1. Dortmund (Big Brown - Our Josephina, by Tale of the Cat) Trained by Bob Baffert
This very promising Baffert-trained colt is unbeaten in three starts thus far, including a gritty victory despite a wide trip in the Los Alamitos Futurity (gr. I) on December 20th. He's not the most explosive colt, but he does possess a steady finishing kick and figures to get better with more distance.
2. American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile - Littleprincessmma, by Yankee Gentleman) Trained by Bob Baffert
Brilliant colt swept to victories in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) before missing the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) with a minor injury. A finalist for the Eclipse award as champion two-year-old colt, American Pharoah is back in training and expected to return to the work tab soon.
3. Texas Red (Afleet Alex - Ramatuelle, by Jeune Homme) Trained by Keith Desormeaux
He unleashed a breathtaking performance to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by daylight, and while he did take advantage of an ideal pace setup to win as impressively as he did, his performance was still a very promising step in the right direction. With a strong pedigree and a come-from-behind running style, he seems ideally suited to take advantage of the typical fast pace in the Kentucky Derby.
4. Eagle (Candy Ride - Sea Gull, by Mineshaft) Trained by Neil Howard
He ran a huge race in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II), rallying to finish a close third despite encountering traffic at a key point on the far turn. His affinity for Churchill Downs and late-running style suggest that he will relish the conditions of the Kentucky Derby, and we'll get a chance to see if he is improving when he runs in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds on January 17th.
5. Imperia (Medaglia d'Oro - Cocoa Beach, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Well-bred Godolphin colt won the Pilgrim Stakes (gr. III) in impressive fashion on the turf at Belmont, and after finishing a troubled tenth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I), he gave dirt a try in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and failed by just a head to run down front-running El Kabeir. Given his pedigree, Imperia should have little trouble with the distance of the Derby, and figures to be a serious contender in the major Florida prep races this winter.
6. Firing Line (Line of David - Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) Trained by Simon Callaghan
Lightly-raced runner did everything but finish first in the Los Alamitos Futurity, running a huge race in his first start around two turns to be beaten just a nose. If not for the fact that he was bumped in the homestretch by third-place finisher Mr. Z, he might have even won. With that race under his belt, he is eligible to run even better next time, and I'm looking forward to seeing how he progresses this winter.
7. Frosted (Tapit - Fast Cookie, by Deputy Minister) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Although he was narrowly beaten in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II), one can make a strong case that Frosted ran best that day, for not only did he endure a wide trip, he did so on a day when the rail was by far the best part of the racetrack. Even still, Frosted was beaten just a half-length while finishing eight lengths clear of the third-place horse. He has posted a pair of four-furlong workouts at Palm Meadows since the Remsen and should be back to the races before long.
8. Carpe Diem (Giant's Causeway - Rebridled Dreams, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Todd Pletcher's most accomplished two-year-old of 2014 turned in a breathtaking performance when romping to victory in the Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) at Keeneland, then rallied to finish second behind Texas Red in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Unlike many of Pletcher's top Derby contenders through the years, Carpe Diem has had success racing off the lead, closing from fourth-place in the Breeders' Futurity and from tenth-place in the Juvenile. He has yet to return to the work tab since the Breeders' Cup, but having already secured fourteen Kentucky Derby qualification points, I doubt his connections will bring him back to the races before late February or March.
9. Bold Conquest (Curlin - One for Jim, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Steve Asmussen
This son of Curlin made a good impression during his juvenile season, breaking his maiden in courageous fashion before stepping up to stakes company and finishing second by a head in the Iroquois Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs. In that race, Bold Conquest was probably the best horse, as he endured a wide trip and just failed to catch stablemate Lucky Player, who saved ground throughout. In his most recent start, Bold Conquest ran into traffic trouble when coming home a distant third in the Breeders' Futurity, and might have finished closer with a better trip. He is currently in training at Fair Grounds and looks poised to have a big season.
10. Upstart (Flatter - Party Silks, by Touch Gold) Trained by Richard Violette, Jr.
This New York-bred colt has done nothing wrong in four starts, winning the Funny Cide Stakes at Saratoga before placing second in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) and third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He has breezed three times since the Juvenile, most recently going a half-mile in :49.10 at Palm Meadows Training Center, and should be back to the races within a month or so.
11. El Kabeir (Scat Daddy - Great Venue, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by John Terranova, II
He just barely held on to win the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last November at Churchill Downs, but turned in an eye-catching effort to win the one-mile and seventy-yard Jerome Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct in impressive fashion on January 3rd. Given how slow the track was playing that day, and given that rain had left the main track labeled "good," I was very impressed with how decisively El Kabeir drew off in the homestretch, suggesting that additional distance is within his capabilities. His next start may come in the Withers Stakes (gr. III) on February 7th at Aqueduct.
12. Acceptance (Vronsky - Allswellthatnswell, by Perfect Mandate) Trained by Donald Warren
This unbeaten California-bred colt has not been seriously challenged in three starts, most recently cruising to a three-length victory in the one-mile King Glorious Stakes at Los Alamitos. In that race, he settled just off the early lead before taking command and running three-quarters of a mile in a quick 1:10.79, then still had enough left in the tank to run the final quarter in :25.02 to complete the mile in 1:35.81. He has yet to run in open company, but Acceptance is clearly a very talented colt, and it will be interesting to see where he runs next.
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