In a recent blog post for Bloodhorse.com, I considered the question of whether or not Kentucky Derby preps in January have much of an impact on the Derby itself. The results were slightly inconclusive, although my research did reveal that no Derby winner since Barbaro in 2006 has won a graded stakes race during the January of their three-year-old season.
In researching the post, I also uncovered another interesting statistic: Of the last twenty Derby winners, only one -- Smarty Jones in 2004 -- ran in more than three races during the lead up to the Derby. Smarty Jones actual had four prep races, starting off in the Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct on January 3rd before sweeping to victories in the Southwest Stakes, Rebel Stakes, and Arkansas Derby (gr. II) prior to the Run for the Roses.
Also, who was the last Derby winner to prep exclusively at Aqueduct, a feat being attempted by recent Jerome Stakes (gr. III) winner El Kabeir? The answer, believe it or not, is Secretariat, who won the Bay Shore Stakes (gr. III), Gotham Stakes (gr. II), and placed third in the Wood Memorial (gr. I) in preparation for his record-breaking Triple Crown triumph. Thus, if El Kabeir is to win the Kentucky Derby, he will have to overcome forty-one years of history. An imposing task? Certainly, but as they say, records are made to be broken!
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