Following a two-week post-Breeders' Cup break, I am back now and ready to resume blogging. As we are already well into November, thoughts are beginning to shift toward the 2012 Triple Crown Trail. So far, we have seen promising juveniles like Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause, and Dullahan stamp themselves as prominent contenders for next year's classics, along with names like Alpha, Drill, Take Charge Indy, Excaper, and Motor City. Up-and-comers like Officer Prado, Sword Trick, Casual Trick, Unbridled's Note add further depth to the division, and there are at least a few dozen other colts I have not mentioned who have the potential to seriously influence the 2012 Triple Crown.
Sometime later this month I shall present a highly in-depth list of juveniles that have caught my eye, ranging from proven grade I stakes winners to unknowns with nothing but a maiden win -- or less -- on their credentials. I expect this list to contain somewhere between fifty and one hundred horses, all of whom I will be watching closely as they advance through the early months of next year. But for the moment, let us take a look at one of the richest stakes races for juveniles of the year, the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot (gr. III) at Delta Downs.
Here are the entries:
PP/Horse/Jockey
1 Longview Drive - Joel Rosario
2 Seven Lively Sins - Julien Leparoux
3 Tiz Moe - Jamie Theriot
4 Basmati - Corey Nakatani
5 My Adonis - Elvis Trujillo
6 Drill - Martin Garcia
7 Laurie's Rocket - J Hernandez
8 Sabercat - A Melancon
9 Dougs Buddy - A Stokes
10 Jake Mo - D Simington
Clearly, Drill has the best credentials, but he is certainly not a lock here. A son of Lawyer Ron trained by Bob Baffert, the colt won the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) in September, but has disappointed somewhat in both the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). It's hard to say why he lost those two races. In the Norfolk, he didn't get the best trip and did emerge with a slight fever, but he didn't really have an obvious excuse in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Could it be that he is better around one turn than two? Both the Norfolk and the BC Juvenile were two-turn races; the Del Mar Futurity was around one. Could it be that he doesn't like dirt? His two wins to date have come over Del Mar's synthetic main track. While he is certainly a top-class competitor, he has a lot of questions to answer here today and I believe others may be just as good.
One of those others is My Adonis, a son of Pleasantly Perfect bred to excel at long distances. Trained by Kelly Breen, the colt won the Jean Laffitte Stakes over this very course and distance, which is a big plus considering that Delta Downs is a six-furlong racetrack with a rather deep main track. He has won his last two starts by a combined ten lengths and looks like a good one.
Tiz Moe finished second to My Adonis in the Jean Laffite, but was over five lengths behind at the finish and it's hard to see him improving enough in one start to catch My Adonis. Nevertheless, you can never count out a son of Tiznow, and Bret Calhoun should have him primed for a big effort.
Basmati and Longview Drive ship in from California for trainers Doug O'Neill and Jerry Hollendorfer, respectively. Basmati broke his maiden last time out in impressive front-running fashion, but lost his first five races. On the other hand, two of those were grade I stakes events, including a fifth-place effort in the Del Mar Futurity where he was beaten only a length and a half. Longview Drive has been racing on the state fair circuit in northern California, building up a three-race win streak in the process and most recently winning the Charlie Palmer Futurity at Fresno. His Beyer speed figures make him at the very least a competitor here, but he will have to overcome breaking from gate one. I find in intriguing that Joel Rosario is here to ride him.
Seven Lively Sins, from the barn of Albert Stall, Jr., brings graded-stakes quality credentials into the race. First time out in a maiden special weight going 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga, he finished third behind subsequent stakes winner and promising juvenile Officer Prado. He then shipped to Keeneland, where he went gate-to-wire in a similar seven-furlong event. Most recently, he set a quick pace in Churchill's Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) before being passed late by Motor City. However, he was only beaten three-quarters of a length and may have superior early speed to the majority of his rivals here, which could enable him to secure a terrific front-running trip.
In fact, the only horse I can see beating Seven Lively Sins to the lead is Jake Mo, who will be breaking from the far outside. Upon breaking his maiden by 9 1/4 his second time out in June, he won the Prairie Gold Juvenile Stakes at Prairie Meadows before finishing a late-running third in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington Park. Entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, he broke poorly and lost all chance but did pass four horses en route to finishing fifth. Now, Prairie Meadows is a blazingly fast racetrack, but Jake Mo neverthless set fractions of :21 1/5 and :44 3/5 when winning the Prairie Gold Juvenile there in July, and at Remington he was only a length and a half off of blazing :21 2/5 and :43 3/5 fractions. So if he gets away to a quick start, he has the speed to go to the lead and try to hold them all off. Allan Milligan is the trainer.
Laurie's Rocket won an allowance optional claiming race going 6 1/2 furlongs last time out, but the Stewart Dallas-trainee has yet to earn a Beyer over 69 and his worst performance in five starts came when stretching out to two-turns for the first time in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I), where he ran last, beaten 38 lengths. He may be better sprinting.
Sabercat is one of the more intriguing contenders. After losing his first three starts while sprinting on dirt and routing on turf, he found himself in a one-mile maiden special weight at Monmouth Park where he promptly went wire-to-wire while defeating fellow Jackpot contender My Adonis. He then stretched out to a mile and seventy yards in the Garden City Stakes and blew away the field to win by six lengths. He is bred to excel as the distances get longer and I'm really pretty excited about this colt's potential.
This brings us to the longest shot in the field, Doug's Buddy. Trained by Joan Petrowski, the colt is undefeated in four starts. So why in the world is he 20-1? Well, all four of his wins have come at Northlands Park in Canada and he may be slightly better sprinting. Nevertheless, it's hard to believe that an undefeated colt will be such large odds. He will be racing on Lasix for the first time.
My selections for this race are:
1 My Adonis
2 Seven Lively Sins
3 Sabercat
4 Drill
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment