Here are my picks (as well as J.R.'s) for Friday's Breeders' Cup races. Enjoy!
JUVENILE SPRINT
It's hard to look past Baffert's SECRET CIRCLE, for the undefeated juvenile has won both of his starts in impressive fashion with speed figures quite superior to those of his rivals. From gate six, he should be able to work out a terrific trip and I don't expect to see him get beat. HOLDIN BULLETS broke his maiden for Wesley Ward in April and hasn't raced since, but Ward is good with juveniles and should have his colt ready to race. SHUMOOS is a group III winner in Europe, but the filly will be making her debut on dirt and would be a bit of a surprise. Look for JAKE MO and BLACKY THE BULL to be coming late, while TRINNIBERG tries to hang on late.
Keelerman
1. Secret Circle
2. Holdin Bullets
3. Shumoos
4. Trinniberg
J.R.
1. Blacky the Bull
2. Secret Circle
3. Shumoos
4. Jake Mo
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
To me, this is one of the most indecipherable races of the entire Breeders' Cup. That said, I like several fillies here including DEAR LAVINIA and STOPSHOPPINGMARIA. The former is a European filly who has shown promising form and seems like a filly that could shock the world at huge odds. STOPSHOPPINGMARIA has proven herself a capable competitor on dirt, but will be trying turf for the first time here. Nevertheless, the progeny of her sire More Than Ready seem to excel on the grass and she has been training well over it. ELUSIVE KATE, another European shipper, has won four straight including a group I. I would not be surprised at all if she wins, but I prefer Dear Lavinia among the Euros. Up, from Aidan O'Brien's barn, could be any kind. She was also pre-entered in the Juvenile Fillies on dirt, so I have the suspicion that this one may be something special. SOMALI LEMONADE has been impressive so far, but must overcome starting from gate fourteen. DAYATTHESPA, STEPHANIE'S KITTEN, SWEET CAT, HARD NOT TO LIKE, PURE GOSSIP, and CUSTOMER BASE all look tough too.
I could go either way on the top two, but that said --
Keelerman
1. Dear Lavinia
2. Stopshoppingmaria
3. Customer Base
4. Somali Lemonade
J.R.
1. Up
2. Somali Lemonade
3. Pure Gossip
4. Sweet Cat
FILLY & MARE SPRINT
On the surface, two fillies seemingly stand out. They are TURBULENT DESCENT, the 6-5 morning line favorite, and SWITCH, 3-1 second choice and runner-up in this race last year. TURBULENT DESCENT is a monster around one turn, with a dominating victory three months ago in the Test Stakes (gr. I) to prove it. She is even talented enough to have won a pair of grade I’s going two turns. However, that Test Stakes was her final prep race for this, and while that has been the plan all along, I do worry about her facing her elders for the first time off of a three-month layoff. SWITCH has not won a race since January, but perhaps that is because she has been busy finishing second to the likes of Havre de Grace and Blind Luck. A monster at seven furlongs during the winter, she tuned up for this race with a narrow loss in the TCA Stakes and may be good enough to catch Turbulent Descent late. CHAMPAGNE D'ORO is my huge longshot to hit the board, for she ran a much-improved race last time out in the Lady's Secret Stakes (gr. I) following throat surgery and is cutting back to her favorite distance. POMEROYS PISTOL could be a contender for the win, but I can't really see her getting a good trip from gate twelve.
Keelerman
1. Switch
2. Turbulent Descent
3. Champagne d'Oro
4. Great Hot
J.R.
1. Champagne d'Oro
2. Switch
3. Tamarind Hall
4. Turbulent Descent
(J.R. is also aware of the throat surgery on Champagne d'Oro -- however, he is bold enough to pick her to win whereas I only put her third. :) )
JUVENILE FILLIES
MY MISS AURELIA is the one to beat based off of her dominating victory in the Frizette (gr. I), but if you believe there are chinks in her armor there are plenty of other fillies to pick. WEEMISSFRANKIE is 3-for-3 in California, including a victory in the Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I), and should be flying from off the pace in the stretch. GRACE HALL won the seven-furlong Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) and subsequently proved herself around two turns in the Blue Hen Stakes. QUESTING and HOMECOMING QUEEN invade from Europe and most prove themselves on dirt. MISS NETTA broke terribly in the Frizette and dropped way, way behind, but still managed to come on for third. This race could go to any number of these fillies, and I've gone back and forth many times, but I'm going to take the favorite in MY MISS AURELIA and hope she can carry her one-turn form around two-turns.
Keelerman
1. My Miss Aurelia
2. Grace Hall
3. Miss Netta
4. Weemissfrankie
J.R.
1. Grace Hall
2. Miss Netta
3. My Miss Aurelia
4. Northern Passion
FILLY & MARE TURF
While this race could also be a wide-open affair, I do believe that STACELITA is the one to beat. A four-time group I winner in Europe, she has subsequently turned into the finest turf mare in the United States, with victories in the Beverly D. and Flower Bowl Stakes (both grade I) and a strong third in the United Nations (gr. I) against males. She has been dealing with a bit of an eye problem, but is training beautifully and will be very tough to beat. That said, it is worth noting that she was beaten in Europe this year by ANNOUNCE, who has shipped in from France to try and take down this prize. She has been competing against some of the very best in Europe, including Sarafina and Cirrus des Aigles, and may give Stacelita all she can handle. NAHRAIN, another European, is undefeated in four starts including a nose victory over Announce last time out in a group I, but could a mile and three-eighths be just a bit too far for her? SHARED ACCOUNT won this race last year and enters this year's edition in sneaky good form. DUBAWI HEIGHTS has won five of her last six, including two grade I’s, but was no match for STACELITA in the Beverly D. and may be going too far here. CAMBINA always puts in some sort of furious late rally -- she's been known to close her final eighth in :10 and change -- but seems to always be coming too late. Could the added distance here help her chances of pulling a tremendous upset? Don't count her out!
Keelerman
1. Announce
2. Stacelita
3. Shared Account
4. Cambina
J.R.
1. Stacelita
2. Announce
3. Aruna
4. Nahrain
LADIES' CLASSIC
This race should decide the Eclipse award for champion three-year-old filly. Morning line favorite PLUM PRETTY won the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) here in the spring, and dominated in the Cotillion Stakes (gr. II) last time out, but I feel her last race was bias-aided and that she could be vulnerable in here with pace pressure. ROYAL DELTA destroyed Plum Pretty going ten furlongs in the Alabama Stakes (gr. I) and subsequently finished a distant second to Breeders' Cup Classic contender Havre de Grace in the Beldame Stakes (gr. I) -- by no means a bad effort! She has been training very well and I believe that she is capable of beating the morning line favorite. IT'S TRICKY has beaten both of the above-mentioned fillies this year -- but has also been beaten by both of them. Her last couple of races haven't been terrific, but she could very well rebound with a strong effort here and should not be counted out. MISS MATCH finished fourth in the Goodwood Stakes (gr. I) against males and could be a live longshot, but would likely need a blazing pace in order to win. ULTRA BLEND is ultra-consistent, but may be better at slightly shorter distances.
Keelerman
1. Royal Delta
2. Plum Pretty
3. Ultra Blend
4. It's Tricky
J.R.
1. Ultra Blend
2. Royal Delta
3. It's Tricky
4. Plum Pretty
Enjoy the first day of the most magnificent racing in the country! Who do you like in these races?
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment