Last week, we
watched a total of ten grade I races be run at Belmont Park and Santa Anita.
This Saturday, there are 'only' seven such events, but they are backed up by a
phenomenal set of four grade IIs and three grade IIIs. All told, I count eight
different racetracks with major races being run, and while we won't be able to
look at all of the great races, I shall do my best to examine as many as
possible. Let's begin!
Frizette Stakes
(gr. I)
It's clear that Dreaming
of Julia is an exceptionally high-caliber filly, as she has won her first
two starts by a combined 26 3/4 lengths, and that includes a terrific victory
in the Meadow Star Stakes here at Belmont on September 9th, going the same
one-mile distance at today's race. If she runs like she is capable of, she
should win this race.
My Happy Face is an intriguing entrant based off of her 21 1/4 length
maiden victory, which came in her second start. However, she has never run
farther than 5-1/2 furlongs, and whether or not she can handle the added distance
is a legitimate question.
Sweet Shirley Mae turned in a good run last time out to finish second in
the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga, but she too is stretching out in
distance, and she strikes me as a filly that will be better in sprints. Nevertheless,
she is grade I-placed, which is something no other filly in this race can
claim.
Selection: Dreaming
of Julia
Champagne Stakes
(gr. I)
The seven horses in
this race comprise one of the strongest Champagne fields in recent memory, and
a case can be made for just about every horse in the race. Todd Pletcher's Shanghai
Bobby has the best credentials, having won the Hopeful Stakes (gr. II)
impressively last time out and being undefeated in three starts, but Fortify
and Bern Identity, the 2-3 finishers behind in the Hopeful, are back to
take him on again. And Fortify looks like a colt that will really
appreciate the added distance.
Archwarrior and Micromanage, both of whom broke their maidens
at Saratoga impressively for trainer Todd Pletcher, have legitimate shots at
defeating their more accomplished stablemate. Both have strong enough pedigrees
to handle the distance -- Archwarrior especially -- and both are eligible to
improve in their second starts.
However, the most
intriguing entrant may be Goldencents, who romped to a simply
spectacular debut win at Del Mar on September 2nd. Going 5-1/2 furlongs,
Goldencents broke sharply and went straight to the lead, setting fractions of
:22.83 and :46.15. He then ran his fifth furlong in a practically unheard of
:10.95 seconds to open up an effortless seven-length lead, then coasted through
an exceptional final sixteenth in :5.69 second to win in unbelievably easy
fashion. Maybe he doesn't have the strongest staying pedigree in the world, but
based off of the raw talent he displayed in his debut, I'm going to take a shot
with him and hope he can handle the jump in class and distance.
Selection: Goldencents
Jamaica Handicap
(gr. I)
Dullahan, coming off of a stunning victory in the ten-furlong
Pacific Classic (gr. I) on Polytrack, is the 4-5 morning line favorite to pick
up another grade I victory in this nine-furlong turf race. Obviously, he
deserves to be favored, but shortening up in distance over a surface which he
has never won upon, the possibility exists that he could be upset at a short
price.
However, the only
colt I can really envision pulling off the upset is Cogito, a
European-based colt owned by Paul Reddam. Last time out, the son of Giant's
Causeway finished a sharp second to subsequent Secretariat Stakes (gr. I)
Bayrir in the group II Grand Prix de Maisons-Laffitte, stamping himself as a
colt of very good quality. But the clincher for me is that Frankie Dettori has
come to ride him.
Selection: Cogito
Woodford Stakes
(gr. III)
On paper, this race
looks like a battle between Bridgetown and Chamberlain Bridge,
two of the best turf sprinters in the country. The first-mentioned colt is
coming off of a hard-earned victory in the Troy Stakes at Saratoga, which was
his first victory of the year. All told, he has compiled an excellent record of
8-5-1 from 18 starts, and his front-running speed should enable him to get a great
trip.
Chamberlain Bridge
was in spectacular form two years ago, the year he won the Breeders' Cup Turf
Sprint (gr. III) and four other stakes. 2011 was not nearly as productive, but
the now eight-year-old gelding seems to be rounding into form again, winning
the My Frenchman Stakes two starts back and most recently being beaten a head
in the Turf Monster Handicap (gr. III). If Great Mills or Ginplay
keep Bridgetown occupied on the front end, then they could potentially set the
race up for Chamberlain Bridge's late run.
