Here are my selections for the final nine races of the Breeders' Cup:
Marathon
The morning line favorite is A. U. MINER, who was placed third in this race last year after finishing fourth despite serious interference. The horse is in good form this year, most recently finishing a strong fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup while trying to close over a speed-favoring track. That said, the three Europeans could prove very tough to beat if they take to the dirt. MEEZNAH, a filly by Dynaformer, won a group II going 14.5 furlongs in Ireland and has proven herself to be a very talented stayer. HARRISON'S COVE, from the barn of Aidan O'Brien, has been competing in handicap races with some decent success but is taking a huge step up in class. BRIGANTIN is bred to be a turf horse, so it's hard to say how he will take to the dirt, but he has run third in a pair of group I races at 20 furlongs, including the Ascot Gold Cup. In addition, he beat eventual Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (Eng-II). Racing in the silks of Team Valor International, he could be a tough horse to beat if he handles the dirt. ELDAAFER won this race last year and returns in good form in an attempt to defend his title. BIRDRUN and CEASE will try and take this race on the front end, but I really don't see either of them staying the distance.
Keelerman
1. Meeznah
2. A. U. Miner
3. Eldaafer
4. Cease
J.R.
1. Pleasant Prince
2. Eldaafer
3. Brigantin
4. A. U. Miner
Juvenile Turf
This race looks almost as confusing as the Juvenile Fillies Turf yesterday. The European colts look like the ones to beat, with CASPAR NETSCHER looking best to me. Recently fifth in a sixteen-horse group I event despite considerable traffic, he will be stretching out beyond six furlongs for the first time but nevertheless looks like a serious contender. FARRAAJ has made four starts in England, never finishing worse than second but being soundly beaten last time out in his group stakes debut. WROTE is the only one to have raced beyond seven furlongs, competing in the one-mile Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Eng-II), but was tiring at the finish just a bit and one must question whether he's up to the usually quicker pace of an American race. MAJESTIC CITY and FINALE look like the best of the American contingent, but Majestic City has raced exclusively on synthetic tracks and will be trying turf for the first time, but has earned some big speed figures. Finale won the Summer Stakes (Can-II) for Todd Pletcher, has been training beautifully, and looks like a serious contender. Expect SHKSPEARE SHALIYAH and LUCKY CHAPPY to be putting in serious runs late.
Keelerman
1. Caspar Netscher
2. Majestic City
3. Finale
4. Lucky Chappy
J.R.
1. Shkspeare Shaliyah
2. Excaper
3. Caspar Netscher
4. Majestic City
Sprint
With one of the smallest fields of the entire Breeders' Cup, you would think that the Sprint would be one of the easiest races to handicap. Wrong! I find this race very confusing. BIG DRAMA is the morning line favorite, but he has raced only once since January and missed his final prep for this due to a fever. While he could take this on talent alone, this year's renewal looks tougher than last year's, where Big Drama got a clear lead and just kept on going. JACKSON BEND enters off of three terrific one-turn races, but shortens up to six furlongs. Expect him to be absolutely flying late in the race. EUROEARS ran last in the Vosburgh Stakes (gr. I) after a very troubled start, but had previously been racing well and warrants serious consideration despite the fact he will be breaking from the rail. AMAZOMBIE looks good off of a late-running win in the Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I) and is 3-for-4 on dirt. While he did get an ideal pace setup in the Ancient Title, it's very possible he could get it again today. GIANT RYAN has won six straight but his Vosburgh win was bias-aided. HAMAZING DESTINY was second in this race a year ago and is in sneaky good form. FORCE FREEZE finished a strong second in the Vosburgh, but he too was aided by the bias. AIKENITE has a big win here in the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II), but is better with more ground. APRIORITY was in terrific form during the first half of the year, but various issues have cost him any serious chance in his most recent two starts. He could return to form at a very good time today.
See how tough this race is? :)
Keelerman
1. Amazombie
2. Euroears
3. Jackson Bend
4. Force Freeze
J.R.
1. Apriority
2. Force Freeze
3. Big Drama
4. Hamazing Destiny
I really don't know what to think of this race. I've thought long and hard about picking Euroears to win, but worry that he will break poorly and get locked in behind Giant Ryan. I do know that Amazombie has been training brilliantly and that he should get the pace setup needed for him to run his best race. Jackson Bend should be charging furiously late, but this may just be a tad bit too short for him. But I won't be surprised at all if he wins. I certainly respect Big Drama, but I just don't know if he will be fit enough to win this under the circumstances.
