With only two graded stakes races remaining this year for two-year-olds (the CashCall Futurity and the Hollywood Starlet Stakes, both grade I), I thought it would be interesting to compile a list of all the juveniles to win graded stakes races this year. Here is the list, including the races won by each horse:
Animal Spirits [Bourbon Stakes (gr. III)]
Believe You Can [Tempted Stakes (gr. III)]
Creative Cause [Best Pal Stakes (gr. II), Norfolk Stakes (gr. I)]
Currency Swap [Three Chimneys Hopeful Stakes (gr. I)]
Disposablepleasure [Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II)]
Drill [Del Mar Futurity (gr. I)]
Dullahan [Dixiana Breeders Futurity (gr. I)]
Exfactor [Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III)]
Finale [Summer Stakes (gr. III)]
Flashy Lassie [Debutante Stakes (gr. III)]
Gemologist [Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)]
Georgie's Angel [Schuylerville Stakes (gr. III)]
Grace Hall [Spinaway Stakes (gr. I)]
Hansen [Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)
Jack's in the Deck [Futurity Stakes (gr. II)]
Majestic City [Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes (gr. III)]
Mighty Caroline [Sorrento Stakes (gr. III)]
Millionreasonswhy [Matron Stakes (gr. II)]
More Than Love (Miesque Stakes (gr. III)]
Motor City [Iroquois Stakes (gr. III)]
My Miss Aurelia [Adirondack Stakes (gr. II), Frizette Stakes (gr. I), Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I)]
Northern Passion [Natalma Stakes (gr. III)]
Now I Know [Delta Downs Princess Stakes (gr. III)]
On Fire Baby [Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II), Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II)]
O'Prado Again [Remsen Stakes (gr. II)]
Overdriven [Sanford Stakes (gr. II)]
Prospective [Grey Stakes (gr. III)]
Pure Gossip [Miss Grillo Stakes (gr. III)]
Sabercat [Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III)]
She Digs Me [Sapling Stakes (gr. III)]
Shkspeare Shaliyah [Pilgrim Stakes (gr. III)]
So Brilliant [Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III)]
Somali Lemonade [JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes (gr. III)]
State of Play [With Anticipation (gr. II)]
Stephanie's Kitten [Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), Darley Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I)]
Stoney Fleece [Generous Stakes (gr. III)]
Union Rags [Saratoga Special (gr. II), Champagne Stakes (gr. I)]
Weemissfrankie [Del Mar Debutante Stakes (gr. I), Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I)
Wrote [Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I)]
Creative Cause, On Fire Baby, Stephanie's Kitten, Union Rags, and Weemissfrankie all won two graded stakes races this year, while My Miss Aurelia was the only one to take three.
However, winning multiple graded stakes races at two has not historically been a sign of success in the following year's Kentucky Derby. Here is a list of the last 28 Kentucky Derby winners, including the graded stakes races won by each at age two:
Animal Kingdom [None]
Super Saver [Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II)]
Mine That Bird [Grey Stakes (gr. III)]
Big Brown [None]
Street Sense [Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)]
Barbaro [None]
Giacomo [None]
Smarty Jones [None]
Funny Cide [None]
War Emblem [None]
Monarchos [None]
Fusaichi Pegasus [None]
Charismatic [None]
Real Quiet [Hollywood Futurity (gr. I)]
Silver Charm [Del Mar Futurity (gr. II)]
Grindstone [None]
Thunder Gulch [Remsen Stakes (gr. II)]
Go For Gin [Remsen Stakes (gr. II)]
Sea Hero [Champagne Stakes (gr. I)]
Lil E. Tee [None]
Strike the Gold [None]
Unbridled [None]
Sunday Silence [None]
Winning Colors [None]
Alysheba [None]
Ferdinand [None]
Spend a Buck [None]
Swale [Young American Stakes (gr. I), Breeders' Futurity (gr. II), Futurity Stakes (gr. I), Saratoga Special (gr. II)]
It's hard to believe, but one has to go back to 1984 to find a Kentucky Derby winner who won more than one graded stakes race as a juvenile. In fact, 19 of the last 27 Derby winners failed to win a graded stakes race at age two -- that's over 67%. So by this standard, the two colts to have won more than one graded stakes race this year -- Creative Cause and Union Rags -- have a very small chance at winning the Derby. Admittedly, it's very unreasonable to toss a colt from Derby consideration just because he proved himself to be a top juvenile, but I think these statistics further prove the fact that the Derby is won by late-maturing three-year-olds that are peaking at the right time.
Who do I like for next year's Kentucky Derby? I will be discussing that very question on an upcoming post, but for the moment allow me to say this -- Calvin Borel, the king of the Kentucky Derby in recent years, has four live mounts for the 2012 Derby. They are Motor City, Exfactor, Timely Tally, and In The Beat. Remember those names. I have a feeling that one or more of them will be prominent names by the first Saturday in May.
-Keelerman
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
DON'T COUNT OUT EMPIRE WAY JUST YET
Prior to the running of last week's Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III), the two-year-old colt Empire Way was considered by many to be a top prospect for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. The half-brother to Royal Delta, winner of the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I) this year, had broken his maiden impressively going 6-1/2 furlongs at Hollywood Park; rallying from last to win under a hand ride.
However, upon finishing sixth of seven in the Prevue -- beating only a colt that broke down a half-mile into the race -- it seems as though many people have begun to forget about him and move on to other promising juveniles. I, however, was very impressed by his performance.
Empire Way, being a late-running sort, is always at the mercy of the early pace. And for a seven-furlong event, the pace of the Hollywood Prevue was simply pedestrian. Eventual winner So Brilliant was able to get away with fractions of :22.94 and :46.64. In the meantime, Empire Way bided his time in last place.
Thanks to the slow pace, So Brilliant was able to close his third quarter in :23.96 and his final quarter in an excellent :12.36. And so with an eighth of a mile remaining, Empire Way found himself at the back of the field with 5 1/4 lengths to make up. Using the old "one length equals one-fifth of a second" measuring stick, this would have required Empire Way to close his final eighth in :11.31 in order to win -- a virtually impossible task considering the nature of the race. And so when one considers that Empire Way did successfully close two of those lengths to be beaten only 3 1/4 lengths, that means that he closed his own final eighth in roughly :11.96 seconds, a remarkable effort indeed. None of the other runners came anywhere nearing closing that quickly.
Empire Way may turn out to be just another unsuccessful half-brother to a grade I stakes winner. But don't toss him from Derby consideration just because of his performance in the Prevue. It was much, much better than it looked.
-Keelerman
However, upon finishing sixth of seven in the Prevue -- beating only a colt that broke down a half-mile into the race -- it seems as though many people have begun to forget about him and move on to other promising juveniles. I, however, was very impressed by his performance.
Empire Way, being a late-running sort, is always at the mercy of the early pace. And for a seven-furlong event, the pace of the Hollywood Prevue was simply pedestrian. Eventual winner So Brilliant was able to get away with fractions of :22.94 and :46.64. In the meantime, Empire Way bided his time in last place.
Thanks to the slow pace, So Brilliant was able to close his third quarter in :23.96 and his final quarter in an excellent :12.36. And so with an eighth of a mile remaining, Empire Way found himself at the back of the field with 5 1/4 lengths to make up. Using the old "one length equals one-fifth of a second" measuring stick, this would have required Empire Way to close his final eighth in :11.31 in order to win -- a virtually impossible task considering the nature of the race. And so when one considers that Empire Way did successfully close two of those lengths to be beaten only 3 1/4 lengths, that means that he closed his own final eighth in roughly :11.96 seconds, a remarkable effort indeed. None of the other runners came anywhere nearing closing that quickly.
Empire Way may turn out to be just another unsuccessful half-brother to a grade I stakes winner. But don't toss him from Derby consideration just because of his performance in the Prevue. It was much, much better than it looked.
-Keelerman
Saturday, November 26, 2011
GEMOLOGIST WINS THE KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB STAKES!
Gemologist wore down favored Ever So Lucky deep in the Churchill Downs homestretch to win the $150,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II).
Under an excellent ride by Javier Castellano, the Todd Pletcher-trained, Winstar Farm-owned Gemologist settled into mid-pack as Ever So Lucky sprinted away from gate one to take the early lead. However, a maiden named Seve was intent on getting the lead from gate eleven and swept up to take it around the first turn. The opening fractions were fairly quick -- :23.98 and :47.49. Rounding the far turn, Ever So Lucky and Gemologist made simultaneous bids for the lead on the outside of Seve and entered the homestretch locked together in combat. But it was soon apparent that Gemologist was moving the stronger of the two, and soon put away his game rival to take the lead and win the mile and a sixteenth race in 1:44.46. Timely Tally put in a huge run from last under Calvin Borel to secure third, with Optimizer finishing fourth after looming dangerous in the stretch.
-Keelerman
Under an excellent ride by Javier Castellano, the Todd Pletcher-trained, Winstar Farm-owned Gemologist settled into mid-pack as Ever So Lucky sprinted away from gate one to take the early lead. However, a maiden named Seve was intent on getting the lead from gate eleven and swept up to take it around the first turn. The opening fractions were fairly quick -- :23.98 and :47.49. Rounding the far turn, Ever So Lucky and Gemologist made simultaneous bids for the lead on the outside of Seve and entered the homestretch locked together in combat. But it was soon apparent that Gemologist was moving the stronger of the two, and soon put away his game rival to take the lead and win the mile and a sixteenth race in 1:44.46. Timely Tally put in a huge run from last under Calvin Borel to secure third, with Optimizer finishing fourth after looming dangerous in the stretch.
-Keelerman
ON FIRE BABY DOMINATES THE GOLDEN ROD!
Narrow favorite On Fire Baby stamped herself as one of the favorites for next year's Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) with a dominating and authorative victory in the $150,000 Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs.
Ridden by J. Johnson for trainer Gary Hartlage, On Fire Baby broke cleanly from gate six and and bounded away to take the early lead. She was able to escape with moderate fractions, including a fifty-and-change half mile while narrowly leading a very compact field. But turning for home, Johnson asked her for run and she responded with a brilliant burst of speed that carried her to a four-length lead in the stretch. She continued to extend her lead from there, hitting the wire some seven or eight lengths in front. She completed the mile and a sixteenth event in 1:45.98. Goldrush Girl finished best of the rest in second, while Back Spin rallied belatedly from last to grab third. Second choice Golden History completed the superfecta.
-Keelerman
Ridden by J. Johnson for trainer Gary Hartlage, On Fire Baby broke cleanly from gate six and and bounded away to take the early lead. She was able to escape with moderate fractions, including a fifty-and-change half mile while narrowly leading a very compact field. But turning for home, Johnson asked her for run and she responded with a brilliant burst of speed that carried her to a four-length lead in the stretch. She continued to extend her lead from there, hitting the wire some seven or eight lengths in front. She completed the mile and a sixteenth event in 1:45.98. Goldrush Girl finished best of the rest in second, while Back Spin rallied belatedly from last to grab third. Second choice Golden History completed the superfecta.
-Keelerman
AWESOME FEATHER WINS THE GAZELLE!
Awesome Feather extended her undefeated streak to eight wins this afternoon at Aqueduct, taking over the lead in deep stretch and drawing away late to win the $250,000 Gazelle Stakes (gr. I) by five or six lengths.
Ridden by Jeffrey Sanchez, Awesome Feather settled into the third spot early on pacesetters Savvy Supreme and Love and Pride. The pace was fairly slow, with Savvy Surpreme setting fractions of :24.93 and :48.97. But turning into the homestretch, it was Draw It who held the lead. Awesome Feather was being asked for run and she was responding gamely, wearing down the leader before opening up a sizeable advantage nearing the finish. She completed the nine furlong event in 1:50.01, which was two to three seconds faster than the two-year-olds ran in the Remsen and Demoiselle Stakes earlier on the card.
Draw It finished second, followed by Love and Pride and Daring Reality.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Jeffrey Sanchez, Awesome Feather settled into the third spot early on pacesetters Savvy Supreme and Love and Pride. The pace was fairly slow, with Savvy Surpreme setting fractions of :24.93 and :48.97. But turning into the homestretch, it was Draw It who held the lead. Awesome Feather was being asked for run and she was responding gamely, wearing down the leader before opening up a sizeable advantage nearing the finish. She completed the nine furlong event in 1:50.01, which was two to three seconds faster than the two-year-olds ran in the Remsen and Demoiselle Stakes earlier on the card.
Draw It finished second, followed by Love and Pride and Daring Reality.
-Keelerman
TO HONOR AND SERVE WINS THE CIGAR MILE!
To Honor and Serve secured his first grade I win this afternoon at Aqueduct, passing Calibrachoa in the stretch and holding off a late run from Hymn Book to win the $250,000 Cigar Mile Handicap (gr. I) by two lengths.
Under a patient ride from Jose Lezcano, To Honor and Serve settled into second as Calibrachoa set the pace. Together, the two ran the opening quarter mile in :23.05 and the half in :45.61. Sangaree was on the far outside in third, followed by Haynesfield in fourth toward the rail and Caixa Eletronica in between them. It was a long way back to Hymn Book, who trailed the field by as many as ten lengths at one stage.
Turning for home Calibrachoa still held the lead, but To Honor and Serve was still under a hand ride and easily took over the lead in early stretch. Hymn Book was putting in a good run on the far outside, but To Honor and Serve was never really threatened en route to a decisive victory in a very quick 1:33.89. Calibrachoa held third, with Haynesfield coming home fourth.
The race added another grade I win to the resume of trainer Bill Mott, who is having a fantastic month following the victories of Drosselmeyer in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) and Royal Delta in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I).
Under a patient ride from Jose Lezcano, To Honor and Serve settled into second as Calibrachoa set the pace. Together, the two ran the opening quarter mile in :23.05 and the half in :45.61. Sangaree was on the far outside in third, followed by Haynesfield in fourth toward the rail and Caixa Eletronica in between them. It was a long way back to Hymn Book, who trailed the field by as many as ten lengths at one stage.
Turning for home Calibrachoa still held the lead, but To Honor and Serve was still under a hand ride and easily took over the lead in early stretch. Hymn Book was putting in a good run on the far outside, but To Honor and Serve was never really threatened en route to a decisive victory in a very quick 1:33.89. Calibrachoa held third, with Haynesfield coming home fourth.
The race added another grade I win to the resume of trainer Bill Mott, who is having a fantastic month following the victories of Drosselmeyer in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) and Royal Delta in the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I).
O'PRADO AGAIN WINS THE REMSEN!
O'Prado again wore down Souper Speedy in deep stretch to win the $200,000 Remsen Stakes (gr. II) at Aqueduct by three-quarters of a length.
Ridden by Kent Desormeaux, the son of El Prado sat reserved off of a slow early pace set by Souper Speedy and Our Entourage, who clicked off fractions of :24.38, :49.97, and 1:15.05. The two colts remained together on the lead all the way into the homestretch, battling side by side until Souper Speedy began to draw away. But O'Prado again was charging hard on the far outside and his late bid carried him to victory in 1:52.07. Souper Speedy held second by a head over El Padrino, with Done Talking another head back in fourth.
Paddy O'Prado is trained by Dale Romans and owned by Donegal Racing, the same connections that raced the top turf three-year-old of 2010 Paddy O'Prado.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Kent Desormeaux, the son of El Prado sat reserved off of a slow early pace set by Souper Speedy and Our Entourage, who clicked off fractions of :24.38, :49.97, and 1:15.05. The two colts remained together on the lead all the way into the homestretch, battling side by side until Souper Speedy began to draw away. But O'Prado again was charging hard on the far outside and his late bid carried him to victory in 1:52.07. Souper Speedy held second by a head over El Padrino, with Done Talking another head back in fourth.
Paddy O'Prado is trained by Dale Romans and owned by Donegal Racing, the same connections that raced the top turf three-year-old of 2010 Paddy O'Prado.
-Keelerman
DISPOSABLEPLEASURE WINS THE DEMOISELLE STAKES IN AMAZING FASHION!
Disposable Pleasure overcame a terrible start to win the $200,000 Demoiselle Stakes (gr. II) by a desperate nose for trainer Todd Pletcher, stamping herself as one of the early favorites for the 2012 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I).
Ridden by Ramon Dominguez, the grey daughter of Giacamo was sent off as the favorite at 6-5 in a field of ten. However, at the start she stumbled very badly and found herself dead last in the early stages of the race, some twelve or fifteen lengths off of a :23.85 and :48.31 pace set by Wee Party. She remained far behind until the field began to round the far turn, when she made a bold run to reach contention on the far outside. Turning for home, she was right behind the leaders but without an opening. But suddenly, a hole developed in between horses and Dominguez guided her through to take the lead. However, she wasn't alone for long. 5-1 shot Wildcat's Smile was charging gamely on the far outside, and the two fillies hit the wire together in a photo finish. Disposable Pleasure was the winner by a nose.
An objection was filed by the rider of third-place finisher Bourbonstreetgirl for alleged interference on the far turn, but it was not allowed. The final time was 1:53.10. Wee Party held on for fourth.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Ramon Dominguez, the grey daughter of Giacamo was sent off as the favorite at 6-5 in a field of ten. However, at the start she stumbled very badly and found herself dead last in the early stages of the race, some twelve or fifteen lengths off of a :23.85 and :48.31 pace set by Wee Party. She remained far behind until the field began to round the far turn, when she made a bold run to reach contention on the far outside. Turning for home, she was right behind the leaders but without an opening. But suddenly, a hole developed in between horses and Dominguez guided her through to take the lead. However, she wasn't alone for long. 5-1 shot Wildcat's Smile was charging gamely on the far outside, and the two fillies hit the wire together in a photo finish. Disposable Pleasure was the winner by a nose.
An objection was filed by the rider of third-place finisher Bourbonstreetgirl for alleged interference on the far turn, but it was not allowed. The final time was 1:53.10. Wee Party held on for fourth.
-Keelerman
In The Beat -- A Definite Triple Crown Contender
The Stars of Tomorrow programs at Churchill Downs have always been two of my favorite racing days of the year. An entire card dedicated to two-year-olds with their eyes on the following year's Kentucky Derby -- who wouldn't like that?
It just so happens that today is one of the Stars of Tomorrow days, with twelve races carded for up-and-coming juveniles. The schedule includes the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) and Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II), two tried-and-true preps for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks, respectively.
The first race of the card has just been run; a six furlong maiden special weight for two-year-olds of either gender. Twelve went to post, with Radiant Talent the favorite at 1-2. Dismissed in the betting at 25-1 was a colt named In The Beat, making his third start for owner Jim Tafel LLC, trainer Carl Nafzger, and jockey Calvin Borel -- the exact same connections of the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. Coincidentally, In The Beat is a son of Street Sense.
Shortly after the start of the race, Calvin Borel guided In The Beat to the rail, a technique that has earned Borel three victories in the Kentucky Derby. In The Beat was at the very back of the field early on as Radiant Talent helped set a quick pace of :21.84 and :45.30. Turning into the homestretch, the favorite kicked clear and looked to be on his way to victory.
But no one noticed In The Beat rallying furiously along the rail until deep stretch. Under a masterful ride, Borel had kept his mount glued to the inside and had picked off horses one by one to reach contention inside the eighth pole. Radiant Talent was still on the lead, but was beginning to tire after his early exertions. There was a small opening on his inside, just wide enough for a horse to squeeze through. Borel saw it and guided In The Beat to it for the final rally. Courageously, In The Beat shot through along the inside to secure a narrow victory in truly impressive fashion, completing the six furlongs in a quick 1:09.85.
What is even more amazing is that In The Beat is not bred to be a sprinter. To the contrary, he is by Derby-winning Street Sense out Rythmical Beat, a daughter of Derby-winning Fusaichi Pegasus. Time will tell how this colt turns out, but he certainly appears to be one of the hottest Derby prospects around. I'm looking forward to this colt's future.
-Keelerman
It just so happens that today is one of the Stars of Tomorrow days, with twelve races carded for up-and-coming juveniles. The schedule includes the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) and Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II), two tried-and-true preps for the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks, respectively.
The first race of the card has just been run; a six furlong maiden special weight for two-year-olds of either gender. Twelve went to post, with Radiant Talent the favorite at 1-2. Dismissed in the betting at 25-1 was a colt named In The Beat, making his third start for owner Jim Tafel LLC, trainer Carl Nafzger, and jockey Calvin Borel -- the exact same connections of the 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. Coincidentally, In The Beat is a son of Street Sense.
Shortly after the start of the race, Calvin Borel guided In The Beat to the rail, a technique that has earned Borel three victories in the Kentucky Derby. In The Beat was at the very back of the field early on as Radiant Talent helped set a quick pace of :21.84 and :45.30. Turning into the homestretch, the favorite kicked clear and looked to be on his way to victory.
But no one noticed In The Beat rallying furiously along the rail until deep stretch. Under a masterful ride, Borel had kept his mount glued to the inside and had picked off horses one by one to reach contention inside the eighth pole. Radiant Talent was still on the lead, but was beginning to tire after his early exertions. There was a small opening on his inside, just wide enough for a horse to squeeze through. Borel saw it and guided In The Beat to it for the final rally. Courageously, In The Beat shot through along the inside to secure a narrow victory in truly impressive fashion, completing the six furlongs in a quick 1:09.85.
What is even more amazing is that In The Beat is not bred to be a sprinter. To the contrary, he is by Derby-winning Street Sense out Rythmical Beat, a daughter of Derby-winning Fusaichi Pegasus. Time will tell how this colt turns out, but he certainly appears to be one of the hottest Derby prospects around. I'm looking forward to this colt's future.
-Keelerman
Friday, November 25, 2011
The Matriarch could settle an Eclipse Award
The Matriarch Stakes (gr. I), a one-mile $250,000 turf event for fillies and mares at Hollywood Park, has long been one of the most prestigious races of the division. This year, the race could help settle a very debatable category this year.
The Eclipse award for female turf horse is up for grabs, what with narrow division leader Stacelita having run very poorly in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I). This leaves the door open for Never Retreat to try and claim the award for her own. The six-year-old mare is having a terrific season this year, with victories in the First Lady Stakes (gr. I), Canadian Stakes (gr. II), Dance Smartly Stakes (gr. II), Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. II), and Honey Fox Stakes (gr. III) among her victories. A second grade I win in the Matriarch would all but sew up the award.
Eight rivals have lined up to face her, including the defending Matriarch winner Gypsy's Warning, promising three-year-olds Summer Soiree and Star Billing, as well as Unbridled Humor, Quiet Oasis, Madera Castana, and Up In Time. All Star Heart would likely have been one of the favorites, but she has scratched.
Never Retreat has had some major success at this one-mile distance, for her other grade I win came at that distance. She has also been very consistent this year. However, she is shipping across the country for this race, so it will be interesting to see how well she performs. Her trainer, Graham Motion, also trains Unbridled Humor and Summer Soiree.
Gypsy's Warning, as mentioned above, won last year's Matriarch, but has not cracked the exacta since then in four starts. That includes a sixth-place finish in the First Lady behind Never Retreat. Admittedly, she has been pretty close in three of those starts, but she just doesn't seem to be in the same form that she was in last year coming into this race.
Summer Soiree took the Del Mar Oaks (gr. I) and Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III) during the summer, but finished a dismal fifth, beaten 9 1/4 lengths. She will have to rebound today, and probably run the best race of her career, to pull off the victory.
The same goes for Star Billing, who won the Senorita Stakes (gr. III) early in the year and subsequently hit the board in the Honeymoon Handicap (gr. II), American Oaks (gr. I), and Del Mar Oaks (gr. I). A trip to Keeneland for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (gr. II) ended with a sixth-place finish, a half-length behind Summer Soiree, but she certainly is eligible to rebound and turn in a big performance.
The other competitors would all be a bit of a surprise, but are certainly not completely out of the question Particularily intriguing is Unbridled Humor, the Graham Motion-trainee who will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. Seventh in the Diana Handicap (gr. I) during the summer, she has turned in two strong efforts since then and could hit the board at a large price.
My selections are:
1 Never Retreat
2 Summer Soiree
3 Gypsy's Warning
4 Unbridled Humor
-Keelerman
The Eclipse award for female turf horse is up for grabs, what with narrow division leader Stacelita having run very poorly in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I). This leaves the door open for Never Retreat to try and claim the award for her own. The six-year-old mare is having a terrific season this year, with victories in the First Lady Stakes (gr. I), Canadian Stakes (gr. II), Dance Smartly Stakes (gr. II), Jenny Wiley Stakes (gr. II), and Honey Fox Stakes (gr. III) among her victories. A second grade I win in the Matriarch would all but sew up the award.
Eight rivals have lined up to face her, including the defending Matriarch winner Gypsy's Warning, promising three-year-olds Summer Soiree and Star Billing, as well as Unbridled Humor, Quiet Oasis, Madera Castana, and Up In Time. All Star Heart would likely have been one of the favorites, but she has scratched.
Never Retreat has had some major success at this one-mile distance, for her other grade I win came at that distance. She has also been very consistent this year. However, she is shipping across the country for this race, so it will be interesting to see how well she performs. Her trainer, Graham Motion, also trains Unbridled Humor and Summer Soiree.
Gypsy's Warning, as mentioned above, won last year's Matriarch, but has not cracked the exacta since then in four starts. That includes a sixth-place finish in the First Lady behind Never Retreat. Admittedly, she has been pretty close in three of those starts, but she just doesn't seem to be in the same form that she was in last year coming into this race.
Summer Soiree took the Del Mar Oaks (gr. I) and Boiling Springs Stakes (gr. III) during the summer, but finished a dismal fifth, beaten 9 1/4 lengths. She will have to rebound today, and probably run the best race of her career, to pull off the victory.
The same goes for Star Billing, who won the Senorita Stakes (gr. III) early in the year and subsequently hit the board in the Honeymoon Handicap (gr. II), American Oaks (gr. I), and Del Mar Oaks (gr. I). A trip to Keeneland for the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes (gr. II) ended with a sixth-place finish, a half-length behind Summer Soiree, but she certainly is eligible to rebound and turn in a big performance.
The other competitors would all be a bit of a surprise, but are certainly not completely out of the question Particularily intriguing is Unbridled Humor, the Graham Motion-trainee who will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. Seventh in the Diana Handicap (gr. I) during the summer, she has turned in two strong efforts since then and could hit the board at a large price.
My selections are:
1 Never Retreat
2 Summer Soiree
3 Gypsy's Warning
4 Unbridled Humor
-Keelerman
WISE DAN WINS THE CLARK HANDICAP!
In last year's Clark Handicap (gr. I), trainer Charles Lopresti finished first with Successful Dan, only to watch as his horse was disqualified for interference in the stretch. This year, Wise Dan was able to give his trainer a victory for keeps when he blew past Mission Impazible in the stretch to win the $500,000 event by three widening lengths.
Ridden by John Velazquez, the four-year-old gelding settled just off the pace in third as Will's Wildcat went straight to the lead from gate ten. Mission Impazible was racing on his outside in second, followed by Stately Victory toward the inside in fourth with Prayer For Relief fifth on the far outside. A break of two lengths or so separated the favorites Flat Out and Ruler On Ice from the front-running group. General Quarters, Mister Marti Gras, Demarcation, Alma d'Oro, Pleasant Prince, and Headache trailed the field in that order.
Will's Wildcat continued to set the pace around the far turn, but was passed by Mission Impazible approaching the stretch. For a brief moment Mission Impazible appeared to be en route to victory, but Wise Dan was gearing up with a powerful run on the outside that took him into the lead and on to victory passing the eighth pole. The final time was 1:48.95. Mister Marti Gras got up for fourth by a long neck over Ruler On Ice, with Headache another neck behind him. Alma d'Oro, Will's Wildcat, Prayer For Relief, Stately Victor, Demarcation, Pleasant Prince, and General Quarters completed the order of finish.
Wise Dan has most definitely stamped himself as one of the leading older horses heading into 2012. Long considered to be a sprinter/miler type, he has proven himself just as good if not better at nine furlongs than shorter distances and now has graded stakes victories on durt, turf, and synthetic tracks.
-Keelerman
Ridden by John Velazquez, the four-year-old gelding settled just off the pace in third as Will's Wildcat went straight to the lead from gate ten. Mission Impazible was racing on his outside in second, followed by Stately Victory toward the inside in fourth with Prayer For Relief fifth on the far outside. A break of two lengths or so separated the favorites Flat Out and Ruler On Ice from the front-running group. General Quarters, Mister Marti Gras, Demarcation, Alma d'Oro, Pleasant Prince, and Headache trailed the field in that order.
Will's Wildcat continued to set the pace around the far turn, but was passed by Mission Impazible approaching the stretch. For a brief moment Mission Impazible appeared to be en route to victory, but Wise Dan was gearing up with a powerful run on the outside that took him into the lead and on to victory passing the eighth pole. The final time was 1:48.95. Mister Marti Gras got up for fourth by a long neck over Ruler On Ice, with Headache another neck behind him. Alma d'Oro, Will's Wildcat, Prayer For Relief, Stately Victor, Demarcation, Pleasant Prince, and General Quarters completed the order of finish.
Wise Dan has most definitely stamped himself as one of the leading older horses heading into 2012. Long considered to be a sprinter/miler type, he has proven himself just as good if not better at nine furlongs than shorter distances and now has graded stakes victories on durt, turf, and synthetic tracks.
-Keelerman
Clark Handicap Thoughts & Analysis
In a normal year, the $500,000 Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs -- despite being a grade I race -- is merely one of those late-season goals for horses that either performed poorly in the Breeders' Cup or didn't run in it for some reason or another. Occasionally, it attracts late-maturing three-year-olds looking to get an early start on their following year's campaign -- Blame and Misremembered ran 1-2 in the 2010 Clark and subsquently went on to win major grade I races the next year.
However, this year's Clark has a different feel entirely. This is not just any old grade I race. This is a race that could settle some Eclipse awards.
Here are the entries:
PP/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Ruler On Ice 4-1
2 Alma d'Oro 20-1
3 Demarcation 15-1
4 Stately Victor 30-1
5 Mission Impazible 12-1
6 Flat Out 5-2
7 Pleasant Prince 20-1
8 Headache 12-1
9 Mister Marti Gras 12-1
10 Will's Wildcat 30-1
11 Wise Dan 4-1
12 Prayer For Relief 5-1
13 General Quarters 20-1
Two horses, Flat Out and Ruler On Ice, stand to take home an Eclipse award if they can win this race. Flat Out already has credentials than earn him consideration for the Champion Older Male award, and a victory here would further bolster his chances. Ruler On Ice has only one stakes win to his credit this year, but it was a big one -- the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). He has also finished second in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) and third in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I), Haskell Invitational (gr. I), and Sunland Derby (gr. III). A win in the Clark would give him two grade I wins, the same total as narrow division leader Caleb's Posse. And I believe that the Belmont/Clark double trumps Caleb's Posse's admirable but slightly less prestigious King's Bishop/Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile duo.
But will Flat Out or Ruler On Ice take the win today? That's debatable. Both have things to prove. Flat Out is been extremely consistent this year, but has made three starts at Churchill Downs and failed to hit the board in any of them. Nine furlongs may be a tad too short for Ruler On Ice, and in addition, he must overcome breaking from the rail. So who else could beat them?
Well, for one there is Wise Dan. An extremely versatile four-year-old gelding, he is coming off of a dominating victory in the Fayette Stakes (gr. II) at this distance. However, his biggest success has come over turf and synthetics, so he'll have to prove himself over dirt if he is to win today.
Then there is Prayer For Relief, a three-year-old colt trained by Bob Baffert who has wins in the Iowa Super Derby (gr. II), West Virginia Derby (gr. II), and Iowa Derby (gr. III). Most recently, he finished a close but troubled third in the $400,000 Oklahoma Derby behind Redeemed, who returned last week to take the Discovery Handicap (gr. III) in sharp fashion. However, the front-running colt may have trouble getting the lead from gate eleven.
Mission Impazible nearly took the grade I Stephen Foster Handicap here at Churchill during the spring meet, missing by a neck to Pool Play is a strong performance. However, he hasn't really returned to that form in three subsquent starts and ran ninth beaten eight lengths in the Fayette Stakes last time out. Nevertheless, that was over Polytrack, so it is possible that he is ready to return to form at a price.
Pleasant Prince and Headache return from running in the Breeders' Cup, with Pleasant Prince finishing fourth in the Marathon and Headache running last in the Classic. Both are eligible to improve off of those efforts, with Pleasant Prince having considerable back class at shorter distances and Headache not getting a very good trip in the Classic. To me, Headache looks to have the best chance at upsetting the two favorites.
Mister Marti Gras and Alma d'Oro, the 1-2 finishers in the Ack Ack Handicap (gr. III) at Churchill during the Breeders' Cup week, take steps up in class but are certainly not completely out of consideration. Demarcation was fifth in the Ack Ack, but the late-closer was beaten only three lengths while having his stretch kick compromised by the bizarrely slow pace. He was fourth in last year's Clark -- although he was disqualified to last for interference -- and on his best day, he is capable of a performance good enough to put him in contention here.
Stately Victor, General Quarters, and Will's Wildcat would all trigger large payoffs if they were to win, with the first two being best on turf and the latter being more of a sprinter/miler type. But in a wide-open race like this one, it's not safe to count anyone out.
My selections are:
1 Ruler On Ice
2 Flat Out
3 Headache
4 Mission Impazible
-Keelerman
However, this year's Clark has a different feel entirely. This is not just any old grade I race. This is a race that could settle some Eclipse awards.
Here are the entries:
PP/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Ruler On Ice 4-1
2 Alma d'Oro 20-1
3 Demarcation 15-1
4 Stately Victor 30-1
5 Mission Impazible 12-1
6 Flat Out 5-2
7 Pleasant Prince 20-1
8 Headache 12-1
9 Mister Marti Gras 12-1
10 Will's Wildcat 30-1
11 Wise Dan 4-1
12 Prayer For Relief 5-1
13 General Quarters 20-1
Two horses, Flat Out and Ruler On Ice, stand to take home an Eclipse award if they can win this race. Flat Out already has credentials than earn him consideration for the Champion Older Male award, and a victory here would further bolster his chances. Ruler On Ice has only one stakes win to his credit this year, but it was a big one -- the Belmont Stakes (gr. I). He has also finished second in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) and third in the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I), Haskell Invitational (gr. I), and Sunland Derby (gr. III). A win in the Clark would give him two grade I wins, the same total as narrow division leader Caleb's Posse. And I believe that the Belmont/Clark double trumps Caleb's Posse's admirable but slightly less prestigious King's Bishop/Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile duo.
But will Flat Out or Ruler On Ice take the win today? That's debatable. Both have things to prove. Flat Out is been extremely consistent this year, but has made three starts at Churchill Downs and failed to hit the board in any of them. Nine furlongs may be a tad too short for Ruler On Ice, and in addition, he must overcome breaking from the rail. So who else could beat them?
Well, for one there is Wise Dan. An extremely versatile four-year-old gelding, he is coming off of a dominating victory in the Fayette Stakes (gr. II) at this distance. However, his biggest success has come over turf and synthetics, so he'll have to prove himself over dirt if he is to win today.
Then there is Prayer For Relief, a three-year-old colt trained by Bob Baffert who has wins in the Iowa Super Derby (gr. II), West Virginia Derby (gr. II), and Iowa Derby (gr. III). Most recently, he finished a close but troubled third in the $400,000 Oklahoma Derby behind Redeemed, who returned last week to take the Discovery Handicap (gr. III) in sharp fashion. However, the front-running colt may have trouble getting the lead from gate eleven.
Mission Impazible nearly took the grade I Stephen Foster Handicap here at Churchill during the spring meet, missing by a neck to Pool Play is a strong performance. However, he hasn't really returned to that form in three subsquent starts and ran ninth beaten eight lengths in the Fayette Stakes last time out. Nevertheless, that was over Polytrack, so it is possible that he is ready to return to form at a price.
Pleasant Prince and Headache return from running in the Breeders' Cup, with Pleasant Prince finishing fourth in the Marathon and Headache running last in the Classic. Both are eligible to improve off of those efforts, with Pleasant Prince having considerable back class at shorter distances and Headache not getting a very good trip in the Classic. To me, Headache looks to have the best chance at upsetting the two favorites.
Mister Marti Gras and Alma d'Oro, the 1-2 finishers in the Ack Ack Handicap (gr. III) at Churchill during the Breeders' Cup week, take steps up in class but are certainly not completely out of consideration. Demarcation was fifth in the Ack Ack, but the late-closer was beaten only three lengths while having his stretch kick compromised by the bizarrely slow pace. He was fourth in last year's Clark -- although he was disqualified to last for interference -- and on his best day, he is capable of a performance good enough to put him in contention here.
Stately Victor, General Quarters, and Will's Wildcat would all trigger large payoffs if they were to win, with the first two being best on turf and the latter being more of a sprinter/miler type. But in a wide-open race like this one, it's not safe to count anyone out.
My selections are:
1 Ruler On Ice
2 Flat Out
3 Headache
4 Mission Impazible
-Keelerman
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Six Bits Handicap Thoughts
There is an intriguing $200,000 ungraded stakes race being run later this afternoon at Penn National. The third race on the card, it is the inaugural Six Bits Handicap and will feature the top turf sprinter Ben's Cat -- racing on dirt.
Here are the entries for this race:
PP/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Wink At the Girls 12-1
2 J J's Lucky Train (Scratched)
3 Philly Bound 10-1
4 Sloane Ranger 10-1
5 Ben's Cat 3-1
6 Immortal Eyes 7-2
7 Ravalo 9-2
8 Cabaret Cowboy 12-1
Ben's Cat has proven himself this year to be one of the best, if not the best, turf sprinters in the country. A five-year-old gelded son of Parker's Storm Cat trained by King Leatherbury, Ben's Cat has won fourteen of his nineteen starts, including six of his ten starts this year. Among his major victories are the Turf Monster Handicap (gr. III), the Pennsylvania Governor's Cup Handicap, and the Maryland Millions Turf Sprint Handicap. Only one of his four losses this year has come in a turf sprint, that being the $200,000 Parx Dash Handicap where he just missed by a head.
But today's Six Bits is not a turf sprint -- it is a dirt sprint. But not to worry. In his career, he has competed in seven main-track sprints, winning six and finishing second in the other. He is one of those rare horses that is equally adapt on both dirt and turf. In addition, he has been in fabulous form all year and should be fit and ready to add another win to his resume today.
However, a win today is not a given. There is another horse that looms a very serious challenger; quite possibly good enough to defeat Ben's Cat. He is Immortal Eyes, the second choice on the morning line. Trained by Damon Dilodovico, who is winning 28% percent of the time in 2011 and 42% so far at this Penn National meet, Immortal Eyes has been routinely earning Beyer speed figures larger than anything Ben's Cat has ever earned, including a 101 last time out when second by a half-length in the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash. Since being claimed for $50,000 after his first start of the year, Immortal Eyes has been transformed into a consistent dirt sprinter by Dilodovico; a sprinter that he won five of his seven starts for his new trainer and never finished worse than second. With terrific early speed, Immortal Eyes may be able to grab the lead early and take this field gate-to-wire.
Who can stop him? Ravalo, the 9-2 third choice, has run some big races in his 47-start career but does not have anywhere near the early speed necassary to beat Immortal Eyes to the lead -- he is a closer. Cabaret Cowboy might be able to match him for a few strides, but he's breaking from the far outside and is better when coming from slightly off of the pace. Wink At the Girls tends to come from off the pace as well. Sloane Ranger? He's got a post position advantage, but doesn't appear to be quick enough. The only horse I can really see challenging Immortal Eyes for the early lead is Philly Bound, who has shown formidable early speed at times but doesn't appear capable of carrying it this far in a race like this.
So although Ben's Cat is easily one of the best horses in the country, I'm going to take Immortal Eyes to pull off a very mild upset, with Sloane Ranger coming off for third.
1 Immortal Eyes
2 Ben's Cat
3 Sloane Ranger
4 Ravalo
-Keelerman
Here are the entries for this race:
PP/Horse/Morning Line Odds
1 Wink At the Girls 12-1
2 J J's Lucky Train (Scratched)
3 Philly Bound 10-1
4 Sloane Ranger 10-1
5 Ben's Cat 3-1
6 Immortal Eyes 7-2
7 Ravalo 9-2
8 Cabaret Cowboy 12-1
Ben's Cat has proven himself this year to be one of the best, if not the best, turf sprinters in the country. A five-year-old gelded son of Parker's Storm Cat trained by King Leatherbury, Ben's Cat has won fourteen of his nineteen starts, including six of his ten starts this year. Among his major victories are the Turf Monster Handicap (gr. III), the Pennsylvania Governor's Cup Handicap, and the Maryland Millions Turf Sprint Handicap. Only one of his four losses this year has come in a turf sprint, that being the $200,000 Parx Dash Handicap where he just missed by a head.
But today's Six Bits is not a turf sprint -- it is a dirt sprint. But not to worry. In his career, he has competed in seven main-track sprints, winning six and finishing second in the other. He is one of those rare horses that is equally adapt on both dirt and turf. In addition, he has been in fabulous form all year and should be fit and ready to add another win to his resume today.
However, a win today is not a given. There is another horse that looms a very serious challenger; quite possibly good enough to defeat Ben's Cat. He is Immortal Eyes, the second choice on the morning line. Trained by Damon Dilodovico, who is winning 28% percent of the time in 2011 and 42% so far at this Penn National meet, Immortal Eyes has been routinely earning Beyer speed figures larger than anything Ben's Cat has ever earned, including a 101 last time out when second by a half-length in the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash. Since being claimed for $50,000 after his first start of the year, Immortal Eyes has been transformed into a consistent dirt sprinter by Dilodovico; a sprinter that he won five of his seven starts for his new trainer and never finished worse than second. With terrific early speed, Immortal Eyes may be able to grab the lead early and take this field gate-to-wire.
Who can stop him? Ravalo, the 9-2 third choice, has run some big races in his 47-start career but does not have anywhere near the early speed necassary to beat Immortal Eyes to the lead -- he is a closer. Cabaret Cowboy might be able to match him for a few strides, but he's breaking from the far outside and is better when coming from slightly off of the pace. Wink At the Girls tends to come from off the pace as well. Sloane Ranger? He's got a post position advantage, but doesn't appear to be quick enough. The only horse I can really see challenging Immortal Eyes for the early lead is Philly Bound, who has shown formidable early speed at times but doesn't appear capable of carrying it this far in a race like this.
So although Ben's Cat is easily one of the best horses in the country, I'm going to take Immortal Eyes to pull off a very mild upset, with Sloane Ranger coming off for third.
1 Immortal Eyes
2 Ben's Cat
3 Sloane Ranger
4 Ravalo
-Keelerman
Monday, November 21, 2011
RAPID REDUX GOES FOR WIN #20
Later tonight, the remarkable five-year-old gelding Rapid Redux will attempt to win his 20th straight race. A son of Pleasantly Perfect, the tough-as-nails competitor began his winning streak late last year with two consecutive victories, and has subsequently proceeded to reel off seventeen straight wins this year already. The majority of his victories have come in starter allowance company at tracks such as Laurel Park, Parx Racing, Charles Town, Penn National, Mountaineer, and others.
Tonight's race will be a one-mile $5,000 starter allowance race at Mountaineer. Following a number of scratched, he will only have to face four rivals -- with morning line odds of 20-1, 30-1, 30-1, and 30-1.
It appears as though little will stand in Rapid Redux's way as he bids to win number twenty. Of course, this is more than just an impressive streak of wins. The modern-day North American record for consecutive victories is held jointly by three horses: the undefeated mare Pepper's Pride, the remarkable four-time Eclipse champion Zenyatta, and Rapid Redux. A win for Rapid Redux would make him President of an elite club of which only he would be a member. And it could potentially be many, many years before another joins him.
I have been following Rapid Redux's quest for the record since early this year, when he had only six straight victories under his belt. I wrote about him frequently early this year on my other blog, Veterans of the Turf. In celebration of his remarkable achievements, here are the links to some of the posts that I wrote about him during the spring of this year:
http://veteransoftheturf.blogspot.com/2011/06/rapid-redux-goes-for-13.html
http://veteransoftheturf.blogspot.com/2011/05/of-awesome-gem-rapid-redux-and-horse.html
http://veteransoftheturf.blogspot.com/2011/05/of-rapid-redux-garden-dancer-workout.html
http://veteransoftheturf.blogspot.com/2011/04/rapid-redux-entered-to-race-tonight.html
http://veteransoftheturf.blogspot.com/2011/04/exciting-potential-saga-of-rapid-redux.html
In addition, here is the link to a terrific piece about Rapid Redux from DRF.com, written by Joe DiVevo:
http://www.drf.com/news/mountaineer-rapid-redux-will-have-overcome-post-pace-set-record
With luck, Rapid Redux will enter the history books forever. And of course, one must remember that twenty straight wins might only be the beginning. Who knows how many consecutive victories he may end up claiming?
-Keelerman
Tonight's race will be a one-mile $5,000 starter allowance race at Mountaineer. Following a number of scratched, he will only have to face four rivals -- with morning line odds of 20-1, 30-1, 30-1, and 30-1.
It appears as though little will stand in Rapid Redux's way as he bids to win number twenty. Of course, this is more than just an impressive streak of wins. The modern-day North American record for consecutive victories is held jointly by three horses: the undefeated mare Pepper's Pride, the remarkable four-time Eclipse champion Zenyatta, and Rapid Redux. A win for Rapid Redux would make him President of an elite club of which only he would be a member. And it could potentially be many, many years before another joins him.
I have been following Rapid Redux's quest for the record since early this year, when he had only six straight victories under his belt. I wrote about him frequently early this year on my other blog, Veterans of the Turf. In celebration of his remarkable achievements, here are the links to some of the posts that I wrote about him during the spring of this year:
http://veteransoftheturf.blogspot.com/2011/06/rapid-redux-goes-for-13.html
http://veteransoftheturf.blogspot.com/2011/05/of-awesome-gem-rapid-redux-and-horse.html
http://veteransoftheturf.blogspot.com/2011/05/of-rapid-redux-garden-dancer-workout.html
http://veteransoftheturf.blogspot.com/2011/04/rapid-redux-entered-to-race-tonight.html
http://veteransoftheturf.blogspot.com/2011/04/exciting-potential-saga-of-rapid-redux.html
In addition, here is the link to a terrific piece about Rapid Redux from DRF.com, written by Joe DiVevo:
http://www.drf.com/news/mountaineer-rapid-redux-will-have-overcome-post-pace-set-record
With luck, Rapid Redux will enter the history books forever. And of course, one must remember that twenty straight wins might only be the beginning. Who knows how many consecutive victories he may end up claiming?
-Keelerman
Delta Jackpot Stakes: A Derby Win and You're In -- if you're lucky
I believe many will agree that Sabercat, winner of the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) two days ago, is one of the more exciting prospects for next year's Kentucky Derby. He is assured a berth in the race thanks to the $600,000 in graded earnings that he picked up for his victory. But while many conceive the Delta Jackpot as a "Win and You're In" for the Kentucky Derby, this is far from being the case.
Since 2007, when the race received graded status for the first time, four horses have claimed the title of Delta Jackpot champion. They are Z Humor, Big Drama, Rule, and Gourmet Dinner.
Z Humor is the only one to have made it to the Kentucky Derby. In the Delta Jackpot, he tracked a quick early pace before finishing in a dead-heat for the win with Turf War. However, he proved rather disappointing the following year, failing to crack the exacta in his three Derby preps before finishing fourteenth behind Big Brown in the Derby.
Big Drama won the 2008 Delta Jackpot, dueling for the lead before holding off a late charge from West Side Bernie to narrowly win. He raced successfully the following spring -- but in sprint races. It soon became apparent that the horse was best as a sprinter, and so his connections passed on the Kentucky Derby. As we all know, Big Drama won the 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I), affirming that the Derby distance would have been far beyond his capabilities.
In 2009, Rule was the name rolling off of everyone's tongues when he defeated Uh Oh Bango in sharp fashion. The following spring, he took the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) before finishing third in the Florida Derby (gr. I). While he did make it to Churchill Downs, he was not entered after failing to train sufficiently well to warrant a start in the Derby.
Gourmet Dinner blew past his opponents in the 2010 edition of the Delta Jackpot, defeating Decisive Moment in brilliant fashion, but after some strong early-season performances this spring, he dropped off of the Derby trail due to injury.
So while it is true that the $600,000 winner's share of the purse does theoretically secure the winner a start in the following year's Kentucky Derby, one must have a lot of luck to actually make it to Churchill for the big race. Hopefully, Sabercat will avoid injury and continue to make progress along the daunting Triple Crown Trail.
-Keelerman
Since 2007, when the race received graded status for the first time, four horses have claimed the title of Delta Jackpot champion. They are Z Humor, Big Drama, Rule, and Gourmet Dinner.
Z Humor is the only one to have made it to the Kentucky Derby. In the Delta Jackpot, he tracked a quick early pace before finishing in a dead-heat for the win with Turf War. However, he proved rather disappointing the following year, failing to crack the exacta in his three Derby preps before finishing fourteenth behind Big Brown in the Derby.
Big Drama won the 2008 Delta Jackpot, dueling for the lead before holding off a late charge from West Side Bernie to narrowly win. He raced successfully the following spring -- but in sprint races. It soon became apparent that the horse was best as a sprinter, and so his connections passed on the Kentucky Derby. As we all know, Big Drama won the 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I), affirming that the Derby distance would have been far beyond his capabilities.
In 2009, Rule was the name rolling off of everyone's tongues when he defeated Uh Oh Bango in sharp fashion. The following spring, he took the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) before finishing third in the Florida Derby (gr. I). While he did make it to Churchill Downs, he was not entered after failing to train sufficiently well to warrant a start in the Derby.
Gourmet Dinner blew past his opponents in the 2010 edition of the Delta Jackpot, defeating Decisive Moment in brilliant fashion, but after some strong early-season performances this spring, he dropped off of the Derby trail due to injury.
So while it is true that the $600,000 winner's share of the purse does theoretically secure the winner a start in the following year's Kentucky Derby, one must have a lot of luck to actually make it to Churchill for the big race. Hopefully, Sabercat will avoid injury and continue to make progress along the daunting Triple Crown Trail.
-Keelerman
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Delta Jackpot Thoughts and Analysis
Following a two-week post-Breeders' Cup break, I am back now and ready to resume blogging. As we are already well into November, thoughts are beginning to shift toward the 2012 Triple Crown Trail. So far, we have seen promising juveniles like Hansen, Union Rags, Creative Cause, and Dullahan stamp themselves as prominent contenders for next year's classics, along with names like Alpha, Drill, Take Charge Indy, Excaper, and Motor City. Up-and-comers like Officer Prado, Sword Trick, Casual Trick, Unbridled's Note add further depth to the division, and there are at least a few dozen other colts I have not mentioned who have the potential to seriously influence the 2012 Triple Crown.
Sometime later this month I shall present a highly in-depth list of juveniles that have caught my eye, ranging from proven grade I stakes winners to unknowns with nothing but a maiden win -- or less -- on their credentials. I expect this list to contain somewhere between fifty and one hundred horses, all of whom I will be watching closely as they advance through the early months of next year. But for the moment, let us take a look at one of the richest stakes races for juveniles of the year, the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot (gr. III) at Delta Downs.
Here are the entries:
PP/Horse/Jockey
1 Longview Drive - Joel Rosario
2 Seven Lively Sins - Julien Leparoux
3 Tiz Moe - Jamie Theriot
4 Basmati - Corey Nakatani
5 My Adonis - Elvis Trujillo
6 Drill - Martin Garcia
7 Laurie's Rocket - J Hernandez
8 Sabercat - A Melancon
9 Dougs Buddy - A Stokes
10 Jake Mo - D Simington
Clearly, Drill has the best credentials, but he is certainly not a lock here. A son of Lawyer Ron trained by Bob Baffert, the colt won the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) in September, but has disappointed somewhat in both the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). It's hard to say why he lost those two races. In the Norfolk, he didn't get the best trip and did emerge with a slight fever, but he didn't really have an obvious excuse in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Could it be that he is better around one turn than two? Both the Norfolk and the BC Juvenile were two-turn races; the Del Mar Futurity was around one. Could it be that he doesn't like dirt? His two wins to date have come over Del Mar's synthetic main track. While he is certainly a top-class competitor, he has a lot of questions to answer here today and I believe others may be just as good.
One of those others is My Adonis, a son of Pleasantly Perfect bred to excel at long distances. Trained by Kelly Breen, the colt won the Jean Laffitte Stakes over this very course and distance, which is a big plus considering that Delta Downs is a six-furlong racetrack with a rather deep main track. He has won his last two starts by a combined ten lengths and looks like a good one.
Tiz Moe finished second to My Adonis in the Jean Laffite, but was over five lengths behind at the finish and it's hard to see him improving enough in one start to catch My Adonis. Nevertheless, you can never count out a son of Tiznow, and Bret Calhoun should have him primed for a big effort.
Basmati and Longview Drive ship in from California for trainers Doug O'Neill and Jerry Hollendorfer, respectively. Basmati broke his maiden last time out in impressive front-running fashion, but lost his first five races. On the other hand, two of those were grade I stakes events, including a fifth-place effort in the Del Mar Futurity where he was beaten only a length and a half. Longview Drive has been racing on the state fair circuit in northern California, building up a three-race win streak in the process and most recently winning the Charlie Palmer Futurity at Fresno. His Beyer speed figures make him at the very least a competitor here, but he will have to overcome breaking from gate one. I find in intriguing that Joel Rosario is here to ride him.
Seven Lively Sins, from the barn of Albert Stall, Jr., brings graded-stakes quality credentials into the race. First time out in a maiden special weight going 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga, he finished third behind subsequent stakes winner and promising juvenile Officer Prado. He then shipped to Keeneland, where he went gate-to-wire in a similar seven-furlong event. Most recently, he set a quick pace in Churchill's Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) before being passed late by Motor City. However, he was only beaten three-quarters of a length and may have superior early speed to the majority of his rivals here, which could enable him to secure a terrific front-running trip.
In fact, the only horse I can see beating Seven Lively Sins to the lead is Jake Mo, who will be breaking from the far outside. Upon breaking his maiden by 9 1/4 his second time out in June, he won the Prairie Gold Juvenile Stakes at Prairie Meadows before finishing a late-running third in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington Park. Entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, he broke poorly and lost all chance but did pass four horses en route to finishing fifth. Now, Prairie Meadows is a blazingly fast racetrack, but Jake Mo neverthless set fractions of :21 1/5 and :44 3/5 when winning the Prairie Gold Juvenile there in July, and at Remington he was only a length and a half off of blazing :21 2/5 and :43 3/5 fractions. So if he gets away to a quick start, he has the speed to go to the lead and try to hold them all off. Allan Milligan is the trainer.
Laurie's Rocket won an allowance optional claiming race going 6 1/2 furlongs last time out, but the Stewart Dallas-trainee has yet to earn a Beyer over 69 and his worst performance in five starts came when stretching out to two-turns for the first time in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I), where he ran last, beaten 38 lengths. He may be better sprinting.
Sabercat is one of the more intriguing contenders. After losing his first three starts while sprinting on dirt and routing on turf, he found himself in a one-mile maiden special weight at Monmouth Park where he promptly went wire-to-wire while defeating fellow Jackpot contender My Adonis. He then stretched out to a mile and seventy yards in the Garden City Stakes and blew away the field to win by six lengths. He is bred to excel as the distances get longer and I'm really pretty excited about this colt's potential.
This brings us to the longest shot in the field, Doug's Buddy. Trained by Joan Petrowski, the colt is undefeated in four starts. So why in the world is he 20-1? Well, all four of his wins have come at Northlands Park in Canada and he may be slightly better sprinting. Nevertheless, it's hard to believe that an undefeated colt will be such large odds. He will be racing on Lasix for the first time.
My selections for this race are:
1 My Adonis
2 Seven Lively Sins
3 Sabercat
4 Drill
-Keelerman
Sometime later this month I shall present a highly in-depth list of juveniles that have caught my eye, ranging from proven grade I stakes winners to unknowns with nothing but a maiden win -- or less -- on their credentials. I expect this list to contain somewhere between fifty and one hundred horses, all of whom I will be watching closely as they advance through the early months of next year. But for the moment, let us take a look at one of the richest stakes races for juveniles of the year, the $1,000,000 Delta Jackpot (gr. III) at Delta Downs.
Here are the entries:
PP/Horse/Jockey
1 Longview Drive - Joel Rosario
2 Seven Lively Sins - Julien Leparoux
3 Tiz Moe - Jamie Theriot
4 Basmati - Corey Nakatani
5 My Adonis - Elvis Trujillo
6 Drill - Martin Garcia
7 Laurie's Rocket - J Hernandez
8 Sabercat - A Melancon
9 Dougs Buddy - A Stokes
10 Jake Mo - D Simington
Clearly, Drill has the best credentials, but he is certainly not a lock here. A son of Lawyer Ron trained by Bob Baffert, the colt won the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) in September, but has disappointed somewhat in both the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). It's hard to say why he lost those two races. In the Norfolk, he didn't get the best trip and did emerge with a slight fever, but he didn't really have an obvious excuse in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Could it be that he is better around one turn than two? Both the Norfolk and the BC Juvenile were two-turn races; the Del Mar Futurity was around one. Could it be that he doesn't like dirt? His two wins to date have come over Del Mar's synthetic main track. While he is certainly a top-class competitor, he has a lot of questions to answer here today and I believe others may be just as good.
One of those others is My Adonis, a son of Pleasantly Perfect bred to excel at long distances. Trained by Kelly Breen, the colt won the Jean Laffitte Stakes over this very course and distance, which is a big plus considering that Delta Downs is a six-furlong racetrack with a rather deep main track. He has won his last two starts by a combined ten lengths and looks like a good one.
Tiz Moe finished second to My Adonis in the Jean Laffite, but was over five lengths behind at the finish and it's hard to see him improving enough in one start to catch My Adonis. Nevertheless, you can never count out a son of Tiznow, and Bret Calhoun should have him primed for a big effort.
Basmati and Longview Drive ship in from California for trainers Doug O'Neill and Jerry Hollendorfer, respectively. Basmati broke his maiden last time out in impressive front-running fashion, but lost his first five races. On the other hand, two of those were grade I stakes events, including a fifth-place effort in the Del Mar Futurity where he was beaten only a length and a half. Longview Drive has been racing on the state fair circuit in northern California, building up a three-race win streak in the process and most recently winning the Charlie Palmer Futurity at Fresno. His Beyer speed figures make him at the very least a competitor here, but he will have to overcome breaking from gate one. I find in intriguing that Joel Rosario is here to ride him.
Seven Lively Sins, from the barn of Albert Stall, Jr., brings graded-stakes quality credentials into the race. First time out in a maiden special weight going 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga, he finished third behind subsequent stakes winner and promising juvenile Officer Prado. He then shipped to Keeneland, where he went gate-to-wire in a similar seven-furlong event. Most recently, he set a quick pace in Churchill's Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) before being passed late by Motor City. However, he was only beaten three-quarters of a length and may have superior early speed to the majority of his rivals here, which could enable him to secure a terrific front-running trip.
In fact, the only horse I can see beating Seven Lively Sins to the lead is Jake Mo, who will be breaking from the far outside. Upon breaking his maiden by 9 1/4 his second time out in June, he won the Prairie Gold Juvenile Stakes at Prairie Meadows before finishing a late-running third in the Kip Deville Stakes at Remington Park. Entered in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint, he broke poorly and lost all chance but did pass four horses en route to finishing fifth. Now, Prairie Meadows is a blazingly fast racetrack, but Jake Mo neverthless set fractions of :21 1/5 and :44 3/5 when winning the Prairie Gold Juvenile there in July, and at Remington he was only a length and a half off of blazing :21 2/5 and :43 3/5 fractions. So if he gets away to a quick start, he has the speed to go to the lead and try to hold them all off. Allan Milligan is the trainer.
Laurie's Rocket won an allowance optional claiming race going 6 1/2 furlongs last time out, but the Stewart Dallas-trainee has yet to earn a Beyer over 69 and his worst performance in five starts came when stretching out to two-turns for the first time in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I), where he ran last, beaten 38 lengths. He may be better sprinting.
Sabercat is one of the more intriguing contenders. After losing his first three starts while sprinting on dirt and routing on turf, he found himself in a one-mile maiden special weight at Monmouth Park where he promptly went wire-to-wire while defeating fellow Jackpot contender My Adonis. He then stretched out to a mile and seventy yards in the Garden City Stakes and blew away the field to win by six lengths. He is bred to excel as the distances get longer and I'm really pretty excited about this colt's potential.
This brings us to the longest shot in the field, Doug's Buddy. Trained by Joan Petrowski, the colt is undefeated in four starts. So why in the world is he 20-1? Well, all four of his wins have come at Northlands Park in Canada and he may be slightly better sprinting. Nevertheless, it's hard to believe that an undefeated colt will be such large odds. He will be racing on Lasix for the first time.
My selections for this race are:
1 My Adonis
2 Seven Lively Sins
3 Sabercat
4 Drill
-Keelerman
Saturday, November 05, 2011
DROSSELMEYER WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP CLASSIC!
Drosselmeyer flew home under Mike Smith late tonight at Churchill Downs to score an authorative victory in the $5,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I).
Game On Dude and Uncle Mo set the early pace, with So You Think in behind them and To Honor and Serve also up close. Havre de Grace and Flat Out were further off the pace in about mid-pack, with Drosselmeyer toward the rear of the field and Rattlesnake Bridge the early trailer.
Around the far turn Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve moved up to challenge Game On Dude for the lead, but as the field turned for home neither could sustain their bids and left Game On Dude the clear leader. Under Chantal Sutherland, the colt stayed on gamely through the stretch but was passed late by Drosselmeyer, who rocketed home on the far outside to win the race decisively in 2:04 flat.
Game On Dude held second over Ruler On Ice, with Havre de Grace finishing third and favored Flat Out fourth. Uncle Mo eventually tired to finish tenth.
Game On Dude and Uncle Mo set the early pace, with So You Think in behind them and To Honor and Serve also up close. Havre de Grace and Flat Out were further off the pace in about mid-pack, with Drosselmeyer toward the rear of the field and Rattlesnake Bridge the early trailer.
Around the far turn Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve moved up to challenge Game On Dude for the lead, but as the field turned for home neither could sustain their bids and left Game On Dude the clear leader. Under Chantal Sutherland, the colt stayed on gamely through the stretch but was passed late by Drosselmeyer, who rocketed home on the far outside to win the race decisively in 2:04 flat.
Game On Dude held second over Ruler On Ice, with Havre de Grace finishing third and favored Flat Out fourth. Uncle Mo eventually tired to finish tenth.
COURT VISION WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP MILE!
Court Vision pulled off the biggest upset in Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I) history when he held off Turallure by a desperate nose to win the event at 64-1.
The biggest story of the race, and perhaps the Breeders' Cup itself, was Goldikova's bid to win the race for the fourth consecutive year. A six-year-old mare, she had used her brilliant turf of foot to claim each of her previous victories and figured to do the same today, even though many felt she had lost a step this year.
Court Vision, ridden by Robby Albarado and trained by Dale Romans, got off to a fairly slow start and found himself well off of the early pace set by Get Stormy. Jeranimo was second, with Goldikova tucked into third just in behind the leaders along the fence. Sidney's Candy was also up close. The opening fractions were moderate, :24.17 and :48.18.
Rounding the far turn, Goldikova was still down along the rail with no racing room. However, jockey Olivier Peslier guided her out of traffic and into the clear as the field turned for home and she responded with a burst of speed to take the lead. However, Court Vision and Turallure were both charging home on the outside and while Goldikova dug in gamely, she was passed by both of them in the final sixteenth as Court Vision stopped the clock in 1:37.05. Goldikova held third by two lengths over Gio Ponti, who also had to battle his way through traffic to get clear running room.
There was an objection filed against Goldikova for interference turning for home, but it was not allowed.
-Keelerman
The biggest story of the race, and perhaps the Breeders' Cup itself, was Goldikova's bid to win the race for the fourth consecutive year. A six-year-old mare, she had used her brilliant turf of foot to claim each of her previous victories and figured to do the same today, even though many felt she had lost a step this year.
Court Vision, ridden by Robby Albarado and trained by Dale Romans, got off to a fairly slow start and found himself well off of the early pace set by Get Stormy. Jeranimo was second, with Goldikova tucked into third just in behind the leaders along the fence. Sidney's Candy was also up close. The opening fractions were moderate, :24.17 and :48.18.
Rounding the far turn, Goldikova was still down along the rail with no racing room. However, jockey Olivier Peslier guided her out of traffic and into the clear as the field turned for home and she responded with a burst of speed to take the lead. However, Court Vision and Turallure were both charging home on the outside and while Goldikova dug in gamely, she was passed by both of them in the final sixteenth as Court Vision stopped the clock in 1:37.05. Goldikova held third by two lengths over Gio Ponti, who also had to battle his way through traffic to get clear running room.
There was an objection filed against Goldikova for interference turning for home, but it was not allowed.
-Keelerman
HANSEN WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE!
Hansen bounded out of the gate and took a good field of juvenile colts gate-to-wire in the 28th renewal of the $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) this afternoon at Churchill Downs, likely sewing up the division championship in the process.
Under Ramon Dominguez, the Miker Maker-trained grey juvenile went straight to the lead and opened up a clear advantage through fractions of :23.26 and :47.39. No one was close to him in the early stages, although Creative Cause wasn't all that far behind. Favored Union Rags was hung wide on the first turn, while the well-bet Drill was far behind, while Dullahan was dead last and some fifteen lengths off of the pace.
Turning into the homestretch Hansen was confronted by Creative Cause and Union Rags, but kicked clear of them both for a brief moment. But both of his challengers had more left, and both began to narrow the gap again. Union Rags, who had taken the second turn four wide as well, drifted outward and then inward in the stretch but gamely closed in under Javier Castellano. In a photo finish, Hansen held him off to win by a head in 1:44.44.
It was a length further back to Creative Cause in third, who just held off the late-running Dullahan for that spot.
Under Ramon Dominguez, the Miker Maker-trained grey juvenile went straight to the lead and opened up a clear advantage through fractions of :23.26 and :47.39. No one was close to him in the early stages, although Creative Cause wasn't all that far behind. Favored Union Rags was hung wide on the first turn, while the well-bet Drill was far behind, while Dullahan was dead last and some fifteen lengths off of the pace.
Turning into the homestretch Hansen was confronted by Creative Cause and Union Rags, but kicked clear of them both for a brief moment. But both of his challengers had more left, and both began to narrow the gap again. Union Rags, who had taken the second turn four wide as well, drifted outward and then inward in the stretch but gamely closed in under Javier Castellano. In a photo finish, Hansen held him off to win by a head in 1:44.44.
It was a length further back to Creative Cause in third, who just held off the late-running Dullahan for that spot.
ST NICHOLAS ABBEY WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP TURF!
St Nicholas Abbey simply exploded inside the final furlong of the $3,000,000 Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I), roaring past Sea Moon and Brilliant Speed to win the prestigious event by two and a half lengths.
Under the eighteen-year-old jockey J. O'Brien, St Nicholas Abbey settled into second as Await the Dawn and Dean's Kitten set a moderate pace of :24.92 and :50.09. Midday, who got a bit upset before the race and arrived late at the starting gate, was in behind them with Brilliant Speed and Teaks North right up close as well. Sarafina and Sea Moon had settled off the pace, with Stately Victor trailing the field.
Dean's Kitten and Await the Dawn continued to lead the way until they entered the homestretch, where the 13-1 American hopeful Brilliant Speed took over the lead. Sea Moon was charging hard on the outside, but Sarafina -- despite being in perfect position entering the stretch -- was unable to quicken with them. Sea Moon took over the lead near the eighth pole, but St Nicholas Abbey flew home late to score convincing. The winner is trained by Aidan O'Brien, who took home his second Breeders' Cup victory following Wrote's win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) earlier this afternoon.
Sea Moon finished second, followed by Brilliant Speed and Sarafina. The final time was 2:28.85.
-Keelerman
-Keelerman
Under the eighteen-year-old jockey J. O'Brien, St Nicholas Abbey settled into second as Await the Dawn and Dean's Kitten set a moderate pace of :24.92 and :50.09. Midday, who got a bit upset before the race and arrived late at the starting gate, was in behind them with Brilliant Speed and Teaks North right up close as well. Sarafina and Sea Moon had settled off the pace, with Stately Victor trailing the field.
Dean's Kitten and Await the Dawn continued to lead the way until they entered the homestretch, where the 13-1 American hopeful Brilliant Speed took over the lead. Sea Moon was charging hard on the outside, but Sarafina -- despite being in perfect position entering the stretch -- was unable to quicken with them. Sea Moon took over the lead near the eighth pole, but St Nicholas Abbey flew home late to score convincing. The winner is trained by Aidan O'Brien, who took home his second Breeders' Cup victory following Wrote's win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) earlier this afternoon.
Sea Moon finished second, followed by Brilliant Speed and Sarafina. The final time was 2:28.85.
-Keelerman
-Keelerman
CALEB'S POSSE WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP DIRT MILE!
Caleb's Posse shot past Shackleford in the stretch to win the $1,000,000 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) in dominating fashion.
Under a good ride from Rajiv Maragh, Caleb's Posse settled off the pace as The Factor set a quick pace while being pressured by Shackleford and Tapizar. Jersey Town was in behind them with Trappe Shot not far behind either.
Turning for home Shackleford passed a tiring The Factor and opened up a clear lead in the stretch, but Caleb's Posse came flying home in the center of the racetrack to win the one-mile race in 1:34.59.
Shackleford finished the best of the rest in second, while Tres Borrachos came on to edge Trappe Shot for third.
-Keelerman
Under a good ride from Rajiv Maragh, Caleb's Posse settled off the pace as The Factor set a quick pace while being pressured by Shackleford and Tapizar. Jersey Town was in behind them with Trappe Shot not far behind either.
Turning for home Shackleford passed a tiring The Factor and opened up a clear lead in the stretch, but Caleb's Posse came flying home in the center of the racetrack to win the one-mile race in 1:34.59.
Shackleford finished the best of the rest in second, while Tres Borrachos came on to edge Trappe Shot for third.
-Keelerman
REGALLY READY WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP TURF SPRINT!
Regally Ready burst past Rapport at the top of the stretch and drew off to score a convincing win in the $1,000,000 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (gr. II).
Under Corey Nakatani, who was winning his second Breeders' Cup race this year, Regally Ready settled into an excellent spot toward the inside early on as Rapport set a quick pace. Surprisingly, Chamberlain Bridge and Caracortado were also close to the pace.
Turning for home Regally Ready took over the lead and kicked clear decisively. Great Attack and Perfect Officer attempted to give chase, but Regally Ready proved too good and hit the wire clear by two and a half lengths, stopping the clock for five furlongs in :56.48. Country Day got up to be second over Perfect Officer, with Great Attack coming home fourth.
-Keelerman
Under Corey Nakatani, who was winning his second Breeders' Cup race this year, Regally Ready settled into an excellent spot toward the inside early on as Rapport set a quick pace. Surprisingly, Chamberlain Bridge and Caracortado were also close to the pace.
Turning for home Regally Ready took over the lead and kicked clear decisively. Great Attack and Perfect Officer attempted to give chase, but Regally Ready proved too good and hit the wire clear by two and a half lengths, stopping the clock for five furlongs in :56.48. Country Day got up to be second over Perfect Officer, with Great Attack coming home fourth.
-Keelerman
AMAZOMBIE WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP SPRINT!
Amazombie wore down Force Freeze in deep stretch to win the $1,500,000 Breeders' Cup Sprint (gr. I) by a head.
Under Mike Smith, Amazombie settled into fifth as Euroears, Big Drama, Force Freeze, and Giant Ryan raced through a blazing opening quarter in :21.12. The blazing pace eventually cracked three of them, but Force Freeze was able to kick away from the field at the top of the stretch to open up a clear lead. But Amazombie, who received a perfect ride, came running hard on the outside to engage Force Freeze in a stretch battle, which he eventually won by a head in 1:09.17.
Jackson Bend came running late for third, but proved no match for the top two. Aikenite came on to be fourth.
-Keelerman
Under Mike Smith, Amazombie settled into fifth as Euroears, Big Drama, Force Freeze, and Giant Ryan raced through a blazing opening quarter in :21.12. The blazing pace eventually cracked three of them, but Force Freeze was able to kick away from the field at the top of the stretch to open up a clear lead. But Amazombie, who received a perfect ride, came running hard on the outside to engage Force Freeze in a stretch battle, which he eventually won by a head in 1:09.17.
Jackson Bend came running late for third, but proved no match for the top two. Aikenite came on to be fourth.
-Keelerman
BREEDERS' CUP 2011 SATURDAY PICKS
Here are my selections for the final nine races of the Breeders' Cup:
Marathon
The morning line favorite is A. U. MINER, who was placed third in this race last year after finishing fourth despite serious interference. The horse is in good form this year, most recently finishing a strong fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup while trying to close over a speed-favoring track. That said, the three Europeans could prove very tough to beat if they take to the dirt. MEEZNAH, a filly by Dynaformer, won a group II going 14.5 furlongs in Ireland and has proven herself to be a very talented stayer. HARRISON'S COVE, from the barn of Aidan O'Brien, has been competing in handicap races with some decent success but is taking a huge step up in class. BRIGANTIN is bred to be a turf horse, so it's hard to say how he will take to the dirt, but he has run third in a pair of group I races at 20 furlongs, including the Ascot Gold Cup. In addition, he beat eventual Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (Eng-II). Racing in the silks of Team Valor International, he could be a tough horse to beat if he handles the dirt. ELDAAFER won this race last year and returns in good form in an attempt to defend his title. BIRDRUN and CEASE will try and take this race on the front end, but I really don't see either of them staying the distance.
Keelerman
1. Meeznah
2. A. U. Miner
3. Eldaafer
4. Cease
J.R.
1. Pleasant Prince
2. Eldaafer
3. Brigantin
4. A. U. Miner
Juvenile Turf
This race looks almost as confusing as the Juvenile Fillies Turf yesterday. The European colts look like the ones to beat, with CASPAR NETSCHER looking best to me. Recently fifth in a sixteen-horse group I event despite considerable traffic, he will be stretching out beyond six furlongs for the first time but nevertheless looks like a serious contender. FARRAAJ has made four starts in England, never finishing worse than second but being soundly beaten last time out in his group stakes debut. WROTE is the only one to have raced beyond seven furlongs, competing in the one-mile Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Eng-II), but was tiring at the finish just a bit and one must question whether he's up to the usually quicker pace of an American race. MAJESTIC CITY and FINALE look like the best of the American contingent, but Majestic City has raced exclusively on synthetic tracks and will be trying turf for the first time, but has earned some big speed figures. Finale won the Summer Stakes (Can-II) for Todd Pletcher, has been training beautifully, and looks like a serious contender. Expect SHKSPEARE SHALIYAH and LUCKY CHAPPY to be putting in serious runs late.
Keelerman
1. Caspar Netscher
2. Majestic City
3. Finale
4. Lucky Chappy
J.R.
1. Shkspeare Shaliyah
2. Excaper
3. Caspar Netscher
4. Majestic City
Sprint
With one of the smallest fields of the entire Breeders' Cup, you would think that the Sprint would be one of the easiest races to handicap. Wrong! I find this race very confusing. BIG DRAMA is the morning line favorite, but he has raced only once since January and missed his final prep for this due to a fever. While he could take this on talent alone, this year's renewal looks tougher than last year's, where Big Drama got a clear lead and just kept on going. JACKSON BEND enters off of three terrific one-turn races, but shortens up to six furlongs. Expect him to be absolutely flying late in the race. EUROEARS ran last in the Vosburgh Stakes (gr. I) after a very troubled start, but had previously been racing well and warrants serious consideration despite the fact he will be breaking from the rail. AMAZOMBIE looks good off of a late-running win in the Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I) and is 3-for-4 on dirt. While he did get an ideal pace setup in the Ancient Title, it's very possible he could get it again today. GIANT RYAN has won six straight but his Vosburgh win was bias-aided. HAMAZING DESTINY was second in this race a year ago and is in sneaky good form. FORCE FREEZE finished a strong second in the Vosburgh, but he too was aided by the bias. AIKENITE has a big win here in the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II), but is better with more ground. APRIORITY was in terrific form during the first half of the year, but various issues have cost him any serious chance in his most recent two starts. He could return to form at a very good time today.
See how tough this race is? :)
Keelerman
1. Amazombie
2. Euroears
3. Jackson Bend
4. Force Freeze
J.R.
1. Apriority
2. Force Freeze
3. Big Drama
4. Hamazing Destiny
I really don't know what to think of this race. I've thought long and hard about picking Euroears to win, but worry that he will break poorly and get locked in behind Giant Ryan. I do know that Amazombie has been training brilliantly and that he should get the pace setup needed for him to run his best race. Jackson Bend should be charging furiously late, but this may just be a tad bit too short for him. But I won't be surprised at all if he wins. I certainly respect Big Drama, but I just don't know if he will be fit enough to win this under the circumstances.
Turf Sprint
Another terribly confusing, fourteen-horse field. Last year, I loved CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE for the entire month leading up to the race before jumping off the bandwagon at the last moment. I won't make that mistake again this year. Even though he has drawn gate fourteen, I feel that he is capable of overcoming the wide draw and taking this race for the second straight year. He has been training beautifully as well. PERFECT OFFICER sat close to a blazing pace in the Woodford Stakes and was just outfinished in a good performance. The same goes for GREAT ATTACK. He was even closer to that pace while coming off of a six-month layoff and tired after taking the lead, but should be sharper today. CARACORTADO has a whole lot of class, and while he hasn't run this short in a long time and could simply mow them down in the final sixteenth because he is that good. Expect to see the filly BROKEN DREAMS take a good run at the leaders at the top of the stretch and don't expect to see her tire. REGALLY READY won the grade III Turf Sprint Stakes here at Churchill during the spring meet and took the Nearctic Stakes (Can-I) last time out by a neck, so don't count him out either. HAVELOCK is consistent, but had a really good pace setup in the Woodford Stakes and may have trouble catching these from gate ten. We'll see.
Keelerman
1. Chamberlain Bridge
2. Perfect Officer
3. Caracortado
4. Broken Dreams
J.R.
1. Great Attack
2. Country Day
3. Regally Ready
4. Hoofit
Dirt Mile
The question is how quick will the pace be? If THE FACTOR gets away with an easy lead, he could prove impossible to catch. But if SHACKLEFORD and TAPIZAR, who both drew directly to his outside, try and stay with him early it could set the race up for a closer. I will take a shot and say that closer will be JERSEY TOWN. I don't believe that the complexion of the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) favored him at all, and his distant third-place finish may have been a result of that. I see him dropping back into mid-pack and making a good move in the stretch to take the lead and hold off the deep, deep closers. TRAPPE SHOT is the morning line favorite off of a fourth-place finish in the Vosburgh Stakes, where he was not helped by the bias, but one must question whether he can get the distance having not tried a route race since last year. But last year was when he finished second to eventual Champion 3yo colt Lookin at Lucky in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I), and this is only a one-turn mile, so he should be tough here. WILBURN is a three-year-old taking on elders after three straight wins, and should also be right there in the stretch. Count him out at your own risk. CALEB'S POSSE, who defeated Uncle Mo in the seven-furlong King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) two starts back, should also be dangerous.
Keelerman
1. Jersey Town
2. Wilburn
3. Caleb's Posse
4. The Factor
J.R.
1. Wilburn
2. Trappe Shot
3. Caleb's Posse
4. Tapizar
Turf
Will the Europeans sweep the superfecta? I think that is one of the biggest questions being asked. The American contenders don't look very strong, and the Euros look fabulous. But which Euro? MIDDAY won the 2009 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf and finished second in that race last year, but will try the boys this time around for the added distance. SARAFINA is one of the finest fillies in Europe with many group I wins to her name. She always fires and should be very dangerous. AWAIT THE DAWN was looking like a potential superstar until he got very sick during the summer. He recovered in time to train for this race, but enters off a several month layoff and may not be ready. Nevertheless, he may simply be talented enough to win. SEA MOON missed a six furlong workout on Thursday due to the turf course being closed and hasn't raced in two months, so although he is immensely talented he may not be sufficiently prepared. ST NICHOLAS ABBEY beat Midday earlier this year in the Coronation Cup (Eng-I) and ran fifth in the Arc. Expect him to be on or near the lead turning for home.
Keelerman
1. Await the Dawn
2. Sea Moon
3. Sarafina
4. Midday
J.R.
1. Sea Moon
2. Sarafina
3. Midday
4. St Nicholas Abbey
For me, it's very difficult to separate the Europeans. I've gone back and forth numerous times, originally choosing Sarafina before finally settling on Await the Dawn before switching to Sea Moon, then back to Await the Dawn. I would pick Sea Moon if he hadn't missed that Thursday workout, and I actually still may if I change my mind again later this afternoon. He is lightly raced and has a lot of potential. If I change my pick, I will announce it on my blog prior to post time.
Juvenile
I can't really see past UNION RAGS in this spot despite the fact that he will be making his two-turn debut. I see him settling into good position early from gate ten and exploding away from the field at the top of the stretch in much the same manner that My Miss Aurelia did yesterday. CREATIVE CAUSE won the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita over fellow Juvenile contender DRILL, but may not offer as much value as the latter, who didn't get the greatest of trips that day and came out of the race sick. ALPHA finished second to Union Rags in the Champagne and has a lot of potential, but will have to improve a great deal in order to win. CRUSADE and DADDY LONG LEGS ship in from Europe for Aidan O'Brien, but neither are proven on dirt. HANSEN is undefeated in two starts at Turfway and may try to take the field gate-to-wire. TAKE CHARGE INDY and PROSPECTIVE have been training well and may hit the board at a price, while DULLAHAN is clearly a serious contender but may prefer turf and polytrack.
Keelerman
1. Union Rags
2. Drill
3. Take Charge Indy
4. Creative Cause
J.R.
1. Drill
2. Union Rags
3. Optimizer
4. Hansen
While I do believe Union Rags will win this in sharp fashion, I am certainly aware that he is not a lock and J.R. may be right about Drill pulling off a mild upset.
Mile
Can GOLDIKOVA make history by winning her fourth straight Breeders' Cup Mile? Many feel that she has lost a step this year, but I don't agree. And even if she has, she can still win this race in sharp fashion. The only thing I can see beating her is soft ground, which is certainly a possibility but it should be fine. GIO PONTI was second to her in this race last year and enters off of a victory in the Shadwell Turf Mile (gr. I). A six-year-old with a potent late kick, if he can get the jump on Goldikova in the stretch he could prove extremely difficult to beat. COURAGEOUS CAT finished second to TURALLURE last time out in the Woodbine Mile (Can-I), but probably made the lead too soon. Expect to see him flying strongly at the finish. Three-year-old MR. COMMONS could put in a good run for John Shirreffs, and the other Europeans ZOFFANY, BYWORD, and STRONG SUIT could all contend, but I feel that Goldikova can do it again.
Keelerman
1. Goldikova
2. Gio Ponti
3. Courageous Cat
4. Mr. Commons
J.R.
1. Courageous Cat
2. Goldikova
3. Zoffany
4. Gio Ponti
J.R. feels that Goldikova will get buried along the rail and be unable to escape in time to catch Courageous Cat. Hopefully, that will not happen, for it would be immensely disappointing for Goldikova to end her career with a traffic-laden loss, but it the possibility does exist.
Classic
The big race of the day, and really of the year, is the 28th renewal of the $5,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I). There are all kinds of terrific storylines, but unless there is an unlikely dead-heat, only one horse can win.
My pick is FLAT OUT, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time out. Unlike the two morning line favorites, Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace, he has a victory at ten furlongs under his belt and is in the best form of his career. He has been training just beautifully at Churchill Downs and appears to be sitting on the race of his life. Perhaps he drew a bit too close to the rail, but he should nevertheless be able to work out a good trip coming from behind.
UNCLE MO, the Champion 2yo male of 2010 and winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) last year, is the morning line favorite. The Kentucky Derby favorite during the spring, he missed the Triple Crown and much of the summer due to a rare liver disease that could have ended his racing career. But he got back on track with a close second in the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) at the end of August going seven furlongs and subsequently dominated the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) winning with ease over Jackson Bend while earning a 118 Beyer speed figure. However, he has never won beyond a mile and a sixteenth and has never even raced beyond a mile and an eighth, so the Classic distance is a major question. But if he truly is the great horse many believe him to be, he can win on raw talent alone.
HAVRE DE GRACE couldn't quite match strides with the best fillies in the land last year, but the now four-year-old has turned into one of the most brilliant horses in the country and the leading contender for Horse of the Year. Trained by Larry Jones, she has won five of her six starts this year and defeated Flat Out in the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) going nine furlongs. Last time out in the Beldame Stakes, she absolutely dominated Royal Delta in the Beldame Stakes (gr. I) under no urging whatsoever. Royal Delta returned to win the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I) last night. While Havre de Grace has lost both of her starts at ten furlongs, those losses came by a neck and a nose to the magnificent champion filly Blind Luck. So don't think she can't get the distance just because she hasn't won at the distance.
SO YOU THINK is the big question mark. He has proven himself as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, ten furlong horse in the world . . . on turf. But dirt is an entirely different thing, and if he is to win this race he will have to take to it off of nothing more than a simple one-mile waltz around the track yesterday morning. He will wear blinkers to keep him focused and to try and keep some of the dirt out of his face.
DROSSELMEYER, RULER ON ICE, GAME ON DUDE, STAY THIRSTY, and TO HONOR AND SERVE could all be major players at decent odds. DROSSELMEYER finished second to Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup while rallying over a speed-favoring track and has been training beautifully. RULER ON ICE won the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) back in June and most recently finished second to To Honor and Serve in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) over another speed-favoring track. GAME ON DUDE won the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) in March set a blazing pace before hanging on to win the Goodwood Stakes (gr. I) last time out. STAY THIRSTY won the Jim Dandy (gr. II) and Travers (gr. I) but could only manage third in the JCGC. TO HONOR AND SERVE has won two straight, but his Pennsylvania Derby win was bias-aided and he has to break from the far outside post position.
ICE BOX, RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE, and HEADACHE will be longshots but all deserve mentions. ICE BOX hasn't run a good race since finishing second in the 2010 Kentucky Derby (gr. I), but is showing signs of returning to form and should outrun his odds. RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE finished second in the Travers behind Stay Thirsty, but could only manage third in the Pennsylvania Derby. However, with Calvin Borel in the saddle, expect to see this colt rallying up the rail in the stretch. Finally, HEADACHE won the Hawthorne Gold Cup (gr. II) going ten furlongs last time out, and should be coming from off the pace in the stretch if he is good enough.
Keelerman
1. Flat Out
2. Havre de Grace
3. So You Think
4. Drosselmeyer
J.R.
1. Game On Dude
2. So You Think
3. Ruler On Ice
4. Havre de Grace
Enjoy the Breeders' Cup races! First post time is 1:20 ET.
-Keelerman
Marathon
The morning line favorite is A. U. MINER, who was placed third in this race last year after finishing fourth despite serious interference. The horse is in good form this year, most recently finishing a strong fifth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup while trying to close over a speed-favoring track. That said, the three Europeans could prove very tough to beat if they take to the dirt. MEEZNAH, a filly by Dynaformer, won a group II going 14.5 furlongs in Ireland and has proven herself to be a very talented stayer. HARRISON'S COVE, from the barn of Aidan O'Brien, has been competing in handicap races with some decent success but is taking a huge step up in class. BRIGANTIN is bred to be a turf horse, so it's hard to say how he will take to the dirt, but he has run third in a pair of group I races at 20 furlongs, including the Ascot Gold Cup. In addition, he beat eventual Melbourne Cup winner Dunaden in the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (Eng-II). Racing in the silks of Team Valor International, he could be a tough horse to beat if he handles the dirt. ELDAAFER won this race last year and returns in good form in an attempt to defend his title. BIRDRUN and CEASE will try and take this race on the front end, but I really don't see either of them staying the distance.
Keelerman
1. Meeznah
2. A. U. Miner
3. Eldaafer
4. Cease
J.R.
1. Pleasant Prince
2. Eldaafer
3. Brigantin
4. A. U. Miner
Juvenile Turf
This race looks almost as confusing as the Juvenile Fillies Turf yesterday. The European colts look like the ones to beat, with CASPAR NETSCHER looking best to me. Recently fifth in a sixteen-horse group I event despite considerable traffic, he will be stretching out beyond six furlongs for the first time but nevertheless looks like a serious contender. FARRAAJ has made four starts in England, never finishing worse than second but being soundly beaten last time out in his group stakes debut. WROTE is the only one to have raced beyond seven furlongs, competing in the one-mile Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Eng-II), but was tiring at the finish just a bit and one must question whether he's up to the usually quicker pace of an American race. MAJESTIC CITY and FINALE look like the best of the American contingent, but Majestic City has raced exclusively on synthetic tracks and will be trying turf for the first time, but has earned some big speed figures. Finale won the Summer Stakes (Can-II) for Todd Pletcher, has been training beautifully, and looks like a serious contender. Expect SHKSPEARE SHALIYAH and LUCKY CHAPPY to be putting in serious runs late.
Keelerman
1. Caspar Netscher
2. Majestic City
3. Finale
4. Lucky Chappy
J.R.
1. Shkspeare Shaliyah
2. Excaper
3. Caspar Netscher
4. Majestic City
Sprint
With one of the smallest fields of the entire Breeders' Cup, you would think that the Sprint would be one of the easiest races to handicap. Wrong! I find this race very confusing. BIG DRAMA is the morning line favorite, but he has raced only once since January and missed his final prep for this due to a fever. While he could take this on talent alone, this year's renewal looks tougher than last year's, where Big Drama got a clear lead and just kept on going. JACKSON BEND enters off of three terrific one-turn races, but shortens up to six furlongs. Expect him to be absolutely flying late in the race. EUROEARS ran last in the Vosburgh Stakes (gr. I) after a very troubled start, but had previously been racing well and warrants serious consideration despite the fact he will be breaking from the rail. AMAZOMBIE looks good off of a late-running win in the Ancient Title Stakes (gr. I) and is 3-for-4 on dirt. While he did get an ideal pace setup in the Ancient Title, it's very possible he could get it again today. GIANT RYAN has won six straight but his Vosburgh win was bias-aided. HAMAZING DESTINY was second in this race a year ago and is in sneaky good form. FORCE FREEZE finished a strong second in the Vosburgh, but he too was aided by the bias. AIKENITE has a big win here in the Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II), but is better with more ground. APRIORITY was in terrific form during the first half of the year, but various issues have cost him any serious chance in his most recent two starts. He could return to form at a very good time today.
See how tough this race is? :)
Keelerman
1. Amazombie
2. Euroears
3. Jackson Bend
4. Force Freeze
J.R.
1. Apriority
2. Force Freeze
3. Big Drama
4. Hamazing Destiny
I really don't know what to think of this race. I've thought long and hard about picking Euroears to win, but worry that he will break poorly and get locked in behind Giant Ryan. I do know that Amazombie has been training brilliantly and that he should get the pace setup needed for him to run his best race. Jackson Bend should be charging furiously late, but this may just be a tad bit too short for him. But I won't be surprised at all if he wins. I certainly respect Big Drama, but I just don't know if he will be fit enough to win this under the circumstances.
Turf Sprint
Another terribly confusing, fourteen-horse field. Last year, I loved CHAMBERLAIN BRIDGE for the entire month leading up to the race before jumping off the bandwagon at the last moment. I won't make that mistake again this year. Even though he has drawn gate fourteen, I feel that he is capable of overcoming the wide draw and taking this race for the second straight year. He has been training beautifully as well. PERFECT OFFICER sat close to a blazing pace in the Woodford Stakes and was just outfinished in a good performance. The same goes for GREAT ATTACK. He was even closer to that pace while coming off of a six-month layoff and tired after taking the lead, but should be sharper today. CARACORTADO has a whole lot of class, and while he hasn't run this short in a long time and could simply mow them down in the final sixteenth because he is that good. Expect to see the filly BROKEN DREAMS take a good run at the leaders at the top of the stretch and don't expect to see her tire. REGALLY READY won the grade III Turf Sprint Stakes here at Churchill during the spring meet and took the Nearctic Stakes (Can-I) last time out by a neck, so don't count him out either. HAVELOCK is consistent, but had a really good pace setup in the Woodford Stakes and may have trouble catching these from gate ten. We'll see.
Keelerman
1. Chamberlain Bridge
2. Perfect Officer
3. Caracortado
4. Broken Dreams
J.R.
1. Great Attack
2. Country Day
3. Regally Ready
4. Hoofit
Dirt Mile
The question is how quick will the pace be? If THE FACTOR gets away with an easy lead, he could prove impossible to catch. But if SHACKLEFORD and TAPIZAR, who both drew directly to his outside, try and stay with him early it could set the race up for a closer. I will take a shot and say that closer will be JERSEY TOWN. I don't believe that the complexion of the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) favored him at all, and his distant third-place finish may have been a result of that. I see him dropping back into mid-pack and making a good move in the stretch to take the lead and hold off the deep, deep closers. TRAPPE SHOT is the morning line favorite off of a fourth-place finish in the Vosburgh Stakes, where he was not helped by the bias, but one must question whether he can get the distance having not tried a route race since last year. But last year was when he finished second to eventual Champion 3yo colt Lookin at Lucky in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I), and this is only a one-turn mile, so he should be tough here. WILBURN is a three-year-old taking on elders after three straight wins, and should also be right there in the stretch. Count him out at your own risk. CALEB'S POSSE, who defeated Uncle Mo in the seven-furlong King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) two starts back, should also be dangerous.
Keelerman
1. Jersey Town
2. Wilburn
3. Caleb's Posse
4. The Factor
J.R.
1. Wilburn
2. Trappe Shot
3. Caleb's Posse
4. Tapizar
Turf
Will the Europeans sweep the superfecta? I think that is one of the biggest questions being asked. The American contenders don't look very strong, and the Euros look fabulous. But which Euro? MIDDAY won the 2009 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf and finished second in that race last year, but will try the boys this time around for the added distance. SARAFINA is one of the finest fillies in Europe with many group I wins to her name. She always fires and should be very dangerous. AWAIT THE DAWN was looking like a potential superstar until he got very sick during the summer. He recovered in time to train for this race, but enters off a several month layoff and may not be ready. Nevertheless, he may simply be talented enough to win. SEA MOON missed a six furlong workout on Thursday due to the turf course being closed and hasn't raced in two months, so although he is immensely talented he may not be sufficiently prepared. ST NICHOLAS ABBEY beat Midday earlier this year in the Coronation Cup (Eng-I) and ran fifth in the Arc. Expect him to be on or near the lead turning for home.
Keelerman
1. Await the Dawn
2. Sea Moon
3. Sarafina
4. Midday
J.R.
1. Sea Moon
2. Sarafina
3. Midday
4. St Nicholas Abbey
For me, it's very difficult to separate the Europeans. I've gone back and forth numerous times, originally choosing Sarafina before finally settling on Await the Dawn before switching to Sea Moon, then back to Await the Dawn. I would pick Sea Moon if he hadn't missed that Thursday workout, and I actually still may if I change my mind again later this afternoon. He is lightly raced and has a lot of potential. If I change my pick, I will announce it on my blog prior to post time.
Juvenile
I can't really see past UNION RAGS in this spot despite the fact that he will be making his two-turn debut. I see him settling into good position early from gate ten and exploding away from the field at the top of the stretch in much the same manner that My Miss Aurelia did yesterday. CREATIVE CAUSE won the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita over fellow Juvenile contender DRILL, but may not offer as much value as the latter, who didn't get the greatest of trips that day and came out of the race sick. ALPHA finished second to Union Rags in the Champagne and has a lot of potential, but will have to improve a great deal in order to win. CRUSADE and DADDY LONG LEGS ship in from Europe for Aidan O'Brien, but neither are proven on dirt. HANSEN is undefeated in two starts at Turfway and may try to take the field gate-to-wire. TAKE CHARGE INDY and PROSPECTIVE have been training well and may hit the board at a price, while DULLAHAN is clearly a serious contender but may prefer turf and polytrack.
Keelerman
1. Union Rags
2. Drill
3. Take Charge Indy
4. Creative Cause
J.R.
1. Drill
2. Union Rags
3. Optimizer
4. Hansen
While I do believe Union Rags will win this in sharp fashion, I am certainly aware that he is not a lock and J.R. may be right about Drill pulling off a mild upset.
Mile
Can GOLDIKOVA make history by winning her fourth straight Breeders' Cup Mile? Many feel that she has lost a step this year, but I don't agree. And even if she has, she can still win this race in sharp fashion. The only thing I can see beating her is soft ground, which is certainly a possibility but it should be fine. GIO PONTI was second to her in this race last year and enters off of a victory in the Shadwell Turf Mile (gr. I). A six-year-old with a potent late kick, if he can get the jump on Goldikova in the stretch he could prove extremely difficult to beat. COURAGEOUS CAT finished second to TURALLURE last time out in the Woodbine Mile (Can-I), but probably made the lead too soon. Expect to see him flying strongly at the finish. Three-year-old MR. COMMONS could put in a good run for John Shirreffs, and the other Europeans ZOFFANY, BYWORD, and STRONG SUIT could all contend, but I feel that Goldikova can do it again.
Keelerman
1. Goldikova
2. Gio Ponti
3. Courageous Cat
4. Mr. Commons
J.R.
1. Courageous Cat
2. Goldikova
3. Zoffany
4. Gio Ponti
J.R. feels that Goldikova will get buried along the rail and be unable to escape in time to catch Courageous Cat. Hopefully, that will not happen, for it would be immensely disappointing for Goldikova to end her career with a traffic-laden loss, but it the possibility does exist.
Classic
The big race of the day, and really of the year, is the 28th renewal of the $5,000,000 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I). There are all kinds of terrific storylines, but unless there is an unlikely dead-heat, only one horse can win.
My pick is FLAT OUT, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time out. Unlike the two morning line favorites, Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace, he has a victory at ten furlongs under his belt and is in the best form of his career. He has been training just beautifully at Churchill Downs and appears to be sitting on the race of his life. Perhaps he drew a bit too close to the rail, but he should nevertheless be able to work out a good trip coming from behind.
UNCLE MO, the Champion 2yo male of 2010 and winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) last year, is the morning line favorite. The Kentucky Derby favorite during the spring, he missed the Triple Crown and much of the summer due to a rare liver disease that could have ended his racing career. But he got back on track with a close second in the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) at the end of August going seven furlongs and subsequently dominated the Kelso Handicap (gr. II) winning with ease over Jackson Bend while earning a 118 Beyer speed figure. However, he has never won beyond a mile and a sixteenth and has never even raced beyond a mile and an eighth, so the Classic distance is a major question. But if he truly is the great horse many believe him to be, he can win on raw talent alone.
HAVRE DE GRACE couldn't quite match strides with the best fillies in the land last year, but the now four-year-old has turned into one of the most brilliant horses in the country and the leading contender for Horse of the Year. Trained by Larry Jones, she has won five of her six starts this year and defeated Flat Out in the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) going nine furlongs. Last time out in the Beldame Stakes, she absolutely dominated Royal Delta in the Beldame Stakes (gr. I) under no urging whatsoever. Royal Delta returned to win the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I) last night. While Havre de Grace has lost both of her starts at ten furlongs, those losses came by a neck and a nose to the magnificent champion filly Blind Luck. So don't think she can't get the distance just because she hasn't won at the distance.
SO YOU THINK is the big question mark. He has proven himself as one of the greatest, if not the greatest, ten furlong horse in the world . . . on turf. But dirt is an entirely different thing, and if he is to win this race he will have to take to it off of nothing more than a simple one-mile waltz around the track yesterday morning. He will wear blinkers to keep him focused and to try and keep some of the dirt out of his face.
DROSSELMEYER, RULER ON ICE, GAME ON DUDE, STAY THIRSTY, and TO HONOR AND SERVE could all be major players at decent odds. DROSSELMEYER finished second to Flat Out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup while rallying over a speed-favoring track and has been training beautifully. RULER ON ICE won the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) back in June and most recently finished second to To Honor and Serve in the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) over another speed-favoring track. GAME ON DUDE won the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) in March set a blazing pace before hanging on to win the Goodwood Stakes (gr. I) last time out. STAY THIRSTY won the Jim Dandy (gr. II) and Travers (gr. I) but could only manage third in the JCGC. TO HONOR AND SERVE has won two straight, but his Pennsylvania Derby win was bias-aided and he has to break from the far outside post position.
ICE BOX, RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE, and HEADACHE will be longshots but all deserve mentions. ICE BOX hasn't run a good race since finishing second in the 2010 Kentucky Derby (gr. I), but is showing signs of returning to form and should outrun his odds. RATTLESNAKE BRIDGE finished second in the Travers behind Stay Thirsty, but could only manage third in the Pennsylvania Derby. However, with Calvin Borel in the saddle, expect to see this colt rallying up the rail in the stretch. Finally, HEADACHE won the Hawthorne Gold Cup (gr. II) going ten furlongs last time out, and should be coming from off the pace in the stretch if he is good enough.
Keelerman
1. Flat Out
2. Havre de Grace
3. So You Think
4. Drosselmeyer
J.R.
1. Game On Dude
2. So You Think
3. Ruler On Ice
4. Havre de Grace
Enjoy the Breeders' Cup races! First post time is 1:20 ET.
-Keelerman
WROTE WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE TURF!
Wrote blew past Farraaj and Excaper in deep stretch to win the $1,000,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II) by two lengths.
Ridden by Ryan Moore, the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt settled off the pace as Majestic City set a fairly quick pace. Farraaj was not far behind him tucked along the rail, while State of Play and Excaper were up close too. Favored Finale was caught four wide on the first turn.
Turning into the homestretch Majestic City began to tire and was quickly confronted by Farraaj and Excaper, the latter a 30-1 shot. But on the far outside came Wrote, charging furiously to get up in time to win by two lengths. Excaper ever so narrowly held second over Farraaj, while Lucky Chappy came flying late to finish fourth.
-Keelerman
Ridden by Ryan Moore, the Aidan O'Brien-trained colt settled off the pace as Majestic City set a fairly quick pace. Farraaj was not far behind him tucked along the rail, while State of Play and Excaper were up close too. Favored Finale was caught four wide on the first turn.
Turning into the homestretch Majestic City began to tire and was quickly confronted by Farraaj and Excaper, the latter a 30-1 shot. But on the far outside came Wrote, charging furiously to get up in time to win by two lengths. Excaper ever so narrowly held second over Farraaj, while Lucky Chappy came flying late to finish fourth.
-Keelerman
AFLEET AGAIN WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP MARATHON!
Afleet Again pulled off one of the largest upset in the history of the Breeders' Cup when he caught Birdrun in deep stretch to win the $500,000 Breeders' Cup Marathon (gr. III) at odds of 40-1.
Patiently ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, the grey colt settled into mid-pack early on as Pleasant Prince and Baryshnikov set a blazing early pace for the distance of :23.47, :48.05, and 1:12.65. Birdrun was tucked in third along the rail, with Meeznah right behind them in fourth early on. However, Meeznah dropped out of contention after about five or six furlongs and was eased.
On the far turn, Cease made a strong run to take the lead but was quickly confronted by Birdun. The latter took over the lead in deep stretch, but Afleet Again came charging furiously on the outside to win the race by two lengths, completing the mile and three-quarter race in 3:00.39.
Birdrun held second by a head over the late-running Giant Oak, while Pleasant Prince held on surprisingly well to finish fourth. Favored A. U. Miner showed no early speed, dropped way behind, and never got into contention.
-Keelerman
Patiently ridden by Cornelio Velasquez, the grey colt settled into mid-pack early on as Pleasant Prince and Baryshnikov set a blazing early pace for the distance of :23.47, :48.05, and 1:12.65. Birdrun was tucked in third along the rail, with Meeznah right behind them in fourth early on. However, Meeznah dropped out of contention after about five or six furlongs and was eased.
On the far turn, Cease made a strong run to take the lead but was quickly confronted by Birdun. The latter took over the lead in deep stretch, but Afleet Again came charging furiously on the outside to win the race by two lengths, completing the mile and three-quarter race in 3:00.39.
Birdrun held second by a head over the late-running Giant Oak, while Pleasant Prince held on surprisingly well to finish fourth. Favored A. U. Miner showed no early speed, dropped way behind, and never got into contention.
-Keelerman
Breeders' Cup Saturday 2011
1:15 ET - Happy Breeders' Cup Saturday 2011 everyone! The sun is shining at Churchill Downs this afternoon, where the final nine Breeders' Cup races are scheduled to be run over the course of the afternoon.
It is currently five minutes to post time for the first of today's Breeders' Cup races, the $500,000 Marathon (gr. III). At the moment, A. U. Miner is the favorite at 7-2, with Birdrun and Cease the co-second choices at 9-2. Brigantin is 5-1, Meeznah 8-1, and Giant Oak 8-1. Eldaafer, last year's winner, is 12-1.
The main track is labeled fast, while the turf course is still good.
1:46 - The upset-trend started yesterday continued today when Afleet Again upset the Breeders' Cup Marathon at 41-1. Cease looked terrific at the top of the stretch and looked to be on his way to victory, but just couldn't get the distance and tired in the final furlongs. This set the race up for Afleet Again, a beautiful grey colt who rallied on the far outside to win by two. Meeznah looked good early on, tracking the pace in fourth, but suddenly dropped out of contention despite serious urging after about five furlongs and was eased.
Seventeen minutes now until the second BC race of the day, the Juvenile Turf (gr. II). Finale is currently the 5-1 favorite -- yes, 5-1. Caspar Netscher is 6-1, with six others horses between 6-1 and 9-1. This race looks ripe for upset, considering how evenly matched the contenders appear to be.
2:27 - I had the right idea picking a European colt to win, but I had the wrong colt. Wrote dominated in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II), blowing past Excaper and Farraaj to win by two lengths. My selections, Caspar Netscher, never got into contention after being a bit rank early and failed to hit the board.
Up next is the Sprint, where Jackson Bend is the 2-1 favorite. Euroears and Big Drama are both 9-2.
2:53 - Amazombie and Force Freeze put on a terrific show in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, battling eachother down the homestretch with Amazombie coming out on top by a head. Euroears never really had a chance, breaking poorly before being rushed up to help set a blazing pace of :21.12. This was an extremely difficult trip, and so thus he can be forgiven for fading so poorly.
For jockey Mike Smith, it was his fourteenth win in a Breeders' Cup race.
3:55 - The Turf Sprint looked like a very difficult race to handicap on paper, but it really wasn't as 2-1 favorite Regally Ready kicked clear in the stretch to win the race by two lengths. Country Day, Perfect Officer, and Great Attack all ran admirably to fill out the superfecta, but were no match for the winner. I was a bit surprised to see Caracortado and Chamberlain Bridge so close to the early pace, but I guess their outside post positions (14 and 13, respectively) forced them to commit to staying close -- and wide, as it turned out.
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) is currently five minutes away, and the three-year-old Wilburn is currently the 5-2 favorite. Trappe Shot, the morning line favorite, is 3-1.
5:10 - Two more races in the history books. Two favorites lost, but the winners were very logical. Caleb's Posse demonstrated just how much better he is going one turn rather than two in the Dirt Mile when he simply blew past Shackleford in the stretch to win going away.
The turf went to a European shipper as expected, but not one of the favored shippers. St Nicholas Abbey blew past them all in the homestretch to win the race in powerful fashion. Sea Moon ran strongly to be second, but could the missed workout on Thursday have been the difference between winning and losing? Brilliant Speed was a bit of a surprise, for the American colt was not expected to be capable of contending against the five top-class Euros in the race, yet beat Sarafina, Midday, and Await the Dawn to the wire to finish third. As for Sarafina, she just couldn't quicken with the leaders when asked for run at the top of the stretch.
Back to the Dirt Mile. Perhaps this is crazy, but could Caleb's Posse be the Champion three-year-old male of 2011? He now has victories in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I), King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I), Amsterdam Stakes (gr. II), Ohio Derby (gr. III), and Smarty Jones Stakes, in addition to a second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and Indiana Derby (gr. II).
Let us compare the number of grade I victories earned this year by the top three-year-old colts:
Caleb's Posse - 2
Stay Thirsty - 1
Shackleford - 1
Ruler On Ice - 1
Coil - 1 (Not competing in the Breeders' Cup)
Animal Kingdom - 1 (Out with an injury)
Uncle Mo - 0
To Honor and Serve - 0
I think this leaves Caleb's Posse with very good credentials. If the other three-year-olds all disappoint in the Breeders' Cup Classic, then I believe Caleb's Posse deserves the honor.
5:45 - Hansen probably sewed up the division honors with a narrow victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), holding off a late charge from favored Union Rags to win by a head. I feel that Union Rags was probably the best horse in the race, for he was four wide every step of the way and just -- just! -- missed. Give credit to Hansen for setting a quick pace and holding him off, but Union Rags looks like a legitimate favorite for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Creative Cause and Dullahan also ran huge to be third and fourth, respectively, but Creative Cause did get a dream trip. Dullahan, however, charged from last and fifteen lengths off the pace to miss by about a length. Those four colts look like the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
In just eighteen minutes now, Goldikova shall go for her historic and unimaginable fourth straight victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I). She is currently the 6-5 favorite to complete the sweep, although she will have to break from gate one in order to do it. Gio Ponti is the 6-1 second choice, with Courageous Cat and Strong Suit both 8-1.
6:30 - Wow. . . what can you say? Goldikova is a great horse, and gave it her best shot, but today she just wasn't good enough to hang while trying to win her fourth Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I), an amazing feat that might have never been equaled. But while the same brilliant acceleration that earned her her three victories carried her to the lead in the stretch of today's race, it wasn't enough to hold off the late runs turned in by Court Vision and Turallure, the former of whom got his nose down in front at 64-1 to win the race.
At least Goldikova found herself a worthy successor. Court Vision has previously finished behind Goldikova in this race twice, running fourth in 2009 and fifth in 2010. An unlucky horse who hasn't finished better than fourth in over a year, Court Vision had to circle the field on the far outside, but still found enough run to get the job done. Goldikova tried gallantly to stem off his furious run in deep stretch, and briefly appeared capable of turning him back, but she has never cared for a wet track and perhaps the "good" turf course was one of the reasons why she couldn't get the job done. But nevertheless, no one can take away the fact that she won three straight BC Miles, whereas no horse had ever won any Breeders' Cup event more than twice prior to her. She has earned herself a place in racing history, and most likely the Hall of Fame. What a mare.
6:41 - Okay -- I just saw the will pays for the pick 6. Apparently, someone has managed to come up with Court Vision, Hansen, St Nicholas Abbey, Caleb's Posse, and Regally Ready to be live in the pick 6. But this bettor is not live to any of the favorites. Not Flat Out. Not Havre de Grace. Not Uncle Mo. Not So You Think. This bettor is live to Ruler On Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge.
7:35 - During the final two weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup, all of the reports from those watching the workouts of the Classic horses stated that Drosselmeyer was training beautifully for Bill Mott and was sitting on a huge race. But I doubt that anyone knew just how big a race Drosselmeyer was capable of running until he simply blew past Game On Dude in deep stretch to win the race in completely decisive fashion. For jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bill Mott, Drosselmeyer gave them each their second wins of this year's Breeders' Cup, followed Smith's win in the Sprint and Mott's victory in the Ladies' Classic last night. Give a lot of credit to Game On Dude, who set the pace, turned back Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve, and still had enough left in the tank to hold second. Ruler On Ice came on to be third, while Havre de Grace and Flat out never seriously threatened while finishing fourth and fifth.
It's been an exciting Breeders' Cup, with upsets occuring in eleven of the fifteen races. The winning favorites were Secret Circle (Juvenile Sprint), My Miss Aurelia (Juvenile Fillies), Royal Delta (Ladies' Classic), and Regally Ready (Turf Sprint).
Well, there will be plenty of Eclipse awards to debate during the coming months, including Horse of the Year, Champion Older Male, Champion Three-Year-Old Male, Female Sprinter, and Female Turf Horse. I guess we should get ready to debate. I hope you enjoyed the Breeders' Cup!
-Keelerman
It is currently five minutes to post time for the first of today's Breeders' Cup races, the $500,000 Marathon (gr. III). At the moment, A. U. Miner is the favorite at 7-2, with Birdrun and Cease the co-second choices at 9-2. Brigantin is 5-1, Meeznah 8-1, and Giant Oak 8-1. Eldaafer, last year's winner, is 12-1.
The main track is labeled fast, while the turf course is still good.
1:46 - The upset-trend started yesterday continued today when Afleet Again upset the Breeders' Cup Marathon at 41-1. Cease looked terrific at the top of the stretch and looked to be on his way to victory, but just couldn't get the distance and tired in the final furlongs. This set the race up for Afleet Again, a beautiful grey colt who rallied on the far outside to win by two. Meeznah looked good early on, tracking the pace in fourth, but suddenly dropped out of contention despite serious urging after about five furlongs and was eased.
Seventeen minutes now until the second BC race of the day, the Juvenile Turf (gr. II). Finale is currently the 5-1 favorite -- yes, 5-1. Caspar Netscher is 6-1, with six others horses between 6-1 and 9-1. This race looks ripe for upset, considering how evenly matched the contenders appear to be.
2:27 - I had the right idea picking a European colt to win, but I had the wrong colt. Wrote dominated in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. II), blowing past Excaper and Farraaj to win by two lengths. My selections, Caspar Netscher, never got into contention after being a bit rank early and failed to hit the board.
Up next is the Sprint, where Jackson Bend is the 2-1 favorite. Euroears and Big Drama are both 9-2.
2:53 - Amazombie and Force Freeze put on a terrific show in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, battling eachother down the homestretch with Amazombie coming out on top by a head. Euroears never really had a chance, breaking poorly before being rushed up to help set a blazing pace of :21.12. This was an extremely difficult trip, and so thus he can be forgiven for fading so poorly.
For jockey Mike Smith, it was his fourteenth win in a Breeders' Cup race.
3:55 - The Turf Sprint looked like a very difficult race to handicap on paper, but it really wasn't as 2-1 favorite Regally Ready kicked clear in the stretch to win the race by two lengths. Country Day, Perfect Officer, and Great Attack all ran admirably to fill out the superfecta, but were no match for the winner. I was a bit surprised to see Caracortado and Chamberlain Bridge so close to the early pace, but I guess their outside post positions (14 and 13, respectively) forced them to commit to staying close -- and wide, as it turned out.
The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) is currently five minutes away, and the three-year-old Wilburn is currently the 5-2 favorite. Trappe Shot, the morning line favorite, is 3-1.
5:10 - Two more races in the history books. Two favorites lost, but the winners were very logical. Caleb's Posse demonstrated just how much better he is going one turn rather than two in the Dirt Mile when he simply blew past Shackleford in the stretch to win going away.
The turf went to a European shipper as expected, but not one of the favored shippers. St Nicholas Abbey blew past them all in the homestretch to win the race in powerful fashion. Sea Moon ran strongly to be second, but could the missed workout on Thursday have been the difference between winning and losing? Brilliant Speed was a bit of a surprise, for the American colt was not expected to be capable of contending against the five top-class Euros in the race, yet beat Sarafina, Midday, and Await the Dawn to the wire to finish third. As for Sarafina, she just couldn't quicken with the leaders when asked for run at the top of the stretch.
Back to the Dirt Mile. Perhaps this is crazy, but could Caleb's Posse be the Champion three-year-old male of 2011? He now has victories in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I), King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I), Amsterdam Stakes (gr. II), Ohio Derby (gr. III), and Smarty Jones Stakes, in addition to a second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and Indiana Derby (gr. II).
Let us compare the number of grade I victories earned this year by the top three-year-old colts:
Caleb's Posse - 2
Stay Thirsty - 1
Shackleford - 1
Ruler On Ice - 1
Coil - 1 (Not competing in the Breeders' Cup)
Animal Kingdom - 1 (Out with an injury)
Uncle Mo - 0
To Honor and Serve - 0
I think this leaves Caleb's Posse with very good credentials. If the other three-year-olds all disappoint in the Breeders' Cup Classic, then I believe Caleb's Posse deserves the honor.
5:45 - Hansen probably sewed up the division honors with a narrow victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), holding off a late charge from favored Union Rags to win by a head. I feel that Union Rags was probably the best horse in the race, for he was four wide every step of the way and just -- just! -- missed. Give credit to Hansen for setting a quick pace and holding him off, but Union Rags looks like a legitimate favorite for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Creative Cause and Dullahan also ran huge to be third and fourth, respectively, but Creative Cause did get a dream trip. Dullahan, however, charged from last and fifteen lengths off the pace to miss by about a length. Those four colts look like the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby.
In just eighteen minutes now, Goldikova shall go for her historic and unimaginable fourth straight victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I). She is currently the 6-5 favorite to complete the sweep, although she will have to break from gate one in order to do it. Gio Ponti is the 6-1 second choice, with Courageous Cat and Strong Suit both 8-1.
6:30 - Wow. . . what can you say? Goldikova is a great horse, and gave it her best shot, but today she just wasn't good enough to hang while trying to win her fourth Breeders' Cup Mile (gr. I), an amazing feat that might have never been equaled. But while the same brilliant acceleration that earned her her three victories carried her to the lead in the stretch of today's race, it wasn't enough to hold off the late runs turned in by Court Vision and Turallure, the former of whom got his nose down in front at 64-1 to win the race.
At least Goldikova found herself a worthy successor. Court Vision has previously finished behind Goldikova in this race twice, running fourth in 2009 and fifth in 2010. An unlucky horse who hasn't finished better than fourth in over a year, Court Vision had to circle the field on the far outside, but still found enough run to get the job done. Goldikova tried gallantly to stem off his furious run in deep stretch, and briefly appeared capable of turning him back, but she has never cared for a wet track and perhaps the "good" turf course was one of the reasons why she couldn't get the job done. But nevertheless, no one can take away the fact that she won three straight BC Miles, whereas no horse had ever won any Breeders' Cup event more than twice prior to her. She has earned herself a place in racing history, and most likely the Hall of Fame. What a mare.
6:41 - Okay -- I just saw the will pays for the pick 6. Apparently, someone has managed to come up with Court Vision, Hansen, St Nicholas Abbey, Caleb's Posse, and Regally Ready to be live in the pick 6. But this bettor is not live to any of the favorites. Not Flat Out. Not Havre de Grace. Not Uncle Mo. Not So You Think. This bettor is live to Ruler On Ice and Rattlesnake Bridge.
7:35 - During the final two weeks leading up to the Breeders' Cup, all of the reports from those watching the workouts of the Classic horses stated that Drosselmeyer was training beautifully for Bill Mott and was sitting on a huge race. But I doubt that anyone knew just how big a race Drosselmeyer was capable of running until he simply blew past Game On Dude in deep stretch to win the race in completely decisive fashion. For jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bill Mott, Drosselmeyer gave them each their second wins of this year's Breeders' Cup, followed Smith's win in the Sprint and Mott's victory in the Ladies' Classic last night. Give a lot of credit to Game On Dude, who set the pace, turned back Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve, and still had enough left in the tank to hold second. Ruler On Ice came on to be third, while Havre de Grace and Flat out never seriously threatened while finishing fourth and fifth.
It's been an exciting Breeders' Cup, with upsets occuring in eleven of the fifteen races. The winning favorites were Secret Circle (Juvenile Sprint), My Miss Aurelia (Juvenile Fillies), Royal Delta (Ladies' Classic), and Regally Ready (Turf Sprint).
Well, there will be plenty of Eclipse awards to debate during the coming months, including Horse of the Year, Champion Older Male, Champion Three-Year-Old Male, Female Sprinter, and Female Turf Horse. I guess we should get ready to debate. I hope you enjoyed the Breeders' Cup!
-Keelerman
Friday, November 04, 2011
ROYAL DELTA WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP LADIES' CLASSIC!
Royal Delta wore down It's Tricky and Plum Pretty in the final eighth of a mile to win the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I) by two lengths.
Under Jose Lezcano, the filly settled into the fourth spot early on as Plum Pretty set a slow pace of :24.18 and :49 flat. She was being tracked by Ask the Moon, with It's Tricky rating in third.
Plum Pretty turned for home going easily, but was unable to kick away from the closers and was soon passed by It's Tricky. Early in the stretch Royal Delta appeared to be flattening out and going nowhere, but she suddenly found another gear and came on strongly to wear down It's Tricky for a fairly decisive win in 1:50.78.
It's Tricky finished much the best of the rest in second, followed by the late-running Pachattack and Ultra Blend. Plum Pretty tired badly inside the final eighth to finish fifth.
-Keelerman
Under Jose Lezcano, the filly settled into the fourth spot early on as Plum Pretty set a slow pace of :24.18 and :49 flat. She was being tracked by Ask the Moon, with It's Tricky rating in third.
Plum Pretty turned for home going easily, but was unable to kick away from the closers and was soon passed by It's Tricky. Early in the stretch Royal Delta appeared to be flattening out and going nowhere, but she suddenly found another gear and came on strongly to wear down It's Tricky for a fairly decisive win in 1:50.78.
It's Tricky finished much the best of the rest in second, followed by the late-running Pachattack and Ultra Blend. Plum Pretty tired badly inside the final eighth to finish fifth.
-Keelerman
PERFECT SHIRL WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP FILLY & MARE TURF!
Perfect Shirl pulled off a 25-1 upset in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (gr. I) at Churchill Downs, holding off several late challenges to win by half a length.
Under John Velazquez, the four-year-old daughter of Perfect Soul settled along the inside in seventh or eighth early on as Dubawi Heights and Dynaslew set the early pace. Stacelita was tucked into third place along the rail, followed closely by Nahrain and Shared Account. Arune, Misty for Me, and Cambina trailed the field.
The field remained bunched through slow fractions of :25.44 and :51.07. Turning into the homestretch a host of horses made their runs for the lead. Nahrain was the first to pass Dubawi Heights, but Stacelita was hopeslessly buried in a pocket and unable to find racing room. Then Perfect Shirl made her bid for the lead and took over in deep stretch. Misty for Me and Distorted Legacy put in tremendous rallies on the far outside, but neither could catch the longshot. Trained by Roger Attfield, Perfect Shirl stopped the clock in 2:18.62. Nahrain held second in a three-way photo footage over Misty for Me, while Distorted Legacy finished fourth. Stacelita came home fifth, beaten less than a length in a tough beat.
-Keelerman
Under John Velazquez, the four-year-old daughter of Perfect Soul settled along the inside in seventh or eighth early on as Dubawi Heights and Dynaslew set the early pace. Stacelita was tucked into third place along the rail, followed closely by Nahrain and Shared Account. Arune, Misty for Me, and Cambina trailed the field.
The field remained bunched through slow fractions of :25.44 and :51.07. Turning into the homestretch a host of horses made their runs for the lead. Nahrain was the first to pass Dubawi Heights, but Stacelita was hopeslessly buried in a pocket and unable to find racing room. Then Perfect Shirl made her bid for the lead and took over in deep stretch. Misty for Me and Distorted Legacy put in tremendous rallies on the far outside, but neither could catch the longshot. Trained by Roger Attfield, Perfect Shirl stopped the clock in 2:18.62. Nahrain held second in a three-way photo footage over Misty for Me, while Distorted Legacy finished fourth. Stacelita came home fifth, beaten less than a length in a tough beat.
-Keelerman
MY MISS AURELIA WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES!
My Miss Aurelia stamped herself as the champion juvenile filly of 2011 and the early favorite for the 2012 Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) with an authoritave victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I).
Under Corey Nakatani, the filly broke beautifully from gate nine and settled into the second position as Candrea set the early pace. Say a Novena was also up close to the pace, while second choice Grace Hall was in the front end of mid-pack.
Turning into the homestretch Nakatani asked his filly to go and she responded with a burst of speed that put her well clear of the field. Grace Hall gamely gave chase, and Weemissfrankie had circled the field to get into third, but My Miss Aurelia proved decisively best en route to a 3 1/2 length triumph.
Grace Hall finished second, followed by Weemissfrankie and Self Preservation. The winner is trained by Steve Asmussen and owned by George Bolton and Stonestreet Stables.
-Keelerman
Under Corey Nakatani, the filly broke beautifully from gate nine and settled into the second position as Candrea set the early pace. Say a Novena was also up close to the pace, while second choice Grace Hall was in the front end of mid-pack.
Turning into the homestretch Nakatani asked his filly to go and she responded with a burst of speed that put her well clear of the field. Grace Hall gamely gave chase, and Weemissfrankie had circled the field to get into third, but My Miss Aurelia proved decisively best en route to a 3 1/2 length triumph.
Grace Hall finished second, followed by Weemissfrankie and Self Preservation. The winner is trained by Steve Asmussen and owned by George Bolton and Stonestreet Stables.
-Keelerman
MUSICAL ROMANCE WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP FILLY AND MARE SPRINT!
Musical Romance pulled off a tremendous upset in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I) this afternoon, pulling away from a number of horses in the final eighth of a mile to win the race by about a length and a half.
Under J. C. Leyva, a jockey riding in his first Breeders' Cup race, 20-1 shot Musical Romance broke well enough and settled just off the pace in second as Golden Mystery rattled off fractions of :22.40 and :45.71. In the meantime, heavily favored Turbulent Descent was getting a rough trip. After getting squeezed at the start and checking sharply on the backstretch, she was forced to circle the field four wide to reach contention as the field turned for home. For a brief moment she struck the front, but Musical Romance was right on the inside and came on strongly to win the race in decisive fashion. The final time was 1:23.47. Switch rallied from last on the far outside to occupy the runner-up spot for the second straight year, just nosing out 25-1 shot Her Smile. Pomeroy's Pistol finished further back in fourth. Turbulent Descent tired to fifth, followed by Champagne d'Oro, Golden Mystery, Irish Gypsy, Tanda, Tamarind Hall, Great Hot, and Tar Heel Mom.
-Keelerman
Under J. C. Leyva, a jockey riding in his first Breeders' Cup race, 20-1 shot Musical Romance broke well enough and settled just off the pace in second as Golden Mystery rattled off fractions of :22.40 and :45.71. In the meantime, heavily favored Turbulent Descent was getting a rough trip. After getting squeezed at the start and checking sharply on the backstretch, she was forced to circle the field four wide to reach contention as the field turned for home. For a brief moment she struck the front, but Musical Romance was right on the inside and came on strongly to win the race in decisive fashion. The final time was 1:23.47. Switch rallied from last on the far outside to occupy the runner-up spot for the second straight year, just nosing out 25-1 shot Her Smile. Pomeroy's Pistol finished further back in fourth. Turbulent Descent tired to fifth, followed by Champagne d'Oro, Golden Mystery, Irish Gypsy, Tanda, Tamarind Hall, Great Hot, and Tar Heel Mom.
-Keelerman
STEPHANIE'S KITTEN WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE FILLIES TURF!
Stephanie's Kitten came on strongly along the fence to wear down Stopshoppingmaria in the final strides to win the $1,000,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II) by a half-length.
Under John Velazquez, Stephanie's Kitten sat reserved well off the pace as Stopshoppingmaria set a slow pace of :24.57 and :50.55. She was being tracked by Sweet Cat in second, with Royal Bonnie three wide in third. The filly turned for home with a clear advantage and appeared to be on her way to victory in deep stretch, but then came Stephanie's Kitten. Rallying furiously along the rail, Velazquez eased her to the outside in deep stretch and got her home just in time to win the race in 1:38.80.
Stopshoppingmaria held second by about a length and a half over Sweet Cat, while Up rallied on the far outside to be fourth. The winner is trained by Wayne Catalano and is owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey. Stephanie's Kitten is a daughter of 2004 Eclipse champion turf male Kitten's Joy.
-Keelerman
Under John Velazquez, Stephanie's Kitten sat reserved well off the pace as Stopshoppingmaria set a slow pace of :24.57 and :50.55. She was being tracked by Sweet Cat in second, with Royal Bonnie three wide in third. The filly turned for home with a clear advantage and appeared to be on her way to victory in deep stretch, but then came Stephanie's Kitten. Rallying furiously along the rail, Velazquez eased her to the outside in deep stretch and got her home just in time to win the race in 1:38.80.
Stopshoppingmaria held second by about a length and a half over Sweet Cat, while Up rallied on the far outside to be fourth. The winner is trained by Wayne Catalano and is owned by Ken and Sarah Ramsey. Stephanie's Kitten is a daughter of 2004 Eclipse champion turf male Kitten's Joy.
-Keelerman
SECRET CIRCLE WINS THE BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE SPRINT!
Secret Circle took the inaugural running of the $500,000 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint this afternoon at Churchill Downs, setting a blazing pace before holding off Shumoos late to win the race by a length.
Under Rafael Bejarano, the undefeated colt, who is trained by Bob Baffert, broke quickly from gate six and sprinted away to contest the early lead with Trinniberg. The pair rocketed through an opening quarter mile in a practically unheard of :20.96 before Secret Circle put his rival away and opened up a clear lead turning for home. But the colt was showing signs of tiring after a half-mile in :44.55 and began to drift outside. In the meantime, the European filly Shumoos was rallying furiously along the inside under Garrett Gomez. But Secret Circle had something left in the tank, and held on to win in 1:10.52. It was a long ways back to third-place finisher Holdin Bullets, while Seeker came home fourth.
-Keelerman
Under Rafael Bejarano, the undefeated colt, who is trained by Bob Baffert, broke quickly from gate six and sprinted away to contest the early lead with Trinniberg. The pair rocketed through an opening quarter mile in a practically unheard of :20.96 before Secret Circle put his rival away and opened up a clear lead turning for home. But the colt was showing signs of tiring after a half-mile in :44.55 and began to drift outside. In the meantime, the European filly Shumoos was rallying furiously along the inside under Garrett Gomez. But Secret Circle had something left in the tank, and held on to win in 1:10.52. It was a long ways back to third-place finisher Holdin Bullets, while Seeker came home fourth.
-Keelerman
Breeders' Cup Friday 2011
3:19 ET - Happy Breeders' Cup Friday everyone! The sun is shining in Louisville where late this afternoon, the first six of fifteen Breeders' Cup races will be run at Churchill Downs.
A bit of rain yesterday and last night has left the main track labeled muddy and the turf course yielding. While the track is clearly drying out, it's hard to say how fast the main track will be in an hour when the Juvenile Sprint is run, and I can't really see the turf course drying out too quickly.
The first three races of the card have been run, with the opener being taken in impressive fashion by the 3-2 favorite Rothko, who was winning his third straight race for trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Julien Leparoux. The second race brought an objection and disqualification, for three-year-old Congo crossed the wire first but was subsequently placed second for interference with Chilled, who was declared the winner. The third race, the grade III $100,000 Ack Ack Handicap, was taken by Mister Marti Gras, who charged furiously in the stretch to win by a neck over Alma d'Oro. Glenwood Canyon rallied for third, while pacesetter Gladding tired to fourth.
There doesn't appear to be anything like a bad or good rail so far today, but perhaps there could be a bit of a bias toward closers? It's really difficult to say, but I was surprised by how easily Gladding gave in after setting a very slow pace of :25.53 and :51.03. We'll have to keep watching the races closely to see if a bias is a possibility.
Further updates will come throughout the day.
3:47 - Well, the track seems to be playing fairly today, as Calvin Borel sent Will's Wildcat to the lead along the rail and held off the challenge of Wine Police to win the Jimmy V. Stakes by two lengths in :56.67. So we've seen horses win at Churchill today be leading along the rail and by closing on the outside.
Of course, if there's a turf bias, we won't know until the Breeders' Cup turf races get underway for there are no turf undercard races.
4:31 - Absolutely no bad rail today. Secret Circle is one spectacular horse, for after running an opening quarter mile in about :21 seconds flat, he still managed to kick clear in the stretch and hold off a late challenge from Shumoos to win by a length. The interesting thing about Shumoos is that she rallied furiously along the rail to finish second. So, thus far today, we have seen horses run huge by sweeping up on the outside or by rallying up the fence. And we've seen them win on the lead. No bias today on the main track.
The next race is the fourteen-horse Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), where I finally decided to pick Dear Lavinia. But I really could see just about any horse take this race.
5:16 - Well, I didn't think Stephanie's Kitten was as good on turf as on Polytrack, but she proved me long today when she rallied furiously in the final sixteenth to catch pacesetting Stopshoppingmaria in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. To be perfectly honest, Stephanie's Kitten may just have earned herself a shot at the Eclipse award for champion two-year-old filly of the Juvenile Fillies goes to a longshot later this afternoon. It's something to think about.
But once again, the European fillies were unable to make a serious impact on the race, with Up finishing the best to be fourth. Disappointing were Elusive Kate and Dear Lavinia, who really didn't show much at all while finishing off the board. Elusive Kate was wide throughout, but still.
Next up is the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I), where Turbulent Descent is currently 9-5 and Switch 7-2. This surprises me a bit, for I would have figured Turbulent Descent to be more like 6-5 or 7-5, but many of the longshots have been bet down, so perhaps many of the bettors feel that this race is ripe for upset.
5:47 - As usual, a huge upset in a Breeders' Cup race. Musical Romance probably shouldn't have been 20-1, for she has been running well all year, but I sure wasn't expecting to see her in the winner's circle for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She can apparently run well over just about anything, for she has big performers over dirt, slop, and synthetic tracks. Poor Switch just can't seem to get lucky. Second in this race a year ago, she didn't get the best of breaks and found herself last early on. Forced to circle the field on the extreme outside, she put in a strong late run but could only finish second yet again, beaten 1 1/2 lengths. Turbulent Descent had an even worse trip, getting squeezed at the start and checking sharply on the backstretch before charging up four-wide to take the lead in the stretch before tiring to finish fifth.
Up next is the Juvenile Fillies, where My Miss Aurelia will take on Weemissfrankie and Grace Hall in a battle for the division championship. My Miss Aurelia and Grace Hall are currently the co-favorited at 3-1, with Weemissfrankie 4-1. Miss Netta has been bet down to 7-1, less than half of her morning line odds of 15-1. This should be a good race.
6:29 - My Miss Aurelia sewed up the two-year-old filly championship with an authorative victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I). She did get a fairly easy trip, tracking a moderate pace two wide, but absolutely blew the race wide open when asked for run turning for home. Grace Hall gave it her best shot, but proved no match while finishing well clear of Weemissfrankie. The latter put in a big run around the turn, but flattened out in the stretch.
The Filly & Mare Turf is next on the card, where Stacelita is currently the 5-2 favorite.
7:31 - Perfect Shirl? Well, she wasn't quite as big a longshot as Shared Account last year, but at 25-1 she is still one of the largest upsets in the history of the Filly & Mare Turf. She gamely held off challenges on both sides to win the biggest race of her career by a half-length, but both Stacelita and Aruna encountered serious traffic trouble and either could have won if they had been luckier. Announce was scratched shortly before the start of the race.
Next up is the final race on the card, the $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), where Royal Delta is currently the 9-5 favorite. Plum Pretty is 3-1.
7:45 - Royal Delta capped off a strong three-year-old season with a decisive victory in the Ladies' Classic under the lights at Churchill Downs, wearing down It's Tricky to win by about two lengths. Plum Pretty looked good turning for home after setting a slow pace, but simply couldn't quicken with the closers and wound up finishing fifth as Pachattack and Ultra Blend came on to complete the superfecta.
It's fairly safe to say that Royal Delta will take home the Eclipse award as Champion 3yo filly, for she beat all of the other contenders for the award in this race. It's Tricky will probably receive some votes off of wins in the Acorn (gr. I), Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I), and runner-up efforts in the Alabama (gr. I) Cotillion (gr. II) and the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, but Royal Delta has beaten her in two of their three meetings and won the big matchup tonight.
Guess it's time to get ready for tomorrow's Breeders' Cup card, where nine more championship races are to be run including the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I). I hope you had fun!
-Keelerman
A bit of rain yesterday and last night has left the main track labeled muddy and the turf course yielding. While the track is clearly drying out, it's hard to say how fast the main track will be in an hour when the Juvenile Sprint is run, and I can't really see the turf course drying out too quickly.
The first three races of the card have been run, with the opener being taken in impressive fashion by the 3-2 favorite Rothko, who was winning his third straight race for trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Julien Leparoux. The second race brought an objection and disqualification, for three-year-old Congo crossed the wire first but was subsequently placed second for interference with Chilled, who was declared the winner. The third race, the grade III $100,000 Ack Ack Handicap, was taken by Mister Marti Gras, who charged furiously in the stretch to win by a neck over Alma d'Oro. Glenwood Canyon rallied for third, while pacesetter Gladding tired to fourth.
There doesn't appear to be anything like a bad or good rail so far today, but perhaps there could be a bit of a bias toward closers? It's really difficult to say, but I was surprised by how easily Gladding gave in after setting a very slow pace of :25.53 and :51.03. We'll have to keep watching the races closely to see if a bias is a possibility.
Further updates will come throughout the day.
3:47 - Well, the track seems to be playing fairly today, as Calvin Borel sent Will's Wildcat to the lead along the rail and held off the challenge of Wine Police to win the Jimmy V. Stakes by two lengths in :56.67. So we've seen horses win at Churchill today be leading along the rail and by closing on the outside.
Of course, if there's a turf bias, we won't know until the Breeders' Cup turf races get underway for there are no turf undercard races.
4:31 - Absolutely no bad rail today. Secret Circle is one spectacular horse, for after running an opening quarter mile in about :21 seconds flat, he still managed to kick clear in the stretch and hold off a late challenge from Shumoos to win by a length. The interesting thing about Shumoos is that she rallied furiously along the rail to finish second. So, thus far today, we have seen horses run huge by sweeping up on the outside or by rallying up the fence. And we've seen them win on the lead. No bias today on the main track.
The next race is the fourteen-horse Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. II), where I finally decided to pick Dear Lavinia. But I really could see just about any horse take this race.
5:16 - Well, I didn't think Stephanie's Kitten was as good on turf as on Polytrack, but she proved me long today when she rallied furiously in the final sixteenth to catch pacesetting Stopshoppingmaria in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. To be perfectly honest, Stephanie's Kitten may just have earned herself a shot at the Eclipse award for champion two-year-old filly of the Juvenile Fillies goes to a longshot later this afternoon. It's something to think about.
But once again, the European fillies were unable to make a serious impact on the race, with Up finishing the best to be fourth. Disappointing were Elusive Kate and Dear Lavinia, who really didn't show much at all while finishing off the board. Elusive Kate was wide throughout, but still.
Next up is the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. I), where Turbulent Descent is currently 9-5 and Switch 7-2. This surprises me a bit, for I would have figured Turbulent Descent to be more like 6-5 or 7-5, but many of the longshots have been bet down, so perhaps many of the bettors feel that this race is ripe for upset.
5:47 - As usual, a huge upset in a Breeders' Cup race. Musical Romance probably shouldn't have been 20-1, for she has been running well all year, but I sure wasn't expecting to see her in the winner's circle for the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. She can apparently run well over just about anything, for she has big performers over dirt, slop, and synthetic tracks. Poor Switch just can't seem to get lucky. Second in this race a year ago, she didn't get the best of breaks and found herself last early on. Forced to circle the field on the extreme outside, she put in a strong late run but could only finish second yet again, beaten 1 1/2 lengths. Turbulent Descent had an even worse trip, getting squeezed at the start and checking sharply on the backstretch before charging up four-wide to take the lead in the stretch before tiring to finish fifth.
Up next is the Juvenile Fillies, where My Miss Aurelia will take on Weemissfrankie and Grace Hall in a battle for the division championship. My Miss Aurelia and Grace Hall are currently the co-favorited at 3-1, with Weemissfrankie 4-1. Miss Netta has been bet down to 7-1, less than half of her morning line odds of 15-1. This should be a good race.
6:29 - My Miss Aurelia sewed up the two-year-old filly championship with an authorative victory in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I). She did get a fairly easy trip, tracking a moderate pace two wide, but absolutely blew the race wide open when asked for run turning for home. Grace Hall gave it her best shot, but proved no match while finishing well clear of Weemissfrankie. The latter put in a big run around the turn, but flattened out in the stretch.
The Filly & Mare Turf is next on the card, where Stacelita is currently the 5-2 favorite.
7:31 - Perfect Shirl? Well, she wasn't quite as big a longshot as Shared Account last year, but at 25-1 she is still one of the largest upsets in the history of the Filly & Mare Turf. She gamely held off challenges on both sides to win the biggest race of her career by a half-length, but both Stacelita and Aruna encountered serious traffic trouble and either could have won if they had been luckier. Announce was scratched shortly before the start of the race.
Next up is the final race on the card, the $2,000,000 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), where Royal Delta is currently the 9-5 favorite. Plum Pretty is 3-1.
7:45 - Royal Delta capped off a strong three-year-old season with a decisive victory in the Ladies' Classic under the lights at Churchill Downs, wearing down It's Tricky to win by about two lengths. Plum Pretty looked good turning for home after setting a slow pace, but simply couldn't quicken with the closers and wound up finishing fifth as Pachattack and Ultra Blend came on to complete the superfecta.
It's fairly safe to say that Royal Delta will take home the Eclipse award as Champion 3yo filly, for she beat all of the other contenders for the award in this race. It's Tricky will probably receive some votes off of wins in the Acorn (gr. I), Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I), and runner-up efforts in the Alabama (gr. I) Cotillion (gr. II) and the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic, but Royal Delta has beaten her in two of their three meetings and won the big matchup tonight.
Guess it's time to get ready for tomorrow's Breeders' Cup card, where nine more championship races are to be run including the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I). I hope you had fun!
-Keelerman
Thursday, November 03, 2011
2011 BREEDERS' CUP FRIDAY SELECTIONS
Here are my picks (as well as J.R.'s) for Friday's Breeders' Cup races. Enjoy!
JUVENILE SPRINT
It's hard to look past Baffert's SECRET CIRCLE, for the undefeated juvenile has won both of his starts in impressive fashion with speed figures quite superior to those of his rivals. From gate six, he should be able to work out a terrific trip and I don't expect to see him get beat. HOLDIN BULLETS broke his maiden for Wesley Ward in April and hasn't raced since, but Ward is good with juveniles and should have his colt ready to race. SHUMOOS is a group III winner in Europe, but the filly will be making her debut on dirt and would be a bit of a surprise. Look for JAKE MO and BLACKY THE BULL to be coming late, while TRINNIBERG tries to hang on late.
Keelerman
1. Secret Circle
2. Holdin Bullets
3. Shumoos
4. Trinniberg
J.R.
1. Blacky the Bull
2. Secret Circle
3. Shumoos
4. Jake Mo
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF
To me, this is one of the most indecipherable races of the entire Breeders' Cup. That said, I like several fillies here including DEAR LAVINIA and STOPSHOPPINGMARIA. The former is a European filly who has shown promising form and seems like a filly that could shock the world at huge odds. STOPSHOPPINGMARIA has proven herself a capable competitor on dirt, but will be trying turf for the first time here. Nevertheless, the progeny of her sire More Than Ready seem to excel on the grass and she has been training well over it. ELUSIVE KATE, another European shipper, has won four straight including a group I. I would not be surprised at all if she wins, but I prefer Dear Lavinia among the Euros. Up, from Aidan O'Brien's barn, could be any kind. She was also pre-entered in the Juvenile Fillies on dirt, so I have the suspicion that this one may be something special. SOMALI LEMONADE has been impressive so far, but must overcome starting from gate fourteen. DAYATTHESPA, STEPHANIE'S KITTEN, SWEET CAT, HARD NOT TO LIKE, PURE GOSSIP, and CUSTOMER BASE all look tough too.
I could go either way on the top two, but that said --
Keelerman
1. Dear Lavinia
2. Stopshoppingmaria
3. Customer Base
4. Somali Lemonade
J.R.
1. Up
2. Somali Lemonade
3. Pure Gossip
4. Sweet Cat
FILLY & MARE SPRINT
On the surface, two fillies seemingly stand out. They are TURBULENT DESCENT, the 6-5 morning line favorite, and SWITCH, 3-1 second choice and runner-up in this race last year. TURBULENT DESCENT is a monster around one turn, with a dominating victory three months ago in the Test Stakes (gr. I) to prove it. She is even talented enough to have won a pair of grade I’s going two turns. However, that Test Stakes was her final prep race for this, and while that has been the plan all along, I do worry about her facing her elders for the first time off of a three-month layoff. SWITCH has not won a race since January, but perhaps that is because she has been busy finishing second to the likes of Havre de Grace and Blind Luck. A monster at seven furlongs during the winter, she tuned up for this race with a narrow loss in the TCA Stakes and may be good enough to catch Turbulent Descent late. CHAMPAGNE D'ORO is my huge longshot to hit the board, for she ran a much-improved race last time out in the Lady's Secret Stakes (gr. I) following throat surgery and is cutting back to her favorite distance. POMEROYS PISTOL could be a contender for the win, but I can't really see her getting a good trip from gate twelve.
Keelerman
1. Switch
2. Turbulent Descent
3. Champagne d'Oro
4. Great Hot
J.R.
1. Champagne d'Oro
2. Switch
3. Tamarind Hall
4. Turbulent Descent
(J.R. is also aware of the throat surgery on Champagne d'Oro -- however, he is bold enough to pick her to win whereas I only put her third. :) )
JUVENILE FILLIES
MY MISS AURELIA is the one to beat based off of her dominating victory in the Frizette (gr. I), but if you believe there are chinks in her armor there are plenty of other fillies to pick. WEEMISSFRANKIE is 3-for-3 in California, including a victory in the Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I), and should be flying from off the pace in the stretch. GRACE HALL won the seven-furlong Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) and subsequently proved herself around two turns in the Blue Hen Stakes. QUESTING and HOMECOMING QUEEN invade from Europe and most prove themselves on dirt. MISS NETTA broke terribly in the Frizette and dropped way, way behind, but still managed to come on for third. This race could go to any number of these fillies, and I've gone back and forth many times, but I'm going to take the favorite in MY MISS AURELIA and hope she can carry her one-turn form around two-turns.
Keelerman
1. My Miss Aurelia
2. Grace Hall
3. Miss Netta
4. Weemissfrankie
J.R.
1. Grace Hall
2. Miss Netta
3. My Miss Aurelia
4. Northern Passion
FILLY & MARE TURF
While this race could also be a wide-open affair, I do believe that STACELITA is the one to beat. A four-time group I winner in Europe, she has subsequently turned into the finest turf mare in the United States, with victories in the Beverly D. and Flower Bowl Stakes (both grade I) and a strong third in the United Nations (gr. I) against males. She has been dealing with a bit of an eye problem, but is training beautifully and will be very tough to beat. That said, it is worth noting that she was beaten in Europe this year by ANNOUNCE, who has shipped in from France to try and take down this prize. She has been competing against some of the very best in Europe, including Sarafina and Cirrus des Aigles, and may give Stacelita all she can handle. NAHRAIN, another European, is undefeated in four starts including a nose victory over Announce last time out in a group I, but could a mile and three-eighths be just a bit too far for her? SHARED ACCOUNT won this race last year and enters this year's edition in sneaky good form. DUBAWI HEIGHTS has won five of her last six, including two grade I’s, but was no match for STACELITA in the Beverly D. and may be going too far here. CAMBINA always puts in some sort of furious late rally -- she's been known to close her final eighth in :10 and change -- but seems to always be coming too late. Could the added distance here help her chances of pulling a tremendous upset? Don't count her out!
Keelerman
1. Announce
2. Stacelita
3. Shared Account
4. Cambina
J.R.
1. Stacelita
2. Announce
3. Aruna
4. Nahrain
LADIES' CLASSIC
This race should decide the Eclipse award for champion three-year-old filly. Morning line favorite PLUM PRETTY won the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) here in the spring, and dominated in the Cotillion Stakes (gr. II) last time out, but I feel her last race was bias-aided and that she could be vulnerable in here with pace pressure. ROYAL DELTA destroyed Plum Pretty going ten furlongs in the Alabama Stakes (gr. I) and subsequently finished a distant second to Breeders' Cup Classic contender Havre de Grace in the Beldame Stakes (gr. I) -- by no means a bad effort! She has been training very well and I believe that she is capable of beating the morning line favorite. IT'S TRICKY has beaten both of the above-mentioned fillies this year -- but has also been beaten by both of them. Her last couple of races haven't been terrific, but she could very well rebound with a strong effort here and should not be counted out. MISS MATCH finished fourth in the Goodwood Stakes (gr. I) against males and could be a live longshot, but would likely need a blazing pace in order to win. ULTRA BLEND is ultra-consistent, but may be better at slightly shorter distances.
Keelerman
1. Royal Delta
2. Plum Pretty
3. Ultra Blend
4. It's Tricky
J.R.
1. Ultra Blend
2. Royal Delta
3. It's Tricky
4. Plum Pretty
Enjoy the first day of the most magnificent racing in the country! Who do you like in these races?
-Keelerman
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