2011 Breeders' Cup Classic Post Positions

Here are the post positions, jockeys, and morning line odds for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I):

1 Prayer for Relief/Rafael Bejarano/30-1
2 Flat Out /Alex Solis/6-1
3 Drosselmeyer/Mike Smith/15-1
4 Ruler On Ice/Garrett Gomez/30-1
5 So You Think/Ryan Moore/5-1
6 Ice Box/Corey Nakatani/30-1
7 Rattlesnake Bridge/Calvin Borel/30-1
8 Game On Dude/Chantal Sutherland/10-1
9 Stay Thirsty/Javier Castellano/12-1
10 Havre de Grace/Ramon Dominguez/3-1
11 Headache/Paco Lopez/30-1
12 Uncle Mo/John Velazquez/5-2
13 To Honor and Serve/Jose Lezcano/12-1

2011 Breeders' Cup Mile Post Positions

Here are the post positions and morning lind odds for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I):

1 Goldikova 7-5
2 Zoffany 20-1
3 Courageous Cat 8-1
4 Mr. Commons 20-1
5 Gio Ponti 4-1
6 Get Stormy 15-1
7 Jeranimo 20-1
8 Byword 12-1
9 Court Vision 30-1
10 Sidney's Candy 15-1
11 Strong Suit 10-1
12 Compliance Officer 50-1
13 Turralure 8-1

2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Post Positions

Here are the post positions and morning line odds for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I):

1 Take Charge Indy 30-1
2 Dullahan 8-1
3 Crusade 12-1
4 Drill 8-1
5 Hansen 10-1
6 Perspective 30-1
7 Creative Cause 7-2
8 Speightscity 20-1
9 Alpha 15-1
10 Union Rags 2-1
11 Daddy Long Legs 12-1
12 Fort Loudon 20-1
13 Optimizer 15-1

2011 Breeders' Cup Turf Post Positions

Here are the post positions and morning line odds for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I):

1 St Nicholas Abbey 9-2
2 Sarafina 5-2
3 Dean's Kitten 10-1
4 Stately Victor 30-1
5 Teaks North 20-1
6 Await the Dawn 7-2
7 Sea Moon 4-1
8 Brilliant Speed 20-1
9 Midday 4-1

2011 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile Post Positions

Here are the post positions and morning line odds for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I):

1 The Factor 7-2
2 Shackleford 7-2
3 Tapizar 20-1
4 Tres Borrachos 30-1
5 Wilburn 4-1
6 Irrefutable 12-1
7 Jersey Town 15-1
8 Caleb's Posse 5-1
9 Trappe Shot 3-1

2011 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint Post Positions

Here are the post positions and morning lind odds for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (gr. II):

1 Grand Adventure 20-1
2 Holiday for Kitten 30-1
3 Broken Dreams 20-1
4 Perfect Officer 12-1
5 Great Attack 20-1
6 California Flag 15-1
7 Hoofit 15-1
8 Regally Ready 3-1
9 Rapport 30-1
10 Havelock 9-2
11 Country Day 20-1
12 Camp Victory 12-1
13 Caracortado 4-1
14 Chamberlain Bridge 5-1

2011 Breeders' Cup Sprint Post Positions

Here are the post positions and morning line odds for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I):

1 Euroears 4-1
2 Giant Ryan 8-1
3 Aikenite 8-1
4 Hamazing Destiny 10-1
5 Jackson Bend 7-2
6 Force Freeze 10-1
7 Amazombie 5-1
8 Big Drama 5-2
9 Apriority 30-1

2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Post Positions

Here are the post positions for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II):

1 Gung Ho
2 Fantastic Song
3 Shksphere Shaliyah
4 Farraaj
5 Wrote
6 Coalport
7 Caspar Netscher
8 Majestic City
9 Daddy Nose Best
10 Animal Spirits
11 Excaper
12 Lucky Chappy
13 Finale
14 State of Play

Also-Eligible: Tequila Factor

2011 Breeders' Cup Marathon Post Positions

Here are the post positions for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Marathon (gr. III):

1 Birdrun
2 Baryshnikov
3 Meeznah
4 Pleasant Prince
5 Giant Oak
6 Brigantin
7 Harrison's Cave
8 Afleet Again
9 Cease
10 Eldaafer
11 A. U. Miner

2011 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic Post Positions

Here are the post positions for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I):

1 Miss Match
2 Pachattack
3 It's Tricky
4 Satan's Quick Chick
5 Ask the Moon
6 Royal Delta
7 Ultra Blend
8 Plum Pretty
9 Medaglia d'Amour
10 Super Espresso

2011 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf Post Positions

Here are the post positions for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I):

1 Dubawi Heights
2 Stacelita
3 Harmonious
4 Cambina
5 Nahrain
6 Announce
7 Aruna
8 Perfect Shirl
9 Shared Account
10 Distorted Legacy
11 Dynaslew
12 Mysty for Me

2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Post Positions

Here are the post positions for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I):

1 Questing
2 Candrea
3 Rocket Twentyone
4 Miss Netta
5 Grace Hall
6 Self Preservation
7 Putthebabiesdown
8 Homecoming Queen
9 My Miss Aurelia
10 Northern Passion
11 Weemissfrankie
12 Frolic's Revenge
13 Say a Noveno
14 Awesome Belle

2011 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint Post Positions

Here are the post positions for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I):

1 Irish Gypsy
2 Great Hot
3 Turbulent Descent
4 Champagnwe d'Oro
5 Musical Romance
6 Switch
7 Tar Heel Mom
8 Tanda
9 Golden Mystery
10 Tamarind Hall
11 Her Smile
12 Pomeroys Pistol
13 Shotgun Gulch

2011 BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF POST POSITIONS

Here are the post positions for the 2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II):

1 My Gi Gi
2 Dayatthespa
3 Up
4 Stopshoppingmaria
5 Stephanies Kitten
6 Sweet Cat
7 Royal Bonnie
8 Hard No to Like
9 Pure Gossip
10 Elusive Kate
11 Ann of the Dance
12 Dear Lavinia
13 Customer Base
14 Semolia Lemonade

2011 BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE PRE-ENTRIES ANALYSIS

Here are the pre-entries for the $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I):

Alpha

Creative Cause

Crusade

Daddy Long Legs (Second preference in the Juvenile Turf)

Drill

Dullahan (First preference in the Juvenile Turf)

Fort Loudon

Hansen (Second preference in the Juvenile Sprint)

Majestic City (First preference in the Juvenile Turf)

Optimizer

Prospective

Right to Vote

Take Charge Indy

Union Rags

Also Eligible

Sabercat

Speightscity

Although it has been confirmed that Dullahan will start here rather than in the Juvenile Turf, the field for this race remains very much in flux as Daddy Long Legs, Hansen, and Majestic City's goals are still unknown. A scratch from one would lead to Sabercat entering the race, and a second scratch would enable Speightscity to run.

The heavy favorite will be Union Rags, and rightly so. The undefeated colt is 3-for-3 with decisive victories in the Saratoga Special (gr. II) and the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) under his belt. In the Champagne, he encountered a great deal of traffic but still demonstrated an impressive turn of foot to win going away by five lengths. He has yet to race around two turns, but I don't believe that will be an issue here.

Creative Cause, Drill, and Alpha figure to have the best chance at pulling off a mild upset. Creative Cause and Drill met twice in grade I company out in California, with Drill defeating Creative Cause by a length in the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) and the latter turning the tables going two turns in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I). However, Drill emerged from the Norfolk with a slight fever, so it is possible that he is closer in talent to Creative Cause around two turns that it appears on the surface.

Alpha finished second to Union Rags in the Champagne, but was absolutely no threat whatsoever to the winner. He is capable of improving with maturity and while going two turns, but whether or not he will improve enough to catch Union Rags is the big question.

