Breeders' Cup Longshots

Here are a few of the longshots that I will have my eye on:

Filly & Mare Sprint: Champagne d'Oro. She's been running very poorly all year, but had throat surgery after the Molly Pitcher in September. Her next start came in the Lady's Secret Stakes (gr. I) going a mile and a sixteenth, a distance really too far for her. Nevertheless, she held the lead well into the homestretch before tiring late to be passed by Zazu, Ultra Blend, and Great Hot. Seeing that Champagne d'Oro is now returning to her favorite distance of seven furlongs, the possibility exists that she could take the lead early and hold off the closers.

Juvenile Fillies: Miss Netta. She finished a very distant third to My Miss Aurelia and Stopshoppingmaria in the Frizette Stakes (gr. I), but broke very poorly and ended up some seventeen lengths off the pace early on. Despite this, she closed well despite the winner's blazing final fractions to be beaten nine lengths. She had previously shown a great deal of speed when breaking her maiden, and I expect her to be on or close to the lead on Friday.

Classic: Drosselmeyer. Clearly, it's difficult to see him defeating the likes of Havre de Grace, Uncle Mo, Flat Out, and So You Think. But he did close strongly over a speed-favoring track at Belmont in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, earning a career-best Beyer speed figure, and has been training brilliantly at Churchill Downs. He seems to be simply reaching his peak at the right time, and we know he can handle the distance.

Dirt Mile: Jersey Town. I don't think the pace setup and race complexion of the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) helped this horse at all. He has previously shown good form at a mile, and in a race that appears to have a good deal of early speed he may be capable of picking up the pieces late.

-Keelerman