Prior to the running of last week's Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III), the two-year-old colt Empire Way was considered by many to be a top prospect for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. The half-brother to Royal Delta, winner of the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I) this year, had broken his maiden impressively going 6-1/2 furlongs at Hollywood Park; rallying from last to win under a hand ride.
However, upon finishing sixth of seven in the Prevue -- beating only a colt that broke down a half-mile into the race -- it seems as though many people have begun to forget about him and move on to other promising juveniles. I, however, was very impressed by his performance.
Empire Way, being a late-running sort, is always at the mercy of the early pace. And for a seven-furlong event, the pace of the Hollywood Prevue was simply pedestrian. Eventual winner So Brilliant was able to get away with fractions of :22.94 and :46.64. In the meantime, Empire Way bided his time in last place.
Thanks to the slow pace, So Brilliant was able to close his third quarter in :23.96 and his final quarter in an excellent :12.36. And so with an eighth of a mile remaining, Empire Way found himself at the back of the field with 5 1/4 lengths to make up. Using the old "one length equals one-fifth of a second" measuring stick, this would have required Empire Way to close his final eighth in :11.31 in order to win -- a virtually impossible task considering the nature of the race. And so when one considers that Empire Way did successfully close two of those lengths to be beaten only 3 1/4 lengths, that means that he closed his own final eighth in roughly :11.96 seconds, a remarkable effort indeed. None of the other runners came anywhere nearing closing that quickly.
Empire Way may turn out to be just another unsuccessful half-brother to a grade I stakes winner. But don't toss him from Derby consideration just because of his performance in the Prevue. It was much, much better than it looked.
-Keelerman
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