A pair of Europeans from the barn of Aidan O'Brien also make things interesting, as neither of them have raced on dirt before. They are Daddy Long Legs and Crusade. Obviously, the major question being asked is: how will they take to the dirt?, but Europeans have shipped in to win the Juvenile before, with Arazi and Johannesburg coming to mind off the top of my head. And of course, Biondetti ran well enough to be fourth in last year's Juvenile.

Fort Loudon swept through the Florida Stallion Series at Calder Race Course, but will be taking a big step up in class here. Hansen also has never faced this caliber of competition, but has won his only two starts by over twenty-five combined lengths. Dullahan, a half-brother to 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird, won the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity over Keeneland's Polytrack, but must prove himself routing on dirt. Majestic City, Optimizer, Prospective, Right to Vote, and Take Charge Indy will all be mild-to-huge longshots, but a couple of them may warrant a closer look during the coming days. All told, it should be a fascinating race.

-Keelerman

2011 BREEDERS' CUP DIRT MILE ANALYSIS

Here are the pre-entries for the $1,000,000 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I):

Aikenite (First preference in the Sprint)

Caleb's Posse (Second preference in the Sprint)

Jackson Bend (Second preference in the Sprint)

Jersey Town

Prayer for Relief (First preference in the Classic)

Rule

Shackleford

Sidney's Candy (First preference in the Mile)

The Factor (Second preference in the Sprint)

To Honor and Serve (First preference in the Classic)

Trappe Shot (Second preference in the Sprint)

Tres Borrachos

Uncle Mo (First preference in the Classic)

Wilburn

Also Eligible:

Tapizar

Irrefutable

Although sixteen have been entered, it's very possible that the field could consist of eleven or less, what with Aikenite, Prayer for Relief, Sidney's Candy, To Honor and Serve, and Uncle Mo all pointing toward other races and Caleb's Posse, Jackson Bend, and The Factor still in consideration for other events.

One of the main questions here is how fast the early pace will be. Obviously, the incredible three-year-old sprinter The Factor is the main speed of the race, but he is a need-the-lead type and has been known to wilt when he doesn't get it. In his last race, when he had to sprint hard early in the Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I) in order to get the lead, he tired late to finish fourth. Clearly, a :22 2/5, :45 3/5 pace is well within his capabilities and he did prove himself around two turns when he won the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn earlier this year. So, if he is able to use his speed to get clear and set a reasonable pace, he could prove extremely tough to catch.

On the other hand, will he get a clear lead? Rule, Shackleford, and Tapizar are usually on or very, very close to the pace, and Trappe Shot too has shown the ability to stay close in the past. Wilburn as well could be up involved in the early pace, although the giant colt is more likely to be in behind the leaders. While it's pretty clear that none of these horses possess the same blinding speed of The Factor, they could make it just hot enough up front to set the race up for a closer like Jackson Bend or Caleb's Posse. The latter won the Amsterdam Stakes (gr. II) and the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) during the Saratoga meet, defeated Uncle Mo in the King's Bishop, and is clearly at his best as a one-turn closer. The same goes for Jackson Bend, who won the James Marvin Stakes and the Forego Stakes (gr. I), both going seven furlongs at Saratoga, before running a huge second to Uncle Mo going a mile in the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) while attempting to close over a speed-favoring track. In my opinion, the pace will make this race: An uncontested pace set by The Factor will enable him to kick clear in the stretch, while a pressured, moderately quick pace would enable Jackson Bend to rally for victory. This is going to be a good one.

-Keelerman

2011 BREEDERS' CUP MILE PRE-ENTRIES ANALYSIS

Here are the pre-entries for the $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Mile:

Byword (GB)

Compliance Officer

Courageous Cat

Court Vision

Get Stormy

Gio Ponti (First preference in the Classic)

Goldikova (IRE)

Jeranimo

Mr. Commons

Sidney's Candy (Second preference in the Dirt Mile)

Strong Suit

Turallure

Zoffany (IRE)

First off, I should mention that Gio Ponti has been confirmed as a starter for this race and he will not contest the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I).

The biggest story here, and perhaps even of the Breeders' Cup itself, will be the magnificent Goldikova's quest to win her fourth Breeders' Cup Mile. Prior to Goldikova, no horse had won a Breeders' Cup race more than twice, so she is actually looking to double the standard. Many have questioned whether the six-year-old mare has lost a step this year, and perhaps she has, but I, for one, am of the opinion that she is still quite capable of winning this race yet again. For one thing, her losses this year have come against some extremely talented Europeans, including the likes of top miler Canford Cliffs and champion two-year-old male of 2010 Dream Ahead.

Her main competition this year will likely come from horses that she has beaten in previous editions of this race -- Gio Ponti and Courageous Cat. The runner-ups behind Goldikova in 2010 and 2009, respectively, both have held their form well and enter this year's cup with legitimate chances at pulling a mild upset. Gio Ponti is coming off of a strong victory in the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (gr. I), a race he won in 2010 prior to taking on Goldikova. Courageous Cat won the Shoemaker Mile (gr. I) over the talented miler Caracortado before missing by a neck to Turralure in the Woodbine Mile (Can-I) after striking the front to soon in Woodbine's long homestretch.

Speaking of Turralure, he will also be running here in an attempt to add another grade I win to his resume. He seems to be improving with each and every start, but does he have the turn of foot to match Goldikova and Gio Ponti?

Get Stormy and Sidney's Candy, second and third behind Gio Ponti in the Shadwell Turf Mile, are back for another try, although both will be mild longshots. Jeranimo and Mr. Commons, who ran 1-2 in the Oak Tree Mile (gr. II) earlier this month, are both talented and warrant consideration here. Zoffany has been a top European miler for a while now, but has run dismally in his last two races. Strong Suit and Byword ship in from Europe. Compliance Officer is a former claimer who has improved dramatically enough to take a shot at glory. And Court Vision? He won his first stakes race in 2007 and this will be his third appearance in the Breeders' Cup Mile. But he hasn't cracked the trifecta since winning last year's Woodbine Mile. Can he re-find his best stride on racing's biggest stage?

You can't claim this isn't a competitive race!

-Keelerman

2011 BREEDERS' CUP TURF PRE-ENTRIES ANALYSIS

Here are the pre-entries for the $3,000,000 Breeders' Cup Turf:

Await the Dawn (Second preference in the Classic)

Brilliant Speed

Dean's Kitten

Meeznah (First preference in the Marathon)

Midday (GB) (Second preference in the Filly & Mare Turf)

Stately Victor (Second preference in the Marathon)

Teaks North

Winchester

Sarafina (FR) (Second preference in the Filly & Mare Turf)

Sea Moon (GB)

St Nicholas Abbey (IRE)

Already, a couple of changes have occurred. The European filly Meeznah will indeed run in the Marathon, while Winchester has been removed from consideration. Thus, only nine horses are scheduled to head to post, five of them from Europe; and those five are expected to be the top five favorites.

Interestingly, the two favorites could be mares. Midday, winner of the 2009 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf and close runner-up last year, will try the turf for the additional furlong. Sarafina, third in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe in 2010 and a fairly strong seventh in that race this year, is also scheduled to contest this race rather than the Filly & Mare Turf. Among the colts, St Nicholas Abbey was the champion two-year-old male of 2009 and after a dismal year in 2010, has returned strongly this year. Already, he has won a major race over Midday and finished a strong fifth in the Arc after leading into the homestretch. Sea Moon, owned by Juddmonte Farms, has some decent efforts under his belt this year for Michael Stoute and could definitely win this race. So could Await the Dawn, who disappointed last time out but had been quite impressive before that. He was actually doubtful to make the Breeders' Cup after getting sick, but has recovered rapidly and so here he is.

