Two more "Win
and You're In" races are on the Monday card at Belmont, with a total of
seventeen two-year-old colts and fillies looking for fees-paid berths to either
the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) or the Juvenile Fillies Turf (gr. I). Let's
start handicapping!
Pilgrim Stakes (gr.
III)
As I am writing
this, three horses have been scratched -- Bernie the Jet and James Jingle, the
two main-track only entrants, and Read the Proposal. This leaves us with a
field of seven.
Favored on the
morning line is Noble Tune, a Chad Brown-trainee that rallied for an
eye-catching victory going 1 1/16th miles on the turf at Saratoga on the final
day of the meeting. He looks like a colt that will improve a great deal in his
second start, and Brown is a master at training turf horses. And of course,
having Ramon Dominguez in the saddle doesn't hurt!
Cerro is the second choice off of a seven-furlong maiden win in
Italy, after which he was purchased by Team Valor International and transferred
to the barn of Graham Motion. He obviously has plenty of potential, being an
Irish-bred son of Mr. Greeley out of a Giant's Causeway mare, and a victory
would certainly not be a surprise.
Notacatbutallama broke his maiden second-time out by 6 1/2 lengths for
trainer Todd Pletcher, then was beaten just three lengths in the With
Anticipation Stakes (gr. II) at Saratoga despite a less-than-stellar trip. In a
race that doesn't appear to have a ton of pace, I can envision this speedy colt
securing the early lead, setting a slow pace, and never looking back. Throw in
the fact that the top two finishers in the With Anticipation -- Balance the
Books and Joha -- and you start to wonder why Notacatbutallama isn't the
favorite!
Also intriguing is Quinzieme
Monarque, from the barn of Tom Albertrani. The son of Rock Hard Ten last
his first two starts in sound fashion, but made a powerful run in his third and
most recent start to win a 1 1/16th miles maiden special weight over the
Belmont turf by 4 3/4 lengths. He seems to be coming into this race in good
form, and while on the surface he may not possess quite the same turn-of-foot
as Noble Tune, he did show a bit more versatility and tactical speed in his
debut than Noble Tune did his; thus, Quinzieme Monarque may be up to pulling
off a minor upset.
Making a selection
isn't easy, as I can make a case for just about every horse in the field, but I
feel that Noble Tune will emerge victorious in the end, his brilliant
turn-of-foot being the key to victory. Notacatbutallama and Quinzieme
Monarque also look like serious contenders, but I can't quite envision them
getting the better of Noble Tune.
Miss Grillo Stakes
(gr. III)
Trainer Chad Brown
is well-represented here with Watsdachances, Atlantic Dream, and Wave
Theory, who are the first, co-second, and co-fourth choices in a ten-horse
field. The first-mentioned filly has by far the best credentials. After racing
twice in Europe, she was transferred to the barn of Chad Brown and won the P.G.
Johnson Stakes in her first U.S. start. Finishing second that day was Broken
Spell, who returned to finish a good second in the Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I) at
Keeneland, thus stamping Watsdachances as a very high-caliber filly indeed.
In contrast,
Atlantic Dream and Wave Theory are both maidens, each having raced once and
lost. Wave Theory has been a bit more impressive than her stablemate, showcasing
a sharp rally in her debut to lose a 1 1/16th miles maiden race by just a neck.
However, Atlantic Dream was beaten by some very good horses when fourth in her
debut, including Summer Stakes (gr. II) fourth-place finisher Kitten's
Dumplings and next-out Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies Stakes winner Oscar
Party. So don't count Atlantic Dream and Wave Theory out of contention, even
though their records imply that they are overmatched here.
Sustained displayed a good turn-of-foot to break her maiden
impressively at Saratoga for trainer Dale Romans; however, a fast pace may have
exaggerated the effect of her rally. Fly Again was brilliant in her
debut, rallying from last going seven furlongs on yielding turf to win under a
hand ride, but is now stepping up in distance against some very good horses.
Time will tell if she can be as effective going a mile and a sixteenth, but her
form of yielding turf -- which is what she will encounter today -- makes her an
intriguing contender.
My selection is Watsdachances,
as I feel she holds a class edge over the field and will prove much the best in
the end.
-Keelerman
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