maiden special weight; and Friscan, a gritty maiden special weight victor, complete the field.
Shoemaker Mile Stakes (gr. I)
The Shoemaker Mile, a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" prep race for the Breeders' Cup Mile, has attracted a strong field of seven horses led by Courageous Cat. The colt, who ran second to Goldikova in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I), won the one-mile Poker Stakes (gr. III) at Belmont Park in his 2011 debut under a hand ride. Anything close to his best performance would put him in contention for the win here.
Victor's Cry, winner of this race last year, goes for a repeat. He has not raced since finishing fifth in the Dubai Duty Free (UAE-I) at Meydan in March, but has been training well for his return. Still, it usually takes a race or two for horses to recover from the long trip to Dubai, so Victor's Cry may not be ready to run his very best race. Interestingly, he will be racing on Lasix for the first time.
Liberian Freighter won the Arcadia Stakes (gr. II) and Inglewood Handicap (gr. III) earlier this year before running fifth in the American Handicap (gr. II). But in the American, he got into a speed duel with the front-running Sidney's Candy and was not able to keep up. If he can get a lonely lead, he can steal this race.
Caracortado has run sixth and fifth in his last two starts, but they have been deceptively good performances. In the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs, he ran sixth, but was beaten just three-quarters of a length. And this was a race on dirt, a surface on which Caracortado is not at his best.
In the Arcadia Stakes, where he finished fifth behind Liberian Freighter, he was allowed to drop way too far back and was 6 1/2 lengths behind passing the eighth pole. Despite this, he managed to close the gap to only 1 1/2 lengths at the finish. He is a a proven grade I-caliber miler, as he ran second beaten a head in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile Handicap (gr. I) back in March.
Blue Chagall has only won twice since late 2009, but occasionally turns in a good effort. He was beaten a half-length by Liberian Freighter in the Arcadia Stakes three starts back, and if he runs back to that effort he could potentially hit the board.
Smokey Lonesome defeated Blue Chagall by a half-length in a mile and a sixteenth turf allowance race last time out, and a decent pace to run at would help his chances. Ashtar, a Chilean-bred colt that has run well in his native country, will be making his United States debut.
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One non-stakes race that I will be watching is the eleventh race at Churchill Downs this afternoon, where Dublin will make his return to the races in a 6-1/2 furlong allowance race. Unraced since running fifth in the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) last year, he was my pick to win that year's Kentucky Derby and I have always been fond of him. It's nice to see him getting back to the races at last!
I shall post additional racing thoughts later this afternoon, including analysis of the United Nations Handicap (gr. I) and the Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I). Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
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