The American hopefuls are, to be perfectly honest, just that -- hopefuls. While Brilliant Speed, Dean's Kitten, Stately Victor, and Teaks North are all respectable competitors, it is highly doubtful that they can defeat the quality Europeans that have shipped in for this race. Teaks North is the only one to have won a grade I race on turf -- he has actually won a pair of them -- but disappointed in his lone start at a mile and a half. Dean's Kitten was a close second to Arlington Million winner Cape Blanco in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. I), but Cape Blanco was subsequently discovered to have suffered a slab fracture of his knee during the running of the race. Stately Victory won the grade I Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) in 2010, but has never been as formidable on turf as on synthetics. Brilliant Speed, perhaps, has just enough stamina to go this far -- he did finish a close third in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) this year -- but was beaten by a very average European shipper last time out in the Jamaica Handicap (gr. I).

So my guess is that, barring a shocking upset, a European horse will claim the Breeders' Cup Turf for the fourth straight year, and for the sixth time in seven years.

-Keelerman

2011 Breeders' Cup Classic Pre-Entries Analysis

(This is the first in a series of fifteen posts analyzing the pre-entries for this year's Breeders' Cup. Enjoy!)

Here are the pre-entries for the final and most anticipated race of the Breeders' Cup -- the $5,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I).

Await the Dawn (First preference in the Turf)

Drosselmeyer

Flat Out

Game On Dude

Gio Ponti (Second preference in the Mile)

Havre de Grace (Second preference in the Ladies' Classic)

Headache

Prayer for Relief (Second preference in the Dirt Mile)

Rattlesnake Bridge

Ruler On Ice

So You Think (NZ)

Stay Thirsty

To Honor and Serve (Second preference in the Dirt Mile)

Uncle Mo (Second preference in the Dirt Mile)

Also Eligible: Ice Box

Nearly everyone (including me) is looking forward to a battle between the brilliant sophomore Uncle Mo and the magnificent older filly Havre de Grace. But if those two prove to be much the best of this field, I would be greatly surprised.

For Uncle Mo, this race will be his third start off of a sickness-induced layoff. Returned to the races in late August, he missed by a head in the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) at seven furlongs before dominating grade I winners Jackson Bend and Jersey Town in the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) going a mile, where he stopped the clock over a sloppy track in a blazing 1:33 4/5. A repeat of that performance would definitely put him in the mix here, but he had never raced farther than a mile and an eighth and hasn't gone around two turns since losing the Wood Memorial (gr. I) back in April.

Havre de Grace in nearly perfect this year, with her only loss in six starts coming by a nose to last year's Champion 3yo filly Blind Luck in the Delaware Handicap (gr. II). Since that performance, she has won the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) over Flat Out, and the Beldame Stakes (gr. I) under wraps by daylight. She enters the Classic as the possible favorite, and deservedly so, but she has still never won a race at a mile and a quarter (although she has just missed twice at that distance).

Flat Out, as mentioned above, lost the Woodward to Havre de Grace, but was beaten only a length. Previously, he had dominated the Suburban Handicap (gr. II) and finished a strong second to top older male Tizway in the Whitney Handicap (gr. I). Following the Woodward, he defeated a classy field in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) that included fellow Classic starters Drosselmeyer and Stay Thirsty. He does have an advantage over Havre de Grace and Uncle Mo in having won at a mile and a quarter, but nevertheless his two stakes wins this year have come at Belmont Park, so he must prove that he can win elsewhere in the Classic.

So You Think is undoubtedly the big question mark here, having never raced on dirt previously. But the New Zealand-bred was a monster in Australia last year and a monster in Europe this year, and has proven himself time and time again going a mile and a quarter against top-level competition. Intriguingly, he has already raced twice in October and will be making his third start in about five weeks in the Breeders' Cup. And those races weren't “nothing races” -- they were the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Fr-I) at Longchamp and the Champion Stakes (Eng-I) at Ascot, two of the biggest races in the world and with respective purses of over $5 million and $2 million. Are you worried that three races in five weeks will leave him too tired to win the Classic? Last year in Australia, he ran in group I races on October 9th, 23rd, and 30th -- then came back and ran third in the two-mile Melbourne Cup (Aus-I) on November 2nd -- with just two days’ rest. It's entirely possible that he will relish having a pair of recent prep races for the Classic.

Stay Thirsty and Game On Dude could potentially sew up Horse of the Year honors with a victory in the Classic. Stay Thirsty's major scores this year include the Travers (gr. I), Jim Dandy (gr. II), Gotham Stakes (gr. III), along with a second in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and a third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I). However, he has also finished seventh in the Florida Derby (gr. I) and twelfth in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), meaning that he has actually lost more races than he has won this year. He would need to impressively win the Classic -- with Havre de Grace and Flat Out failing to hit the board -- if he is to claim the top year-end honor. The same goes for Game On Dude, who—despite solid victories in the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) and Goodwood Stakes (gr. I)—has managed to lose, in chronological order, the Charles Town Classic (gr. III), the Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III), the Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I), and the Pacific Classic (gr. I). While he ran very well in the first of those three races, he was beaten by Flat Out in the Lone Star Park Handicap and would likely have to dominate his rivals in the Breeders' Cup to take home Horse of the Year.

In a year that lacks a clear division leader among the three-year-old males, To Honor and Serve, Rattlesnake Bridge, Prayer for Relief, Ruler On Ice, Stay Thirsty, and Uncle Mo will all try to stake their claim to the championship in the Classic. To Honor and Serve raced poorly early in the spring, took the first half of the summer off, and raced poorly in his return race. But he subsequently won an allowance race in impressive fashion and took down both Ruler On Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II). A win in the Classic could very well sew up the three-year-old championship.

Rattlesnake Bridge would be a longshot to win the award even with a dominating Classic win, for he has only a grade II stakes win on his resume this year and has been beaten in the Travers and the Pennsylvania Derby. But who knows? If he steps up and somehow wins by ten lengths, it would be hard to deny him the award.

Prayer for Relief was riding an impressive winning streak entering the Oklahoma Derby on October 16th, but a rough trip found him finishing third. A front-running colt, he has a lot of talent and will likely try to take the Classic field all the way on the front end. He doesn't really have much of a shot at Horse of the Year, but a Classic victory would all but guarantee him the three-year-old championship. Nevertheless, this is a huge step up in class and he will have to run the race of his life to win.

Ruler On Ice should have no trouble with the distance -- after all, he won the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) -- but has subsequently lost the Haskell Invitational (gr. I), the Travers Stakes (gr. I), and the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II). On the other hand, he displayed a new style in the Pennsylvania Derby, closing from far back over a speed-favoring track to finish second. Previously, his best running had come when racing near the pace. He'll be a bit of a longshot in the Classic, but I wouldn't count him out, and a victory would most definitely secure him the three-year-old championship.

Rounding out the field are Drosselmeyer, Gio Ponti, and Headache. Gio Ponti may or may not run -- he is cross entered in the Mile -- but his presence would definitely add intrigue to the race. As is the case with So You Think, he has never raced on dirt before but did finish second to Zenyatta in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic over a Pro-Ride synthetic track. He is bred to succeed on dirt, and the possibility certainly exists that he could relish the surface. Ten furlongs is arguably his best distance, so in no way would I count him out. Drosselmeyer, the 2010 Belmont Stakes winner, turned in a huge performance last time out while finishing second to Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over a speed-favoring track. While he should have no trouble with the distance of the Classic and could very well rally for a sizeable piece of the purse, he has not won a graded stakes race this year and will likely be one of the longshots here. Headache is having a good year, and enters the Classic off of a determined victory in the Hawthorne Gold Cup (gr. II) going ten furlongs. But he too is going to be a longshot here and it would be a surprise if he won.

On paper, I believe that Flat Out, Havre de Grace, and So You Think look like the ones to beat, but sentimentally, I've always liked Gio Ponti and would love to see him end his career with a burst of glory in the Classic. While he probably has a better chance at winning the Mile than the Classic, I do hope he runs in the big one against the best horses in the country, because I honestly believe he can win this race. I'm crossing my fingers that he runs in the Classic.

