While today might
not be quite as busy as yesterday in terms of racing action, there are still a
number of intriguing races to be run, including the grade I Spinster Stakes at
Keeneland. Let's start handicapping!
Bourbon Stakes (gr.
III)
Let's see here . .
. in the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) at Saratoga last month, a colt named
Balance the Books rallied past Joha to win in good fashion . . . yesterday,
Joha came back and won the grade I Breeders' Futurity . . . today, Balance the
Books goes for a win in the Bourbon Stakes . . .
Clearly, Balance
the Books beat a good horse in the With Anticipation, and the colt looks
like a solid favorite in this afternoon's Bourbon. Trained by Chad Brown, the
colt showcased a terrific turn-of-foot in the With Anticipation, and a repeat
of that effort would make him very difficult to beat.
Perhaps the colt
most likely to pull an upset is Sonofasamurai, who broke his maiden
second time out at Saratoga by three lengths, in which he closed his final
sixteenth in :5.89 seconds. From the barn of Kenny McPeek, he will likely be
toward the rear of the pack early on, along with Balance the Books, but it's
very possible that he possesses the ability to out-kick the favorite and win
the race.
Brown Almighty is also intriguing. The son of Big Brown won his first
two starts in good fashion, including the Sunny's Halo Stakes, before losing
the Sunday Silence Stakes by a neck to Java's War. Seeing how that colt came
back to finish a close third in the Breeders' Futurity, it appears as though
Brown Almighty is a very capable colt that could more than hold his own against
these runners.
Fredericksburg and Slamarama both possess decent tactical speed,
and should be prominently placed early, but they haven't showcased the kind of
late kick that will likely be needed to win this race.
Selection: Sonofasamurai
Spinster Stakes
(gr. I)
This intriguing
nine-furlong race has drawn a combination of dirt and turf horses hoping to
find success on Polytrack. Last year's winner Aruna is back to try and
win it again, but although she has run well this year, she may have been in
slightly better form last fall.
So, if you think
she can be beat as the favorite, there are plenty of other fillies to choose
from. In Lingerie has proven herself to be a very capable three-year-old
filly, winning the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (gr. II) and Bourbonette Oaks (gr.
III), in addition to placing in the Alabama Stakes (gr. I) and Coaching Club
American Oaks (gr. I). Perhaps the best thing about her is that she is 2-for-2
over synthetic tracks, but she will be facing some good mares today, and it's
difficult to say how she'll fare against her elders.
Tiz Miz Sue has proven herself to be a capable competitor on dirt,
winning the Azeri Stakes (gr. III) and placing in races like the Apple Blossom
Handicap (gr. I), Delaware Handicap (gr. II), and Obeah Stakes (gr. III) during
this year alone, but she hasn't run on a synthetic track since 2009, when she
compiled a record of 1-2-0 in three starts over the Arlington Polytrack.
Chances are, she will be able to handle the Keeneland Polytrack just fine, and
assuming she does, she may be the most likely winner of this race.
Mystical Star won the New York Stakes (gr. II) in speedy fashion
during the Belmont Park spring meet, defeating Aruna by a length, and is
2-for-2 over the Keeneland Polytrack. She is versatile enough to be near the
front or well behind, depending upon the pace scenario, and looks like a
legitimate win contender.
Karlovy Vary won the Ashland Stakes (gr. I) during the Keeneland
spring meet, but was badly beaten last time out in the Garden City Stakes (gr.
I) at Belmont Park. At her best, she would be intriguing, but until she returns
to her spring form, it's difficult to pick her in a race like this.
Selection: Mystical
Star
Grey Stakes (gr.
III)
Uncaptured has won all four of his starts, including three stakes,
by a combined 9 3/4 lengths. He's stretching out beyond seven furlongs for the
first time, but being a son of Lion Heart out of an Arch mare, he should handle
the additional distance without any trouble. He is actually the early favorite
for the Kentucky Derby, which says something about his talent.
One colt that has
proven himself over a route of ground is Tesseron, a son of Tapit that
rallied for an eye-catching victory in a one-mile, seventy-yard maiden special
weight at Woodbine last month. He appears to be a talented colt, but time will
tell if he is in the same class as the favorite.
River Seven finished third to Uncaptured in the Clarendon Stakes,
second to him in the Vandal Stakes, and second to Tesseron in that one's maiden
victory. Stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth, the son of Johannesburg
should be rallying hard at the finish, and the added distance
may allow him to catch Uncaptured.
Selection: River Seven
L.A. Woman Stakes
It's hard to look
past Winding Way in this four-horse field, as the three-year-old filly
is undefeated in three starts, including an eye-catching victory in the Rancho
Bernardo Handicap (gr. III) at Del Mar. There are only two concerns: First, she
has never run on dirt. Second, she missed a considerable amount of training
with a foot issue following the Rancho Bernardo. She has trained well since
then, but she may need to get a race under her belt before returning to peak
form.
Thus, I'm am going
to take a shot with Rumor, who most recently finished third to Winding
Way in the Rancho Bernardo. Winner of the Kalookan Queen Handicap at Santa
Anita back in January, her decent tactical speed may enable her to grab the
early lead, slow down the pace, and hold off Winding Way's late challenge to
win the race.
Selection: Rumor
-Keelerman
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