1. Dortmund (Big Brown - Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
He's breezed once since winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (gr. I), going a half-mile in :48 3/5 on January 4th at Santa Anita Park. Time will tell when and where he runs next, but at this stage, the February 7th Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita seems like a logical target.
2. American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile - Littleprincessmma, by Yankee Gentleman) Trained by Bob Baffert
He has not yet returned to the work tab, but still has plenty of time to resume serious training and get ready for the Derby. Expect to see him return to the races in March -- perhaps in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) -- and have two preps before the Run for the Roses.
3. Texas Red (Afleet Alex - Ramatuelle, by Jeune Homme) Trained by Keith Desormeaux
His recent workouts have been steadily increasing in distance, and his breeze on January 10th -- six furlongs in 1:17 4/5 at Santa Anita -- was the longest yet. Unlike Amercan Pharoah, who fell behind schedule with his hoof injury before the Breeders' Cup, Texas Red seems to be getting geared up for his three-year-old debut and should be ready to run by February.
4. Eagle (Candy Ride - Sea Gull, by Mineshaft) Trained by Neil Howard
Completed his serious preparations for the January 17th LeComte Stakes (gr. III) by breezing four furlongs in :49 2/5 at Fair Grounds earlier today. One can make a case that he was the best horse in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last November, and considering his strong pedigree, affinity for Churchill, and late-running style, I think he will be a major player in the Kentucky Derby prep races. Winning on Saturday isn't all that important -- as long as he closes strongly to be in the mix at the finish, I will be satisfied.
5. Calculator (In Summation - Back to Basics, by Alphabet Soup) Trained by Peter Miller
Given that he missed two races due to injury and illness, and given that he wasn't 100% cranked for the race, Calculator could not have been much more impressive winning the Sham Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita on January 10th. After racing wide every step of the way while chasing quick fractions, Calculator unleashed an eye-catching run around the turn to take command, then drew off through an exceptional final quarter in :24.45 to win by 4 1/4 lengths. That was a very serious performance from a very serious colt, and I have the feeling we are going to hear a lot from Calculator during the next couple of months.
6. Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro - Cocoa Beach, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
His workout pattern since the Breeders' Cup has been a bit inconsistent -- he breezed at Palm Meadows on November 14th and November 21st, then disappeared from the work tab for more than a month before breezing a half-mile in :50 3/5 on December 31st. Since then, he hasn't been heard from, which is slightly concerning. But hopefully, he will post another workout soon.
7. Firing Line (Line of David - Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) Trained by Simon Callaghan
When I first started writing this blog, Line of David had not yet won a race, and now he is the sire of a promising Derby candidate. How time flies! On January 10th, Firing Line posted his first workout since finishing second in the Los Alamitos Futurity, breezing a half-mile in :48 flat at Santa Anita. Like Dortmund, he seems to be progressing toward a start in early February, and it wouldn't be surprising if they meet up again in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes.
8. Frosted (Tapit - Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Breezed a bullet five furlongs on January 9th at Palm Meadows Training Center, getting the distance in a quick 1:00.95 seconds. Well-bred colt is a stablemate to Imperia (both are owned by Godolphin and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin), and since both colts are wintering in Florida, it will be interesting to see if/how McLaughlin splits them up during the prep season.
9. Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway - Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Todd Pletcher
For those who like dosage, this colt has a powerful profile of 4-6-24-0-0, with a Dosage Index of 1.83 and a +0.41 Center of Distribution. With a pedigree like that, there's little doubt that ten furlongs is within his capabilities, and this -- coupled with the brilliance he has displayed thus far -- makes him a very exciting prospect for the Kentucky Derby.
10. Bold Conquest (Curlin - One for Jim, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Steve Asmussen
He returned to the work tab on January 6th, breezing a half-mile in :52 3/5 at Fair Grounds. As a son of Curlin, he should only get better with more time and distance. He is expected to return to the races in late February or early March.
11. Upstart (Flatter - Party Silks, by Touch Gold) Trained by Richard Violette, Jr.
There's a chance that he will run on January 24th in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) at Gulfstream Park, where he would get a chance to pick up a few more Kentucky Derby qualification points against a field that doesn't seem to be shaping up very tough. There doesn't seem to be a lot of talk about this colt, but he quietly compiled a very strong record as a juvenile, and I'm looking forward to seeing how he progresses in 2015.
12. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy - Great Venue, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by John Terranova, II
His pedigree is an interesting one, for while sire Scat Daddy won at nine furlongs and has sired horses that have been successful at that distance, El Kabeir's overall pedigree -- and also his racing performances -- suggest that ten furlongs may be a bit beyond his best distance. The Withers Stakes (gr. III) should tell us more about any potential distance limitations.
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