-Keelerman 

AN EARLY LOOK AT THE DIVISION LEADERS

As usual, the Breeders' Cup will go a long way toward deciphering the leaders of each division in horse racing: Who is the leading older male? Turf female? Male sprinter? As the sun sets across the Kentucky landscape on November 5th, after the 28th Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) is in the history books, many of the Eclipse awards will have been decisively locked up. But with just over three weeks to go, who are the frontrunners for the division? Here are my opinions on the top three horses in each catagory.
Older Males

1. Acclamation - Has been dominant all summer with three grade I wins, but he's out for the year with an injury.

2. Tizway - Has won two grade I races, but will have to prove himself at a mile and a quarter in the BC Classic.

3. Flat Out - Jockey Club Gold Cup win was impressive, but was beaten by Tizway in the Whitney.

Older Females

1. Havre de Grace - Last two victories, including the Woodward against males, have been very impressive. BC Classic is next.

2. Blind Luck - Defeated #1 in the Delaware Handicap, but will miss the Breeders' Cup and is probably done for the year.

3. Stacelita - Has won a pair of grade I's on turf and will be the likely favorite for the BC Filly & Mare Turf.

Three-year-old Males

1. Stay Thirsty - Jim Dandy/Travers duo and strong second in the Belmont is more than any other sophomore has done.

2. Uncle Mo - Dominating Kelso victory suggests that this is more to come, but he hasn't won a grade I this year.

3. Animal Kingdom - Derby winner is out with an injury, but has still accomplished more than most.
Three-year-old Females

1. It's Tricky - Grade I wins in the Acorn and Coaching Club American Oaks leave her as the narrow leader.

2. Plum Pretty - Kentucky Oaks winner easily defeated #1 in the Cotillion Stakes, but had previously lost to her twice.

3. Royal Delta - Authorative Alabama win over both #1 and #2 was impressive, but regressed a bit in the Beldame.

Turf Males

1. Cape Blanco - Is the leader of the division off of three grade I turf stakes, but he's been retired with an injury.

2. Acclamation - Was racing incredibly well in California, but is out for the year with a foot problem.

3. Gio Ponti - Closed furiously to win the Shadwell Turf Mile, but as great as he is, it is still his only win this year. If he could win the BC Mile, it might potentially be enough to make him the division champion.
Turf Females

1. Stacelita - Easy victories in the Beverly D and the Flower Bowl have rocketed her to the lead of the division.

2. Dubawi Heights - Has two grade I wins under her belt, but was defeated decepively easy by #1 in the Beverly D.

3. Never Retreat - First Lady winner has five graded stakes wins under her belt this year, but will skip the Breeders' Cup.
Male Sprinters

1. Giant Ryan - Vosburgh winner will ride a five-race winning streak into the BC Sprint.

2. Euroears - Lost all chance shortly after the start of the Vosburgh, but has been sharp otherwise this year.

3. The Factor - Top three-year-old sprinter fell to defeat in the Ancient Title, but a win in the BC Sprint would put him back at the top.
Female Sprinters

1. Sassy Image - Injured her hoof when last in the Ballerina Stakes, but had previously won two grade I's and may still make the BC Filly & Mare Sprint.

2. Turbulent Descent - Magnificent sophomore sprinter won the Test Stakes and will be the one to beat in the BC Filly & Mare Sprint.

3. Switch - Decent third in the TCA Stakes should set her up strongly for the BC; won a grade I at seven furlongs back in January.
Two-year-old Males

1. Union Rags - Was simply sensational in the Champagne Stakes; BC Juvenile should be his to lose.

2. Creative Cause - Sharp winner of the Norfolk Stakes, he's proven around two turns and on dirt.

3. Drill - Finished a distant second to #2 in the Norfolk, but didn't get the greatest of trips and came out of the race with a fever.
Two-year-old Females

1. My Miss Aurelia - Easy win in the Frizette stamps her as a true high-quality filly.

2. Weemissfrankie - Oak Leaf winner possesses a strong late kick; will try and catch #1 in the Juvenile Fillies.

3. Stephanie's Kitten - Darley Alcibiades winner could potentially run in the BC Juveniles Fillies or Juvenile Fillies turf.

-Keelerman

KEELERMAN'S BREEDERS' CUP RANKINGS ~ October 11th, 2011

(Horses may only appear on one list at a time.)

CLASSIC
1 So You Think
2 Flat Out
3 Havre de Grace
4 Uncle Mo
5 Tizway

TURF
1 Acclamation
2 Nathenial
3 Sea Moon
4 Champ Pegasus
5 St Nicholas Abbey

MILE
1 Goldikova
2 Gio Ponti
3 Terralure
4 Courageous Cat
5 Get Stormy

SPRINT
1 Euroears
2 The Factor
3 Force Freeze
4 Amazombie
5 Big Drama
LADIES' CLASSIC
1 Plum Pretty
2 Zazu
3 Royal Delta
4 It's Tricky
5 Ultra Blend

FILLY & MARE TURF
1 Midday
2 Stacelita
3 Dubawi Heights
4 Sarafina
5 Cozi Rosie

DIRT MILE
1 Jackson Bend
2 Twirling Candy
3 Trappe Shot
4 Wilburn
5 Awesome Gem

FILLY & MARE SPRINT
1 Switch
2 Turbulent Descent
3 Sassy Image
4 Pomeroys Pistol
5 Musical Romance

TURF SPRINT
1 Ben’s Cat
2 Chamberlain Bridge
3 Magoo
4 Unzip Me
5 Havelock

MARATHON
1 A.U. Miner
2 Eldaafer
3 Drosselmeyer
4 Ruler On Ice
5 Cease

JUVENILE
1 Union Rags
2 Creative Cause
3 Alpha
4 Drill
5 Currency Swap

JUVENILE FILLIES
1 My Miss Aurelia
2 Stopshoppingmaria
3 Weemissfrankie
4 Grace Hall
5 Miss Netta

JUVENILE TURF
1 Power
2 Finale
3 Red Duke
4 Dullahan
5 Animal Spirits

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
1 Elusive Kate
2 Lyric of Light
3 Stephanie's Kitten
4 Northern Passion
5 Dayatthespa

JUVENILE SPRINT
1 Majestic City
2 Vexor
3 Hunt Crossing
4 Gypsy Robin
5 Seeker

WEEKEND STAKES THOUGHTS -- October 11th, 2011

* I have always been of the opinion that Gio Ponti's losing efforts over the last year or two have been more due to circumstances -- such as soft turf -- than him being past his prime. On Saturday, Gio Ponti was finally able to re-affirm his class when he dived out of a pocket in deep stretch to win the Shadwell Turf Mile (gr. I) by a half-length. Give credit to jockey Ramon Dominguez, who kept Gio closer to the pace than usual and gave him every opportunity to run his best race. According to rough calculations, Gio Ponti closed his final quarter in :22.76 and his final eighth in :11.47. His next start will likely come in the Breeders' Cup Mile against the three-time winner of the race, Goldikova. Sidney's Candy, who ended up third after setting the pace, was perfectly ridden by Joel Rosario. Sidney's Candy appears to be the kind of horse who needs an uncontested lead to run his best race, regardless of how fast or slow he is going. Rosario gave him this ride, putting his mount two lengths clear of the field in the early stages. And thus, Sidney's Candy responded courageously in the stretch to end up being beaten just 1 1/2 lengths. Get Stormy also ran well to finish second, but was simply no match for the fast-closing Gio Ponti, even though he did close his own final quarter in :23.26. The big disappointment was the European-invader Zoffany, who was never closer than six lengths from the front while trailing for a good part of the race. He eventually finished last, 12 3/4 lengths behind Gio Ponti.

* It's hard to say just how long it will take Dullahan to rid himself of the title "Mine That Bird's half-brother." But he did take a good step toward escaping that image with an authoritative victory at 17-1 in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (gr. I). A poor trip, in which he steadied in traffic on the first turn, left him nearly twelve lengths off the pace in the early stages, but nevertheless he charged home while five wide to win by three-quarters of a length. However, it's hard to say whether his spectacular stretch run was due to his own furious rally or the fact that Majestic City, who held a 2 1/2 length lead passing the eighth pole, seemed to be tiring quickly. After all, Majestic City is bred to be a sprinter and was likely racing farther than he wants to go. But give credit to Dullahan, for he did have to overcome his troubles. Optimizer kicked home strongly to finish third, showing a pretty good turn of foot, and I wouldn't be surprised if he will have something to say about the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf next month.

* One thing you can say about Never Retreat is that she never retreats. It seems as though she is always closing in at the finish, and in her tenth start of the year recorded her first grade I victory in Keeneland's First Lady Stakes. Under the leading rider of the meet, Julien Leparoux, the mare sat fourth early on before finishing strongly on the outside to be up in time to win by 1 1/2 lengths. Her final time of 1:34.08 was actually .09 seconds faster than Gio Ponti ran in the Shadwell Turf Mile, although admittedly Never Retreat did not have to get out of a pocket in the stretch. Although her effort was exceptional, Never Retreat will not be heading to the Breeders' Cup, as there is not really a race there that would fit her. Together, one of two three-year-olds in the field, came on well to be second after a slow beginning, and looks like an improving filly who could have an impact on the division in the future. Surprisingly, Theysken's Theory, coming off of a strong second to Winter Memories in the Garden City Stakes, was far back throughout and simply never threatened.

* Holiday for Kitten is clearly a horse-for-the-course. Coming off of a sixth-place finish at Parx Racing, the three-year-old filly returned to the sight of her win in the Giant's Causeway Stakes earlier this year and held off a determined run from Musical Romance to win the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (gr. II) by a head. Owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, the filly tracked a quick pace set by Rapport through the early stages and pounced for the lead turning for home under jockey Kendrick Carmouche. However, she was never really able to kick clear from the field, and a challenge soon came from Musical Romance. The latter filly had gotten a perfect trip along the rail behind the early leaders and was able to turn in her best effort. She came home strongly and would have won had the race been another stride longer, but Holiday for Kitten just managed to get her head down first. The final time for the six-furlong event was 1:08.72, just .42 seconds off the track record. Switch, the odds-on favorite, was a bit of a disappointment. A wide trip compromised her chances to some degree, but while she closed 2 1/4 lengths inside the final eighth, she could manage no better than third. I got the impression that she didn't handle the Keeneland Polytrack as well as she does dirt, or even Hollywood Park's Cushion Track for that matter. For the winner, the five-furlong Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint might make more sense than the Filly & Mare Sprint at seven furlongs on dirt.

* Speaking of the Turf Sprint, Havelock stamped himself as one of the main contenders for that Breeders' Cup race with a tremendous late-running victory in the Woodford Stakes (gr. III) going 5-1/2 furlongs. Ninth early on, he looked impossibly far behind in the stretch under Robby Albarado but somehow managed to close into the strong final fractions to win by a length in 1:01.96, just .29 off the track record. However, his furious rally may have been a bit of a deception, for the early fractions of :21.15 and :43.88 fried any horse near the front end. Pacesetter Varsity, a 6-1 shot, faded to finish last of twelve. Great Mills, second early on, ended up tenth. Magoo, leader after three-eighths, tired late to sixth. The 1-2-3-4 finishers were racing 9-6-7-10 after a quarters\ of a mile. One could actually argue that Magoo ran the best race; after all, he was only beaten 3 3/4 lengths. If a more reasonable pace were to arise in the Breeders' Cup, I would expect Magoo to be right in contention.

* While Santa Anita's main track is still very fast, it is clear that it is not the same pavement-resembling surface that it was during the spring meet. This difference in racetrack speed was never clearer than on Saturday, when the spectacular sprinting sensation The Factor took on a field of five older runners in the Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I) going six furlongs. During the spring meet, The Factor dueled through a half-mile in :43.41 in the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (gr. II), kicked clear of the field, and held off the close of Sway Away in style. In the Ancient Title Stakes, The Factor dueled with huge longshot Sirocco Strike through a half-mile in :43.80. Then he folded. Entering the homestretch, it was clear that he was in deep trouble. He was drifting outward, not kicking away, and the top older sprinter Amazombie was breathing down his neck under Mike Smith. Give The Factor credit—he was in front passing the eighth pole in :55.95, but not even he could accomplish the impossible. Amazombie blew past him easily and went on to win by three-quarters of a length over Irrefutable, with Mensa Heat closing from last to finish third. The final time was 1:08.24. Interestingly, the same situation that occurred in the Woodford Stakes occurred here. The horses racing 1-2-3 in the early stages faded to finish 4-5-6. The horses that hit the finish line 1-2-3 were 5-4-6 early on. And so we must give credit to The Factor for finishing the best of the pacesetters, and if he can escape with a more reasonable pace in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I) he could most likely be a contender.

* Union Rags is clearly the favorite right now for not only the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but for next year's Kentucky Derby. In the Champagne Stakes (gr. I), he broke poorly, got bumped around down the backstretch, found himself in a pocket turning for home, had to steady hard and dive to the outside to escape it, and still exploded to win by 5 1/4 lengths. His turn of foot when finally clear of traffic was simply breathtaking. Alpha, the second choice, came on well enough for second but was in no way a threat to the winner. However, he is bred to mature as he gets older and should relish additional distance as well a two turns, so he is definitely one to watch for the future. As for seventh-place finisher Power World, he entered the race as the most heavily raced youngster in the field with four starts under his belt, but had never shown any form of early speed until Saturday, when he sprinted away to lead through fractions of :22.74 and :45.84. Not surprisingly, he backed up to be beaten seventeen lengths.

* The fillies’ equivalent of the Champagne, the grade I Frizette Stakes at the same one-mile distance, may have also turned out a Breeders' Cup favorite. My Miss Aurelia stamped herself as a legitimate contender for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies by turning back the challenge of Stopshoppingmaria in the stretch to win the race in convincing fashion. After a slight bumping incident at the start, she recovered nicely to set a quick pace of :22.64, :46.02, and 1:10.38 under Corey Nakatani. She then drew away powerfully under a strong hand ride in the stretch to score by 5 1/2. Most impressive was her final quarter mile in :24.84, which gave her a final time of 1:35.22, .33 seconds faster than Union Rags ran in the Champagne. Bred to stay a distance, My Miss Aurelia should be more than capable of handling two turns in the Breeders' Cup, and nine furlongs next year in races like the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I). Stopshoppingmaria didn't get the best of trips, breaking poorly and getting a lot of dirt in her face, but when asked for run in the stretch she just couldn't offer a challenge to the winner. Miss Netta actually ran a tremendous race for third. After a poor break, she was rank and fought the rider down the backstretch and found herself 17 1/2 lengths off the pace with a half-mile to go, and seven lengths behind the next farthest back runner. Nevertheless, she displayed a good kick in the stretch to get up for third, 3 1/2 lengths behind Stopshoppingmaria. She could enter the Breeders' Cup as a legitimate longshot capable of hitting the board at a price.

* Corey Nakatani demonstrated perfectly the effects of a slow pace in the grade I Jacaica Handicap at nine furlongs on the turf, allowing his mount, Western Aristocrat, to lull his rivals to sleep with a bizarrely slow pace of :26.27 and :52.20. Heavily favorite Brilliant Speed tracked the leader throughout the race while never more than a half length behind, and -- when asked to pick up the pace -- responded with a furious final three-eighths in :34.23. The only problem was that Western Aristocrat accepted the challenge with a final three eighths in :34.13. This was more than enough to turn back Brilliant Speed's bid, who ended up finishing a length behind the upset winner. Wilkinson came on for third -- with a final eighth in :11.32. It's safe to say that no horse was tiring at the finish, for even last-place finisher Seal Cove charged home his final eighth in :11.17.

