It never fails. When you run fifteen top-class championship races over the course of two days, many with a dozen or more horses, you are bound to see some monumental upsets. Detecting which longshots are likely to win before they blow your trifectas to smithereens is not an easy task, but I have compiled a list of five longshots that I feel could make an impact on Breeders' Cup Friday. They are:
Commander and Juniper Pass (Marathon)
It's hard to believe that a colt riding a six-race winning streak could be a longshot in the Marathon, but thanks to the presence of Fame and Glory, Eldaafer, and Worth Repeating, that might just be the case. The speedy front-runner has never run anywhere near fourteen furlongs before, but in his last race, he showed true grit to hang on for the victory. Traversing eleven furlongs in the BC Premier's Handicap (gr. III), he was beaten to the lead by Northern Causeway and forced to chase after him through breathtaking fractions of :23.84 and :46.50 -- and after analyzing the chart of the race, one discovers that Commander ran his second quarter in a spectacular :22.46. He continued to duel through three-quarters of a mile in 1:11.53, after which he was confronted by the talented Jebrica, who had been sitting well off of the speed duel in third. Jebrica seemd to have the necessary momentum to blow past Commander and win the race, but the latter horse proved exceptionally game, and held on to win by a head.
Can he stretch out another three furlongs on Friday? Well, that's hard to say. But I do believe he holds a substantial edge over his rivals in terms of early speed, and if the track is favoring front-runners, then there may be no one capable of catching him.
Another horse to consider is Juniper Pass, who has a ton of back class. Although the majority of his success has come on turf, he has run well on dirt in his last two starts, and he did win the San Juan Capistrano Invitational Handicap (gr. II) back in 2011 at the same fourteen furlong distance of the Marathon. So at least we know he can handle the extreme distance.
Super Ninety Nine (Juvenile Sprint)
This Bob Baffert-trainee has only run once, breaking his maiden by 1 1/4 lengths going seven furlongs at Santa Anita. He certainly doesn't have the flashy credentials of race favorites Beholder, Kauai Katie, and Merit Man, but he is certainly eligible to improve in his second start, and he might enjoy the cut back to six furlongs. In addition, he has been training well -- earlier this morning, he went five furlongs in a sharp :59.40. He could be especially dangerous if Beholder and/or Kauai Katie scratch in favor of the Juvenile Fillies.
Lady of Shamrock (Filly and Mare Turf)
This two-time grade I winning three-year-old filly has not run since winning the Del Mar Oaks (gr. I) in mid-August -- she missed the Rodeo Drive Stakes (gr. I) with a minor setback -- but the daughter of Scat Daddy should not be counted out of consideration. After all, she is proven at this ten-furlong distance, and she possesses a truly stunning turn-of-foot. In the American Oaks (gr. I), she ran her final quarter mile in around :23 seconds flat to win by 1 1/4 lengths, and she was even quicker in the Del Mar Oaks (gr. I). Obviously, she's got her work cut out for her taking on the likes of The Fugue, Ridasiyna, Marketing Mix, and Nahrain, but I think she'll be up to the challenge.
Include Me Out (Ladies' Classic)
It's hard to believe that a two-time grade I winner is going to be a longshot in a Breeders' Cup race, but that marks the depth of this year's Ladies' Classic. While it's certainly true that Include Me Out did not perform to expectations in the Zenyatta Stakes (gr. I), where she finished third behind fellow Ladies' Classic contender Love and Pride, it is also true that she had an excuse that day. The Santa Anita maintrack had been very speed-favoring, and when Love and Pride bounded out of the starting gate and took command of the lead, the race was over right there. I thought that Include Me Out actually ran pretty well to finish third.
Of course, the possibility exists that a speed bias could emerge again, and if that is the case, than Include Me Out's chances will all but evaporate. But if the track is fair, then Include Me Out should be putting in a good run at the finish.
-Keelerman
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