In a normal year, the $500,000 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs -- despite being a grade I race -- is merely one of those late-season goals for horses that either performed poorly in the Breeders' Cup or didn't run in it for some reason or another. Occasionally, it attracts late-maturing three-year-olds looking to get an early start on their following year's campaign -- Blame and Misremembered ran 1-2 in the 2010 Clark and subsquently went on to win major grade I races the next year.
However, this year's Clark has a different feel entirely. This is not just any old grade I race. This is a race that could settle some Eclipse awards.
Here are the entries:
PP/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Ruler On Ice 4-1
2 Alma d'Oro 20-1
3 Demarcation 15-1
4 Stately Victor 30-1
5 Mission Impazible 12-1
6 Flat Out 5-2
7 Pleasant Prince 20-1
8 Headache 12-1
9 Mister Marti Gras 12-1
10 Will's Wildcat 30-1
11 Wise Dan 4-1
12 Prayer For Relief 5-1
13 General Quarters 20-1
Two horses, Flat Out and Ruler On Ice, stand to take home an Eclipse award if they can win this race. Flat Out already has credentials than earn him consideration for the Champion Older Male award, and a victory here would further bolster his chances. Ruler On Ice has only one stakes win to his credit this year, but it was a big one -- the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). He has also finished second in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) and third in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I), Haskell Invitational (gr. I), and Sunland Derby (gr. III). A win in the Clark would give him two grade I wins, the same total as narrow division leader Caleb's Posse. And I believe that the Belmont/Clark double trumps Caleb's Posse's admirable but slightly less prestigious King's Bishop/Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile duo.
But will Flat Out or Ruler On Ice take the win today? That's debatable. Both have things to prove. Flat Out is been extremely consistent this year, but has made three starts at Churchill Downs and failed to hit the board in any of them. Nine furlongs may be a tad too short for Ruler On Ice, and in addition, he must overcome breaking from the rail. So who else could beat them?
Well, for one there is Wise Dan. An extremely versatile four-year-old gelding, he is coming off of a dominating victory in the Fayette Stakes (gr. II) at this distance. However, his biggest success has come over turf and synthetics, so he'll have to prove himself over dirt if he is to win today.
Then there is Prayer For Relief, a three-year-old colt trained by Bob Baffert who has wins in the Iowa Super Derby (gr. II), West Virginia Derby (gr. II), and Iowa Derby (gr. III). Most recently, he finished a close but troubled third in the $400,000 Oklahoma Derby behind Redeemed, who returned last week to take the Discovery Handicap (gr. III) in sharp fashion. However, the front-running colt may have trouble getting the lead from gate eleven.
Mission Impazible nearly took the grade I Stephen Foster Handicap here at Churchill during the spring meet, missing by a neck to Pool Play is a strong performance. However, he hasn't really returned to that form in three subsquent starts and ran ninth beaten eight lengths in the Fayette Stakes last time out. Nevertheless, that was over Polytrack, so it is possible that he is ready to return to form at a price.
Pleasant Prince and Headache return from running in the Breeders' Cup, with Pleasant Prince finishing fourth in the Marathon and Headache running last in the Classic. Both are eligible to improve off of those efforts, with Pleasant Prince having considerable back class at shorter distances and Headache not getting a very good trip in the Classic. To me, Headache looks to have the best chance at upsetting the two favorites.
Mister Marti Gras and Alma d'Oro, the 1-2 finishers in the Ack Ack Handicap (gr. III) at Churchill during the Breeders' Cup week, take steps up in class but are certainly not completely out of consideration. Demarcation was fifth in the Ack Ack, but the late-closer was beaten only three lengths while having his stretch kick compromised by the bizarrely slow pace. He was fourth in last year's Clark -- although he was disqualified to last for interference -- and on his best day, he is capable of a performance good enough to put him in contention here.
Stately Victor, General Quarters, and Will's Wildcat would all trigger large payoffs if they were to win, with the first two being best on turf and the latter being more of a sprinter/miler type. But in a wide-open race like this one, it's not safe to count anyone out.
My selections are:
1 Ruler On Ice
2 Flat Out
3 Headache
4 Mission Impazible
-Keelerman
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