Speaking of Great
Mills, he was beaten just a head by Chamberlain Bridge in the Turf Monster
after setting the pace and may be capable of pulling off a mild upset if things
go his way.
Selection: Chamberlain
Bridge
Thoroughbred Club of
American Stakes (gr. II)
This race looks
like a perfect spot for Groupie Doll, who is the heavy morning line
favorite at 4-5. Quite possibly the best female sprinter in the country,
Groupie Doll won the Vinery Madison Stakes (gr. I) here at Keeneland during the
spring meet, then followed that up with a dominating triumph in the Humana
Distaff (gr. I) at Churchill Downs. A minor injury sidelined her during the
summer, but she returned in good form to take the Presque Isle Downs Masters
Stakes (gr. II) on September 8th by nearly four lengths. Given how well this
race fits her, I can't really envision Groupie Doll losing.
Emma's Encore merits respect off of her victory in the Prioress Stakes
(gr. I) at Saratoga, but most recently finished a dull fifth in the Gallant
Bloom Handicap (gr. II) at Belmont Park. Perhaps she will rebound, but her only
previous start over a synthetic track was an eighth-place finish in a maiden
special weight here at Keeneland last fall. Granted, she is much better than
that now, but until she proves herself over Polytrack, it's difficult to pick
her to win.
Honey Chile will probably receive some betting support off of two
allowance wins over the Arlington Polytrack, but has never won a stakes race
despite numerous attempts to do so. On the other hand, she does possess good
speed, and should the track turn up speed-favoring, she could potentially take
this race a long way on the front end.
Selection: Groupie
Doll
First Lady Stakes
(gr. I)
Hungry Island and Tapitsfly, who have met four times this year
with each emerging on top of the other twice, will meet again in this one-mile
turf race where they are the two favorites. Tapistfly, with her front-running
speed, would appear to have a tactical advantage over Hungry Island, but the latter
filly seems to be in slightly better form. Figuring out which one will beat the
other does not look like an easy task.
But what if it
doesn't matter? I have the feeling that Summer Soiree may beat them
both. The speedy filly won the Del Mar Oaks (gr. I) last summer and
subsequently finished second in the Matriarch Stakes (gr. I). She then went to
the sidelines for nine months, returning in August to finish a decent third in
the Ballston Spa Stakes (gr. II) at Saratoga despite setting a simply blazing
pace. With that effort under her belt, and shortening up to a flat mile, I feel
that Summer Soiree could beat Tapitsfly to the early lead and hold off Hungry
Island late to pull off a mild upset.
Selection: Summer
Soiree
Dixiana Breeders'
Futurity (gr. I)
This huge and deep
field contains no solid favorite, and drawing names from a height might give
you about as good a shot at picking the winner as actually handicapping the
race.
I won't go into a
deep description of all the major contenders, as it would take much too long,
but I will give a couple of brief thoughts on the horses I like best.
Joha -- proved himself on Polytrack by winning a stakes race at
Woodbine, and most recently ran second in the With Anticipation Stakes (gr. II)
at Saratoga.
Pataky Kid -- won the Arlington-Washington Futurity (gr. III) in
visually impressive fashion.
Dynamic Sky -- Won a sprint stakes over the Woodbine Polytrack;
trainer Mark Casse won Alcibiades yesterday with Spring in the Air.
Java's War -- Won Sunday Silence Stakes impressively on turf; if he
handles Polytrack, he could be dangerous.
Craving Carats -- Ran poorly without obvious excuse in With
Anticipation, but was impressive in maiden win and can rebound for Dale Romans
and Kent Desormeaux, who teamed up and won this race with Dullahan last year.
Are You Kidding Me
-- rallied to be second behind
slow-pace leader in Summer Stakes (gr. II) on turf.
Tizracer -- broke maiden at Belmont by 10 1/2; must prove himself on
Polytrack.
Of this group, I
like Java's War and Craving Carats best, slightly favoring the
former over the latter. But this race is so wide-open, I wouldn't be surprised
if any of the entrants won.