* Headache earned himself a trip to the Breeders' Cup Classic next month with a hard-fought victory in Hawthorne's ten-furlong Hawthorne Gold Cup (gr. I). Under a good ride from Pasco Lopez, Headache rated well off of the early lead before grinding down his opponents late for a half-length triumph. The final time was a slow 2:04.68, but the pace was not quick and it is possible that Headache could turn in a faster time with a faster pace in front of him. Favored Rule tracked the early pace, but couldn't off a response late and ended up finishing seventh. However, it might not have been a distance limitation that caused his poor showing, for he was already twelve lengths after running nine furlongs, a distance at which he has run very well in the past. The other favorite, Giant Oak, was caught wide throughout and was rank down the backstretch, hauling himself into contention long before he should have. Subsequently, he flattened out in midstretch and ended up fifth. Cease, who finished third beaten just a half-length, might have actually turned in the best performance, for he was the only horse anywhere near the early pace to hand around for the finish. Was the track perhaps more tiring than it appeared to be?

* Aruna will be heading to the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic after a strong, stretch-running victory in Keeneland's Spinster Stakes (gr. I). Reserved well off of the early pace, she had to wait for room on the far turn, but when angled to the far outside at the top of the stretch, she came on strongly to defeat Pachattack by three-quarters of a length. She had previously raced only on turf, so whether or not she will handle the Churchill dirt remains open to question, but she seems to relish nine furlongs and with Havre de Grace heading to the Classic, she's got as good a chance as anyone else. Pachattack ran well enough to be second, but at this point she just doesn't seem quite up to actually winning a grade I race.

* Don't you just love California Flag? The remarkable seven-year-old gelding won the Morvich Stakes (gr. III) in both 2008 and 2009, skipped the race in 2010, and came back this year to win it again for his third victory in the race. He showed a different dimension in this year's renewal, as the usually front-running gelding was content to sit second early as Excessive Passion set a quick pace of :21.41 and :43.42 before wearing him down to win by a half-length in 1:11.91. While it is clear that he does his best racing over Santa Anita’s unique downhill turf course, if he can keep his form until 2012, the Breeders’ Cup will be returning to his home track then.

-Keelerman

ARUNA WINS THE JUDDMONTE SPINSTER STAKES!

Aruna proved she can handle Polytrack just as well as turf this afternoon at Keeneland, rallying past horses on the far outside to win the $500,000 Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (gr. I) in impressive fashion.

Under Ramon Doninguez, Aruna, the 2-1 favorite in a large field of twelve, settled off the pace as Embur's Song set a quick pace of :23.39 and :46.41. Tapitsfly was sitting a length behind in second, followed by Dynazaper in third. Those three continued to lead all the way around the racetrack and were three in a row as the field entered the homestretch, having run the opening three-quarters of a mile in 1:10.76. But a large cavalcade of talented runners were charging behind them, and soon it was Pachattack, closing from mid-pack, who took over the lead. But Aruna was charging strongly and simply flew home while six or seven wide to be up in time to win by three-quarters of a length. Pachattack finished second as the 5-2 second choice, while 27-1 shot La Gran Bailadora edged out Protesting by a head for fourth. The final time was a sharp 1:47.88.

The winner is trained by Graham Motion and may make her next start in the $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I) in early November.

Earlier on the card, Animal Spirits charged hard under Robby Albarado to win the $150,000 Bourbon Stakes (gr. III) by a half-length over Coalport. Trained by Albert Stall, Jr., the colt settled off the pace as 7-2 second choice Here Comes Frazier led the field around the racetrack. Turning for home Here Comes Frazier appeared to still have something left, but bumped into the rail and fell in the stretch. Fortunately, both horse and rider escaped injury, as did the remainder of the field. The fall left Coalport on the lead, but Animal Spirits was charging furiously and got up in the final strides to win the race. The final time was 1:44.24.

Lucky Chappy turned in an impressive rally to be up for third after a slow beginning, while Splendiferous finished fourth. It is worth noting that Burn the Mortgage, who finished ninth, lost any and all chance when forced to steady hard and dive out of the way when Here Comes Frazier fell. Thus, he is likely better than his poor showing implies.

-Keelerman

GIO PONTI WINS THE SHADWELL TURF MILE!

Prior to this afternoon, Gio Ponti had not won a race since taking the 2010 Shadwell Turf Mile (gr. I) in sharp fashion. A return to that race yielded identical results this year, as Gio Ponti rallied furiously in the final sixteenth to win the Shadwell Turf Mile for the second straight year.

Ridden by Ramon Dominguez, Gio Ponti settled into the fourth spot early on as Sidney's Candy raced away to an uncontested lead through fractions of :23.63 and :47.08. Get Stormy was tracking him in second, followed by Wise Dan. The three-year-old European invader Zoffany, sent off as the second choice, was well off of the pace.

Entering the homestretch, Sidney's Candy still had the lead through three-quarters in 1:10.91. But Get Stormy was up on the outside to challenged, as was Wise Dan. Gio Ponti was trapped down on the rail in a pocket without racing room.

But in the final 110 yards of the race, Gio Ponti showed why he is a three-time Eclipse award winner. Bulling his way out of the pocket, he set his sights on the leaders in front of him and simply exploded. In a matter of strides, he turned a nearly impossible situation into a brilliantly, narrow victory in a sharp 1:34.17.

Get Stormy edged out Sidney's Candy for second, while Wise Dan finished fourth.

-Keelerman

AMAZOMBIE WINS THE ANCIENT TITLE STAKES!

Amazombie took advantage of a blazing speed duel up front to win the $250,000 Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I) by a length.

Under Mike Smith, Amazombie settled well off the pace in fifth as heavily favored The Factor dueled hard for the early lead Sirocco Strike through blazing fractions of :21.27 and :43.80. Square Eddie was sitting behind them in third, followed by Irrefutable, Amazombie, and Mensa Heat.

The Factor turned for home with the lead, but was clearly exhausted from his early efforts and was beginning to drift badly. Thus the patiently-ridden Amazombie blew past him in the stretch to win in 1:08.24. Irrefutable came on to edge Mensa Heat for second, while The Factor faded to be a distant fourth. Sirocco Strike and Square Eddie completed the order of finish.

-Keelerman

UNION RAGS WINS THE CHAMPAGNE STAKES!

Union Rags stamped himself as the favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile -- and for that matter, next year's Kentucky Derby -- when he overcame a great deal of trouble to win the $400,000 Champagne Stakes (gr. I) in decisive, dominating fashion.

Under Javier Castellano, Union Rags got off to a less-than-stellar start when bumped by Right to Vote. However, he recovered nicely to settle off the pace as Right to Vote raced away to set the pace at 26-1. The opening fractions were quick: :22.74 and :45.84.

Turning for home, Union Rags found himself in a pocket behind Right to Vote and sandwiched between two other runners. Castellano tried to guide him to the outside but there was no room. Then he tried to send him inside but there was no room. Then Takes the Gold drifted to the outside, giving Union Rags an opening. The colt didn't hesitate for a second, and under a strong hand ride by Castellano he burst through with speed and power to win drawing away by five lengths in 1:35.55.

Second-choice Alpha rallied well for second, but was in no way a threat to the winner. Right to Vote stayed on well for third while Takes the Gold finished fourth.

-Keelerman

DULLAHAN WINS THE DIXIANA BREEDERS' FUTURITY!

Dullahan rallied furiously in the stretch under jockey Kent Desormeaux to upset the $400,000 Dixiana Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) by one length.

Trained by Dale Romans and owned by Donegal Racing, Dullahan sat about mid-pack early on as 50-1 shot Musical Flair sprinted away to take the early lead while setting fractions of :22.67 and :46.15. He was being tracked by favored Majestic City, while Take Charge Indy was in a good spot on the outside.

