Nearctic Stakes
(gr. I)
The morning line
favorite is the local hero Big Band Sound, who won the Play the King
Stakes (gr. II) two starts back in brilliant fashion over the Woodbine turf.
Overall, he's been very consistent this year, winning or placing in six of his
eight starts, but six furlongs may be a tad short for him.
If that is the
case, than look for Fire Lily to take advantage of the situation. A very
talented Irish-bred three-year-old filly, she finished second in a pair of
group I races as a juvenile and has been very competitive in group III races this
year. In fact, three starts back, she beat subsequent Prix de la Foret (Fr-I)
winner and Betfred Sprint Cup (Eng-I) runner-up Gordon Lord Byron by a
half-length in the Patrick O'Leary Memorial Phoenix Sprint (Ire-III). Given this
record, one has to like her chances later this afternoon, although the fact
that she has drawn post eleven is a serious concern.
The other European
shipper, Night Carnation, is also mildly intriguing, but the filly has
not won a stakes race of any kind since taking the group III Coral Charge
Sprint Stakes in July 2011. With John Velazquez in the saddle, you can't count
her out, but she probably isn't quite as good as Fire Lily.
Bear Tough Tiger has won two of his last three starts in excellent fashion,
but is taking a sizable step up in class and will have to overcome breaking
from the rail. But at least that is better than drawing gate eleven. I envision
him showing speed from the start, setting the pace, and hopefully holding off
the closers late.
Selection: Bear
Tough Tiger
E.P. Taylor Stakes
(gr. I)
It's hard to look
past morning line favorite Siyouma, for the Irish-bred filly is coming
off of a strong victory in the Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Eng-I)
over the very talented Elusive Kate. True, that race was only a mile, but her
form at ten furlongs is decent enough to suggest that her class can help her
successfully stretch out in distance.
Her main
competition will probably come from Dream Peace, who has placed in both
the Diana Stakes (gr. I) and Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes (gr. I) this
summer. She is coming back a bit quick off of her last effort -- with just two
weeks rest -- but ten furlongs should be just about perfect for her, and the
long Woodbine homestretch should help her late rally.
Barefoot Lady won the Canadian Stakes (gr. II) here at Woodbine in good
fashion last month, but is facing tougher today and will have to step up. The
same goes for the other European shippers -- Pagera, Trois Lunes, Princess
Highway, and Havant -- most of which have shown good form in lower
level group races and could contend with career-best efforts.
Selection: Siyouma
Pattison Canadian
International (gr. I)
Going over the past
performances, it's hard to look past the European shippers, led by morning line
favorite Imperial Monarch. From the powerful barn of Aidan O'Brien, the
three-year-old colt has won three of his four starts, including the Juddmonte
Grand Prix de Paris (Fr-I). He's proven at this distance and over soft turf,
but he hasn't run since mid-July. Will he be fit enough to defeat a field of
this caliber off of such a lengthy layoff?
If he's not quite
up to the challenge, than Reliable Man can pull off a mild upset.
Trained by Alain De Royer-Dupre, the talented colt has not won a race in over a
year, but he has been running against some of the best horses in Europe,
including Danedream, Nathaniel, St. Nicholas Abbey, So You Think, Farhh, Golden
Lilac, and Cirrus des Aigles. And given how he has held his own against many of
this, one has to view him as a serious contender for the win. Plus, he will
have the services of top jockey Olivier Peslier.
Joshua Tree won this race two years ago and finished a strong second
last year, signaling that he is quite found of the Woodbine course. Last time
out, he finished a strong third to subsequent Arc de Triomphe runner-up Orfevre
in the Qatar Prix Foy (Fr-II), proving that he has retained his good form.
Frankie Dettori has the mount.
Wigmore Hall has won the Northern Dancer Stakes (gr. I) here at
Woodbine two years in a row, but has never been better than a group II/III type
in Europe, so beating the likes of Reliable Man and Imperial Monarch could be
difficult. However, like Joshua Tree, he has shown an affinity for the course,
so counting him out could prove a mistake.
Air Support looks like the best of the North American hopefuls, as
he can unleash a strong late kick on occasion and has run well at the grade I
level, but the turf course may turn up a bit soft for him today. A good pace to
run at would greatly help his chances, but time will tell if he gets one.
Let me also take a
moment to mention Prince Will I Am, winner of the grade I Jamaica
Handicap in 2010. His last two efforts haven't been particularly noteworthy,
but he does seem to be rounding back into his 2010 form, and twelve furlongs on
turf seems to suit him well. Perhaps the long Woodbine homestretch will help
him rally for a piece.
Selection: Reliable
Man
-Keelerman
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