Six Bits Handicap Thoughts

There is an intriguing $200,000 ungraded stakes race being run later this afternoon at Penn National. The third race on the card, it is the inaugural Six Bits Handicap and will feature the top turf sprinter Ben's Cat -- racing on dirt.

Here are the entries for this race:

PP/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Wink At the Girls 12-1
2 J J's Lucky Train (Scratched)
3 Philly Bound 10-1
4 Sloane Ranger 10-1
5 Ben's Cat 3-1
6 Immortal Eyes 7-2
7 Ravalo 9-2
8 Cabaret Cowboy 12-1

Ben's Cat has proven himself this year to be one of the best, if not the best, turf sprinters in the country. A five-year-old gelded son of Parker's Storm Cat trained by King Leatherbury, Ben's Cat has won fourteen of his nineteen starts, including six of his ten starts this year. Among his major victories are the Turf Monster Handicap (gr. III), the Pennsylvania Governor's Cup Handicap, and the Maryland Millions Turf Sprint Handicap. Only one of his four losses this year has come in a turf sprint, that being the $200,000 Parx Dash Handicap where he just missed by a head.

But today's Six Bits is not a turf sprint -- it is a dirt sprint. But not to worry. In his career, he has competed in seven main-track sprints, winning six and finishing second in the other. He is one of those rare horses that is equally adapt on both dirt and turf. In addition, he has been in fabulous form all year and should be fit and ready to add another win to his resume today.

However, a win today is not a given. There is another horse that looms a very serious challenger; quite possibly good enough to defeat Ben's Cat. He is Immortal Eyes, the second choice on the morning line. Trained by Damon Dilodovico, who is winning 28% percent of the time in 2011 and 42% so far at this Penn National meet, Immortal Eyes has been routinely earning Beyer speed figures larger than anything Ben's Cat has ever earned, including a 101 last time out when second by a half-length in the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash. Since being claimed for $50,000 after his first start of the year, Immortal Eyes has been transformed into a consistent dirt sprinter by Dilodovico; a sprinter that he won five of his seven starts for his new trainer and never finished worse than second. With terrific early speed, Immortal Eyes may be able to grab the lead early and take this field gate-to-wire.

Who can stop him? Ravalo, the 9-2 third choice, has run some big races in his 47-start career but does not have anywhere near the early speed necassary to beat Immortal Eyes to the lead -- he is a closer. Cabaret Cowboy might be able to match him for a few strides, but he's breaking from the far outside and is better when coming from slightly off of the pace. Wink At the Girls tends to come from off the pace as well. Sloane Ranger? He's got a post position advantage, but doesn't appear to be quick enough. The only horse I can really see challenging Immortal Eyes for the early lead is Philly Bound, who has shown formidable early speed at times but doesn't appear capable of carrying it this far in a race like this.

So although Ben's Cat is easily one of the best horses in the country, I'm going to take Immortal Eyes to pull off a very mild upset, with Sloane Ranger coming off for third.

1 Immortal Eyes
2 Ben's Cat
3 Sloane Ranger
4 Ravalo

-Keelerman