Majestic City boldly ran past Musical Flair on the far turn and opened up a clear lead entering the homestretch. Out Entourage and Take Charge Indy were gamely giving chase, but not making up any ground. However, Dullahan was charging hard on the far outside and wore the favorite down to win in strong fashion.

Optimizer came on to be third, while Our Entourage finished fourth. The final time was 1:43.12.

-Keelerman

MY MISS AURELIA WINS THE FRIZETTE STAKES!

My Miss Aurelia will surely spark some mild comparisons to the superfilly Rachel Alexandra after the two-year-old daughter of Smart Strike blew away a quality field in the $300,000 Frizette Stakes (gr. I) this afternoon for Stonestreet Stables and George Bolton.

Under jockey Corey Nakatani, who is having an incredible day at Belmont with six winners from the first eight races, My Miss Aurelia broke well and sprinted away along the inside to grab the early lead from Spare Change. Even-money favorite Stopshoppingmaria, from the Todd Pletcher barn, was back in third behind the leaders after a less-than-stellar break. Harbor Mist was fourth, followed distantly by Holiday Soiree and very distantly by Miss Netta, who broke very poorly and found herself impossibly far behind.

The opening fractions were pretty quick, :22 3/5, :46 flat, and 1:10.38. Turning for home Stopshoppingmaria made her bid for the lead on the outside, by My Miss Aurelia had plenty left and turned back her challenge to draw away for a four length victory. Miss Netta amazingly came on to be third, while Holiday Soiree finished fourth. The final time was 1:35.22.

My Miss Aurelia stamped herself as the clear favorite for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies four weeks from today with her dominating score.

-Keelerman

NEVER RETREAT WINS THE FIRST LADY!

Never Retreat, coming off of a sharp win in Woodbine's Canadian Stakes (gr. II), rallied past pacesetter Wasted Tears in Keeneland's stretch to win the $350,000 First Lady Stakes (gr. I) by a length.

With Julien Leparoux in the saddle, Never Retreat settled off the pace as Wasted Tears blasted away from the gate to grab the early lead. Favored Daveron was down along the inside in a good spot fifth, while the pair of well-bet sophomores Theysken's Theory and Together were well off the pace.

Entering the homestretch Wasted Tears still held the lead, but was beginning to drift out. This allowed Daveron to sneak through along the inside to make a bid for the lead. But Never Retreat charged past them all on the far outside to win the race decisively in 1:34 flat. Together put in a big run to finish second, a head in front of Daveron. Wasted Tears tired to fourth.

-Keelerman

HOLIDAY FOR KITTEN WINS THE THOROUGHBRED CLUB OF AMERICA!

Holiday for Kitten pulled off a 15-1 upset in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (gr. II) at Keeneland this afternoon, desperately holding off a late run from Musical Romance to win by a nose.

Ridden by jockey Kendrick Carmouche, the filly -- who is owned by Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey -- broke quickly and bounded away to sit second behind pacesetter Rapport in the early stages, with Musical Romance in behind them on the rail in fourth. 4-5 favorite Switch was back far off the pace and very wide down the backstretch and around the turn, while second-choice Shotgun Gulch was back in last. The opening fractions were quick, with Rapport flying through an opening quarter in :21.96 and a half in :44.61.

Turning for home Holiday for Kitten pounced and took over the lead decisively. Switch was gearing up on the extreme outside, but was not closing in quickly enough. In the end it was Musical Romance, benefitting from a perfect trip, who came charging hard on the far outside. It looked as though she was on her way to victory, but Holiday for Kitten got her nose down on the wire in front and stopped the clock for six furlongs in 1:08.72.

Switch came on to finish third, while Rapport held on for fourth.

-Keelerman

HAVELOCK WINS THE WOODFORD STAKES!

5-1 shot Havelock turned in a tremendous late rally over the Keeneland turf course to win the opening stakes race of the day, the $150,000 Woodford Stakes (gr. III) by a length.

Under jockey Robby Albarado, Havelock rated well off of a blazing early pace of :21.15 and :43.88. Angled to the outside entering the stretch, he had a lot of ground to make up on leaders Country Day, Perfect Officer, and Great Attack, making his task look simply impossible. But he simply flew home in the final furlong to get up in time to stop the clock in a blazing 1:01.96.

Perfect Officer held second clearly over Country Day, with Uno Ducksy finishing fourth at 55-1. Great Attack, Magoo, A Deihl, Streakin' Mohican, Despite the Odds, Great Mills, Goldzar, and Varsity completed the order of finish.

-Keelerman

BREEDERS’ CUP COUNTDOWN – October 8th, 2011

Another terrific weekend of major Breeders’ Cup prep races are scheduled to be run over the next two days, including some of the country’s biggest juvenile races in the Champagne and Frizette Stakes (both grade I). It going to be an exciting day. Let’s handicap!

Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (gr. I)

This race is led by last year’s winner and three-time Eclipse champion GIO PONTI. The remarkable six-year-old horse has done a lot of things in a long career, but some claim that he has lost a step with age, as he has not won a race since last year’s Turf Mile. However, I believe that it has been circumstances that have prevented Gio Ponti from visiting the winners circle more frequently, and I see no reason why he won’t win this race again and set himself up for a run at the Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. I). SIDNEY’S CANDY is the second choice, having turned in some good efforts in races like this before, and should run much better than he did in a failed dirt sprint experiment last time out. SOCIETY’S CHAIRMAN ran second in this race a year ago and is coming into it this year in arguably better form. DANCE AND DANCE ran huge in the Woodbine Mile (gr. I) last month, finishing sixth beaten just 1 ¾ lengths after breaking in the air and encountering serious stretch traffic. European-invader ZOFFANY has kept good company in Europe, finishing a close second to superstar Frankel in the St. James Palace Stakes, and should definitely be in contention. WISE DAN has won two straight mile races, including the Firecracker Handicap (gr. II) on turf, but this is a pretty big step up in class. GET STORMY won a pair of grade I’s early this year, but some minor injuries have plagued him during the last few months. However, he should be back in good form now and has a grade I win going a mile over this turf course already.

Keelerman: Gio Ponti, Dance and Dance, Zoffany

J.R.: Dance and Dance, Society’s Chairman, Gio Ponti

Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I)

MAJESTIC CITY is the morning line favorite off of three sprint victories and a strong second (disqualified to third) in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I), but he has shown some potential distance limitations and this may be too far for him. SHARED PROPERTY and TAKE CHARGE INDY finished 1-2 in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III), so both of them have already run well in a route race and over a synthetic track. GUNG HO won the Sunday Silence Stakes on turf with an impressive late run – closing his final quarter in under :23 seconds – and I believe that he will run just as well here today, for he did break his maiden over a synthetic track. OUR ENTOURAGE broke his maiden routing on turf for Todd Pletcher, and may run well at a price.

Keelerman: Gung Ho, Our Entourage, Shared Property

J.R.: Take Charge Indy, Shared Property, Majestic City

First Lady Stakes (gr. I)

A pair of three-year-old fillies are the morning line favorites for this one-mile turf event. They are TOGETHER, a solid European stakes competitor, but one who has not won since July 2010, and THEYSKEN’S THEORY, another European who has had much better luck this year and recently finished second to Winter Memories in the Garden City Stakes (gr. I). However, they will be up against some solid older fillies including WASTED TEARS, who won seven straight races in 2009 and 2010. A true turf miler, her last two losses can be forgiven as she was attempting to win major races going 9 and 9.5 furlongs, which is really out of her range. If she can get an easy lead here, which doesn’t appear to be impossible, she could prove tough to catch. NEVER RETREAT is having a terrific year and enters off of a very sharp victory in the grade II Canadian Stakes at Woodbine. She too could prove tough in the stretch. DAVERON is a perfect 3-for-3 this year, and this race will likely be the final of her career. The German-bred filly possesses a tremendous turn of foot, which she displayed at Saratoga when winning the Ballston Spa Stakes (gr. II) by 1 ¾ lengths. Her spots have been chosen carefully, and I believe that she will end her career with a brilliant victory to secure a grade I win.

Keelerman: Daveron, Wasted Tears, Theysken’s Theory

J.R.: Wasted Tears, Daveron, Never Retreat

Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (gr. II)

SWITCH figures to be the heavy favorite here. After spending most of the year competing in route races, she is finally returning to a sprint race, where she has probably done her best running. After all, she boasts a pair of grade I wins at seven furlongs, as well as a strong second to Dubai Majesty in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I). SHOTGUN GULCH showed an affinity for the Keeneland main track earlier this spring when she upset the grade I Vinery Madison Stakes, but three subsequent starts have all yielded losses. However, her last race was a strong, late-running and narrowly beaten third in the Presque Isle Downs Master Stakes (gr. II), so she figures to be in good form for today’s race. MUSICAL ROMANCE, winner of the Masters Stakes, is also here but will likely have to run hard early to get good position from post one. RAPPORT won the Victory Ride Stakes (gr. III) last year, but will be making her first start since November 2010.

Keelerman: Switch, Holiday for Kitten, Shotgun Gulch
J.R.: Switch, Shotgun Gulch, Musical Romance

Champagne Stakes (gr. I)

Unlike last year’s Champagne Stakes, where the clear favorite was the eventual juvenile champion Uncle Mo, this year’s Champagne lacks a standout. The morning line favorite is UNION RAGS, who won the Saratoga Special (gr. II) going seven furlongs by 7 ¼ lengths. That was over a sloppy sealed track, but if he takes to the distance and fast track he could be tough to beat. ALPHA figures to be the second choice off of a six-length score in a maiden special weight going seven furlongs for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. He has a magnificent pedigree that should easily carry him this far. POWER WORLD was in good form for his first three efforts, including a pair of seconds in graded stakes company, but didn’t take to the sloppy track in the Hopeful Stakes where he finished a distant fifth. However, he is bred to stretch out and should love the return to a fast track. TAKES THE GOLD easily broke his maiden going a mile over this track, so he’s proven under the conditions of this race, and NO SPIN should also be in contention off of a strong fourth in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III).

Keelerman: Alpha, Union Rags, Power World

J.R.: Takes the Gold, Alpha, Union Rags

Frizette Stakes (gr. I)

Six juvenile fillies will head to the Belmont starting gate with their eyes on a starting berth to next month’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I). The 6-5 morning line favorite is STOPSHOPPINGMARIA, who broke her maiden at Saratoga by almost ten lengths in a sharp 1:09.87 for six furlongs. With the same connections as top three-year-olds Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty, I believe it’s very possible that this filly could be on her way to championship honors at the end of the year. Her main competition should come from MY MISS AURELIA, a Steve Asmussen-trainee who is undefeated in two starts. She broke her maiden going 5-1/2 furlongs – with Stopshoppingmaria finishing a troubled third in her debut race – and subsequently returned to take the Adirondack Stakes (gr. II) by a neck. MISS NETTA could also prove an intriguing contender off of an easy victory going six furlongs at Saratoga in her only start to date. A daughter of Street Sense out of a Dynaformer mare, she should have no trouble stretching out. SPARE CHANGE, from the Phipps stable, could also be in contention off of a seven-furlong maiden victory.

Keelerman: Stopshoppingmaria, Spare Change, My Miss Aurelia

J.R.: Miss Netta, Stopshoppingmaria, My Miss Aurelia

Jamaica Handicap (gr. I)

BRILLIANT SPEED headlines this nine-furlong grade I event. Coming off of a sharp win in the nine-furlong Saranac Stakes (gr. III), in which he closed his final eighth in a spectacular :11.37, he looks just about unbeatable in this spot. CASINO HOST is the second choice off of a pair of solid efforts in major turf stakes races, but TOP SURPRISE may prove to be Brilliant Speed’s stiffest challenger. He is coming off of an exceptional victory in the one-mile Summing Stakes over this course, in which he closed his final quarter in roughly :22 flat.

Keelerman: Brilliant Speed, Top Surprize, Casino Host

J.R.: Brilliant Speed, Casino Host, Seal Cove

Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I)

Barring the impossible, there is really only one question to be asked about the outcome of the Ancient Title Stakes at Santa Anita Park – how much will THE FACTOR win by? The brilliant sophomore absolutely dominated a terrific field of sprinters in the Pat O’Brien Stakes (gr. I) in August at Del Mar, running the multiple grade I winner Smiling Tiger off his feet and holding off serious runs from Camp Victory and Crown of Thorns to win the race by 1 ¾ lengths – in his first start in over four months. He is also 2-for-2 over the Santa Anita main track, winning the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) going seven furlongs and broke the six furlong track record here when breaking his maiden. I can’t really see him losing. AMAZOMBIE will probably provide The Factor with his stiffest challenge, as he has been very consistent in all seven of his starts this year. Against grade I company, however, he could only manage a pair of thirds in the Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. I) and the Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I). IRREFUTABLE was second to next-out Vosburgh (gr. I) winner GIANT RYAN in the Smile Sprint Handicap (gr. II), but has subsequently finished sixth in both the Teddy Drone Stakes and the Pirates Bounty Stakes. MENSA HEAT has won three straight on synthetic and turf, but was only a claimer earlier this year on the Santa Anita main track. SQUARE EDDIE returned from a layoff to run seventh in the Pirates Bounty, but ran well over this track earlier this year.

Keelerman: The Factor, Amazombie, Square Eddie
J.R.: The Factor, Amazombie, Irrefutable

Hawthorne Gold Cup (gr. II)

A solid field of ten has turned out for this year’s running of the Hawthorne Gold Cup, led by last year’s runner-up GIANT OAK. Since finishing a fast-closing second here last autumn, he has won the Donn Handicap (gr. I) and was placed first in the Clark Handicap (gr. I) via disqualification of the winner. Admittedly, his last few efforts haven’t been all that great, but the mile and a quarter distance of today’s race, as well as a bit of a drop in class, should help him run back to his best performances. However, he will have to catch the speedy RULE from the Todd Pletcher barn. Last time out, the talented colt finished a strong third behind next-out grade I winners Havre de Grace and Flat Out in the Woodward Stakes. He looms as a possible lone speed, and should be tough to catch even at today’s distance. HEADACHE’s powerful late run earned him a victory in the Cornhusker Handicap, but could only manage a fifth in his most recent start, the The Woodward Stakes. Nevertheless, I believe he will rebound sharply today. Also in the mix could be WHERE’S STERLING, the Philip H. Iselin winner, MISTER MARTI GRAS, the Washington Park Handicap (gr. III) winner, and MARISTAR, a troubled third in that race.

Keelerman: RULE, GIANT OAK, HEADACHE

J.R.: HEADACHE, RULE, MISTER MARTI GRAS

One other race worth mentioning is the first on the card at Belmont, a seven-furlong main track allowance optional claiming race. The event marks the return of three proven stakes horses – 2010 Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner Boys at Tosconova, 2011 Sham Stakes (gr. III) winner Tapizar, and 2010 Pasco Stakes winner Uptowncharlybrown. All have been recuperating from injuries, and while it would not be surprising if they are all a bit rusty in their returns, they should make their presence felt here without a doubt, and I would be greatly surprised if one of them doesn’t win.

OTHER PICKS

Woodford Stakes (gr. III)

Keelerman: Havelock, Varsity, Great Attack

J.R.: Magoo, Great Attack, Varsity

Oak Tree Mile Stakes (gr. II)

Keelerman: Mr. Commons, Calimonco, John Johny Jak

J.R.: Mr. Commons, Blue Chagell, Victory Pete

-Keelerman