Friday, November 25, 2011

The Matriarch could settle an Eclipse Award

The Matriarch Stakes (gr. I), a one-mile $250,000 turf event for fillies and mares at Hollywood Park, has long been one of the most prestigious races of the division. This year, the race could help settle a very debatable category this year.

The Eclipse award for female turf horse is up for grabs, what with narrow division leader Stacelita having run very poorly in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I). This leaves the door open for Never Retreat to try and claim the award for her own. The six-year-old mare is having a terrific season this year, with victories in the First Lady Stakes (gr. I), Canadian Stakes (gr. II), Dance Smartly Stakes (gr. II), Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. II), and Honey Fox Stakes (gr. III) among her victories. A second grade I win in the Matriarch would all but sew up the award.

Eight rivals have lined up to face her, including the defending Matriarch winner Gypsy's Warning, promising three-year-olds Summer Soiree and Star Billing, as well as Unbridled Humor, Quiet Oasis, Madera Castana, and Up In Time. All Star Heart would likely have been one of the favorites, but she has scratched.

Never Retreat has had some major success at this one-mile distance, for her other grade I win came at that distance. She has also been very consistent this year. However, she is shipping across the country for this race, so it will be interesting to see how well she performs. Her trainer, Graham Motion, also trains Unbridled Humor and Summer Soiree.

Gypsy's Warning, as mentioned above, won last year's Matriarch, but has not cracked the exacta since then in four starts. That includes a sixth-place finish in the First Lady behind Never Retreat. Admittedly, she has been pretty close in three of those starts, but she just doesn't seem to be in the same form that she was in last year coming into this race.

Summer Soiree took the Del Mar Oaks (gr. I) and Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III) during the summer, but finished a dismal fifth, beaten 9 1/4 lengths. She will have to rebound today, and probably run the best race of her career, to pull off the victory.

The same goes for Star Billing, who won the Senorita Stakes (gr. III) early in the year and subsequently hit the board in the Honeymoon Handicap (gr. II), American Oaks (gr. I), and Del Mar Oaks (gr. I). A trip to Keeneland for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (gr. II) ended with a sixth-place finish, a half-length behind Summer Soiree, but she certainly is eligible to rebound and turn in a big performance.

The other competitors would all be a bit of a surprise, but are certainly not completely out of the question Particularily intriguing is Unbridled Humor, the Graham Motion-trainee who will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. Seventh in the Diana Handicap (gr. I) during the summer, she has turned in two strong efforts since then and could hit the board at a large price.

My selections are:

1 Never Retreat
2 Summer Soiree
3 Gypsy's Warning
4 Unbridled Humor

-Keelerman

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