Shadwell Turf Mile
Stakes (gr. I)
Wise Dan has been exceptional this year, winning the Woodbine
Mile (gr. I) and two other graded stakes in dominating fashion. He is the
deserving favorite, but with eleven other horses in the field, anything can
happen. Add this to the fact that he was entered in the race sort of at the
last minute, and one must wonder if he is fully cranked for this race.
Given how much
front-running speed is in this race, I really like the chances of Data Link.
The colt won the Maker's 46 Mile Stakes (gr. I) here at Keeneland during the
spring meet, and did not disgrace himself when second to Dominus in the Bernard
Baruch Handicap (gr. II) last time out. If the turf turns up less than firm,
I'll probably switch to Wise Dan, who has proven himself convincingly over such
conditions. But if the turf is in good shape, I think Data Link can out-kick
Wise Dan in the homestretch to pull off the upset.
Selection: Data
Link
Arroyo Seco Mile
(gr. II)
Obviously and Mr. Commons were separated by just a nose last
time out in the Del Mar Mile (gr. I), but I believe that Obviously's brilliant
speed will enable him to win again. Facing only four rivals, none of which
possess his early speed, I see Obviously going straight to the lead, bounding
through fast fractions, and holding off Mr. Commons late to win. Now, let's not
underestimate Mr. Commons, as he seems to relish the Santa Anita turf course
more than any other, but his late-running style puts him at a distinct
disadvantage against his speedier rival.
Trailblazer is an interesting entrant. A Japanese-based colt, he is
using this race as a prep for the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. I), so the one-mile
distance of this race is probably a bit short for him. But the top Japanese
jockey Yutaka Take has come to ride him, so I will be very interested to see
how Trailblazer performs.
Selection: Obviously
Santa Anita Sprint
Championship (gr. I)
Amazombie won this race last year, back when it was known as the
Ancient Title Stakes, and appears ready to win it again. The six-year-old
gelding has been in exceptional form this year, and has been training very
well.
The only possible
concern is that there might not be enough pace to set up his run. Now,
Amazombie is a versatile runner, and he can be close to the pace when he needs
to be. But he does appear to do best when the early pace is quick and he can
settle off of it before launching a late run, which is how he won this race
last year. So I'm going to take a shot with the three-year-old filly Reneesgotzip,
who has never been headed in her four sprint races. Last time out, she won the
C.E.R.F. Stakes at Del Mar off of a long layoff, drawing away strongly in the
stretch to win by 3 1/4 lengths in a blazing 1:08.23 seconds. Maybe she's not
as good as Amazombie, but she loves Santa Anita, and should have a huge
tactical advantage in a race with only one other true front-runner.
Selecion: Reneesgotzip
Hawthorne Gold Cup
Handicap (gr. II)
On his best form, Nates
Mineshaft would be the horse to beat -- after all, he has recorded Beyer
speed figures of 113 and 107 this year, figures which tower over those earned
by his rivals.
However, Nates
Mineshaft has not run since finishing third in the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr.
I) in June, and has recorded only four workouts in preparation for this race.
His trainer admits that his horse could really use a bit more time to prepare.
Add this to the fact that Nates Mineshaft is unproven at ten furlongs, and it
becomes clear that while this race could go a long way toward getting Nates
Mineshaft back to top form, he probably isn't sharp enough to win.
So who can beat
him? Well, an obvious contender is Alternation, who won three graded
stakes races earlier this year and most recently Governor's Cup Stakes at
Remington Park in sharp fashion. The three-year-old Fly Lexis Fly was a
two-time group I winner in Peru, and most recently finished second in the Super
Derby (gr. II). Pool Play gets back on dirt for the first time since his
upset victory in the 2011 Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I), and is eligible to
improve off of his recent efforts.
But the most
intriguing contender of all is Cease, who finished second in this race
last year. Based off of his sharp third in the Woodward Stakes (gr. I) last
time out, it seems clear that he is in good form, and he should appreciate the
distance of today's affair. He's also getting five pounds from Alternation.
Selection: Cease
Indiana Oaks (gr.
