3:19 ET - Happy Breeders' Cup Friday everyone! The sun is shining in Louisville where late this afternoon, the first six of fifteen Breeders' Cup races will be run at Churchill Downs.
A bit of rain yesterday and last night has left the main track labeled muddy and the turf course yielding. While the track is clearly drying out, it's hard to say how fast the main track will be in an hour when the Juvenile Sprint is run, and I can't really see the turf course drying out too quickly.
The first three races of the card have been run, with the opener being taken in impressive fashion by the 3-2 favorite Rothko, who was winning his third straight race for trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Julien Leparoux. The second race brought an objection and disqualification, for three-year-old Congo crossed the wire first but was subsequently placed second for interference with Chilled, who was declared the winner. The third race, the grade III $100,000 Ack Ack Handicap, was taken by Mister Marti Gras, who charged furiously in the stretch to win by a neck over Alma d'Oro. Glenwood Canyon rallied for third, while pacesetter Gladding tired to fourth.
There doesn't appear to be anything like a bad or good rail so far today, but perhaps there could be a bit of a bias toward closers? It's really difficult to say, but I was surprised by how easily Gladding gave in after setting a very slow pace of :25.53 and :51.03. We'll have to keep watching the races closely to see if a bias is a possibility.
Further updates will come throughout the day.
3:47 - Well, the track seems to be playing fairly today, as Calvin Borel sent Will's Wildcat to the lead along the rail and held off the challenge of Wine Police to win the Jimmy V. Stakes by two lengths in :56.67. So we've seen horses win at Churchill today be leading along the rail and by closing on the outside.
Of course, if there's a turf bias, we won't know until the Breeders' Cup turf races get underway for there are no turf undercard races.
4:31 - Absolutely no bad rail today. Secret Circle is one spectacular horse, for after running an opening quarter mile in about :21 seconds flat, he still managed to kick clear in the stretch and hold off a late challenge from Shumoos to win by a length. The interesting thing about Shumoos is that she rallied furiously along the rail to finish second. So, thus far today, we have seen horses run huge by sweeping up on the outside or by rallying up the fence. And we've seen them win on the lead. No bias today on the main track.
The next race is the fourteen-horse Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), where I finally decided to pick Dear Lavinia. But I really could see just about any horse take this race.
5:16 - Well, I didn't think Stephanie's Kitten was as good on turf as on Polytrack, but she proved me long today when she rallied furiously in the final sixteenth to catch pacesetting Stopshoppingmaria in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. To be perfectly honest, Stephanie's Kitten may just have earned herself a shot at the Eclipse award for champion two-year-old filly of the Juvenile Fillies goes to a longshot later this afternoon. It's something to think about.
But once again, the European fillies were unable to make a serious impact on the race, with Up finishing the best to be fourth. Disappointing were Elusive Kate and Dear Lavinia, who really didn't show much at all while finishing off the board. Elusive Kate was wide throughout, but still.
Next up is the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I), where Turbulent Descent is currently 9-5 and Switch 7-2. This surprises me a bit, for I would have figured Turbulent Descent to be more like 6-5 or 7-5, but many of the longshots have been bet down, so perhaps many of the bettors feel that this race is ripe for upset.
5:47 - As usual, a huge upset in a Breeders' Cup race. Musical Romance probably shouldn't have been 20-1, for she has been running well all year, but I sure wasn't expecting to see her in the winner's circle for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She can apparently run well over just about anything, for she has big performers over dirt, slop, and synthetic tracks. Poor Switch just can't seem to get lucky. Second in this race a year ago, she didn't get the best of breaks and found herself last early on. Forced to circle the field on the extreme outside, she put in a strong late run but could only finish second yet again, beaten 1 1/2 lengths. Turbulent Descent had an even worse trip, getting squeezed at the start and checking sharply on the backstretch before charging up four-wide to take the lead in the stretch before tiring to finish fifth.
Up next is the Juvenile Fillies, where My Miss Aurelia will take on Weemissfrankie and Grace Hall in a battle for the division championship. My Miss Aurelia and Grace Hall are currently the co-favorited at 3-1, with Weemissfrankie 4-1. Miss Netta has been bet down to 7-1, less than half of her morning line odds of 15-1. This should be a good race.
6:29 - My Miss Aurelia sewed up the two-year-old filly championship with an authorative victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I). She did get a fairly easy trip, tracking a moderate pace two wide, but absolutely blew the race wide open when asked for run turning for home. Grace Hall gave it her best shot, but proved no match while finishing well clear of Weemissfrankie. The latter put in a big run around the turn, but flattened out in the stretch.
The Filly & Mare Turf is next on the card, where Stacelita is currently the 5-2 favorite.
7:31 - Perfect Shirl? Well, she wasn't quite as big a longshot as Shared Account last year, but at 25-1 she is still one of the largest upsets in the history of the Filly & Mare Turf. She gamely held off challenges on both sides to win the biggest race of her career by a half-length, but both Stacelita and Aruna encountered serious traffic trouble and either could have won if they had been luckier. Announce was scratched shortly before the start of the race.
Next up is the final race on the card, the $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), where Royal Delta is currently the 9-5 favorite. Plum Pretty is 3-1.
7:45 - Royal Delta capped off a strong three-year-old season with a decisive victory in the Ladies' Classic under the lights at Churchill Downs, wearing down It's Tricky to win by about two lengths. Plum Pretty looked good turning for home after setting a slow pace, but simply couldn't quicken with the closers and wound up finishing fifth as Pachattack and Ultra Blend came on to complete the superfecta.
It's fairly safe to say that Royal Delta will take home the Eclipse award as Champion 3yo filly, for she beat all of the other contenders for the award in this race. It's Tricky will probably receive some votes off of wins in the Acorn (gr. I), Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I), and runner-up efforts in the Alabama (gr. I) Cotillion (gr. II) and the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, but Royal Delta has beaten her in two of their three meetings and won the big matchup tonight.
Guess it's time to get ready for tomorrow's Breeders' Cup card, where nine more championship races are to be run including the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I). I hope you had fun!
-Keelerman
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