Turf Sprint
Another terribly confusing, fourteen-horse field. Last year, I loved CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE for the entire month leading up to the race before jumping off the bandwagon at the last moment. I won't make that mistake again this year. Even though he has drawn gate fourteen, I feel that he is capable of overcoming the wide draw and taking this race for the second straight year. He has been training beautifully as well. PERFECT OFFICER sat close to a blazing pace in the Woodford Stakes and was just outfinished in a good performance. The same goes for GREAT ATTACK. He was even closer to that pace while coming off of a six-month layoff and tired after taking the lead, but should be sharper today. CARACORTADO has a whole lot of class, and while he hasn't run this short in a long time and could simply mow them down in the final sixteenth because he is that good. Expect to see the filly BROKEN DREAMS take a good run at the leaders at the top of the stretch and don't expect to see her tire. REGALLY READY won the grade III Turf Sprint Stakes here at Churchill during the spring meet and took the Nearctic Stakes (Can-I) last time out by a neck, so don't count him out either. HAVELOCK is consistent, but had a really good pace setup in the Woodford Stakes and may have trouble catching these from gate ten. We'll see.
Keelerman
1. Chamberlain Bridge
2. Perfect Officer
3. Caracortado
4. Broken Dreams
J.R.
1. Great Attack
2. Country Day
3. Regally Ready
4. Hoofit
Dirt Mile
The question is how quick will the pace be? If THE FACTOR gets away with an easy lead, he could prove impossible to catch. But if SHACKLEFORD and TAPIZAR, who both drew directly to his outside, try and stay with him early it could set the race up for a closer. I will take a shot and say that closer will be JERSEY TOWN. I don't believe that the complexion of the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) favored him at all, and his distant third-place finish may have been a result of that. I see him dropping back into mid-pack and making a good move in the stretch to take the lead and hold off the deep, deep closers. TRAPPE SHOT is the morning line favorite off of a fourth-place finish in the Vosburgh Stakes, where he was not helped by the bias, but one must question whether he can get the distance having not tried a route race since last year. But last year was when he finished second to eventual Champion 3yo colt Lookin at Lucky in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I), and this is only a one-turn mile, so he should be tough here. WILBURN is a three-year-old taking on elders after three straight wins, and should also be right there in the stretch. Count him out at your own risk. CALEB'S POSSE, who defeated Uncle Mo in the seven-furlong King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) two starts back, should also be dangerous.
Keelerman
1. Jersey Town
2. Wilburn
3. Caleb's Posse
4. The Factor
J.R.
1. Wilburn
2. Trappe Shot
3. Caleb's Posse
4. Tapizar
Turf
Will the Europeans sweep the superfecta? I think that is one of the biggest questions being asked. The American contenders don't look very strong, and the Euros look fabulous. But which Euro? MIDDAY won the 2009 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf and finished second in that race last year, but will try the boys this time around for the added distance. SARAFINA is one of the finest fillies in Europe with many group I wins to her name. She always fires and should be very dangerous. AWAIT THE DAWN was looking like a potential superstar until he got very sick during the summer. He recovered in time to train for this race, but enters off a several month layoff and may not be ready. Nevertheless, he may simply be talented enough to win. SEA MOON missed a six furlong workout on Thursday due to the turf course being closed and hasn't raced in two months, so although he is immensely talented he may not be sufficiently prepared. ST NICHOLAS ABBEY beat Midday earlier this year in the Coronation Cup (Eng-I) and ran fifth in the Arc. Expect him to be on or near the lead turning for home.
Keelerman
1. Await the Dawn
2. Sea Moon
3. Sarafina
4. Midday
J.R.
1. Sea Moon
2. Sarafina
3. Midday
4. St Nicholas Abbey
For me, it's very difficult to separate the Europeans. I've gone back and forth numerous times, originally choosing Sarafina before finally settling on Await the Dawn before switching to Sea Moon, then back to Await the Dawn. I would pick Sea Moon if he hadn't missed that Thursday workout, and I actually still may if I change my mind again later this afternoon. He is lightly raced and has a lot of potential. If I change my pick, I will announce it on my blog prior to post time.
Juvenile
I can't really see past UNION RAGS in this spot despite the fact that he will be making his two-turn debut. I see him settling into good position early from gate ten and exploding away from the field at the top of the stretch in much the same manner that My Miss Aurelia did yesterday. CREATIVE CAUSE won the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita over fellow Juvenile contender DRILL, but may not offer as much value as the latter, who didn't get the greatest of trips that day and came out of the race sick. ALPHA finished second to Union Rags in the Champagne and has a lot of potential, but will have to improve a great deal in order to win. CRUSADE and DADDY LONG LEGS ship in from Europe for Aidan O'Brien, but neither are proven on dirt. HANSEN is undefeated in two starts at Turfway and may try to take the field gate-to-wire. TAKE CHARGE INDY and PROSPECTIVE have been training well and may hit the board at a price, while DULLAHAN is clearly a serious contender but may prefer turf and polytrack.
Keelerman
1. Union Rags
2. Drill
3. Take Charge Indy
4. Creative Cause
J.R.
1. Drill
2. Union Rags
3. Optimizer
4. Hansen
While I do believe Union Rags will win this in sharp fashion, I am certainly aware that he is not a lock and J.R. may be right about Drill pulling off a mild upset.