III)
If Grace Hall runs
as well as she did two starts back in the Delaware Oaks (gr. II), I can't
envision her losing this race. However, the fine filly has shown to be just a
tad bit inconsistent, and she enters this race off of a dull fifth in the
Alabama Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga. But her trainer feels he's got her primed
for a much better effort today, and I'm going to believe him and assume that
the real Grace Hall will show up today.
Wine Princess, winner of the Monmouth Oaks (gr. III) last time out, and Eden's
Moon, winner of the Las Virgenes Stakes (gr. I) earlier this year, have the
talent to pull off an upset if Grace Hall fails to fire, but both are
front-runners, and the possibility does exist that they could duel each other
into submission.
Selection: Grace
Hall
Indiana Derby (gr.
II)
Fed Biz and Bourbon Courage are the deserving favorites,
as both have compiled strong records and are in excellent form. Fed Biz,
trained by two-time Indiana Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert, won the El Cajon
Stakes at Del Mar following a lengthy layoff and should only be sharper today.
Bourbon Courage
recorded a pair of triple-digit Beyer speed figures during the Fair Grounds
spring meet before disappointing in a pair of one-turn stakes races. However,
the colt rounded back in to form when stretched out in distance, finishing a
good second in the West Virginia Derby (gr. II) before rallying to a convincing
score in the Super Derby (gr. II) last time out.
Outside of those
two, things become a little less clear. Neck 'n Neck showed great form
in early summer, winning an allowance race by 6 1/2 lengths and the Matt Winn
Stakes (gr. III) by 7 1/4, but after finishing a decent second to Alpha in the
Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II), he failed to fire in the Travers Stakes (gr. I) and
wound up sixth. Stealcase was soundly beaten by Neck 'n Neck in the Matt
Winn, but has since finished third in the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) and
first in the Ontario Derby (gr. III), signaling that he is in better form now. Second
City is unbeaten in four starts, including a terrific late-running triumph
in the British Colombia Derby (gr. III), but is taking a sizable step up in
class. O'Prado Again won the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last fall at
Aqueduct, but was injured shortly thereafter and is making his first start
since then. Easter Gift won the Smarty Jones Stakes (gr. III) at Parx
Racing, but is unproven against company of this caliber.
I like three colts
in this race -- Fed Biz, Neck 'n Neck, and O'Prado Again, although not
necessarily in that order. I like Fed Biz for his raw talent, Neck 'n Neck for
his record, and O'Prado Again for his potential and recent workouts. If I have
to pick one, I'll go with Fed Biz, for one must always respect a Bob
Baffert-trainee in races like these.
Selection: Fed
Biz
Mazarine Stakes
(gr. III)
Natalma Stakes (gr.
II) winner Spring Venture looks like a very solid favorite in this spot.
True, she has never raced on Polytrack, but given how well she handles turf,
that shouldn't be a concern. Plus, the filly she beat in the Natalma -- Spring
in the Air -- came back to dominate the Alcibiades Stakes (gr. I) yesterday at
Keeneland.
However, it's
possible that Every Way could pull off an upset. She has raced only
once, winning a one-mile maiden special weight over the Arlington Polytrack on
August 25th, but it was the way she did it that has caught my eye. After racing
fifth behind a slow pace for much of the race, she lost ground into the
homestretch and appeared to be beaten while trailing the leader by five lengths
at the eighth pole. Yet somehow, she was able to rally for the victory, running
her final eighth in something like :11.23 seconds.
So will class
prevail in the Mazarine, or will affinity for Polytrack emerge on top? You
could pick either one of these fine fillies and feel comfortable with your
selection, but I guess I'll go with Spring Venture and hope she can
out-kick Every Way in the homestretch.
Selection: Spring
Venture
Mike Sherman
Memorial Stakes
Last year's Eclipse
champion female sprinter Musical Romance is using this $55,000 stakes as
her final prep for the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (gr. I). On class,
she towers over this field, but it is unlikely that she's fully cranked for
this race, so an upset is possible.
With that in mind,
I believe I shall go with Spectacular Sky. The four-year-old filly has
won three straight sprint races here at Calder in front-running fashion, and I
believe that she can make that four straight later this afternoon.
Selection: Spectacular
Sky
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment