With only two graded stakes races remaining this year for two-year-olds (the CashCall Futurity and the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, both grade I), I thought it would be interesting to compile a list of all the juveniles to win graded stakes races this year. Here is the list, including the races won by each horse:
Animal Spirits [Bourbon Stakes (gr. III)]
Believe You Can [Tempted Stakes (gr. III)]
Creative Cause [Best Pal Stakes (gr. II), Norfolk Stakes (gr. I)]
Currency Swap [Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (gr. I)]
Disposablepleasure [Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II)]
Drill [Del Mar Futurity (gr. I)]
Dullahan [Dixiana Breeders Futurity (gr. I)]
Exfactor [Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III)]
Finale [Summer Stakes (gr. III)]
Flashy Lassie [Debutante Stakes (gr. III)]
Gemologist [Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)]
Georgie's Angel [Schuylerville Stakes (gr. III)]
Grace Hall [Spinaway Stakes (gr. I)]
Hansen [Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
Jack's in the Deck [Futurity Stakes (gr. II)]
Majestic City [Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes (gr. III)]
Mighty Caroline [Sorrento Stakes (gr. III)]
Millionreasonswhy [Matron Stakes (gr. II)]
More Than Love (Miesque Stakes (gr. III)]
Motor City [Iroquois Stakes (gr. III)]
My Miss Aurelia [Adirondack Stakes (gr. II), Frizette Stakes (gr. I), Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I)]
Northern Passion [Natalma Stakes (gr. III)]
Now I Know [Delta Downs Princess Stakes (gr. III)]
On Fire Baby [Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II), Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II)]
O'Prado Again [Remsen Stakes (gr. II)]
Overdriven [Sanford Stakes (gr. II)]
Prospective [Grey Stakes (gr. III)]
Pure Gossip [Miss Grillo Stakes (gr. III)]
Sabercat [Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III)]
She Digs Me [Sapling Stakes (gr. III)]
Shkspeare Shaliyah [Pilgrim Stakes (gr. III)]
So Brilliant [Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III)]
Somali Lemonade [JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes (gr. III)]
State of Play [With Anticipation (gr. II)]
Stephanie's Kitten [Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), Darley Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I)]
Stoney Fleece [Generous Stakes (gr. III)]
Union Rags [Saratoga Special (gr. II), Champagne Stakes (gr. I)]
Weemissfrankie [Del Mar Debutante Stakes (gr. I), Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I)
Wrote [Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I)]
Creative Cause, On Fire Baby, Stephanie's Kitten, Union Rags, and Weemissfrankie all won two graded stakes races this year, while My Miss Aurelia was the only one to take three.
However, winning multiple graded stakes races at two has not historically been a sign of success in the following year's Kentucky Derby. Here is a list of the last 28 Kentucky Derby winners, including the graded stakes races won by each at age two:
Animal Kingdom [None]
Super Saver [Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)]
Mine That Bird [Grey Stakes (gr. III)]
Big Brown [None]
Street Sense [Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)]
Barbaro [None]
Giacomo [None]
Smarty Jones [None]
Funny Cide [None]
War Emblem [None]
Monarchos [None]
Fusaichi Pegasus [None]
Charismatic [None]
Real Quiet [Hollywood Futurity (gr. I)]
Silver Charm [Del Mar Futurity (gr. II)]
Grindstone [None]
Thunder Gulch [Remsen Stakes (gr. II)]
Go For Gin [Remsen Stakes (gr. II)]
Sea Hero [Champagne Stakes (gr. I)]
Lil E. Tee [None]
Strike the Gold [None]
Unbridled [None]
Sunday Silence [None]
Winning Colors [None]
Alysheba [None]
Ferdinand [None]
Spend a Buck [None]
Swale [Young American Stakes (gr. I), Breeders' Futurity (gr. II), Futurity Stakes (gr. I), Saratoga Special (gr. II)]
It's hard to believe, but one has to go back to 1984 to find a Kentucky Derby winner who won more than one graded stakes race as a juvenile. In fact, 19 of the last 27 Derby winners failed to win a graded stakes race at age two -- that's over 67%. So by this standard, the two colts to have won more than one graded stakes race this year -- Creative Cause and Union Rags -- have a very small chance at winning the Derby. Admittedly, it's very unreasonable to toss a colt from Derby consideration just because he proved himself to be a top juvenile, but I think these statistics further prove the fact that the Derby is won by late-maturing three-year-olds that are peaking at the right time.
Who do I like for next year's Kentucky Derby? I will be discussing that very question on an upcoming post, but for the moment allow me to say this -- Calvin Borel, the king of the Kentucky Derby in recent years, has four live mounts for the 2012 Derby. They are Motor City, Exfactor, Timely Tally, and In The Beat. Remember those names. I have a feeling that one or more of them will be prominent names by the first Saturday in May.
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment