The Juveniles at Saratoga -- July 30th, 2011

Two more promising-looking maiden special weights for juveniles are carded this afternoon at Saratoga. They are the second and sixth races on the card, and one of them contains a horse that looks like a potential stakes winner to me.

Saratoga Race 2
Maiden Special Weight
2yos
$50,000
6 Furlongs

Entries:

1 Giant Surprise 3-1
2 A Cat That Flies 8-1
3 Officer Prado 4-1
4 Dixie Minister 15-1
5 Stealcase 7-2
6 Doctorious 6-1
7 Invocation 8-1
8 Timely Tally 8-1
9 Lostandfoundagain 20-1

On the rail is the morning line favorite Giant Surprise. He is the above-mentioned potential stakes winner. A well-bred son of Giant's Causeway, the colt is owned by Repole Stable, trained by Todd Pletcher, and will be ridden by John Velazquez. As most of you likely know, these are the connections of last year's two-year-old champion Uncle Mo and current two-year-old sensation Overdriven. These connections alone would probably be enough to earn this colt favoritism in a maiden race, but when you add this to the fact that he has been training exceptionally well, you have a colt who looks ready to win first time out.

The second choice is Stealcase, a son of Lawyer Ron. Trained by Mark Casse, he is an unraced colt but has been turning in some terrific workouts. Shaun Bridgmohan has the mount on this promising-looking juvenile.

Officer Prado is also a major contender. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the son of Officer has raced once before, finishing fourth in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs. It was a very strong performance, and he is eligible to improve in his second career start. Corey Nakatani has the mount.

Doctorious, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, already has a race under his belt. In a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, he closed well from last to be up for third. He will be racing for the first time on Lasix today and has trained well for this start. The son of Smart Strike will be ridden by Robby Albarado.

In gate two is the 8-1 shot A Cat That Flies. A son of Fusaichi Pegasus, he will be making his first start today after turning in some nice three- and four-furlong breezes over the last two months. Trained by Nick Zito and owned by Robert LaPenta, I wouldn't be surprised if A Cat That Flies eventually turns into a very nice horse, but I don't believe he is ready to win in his rebut race. Ramon Dominguez has the mount.

Invocation and Timely Tally are the other 8-1 shots in this race. The former, a son of Pulpit, has been training fairly well for John Kimmel and will be ridden by David Cohen. The latter is a son of Mr. Greeley trained by Ian Wilkes, and he too has been training well. In the saddle is Julien Leparoux.

Finally, we come to the longshots Dixie Minister and Lostandfoundagain. Dixie Minister, a son of Dixie Union, is trained by Dallas Stewart and finished ninth and last in his only race to date. He has not turned in any really notable workouts since then and appears to be a very big longshot on the surface here. He will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux.

Lostandfoundagain, trained by Ernest Smith, has been in training at Suffolk Downs and ships in for this race. A son of Lost Soldier, Jose Esinoza has the mount.

My picks are:

1 Giant Surprise
2 Office Prado
3 Stealcase

Saratoga Race 6
Maiden Special Weight
2yos
$51,000
8.5 Furlongs (Turf)

Entries:

1 Furman Bisher 15-1
1A Street Fight (Scratched)
2 Tiz a Homerun 4-1
3 Saturday Classic 6-1
4 Quiet Danger 10-1
5 Colbert 5-1
6 Captain Webb 3-1
7 Magical Moment 8-1
8 Honor Call 15-1
9 Master Achievment 15-1
10 Daddy Nose Best 6-1
11 Speightscity (Scratched)
12 Takemebaktoartemus (Scratched)
13 Whinston C (Scratched)
14 Dullahan (Scratched)

The morning line favorite is yet another Todd Pletcher-trained/John Velazquez-ridden colt Captain Webb. A son of English Channel, he is unraced but has been training just beautifully. He breezed five furlongs on the Saratoga turf in :59.18 on July 20th and subsequently turned in a good half-mile breeze on the dirt to keep him sharp. I believe that he is ready to win in his very first race.

Tiz a Homerun, trained by Graham Motion, has been training well at Fair Hill in Maryland and could be something special. Graham Motion is one of the best trainers in this country at preparing horses for turf races, so one should definitely not count out Tiz a Homerun. Unfortunately, he has drawn the rail, which isn't the easiest spot to break from, but the son of Tiznow looks very promising. Jose Lezcano has the mount.

I won't go into great detail on the rest of the horses, simply because this post is getting long as it is, but I shall briefly mention a few others that I feel could contend here.

One is Saturday Classic, a son of Any Given Saturday. He turned in a :59.88 five-furlong workout over the Saratoga turf on July 20th, and the Mark Casse-trainee looks like a promising youngster.

Colbert finished second beaten a neck in a one-mile maiden special weight at Ellis Park, but that was on a sloppy main track and this is Saratoga, where the competition is tougher.

Magical Moment finished seventh in his only race to date, but went from 12 1/2 lengths behind at the eighth pole to only 5 1/2 lengths at the finish. I believe he may just have what it takes to win a race like this.

My selections are:

1 Captain Webb
2 Magical Moment
3 Tiz a Homerun

I shall post the results of the previous two days of racing tomorrow. Until then, enjoy the races at Saratoga!

-Keelerman