As has become the norm in recent years, Horse of the Year is still thoroughly unsettled heading into the Breeders' Cup. Thus, the Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) will once again be taking on a level of importance beyond the obvious prestige of winning North America's richest horse race, for it will likely prove key in determining the 2012 Horse of the Year. It's fairly simple -- if you had a good enough season prior to winning the Classic, like Curlin did in 2007, you'll probably get the award. But if the rest of your season was only so-so, like Drosselmeyer last year, you will probably get shut out in favor of a Classic also-ran with better overall credentials, such as Havre de Grace.
I feel that a number of horses could sew up Horse of the Year with a victory in the Classic, the most obvious being Game On Dude. Winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I), Awesome Again Stakes (gr. II), and a pair of grade IIs this year, the five-year-old gelding would be a practically unanimous choice as champion of the year if he can add the Classic to his stellar record.
Ron the Greek is in the same boat. Having won the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) and Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I) this season, a victory in the Classic would almost undoubtedly earn him the year-end honor.
Even Dullahan would have a shot if makes his way to the winner's circle on Breeders' Cup day. Having previously won the Pacific Classic (gr. I) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), the Classic would give him an eye-catching record that is not to be overlooked. However, his losses in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), Belmont Stakes (gr. I), Haskell Invitational (gr. I), and Jamaica Handicap (gr. I) -- the latter three being bad defeats -- could make things interesting, especially with fellow sophomore I'll Have Another having won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes (gr. I), Santa Anita Derby (gr. I), and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) before heading to the sidelines with an injury.
To Honor and Serve, Flat Out, Fort Larned, and Mucho Macho Man could all secure the Eclipse award as champion older male with a victory in the Classic, but I'll Have Another's credentials do seem a bit flashier, and in the end, I feel the golden Eclipse award would end up being given to the sophomore.
Now suppose something really odd happens in the Classic -- suppose a huge longshot like Brilliant Speed takes home the glory, with Game On Dude and Ron the Greek finishing off-the-board. In this instance, the results of the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic (gr. I), Turf (gr. I), or Mile (gr. I) could make things very interesting.
Let's look first at the Ladies' Classic. Of the seven fillies and mares expected to contest the race, any one of them could earn the Eclipse award as champion older mare or three-year-old filly, depending upon the victor's age. But could any of them pick up Horse of the Year? Well, the 2012 records of Awesome Feather, Grace Hall, Include Me Out, Love and Pride, and My Miss Aurelia aren't really sufficient to claim racing's biggest award. But Questing and Royal Delta are possibilities. The first-mentioned filly won both the Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I) and Alabama Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga before losing the Cotillion Stakes (gr. I) by a nose. A dominating victory in the Ladies' Classic might be enough to secure Horse of the Year.
Royal Delta has only won one grade I race this year, that being the Beldame Invitational (gr. I) at Belmont Park, but she also won the Delaware Handicap (gr. II) and Fleur de Lis Stakes (gr. II). A victory in the Ladies' Classic could put her in the conversation for Horse of the Year, but even if she did garner more votes than Game On Dude and Ron the Greek, topping I'll Have Another would be a bit of a challenge.
Of course, should the connections of Royal Delta have a change of heart and run her in the Classic, than she would be in charge of her own fate. Victory in that race would almost certainly secure Horse of the Year, and make her the fourth straight filly or mare to earn the award.
In the Breeders' Cup Mile, Wise Dan could stamp his credentials for Horse of the Year if he dominates again. Having already won the Woodbine Mile (gr. I), Shadwell Turf Mile (gr. I), Fourstardave Handicap (gr. II), and Ben Ali Stakes (gr. II) -- in addition to being beaten a head in the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I) -- a Breeders' Cup Mile would give him a very, very strong record indeed.
Also in the mix for year-end honors is Point of Entry, winner of the Man o' War Stakes (gr. I), Sword Dancer Invitational Stakes (gr. I), Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational Stakes (gr. I), and Elkhorn Stakes (gr. II). Should he emerge victorious from the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I), his record would include four grade I wins for the year, more than any other horse.
Now, having gone to all the trouble to outline all these possibly scenarios, you just watch -- Brilliant Speed will romp in the Classic while Richard's Kid and Pool Play round out the trifecta. Then, Class Included will win the Ladies' Classic in gate-to-wire fashion, and Wise Dan and Point of Entry will both run last in their respective races. Then Horse of the Year will be a great big mess once again!
If this unlikely scenario comes to fruition, we might as well give the award to Frankel. :)
-Keelerman
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