Mile
Can GOLDIKOVA make history by winning her fourth straight Breeders' Cup Mile? Many feel that she has lost a step this year, but I don't agree. And even if she has, she can still win this race in sharp fashion. The only thing I can see beating her is soft ground, which is certainly a possibility but it should be fine. GIO PONTI was second to her in this race last year and enters off of a victory in the Shadwell Turf Mile (gr. I). A six-year-old with a potent late kick, if he can get the jump on Goldikova in the stretch he could prove extremely difficult to beat. COURAGEOUS CAT finished second to TURALLURE last time out in the Woodbine Mile (Can-I), but probably made the lead too soon. Expect to see him flying strongly at the finish. Three-year-old MR. COMMONS could put in a good run for John Shirreffs, and the other Europeans ZOFFANY, BYWORD, and STRONG SUIT could all contend, but I feel that Goldikova can do it again.
Keelerman
1. Goldikova
2. Gio Ponti
3. Courageous Cat
4. Mr. Commons
J.R.
1. Courageous Cat
2. Goldikova
3. Zoffany
4. Gio Ponti
J.R. feels that Goldikova will get buried along the rail and be unable to escape in time to catch Courageous Cat. Hopefully, that will not happen, for it would be immensely disappointing for Goldikova to end her career with a traffic-laden loss, but it the possibility does exist.
Classic
The big race of the day, and really of the year, is the 28th renewal of the $5,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I). There are all kinds of terrific storylines, but unless there is an unlikely dead-heat, only one horse can win.
My pick is FLAT OUT, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time out. Unlike the two morning line favorites, Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace, he has a victory at ten furlongs under his belt and is in the best form of his career. He has been training just beautifully at Churchill Downs and appears to be sitting on the race of his life. Perhaps he drew a bit too close to the rail, but he should nevertheless be able to work out a good trip coming from behind.
UNCLE MO, the Champion 2yo male of 2010 and winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) last year, is the morning line favorite. The Kentucky Derby favorite during the spring, he missed the Triple Crown and much of the summer due to a rare liver disease that could have ended his racing career. But he got back on track with a close second in the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) at the end of August going seven furlongs and subsequently dominated the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) winning with ease over Jackson Bend while earning a 118 Beyer speed figure. However, he has never won beyond a mile and a sixteenth and has never even raced beyond a mile and an eighth, so the Classic distance is a major question. But if he truly is the great horse many believe him to be, he can win on raw talent alone.
HAVRE DE GRACE couldn't quite match strides with the best fillies in the land last year, but the now four-year-old has turned into one of the most brilliant horses in the country and the leading contender for Horse of the Year. Trained by Larry Jones, she has won five of her six starts this year and defeated Flat Out in the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) going nine furlongs. Last time out in the Beldame Stakes, she absolutely dominated Royal Delta in the Beldame Stakes (gr. I) under no urging whatsoever. Royal Delta returned to win the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I) last night. While Havre de Grace has lost both of her starts at ten furlongs, those losses came by a neck and a nose to the magnificent champion filly Blind Luck. So don't think she can't get the distance just because she hasn't won at the distance.
SO YOU THINK is the big question mark. He has proven himself as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, ten furlong horse in the world . . . on turf. But dirt is an entirely different thing, and if he is to win this race he will have to take to it off of nothing more than a simple one-mile waltz around the track yesterday morning. He will wear blinkers to keep him focused and to try and keep some of the dirt out of his face.
DROSSELMEYER, RULER ON ICE, GAME ON DUDE, STAY THIRSTY, and TO HONOR AND SERVE could all be major players at decent odds. DROSSELMEYER finished second to Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup while rallying over a speed-favoring track and has been training beautifully. RULER ON ICE won the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) back in June and most recently finished second to To Honor and Serve in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) over another speed-favoring track. GAME ON DUDE won the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) in March set a blazing pace before hanging on to win the Goodwood Stakes (gr. I) last time out. STAY THIRSTY won the Jim Dandy (gr. II) and Travers (gr. I) but could only manage third in the JCGC. TO HONOR AND SERVE has won two straight, but his Pennsylvania Derby win was bias-aided and he has to break from the far outside post position.
ICE BOX, RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE, and HEADACHE will be longshots but all deserve mentions. ICE BOX hasn't run a good race since finishing second in the 2010 Kentucky Derby (gr. I), but is showing signs of returning to form and should outrun his odds. RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE finished second in the Travers behind Stay Thirsty, but could only manage third in the Pennsylvania Derby. However, with Calvin Borel in the saddle, expect to see this colt rallying up the rail in the stretch. Finally, HEADACHE won the Hawthorne Gold Cup (gr. II) going ten furlongs last time out, and should be coming from off the pace in the stretch if he is good enough.
Keelerman
1. Flat Out
2. Havre de Grace
3. So You Think
4. Drosselmeyer
J.R.
1. Game On Dude
2. So You Think
3. Ruler On Ice
4. Havre de Grace
Enjoy the Breeders' Cup races! First post time is 1:20 ET.
-Keelerman
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