Following up on my earlier post, here are five longshots to consider in Saturday's Breeders' Cup races:
Fast Bullet (Sprint)
Most of the attention in this race is going to be focused on defending winner Amazombie, Vosburgh winner The Lumber Guy, and Bob Baffert's talented graded stakes winners Coil and Capital Account. But Baffert has a third horse in this race that merits attention too, that being Fast Bullet. True, the son of Speightstown has not raced since last November, and has only run in two races, but those two victories were truly exceptional. In his debut, he posted a Beyer of 92 while winning a six-furlong maiden special weight by 6 1/4 lengths in 1:08.59, this after running the opening quarter in :21.84. He then backed up that effort with a 3 3/4-length victory in a six-furlong allowance race, stopping the clock in 1:09.23 to earn a Beyer of 102. More importantly, he showed the ability to rate that day, making him a very versatile and intriguing contender in this spot.
Nonios (Dirt Mile)
With Shackleford, Emcee, and Jersey Town drawing all the headlines, it can be easy to forget about a colt like Nonios -- but that, I feel, is a mistake. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, this colt has run huge in pair of grade I races this year, chasing home Paynter in the Haskell Invitational and Game On Dude in the Awesome Again Stakes here at Santa Anita. Throw out his unusual poor showing in the Travers, and you have yourself a colt that has very quietly compiled an impressive record this year.
But his talent aside, the main reason I like him here is because the race is two-turns. Take a look at the favorites -- Emcee is unproven around two turns, Jersey Town's biggest success has come at one turn, and Shackleford has not run well around two turns since the 2011 Haskell. Thus, it seems that all three of the favorites could find the two turns of the Dirt Mile to be one turn too many -- whereas Nonios should relish the conditions.
Trailblazer and Slim Shadey (Turf)
As usual, the Breeders' Cup Turf has drawn a number of talented European shippers, and given that they have won the last four runnings of this race -- and six of the last seven -- you have to respect their chances for another victory.
But in this instance, it could be a colt from the Far East that pulls off a mild upset. Trailblazer is a Japanese-bred colt that has raced almost exclusively in his home country, where he was good enough to finish fourth in last year's Japan Cup. His lone start outside of Japan came in his most recent race, when he tried out the Santa Anita turf course in the Arroyo Seco Mile Stakes (gr. II). Racing at a distance much too short for him, he had the misfortune to encounter a freak horse named Obviously, who recorded a 1:31.95 clocking to win the race in gate-to-wire fashion. But despite those obstacles, Trailblazer was closing fast at the finish, and ended up losing by just a half-length. Stretching back out in distance, and having proven himself over the course, you might want to consider Trailblazer as an upset possibility.
Another colt to think about is Slim Shadey, a speedy four-year-old from the barn of Simon Callaghan. Last time out, Slim Shadey showed tremendous speed while opening up an eight-length advantage in the John Henry Turf Championship Stakes (gr. II) and stayed on strongly to the finish to win by 2 1/4 lengths. True, that race was only ten furlongs, and this one is twelve. But I can't help but think back to how Presious Passion employed similar tactics in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Turf and wound up finishing second, ahead of everyone save the exceptional stayer Conduit. With the unique downhill turf course working to Slim Shadey's advantage, the gelded son of Val Royal should be able to open up a commanding lead early on -- and from there, they'll have to catch him to beat him.
Brilliant Speed (Classic)
Ever since the announcement was made that Brilliant Speed would conclude his career in the Breeders' Cup Classic, I have slowly but surely been able to talk myself into thinking that this colt has a real and strong chance at winning the race.
Granted, he has not run particularly well this year, with his best effort being a third-place finish in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I) back in May. And granted, his last effort was not very impressive at all.
However, let's look at some of the positives. He does have some back-class on dirt, having finished third in the 2011 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) and a close seventh in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I). Furthermore, ten furlongs does seem to be his optimum distance. The pace scenario should also suit him -- with Game On Dude, Fort Larned, Mucho Macho Man, To Honor and Serve, and Handsome Mike all having a great deal of tactical speed, the pace should be quick enough to set up his late run. He will also be adding blinkers, which should sharpen him up and help get him more involved in the early stages of the race. And, according to DRF.com, he has been training exceptionally well.
Now, I'm not saying that Brilliant Speed is going to win -- defeating Game On Dude at his home track will not be an easy task for anyone. But I certainly won't be tossing him from consideration, as I do believe that he will be coming on strongly at the finish.
-Keelerman
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