The Hollywood Gold Cup! The Man o’ War! The Princess Rooney! The Smile Sprint! Today’s lineup of Breeders’ Cup prep races is a magnificent bunch.
In the Hollywood Gold Cup, leading older male Twirling Candy takes on Game On Dude and Setsuko in a Santa Anita Handicap rematch, with Awesome Gem trying to fend them off to score a repeat victory in the historic race.
In the Man o’ War, three-time Eclipse award-winning Gio Ponti will attempt to win the event for the third straight year, but will have to defeat the rapidly improving former claimer Mission Approved in order to do so.
In the Princess Rooney, leading female sprinter Sassy Image takes on two-time grade I winner Champagne d’Oro in what should prove to be a thrilling race. Let’s take a closer look at these and the other great races coming up later this afternoon. . .
Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I)
This historic grade I, mile and a quarter event has been won by countless good horses over the decades, with Seabiscuit taking its inaugural running. This year’s edition could potentially produce a true leader for the older males division, which lacks anything that even resembles a leader.
The morning line favorite at 4-5 is the above-mentioned Twirling Candy. An immensely talented four-year-old son of Candy Ride, the colt won the Malibu Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita last December, sprinting the seven furlongs in track record time. An overwhelmingly easy victory in the Strub Stakes (gr. II) set him up for a run in the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I), where he was bumped hard and repeatedly at the top of the stretch before backing up to finish fifth. Three months later, he returned to the races in the Californian Stakes (gr. II), where the front-running colt showed a new dimension by closing strongly from off the pace to win under a hand ride. That was his most recent start to date, and if he runs back to it he should win today’s Gold Cup. But Twirling Candy has had some issues with rating and relaxing in the past, and we still don’t know if he can succeed in a ten furlong race of this caliber.
Other leading contenders are the two “Dudes” from the Baffert barn, Game On Dude and First Dude. It seems impossible that two horses with dude in their name – from the same crop no less – would meet up as often as they have. They met for the first time in the 2010 Florida Derby (gr. I), where First Dude ran fifth and Game On Dude seventh. They met again in the Belmont Stakes, where First Dude ran third and game On Dude fourth. Most recently, they ran sixth and first, respectively, in the Santa Anita Handicap. Although First Dude has defeated Game On Dude in two of their three meetings, Game On Dude seems to be in better form this year. It will be interesting to see who does better this afternoon.
Awesome Gem, winner of this race in 2010, goes for a repeat victory. He’ll be a bit of a longshot, but he defeated heavily favored Rail Trip in this race last year, so he has some experience defeating heavy favorites. He is a true mile and a quarter horse, so if Twirling Candy falls apart in the final eighth of a mile, Awesome Gem may just be able to pick up the pieces.
Setsuko, runner-up in the Santa Anita Handicap to Game On Dude, didn’t race again until the Californian Handicap, where he ran second to Twirling Candy. He didn’t get the cleanest of trips that day, and should be sharper this time out, but he’ll have to run his best to win a race like this.
Miss Match, a close third in the Vanity Handicap (gr. I) last time out, gets into the race with only 110 pounds and is thus receiving twelve from Twirling Candy. A distance loving mare, she won the Santa Margarita Invitational (gr. I) over the very nice filly Switch earlier this year and – if she gets a perfect trip – may be good enough to secure a sizable piece of the purse.
Soul Candy, fourth in the Californian, and Dark Cove, third in the Colonial Turf Cup Stakes, complete the field.
Man o’ War Stakes (gr. I)
Can Gio Ponti win his third straight Man o’ War Stakes? That is the question that all are asking. The champion turf male in this country for two straight years, the Man o’ War has been part of his Eclipse-award winning resume on both occasions. With the division still wide open this year, a victory in the Man o’ War could potentially launch Gio Ponti on his way to an unprecedented third straight championship.
But he has a worthy rival facing him this year in Mission Approved. The colt, who was available to be claimed twice last year, entered the 2010 Man o’ War Stakes as a 53-1 shot. Despite his huge odds, he succeeded in slowing the pace down to a crawl and nearly held off Gio Ponti, who closed his final quarter mile in :21 and change to win by a neck.
Setbacks kept Mission Approved away from the races for eleven months after that. The seven-year-old horse returned to the racetrack in the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (gr. I) against Gio Ponti. Once again, Mission Approved slowed the pace down to a crawl. This time, he was not caught. He blazed home his final quarter mile over a yielding track in :23.88 to win by a length and a quarter over Bim Bam, who held second by a neck over the late-running Gio Ponti.
Who will win the 2011 Man o’ War? Whether it’s Gio Ponti or Mission Approved, you can bet that they’ll put on a good show.
. . . on the other hand, it’s fairly possible that neither will win. Foreign invader Cape Blanco, a group I winner in Europe, has been entered. Beaten just a length in this year’s Dubai World Cup – a race in which he finished ahead of Gio Ponti – he has proven to be an extremely talented competitor on turf and may prove just too good for Gio Ponti and Mission Approved to handle. At the very least, the colt – who has good tactical speed – will ensure an honest pace.
Al Khali, fourth in the Manhattan; Bearpath, second in the Louisville Handicap (gr. III); and Boisterous, winner of the Three Coins Up Stakes last time out, complete this talented lineup of turf males.
Swaps Stakes (gr. II)
A compact field of five sophomores is scheduled to head to post for the 2011 edition of the Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park. The 6-5 morning line favorite is the up-and-coming Bob Baffert-trained Coil, winner of his last three starts. Last time out, he flew to a sharp victory in the Affirmed Handicap (gr. III) in his two-turn debut. With Martin Garcia in the saddle, I would not be surprised if the colt totally dominated his opposition this afternoon.
On the other hand, I would not be surprised if Runflatout catches him today. The colt, who broke his maiden sprinting six furlong in 1:07.70, was charging late at the finish of the Affirmed Handicap to fall just a length short of Coil. With an extra sixteenth of a mile to run today, he may just be able to catch Coil this time around.
Uncle Sam, eighth in the Lone Star Derby on the turf and a close second in the Alydar Stakes; Dreamy Kid, fourth in a recent allowance optional claiming event; and Spud Spivens, third in the Affirmed, round out the field.
Princess Rooney Handicap (gr. I)
Champagne d’Oro and Sassy Image are the two big names here. Champagne d’Oro, winner of the Acorn Stakes (gr. I) and Test Stakes (gr. I) last year, proved herself to be among the best female sprinters of 2010. This will be her first start since El Encino Stakes (gr. II) back in January at the end of an extremely long campaign. Sassy Image was a classy stakes winning two-year-old, but setbacks kept her away from the races for much of her three-year-old season. But this year, she has proved herself to be a talented sprinter by taking the Humana Distaff (gr. I) and the Winning Colors Stakes (gr. III) to establish herself as the leader of the division.
The only other horse expected to give the top two contenders a run for their money is Derwin’s Star. Winner of the Charles Town Oaks last year, she has only made one start in 2011, that being a dominating victory in a 6-1/2 furlong allowance optional claiming race at Parx Racing despite a bit of traffic issues. Although Champagne d’Oro and Sassy Image bring better credentials to the table, Derwin’s Star may be good enough to beat them both. It should be a good race.
Smile Sprint Handicap (gr. II)
Noble’s Promise was showed a great deal of talent and two and three. This year, he has a shot at being a champion.
The male sprinter division lacks any form of a leader this year, with last year’s champion Big Drama unraced since a strong victory in the Mr. Prospector at the beginning of the year. Thus, Noble’s Promise has as good a shot as any at claiming leadership of the division.
After finishing a troubled fifth in his 2011 debut, the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II), Noble’s Promise impressively defeated the inconsistent but talented Atta Boy Roy in the Aristides Stakes (gr. III) in his most recent start. A late-running sprinter with the tactical speed to secure good position early, Noble’s Promise should be a dangerous contender here if he takes to the Calder strip.
Other logical contenders are Giant Ryan, winner of four straight races including the Ponche Handicap here at Calder; and This Ones for Phil, distant second to the budding superstar Trappe Shot in the True North Handicap (gr. II) last time out.
Irrefutable, winner of two straight allowance races for Bob Baffert’s Royal Tricon, second to Giant Ryan in the Ponche; and How’s Your Halo, winner of the 2009 Ponche in his last victory, complete the field.
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Those are the big races of this Saturday. Of course, there are many other fine stakes races to watch, including a fabulous three-stakes card at Arlington, but I’m afraid I can’t cover them all. But you never know where a Breeders’ Cup contender will come from, so if anything impressive happens in a race I didn’t mention, I’ll be sure to write up the details and tell you about it.
Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
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