As I am typing this, it is just eight hours and seventeen minutes until Kentucky Oaks day. Of course, that is how many hours it is until midnight, and it will be at least another twenty-four hours or so before the big race is actually run. But that's good, because it gives me plenty of time to make my picks for the day.
THE KENTUCKY OAKS UNDERCARD --- RACE 1-10
I'll begin with the first race on the Kentucky Oaks card, and that is a seven furlong $52,500 allowance race for fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won $7,500 twice other then maiden, claming, or starter or which have never won three races. Yes, it is a very specific set of conditions, but it still drew a field of eight, led by the morning line favorite Ravi's Song.
Ravi's Song, a four year old daughter of Unbridled's Song, has a record of 2-2-0 from five starts. Although she has not raced since September 19th of last year, she had been racing very well up to that point. In her last race, she ran second to Best Lass in the Prairie Meadows Oaks. It wasn't exactly a grade I race, but she looks like a deserving favorite here.
Diamond Song is another well liked mare. The five year old daughter of Unbridled's Song has never run in a stakes race, but has been fairly consistent. She will be ridden by Robby Albarado, and may have a shot at pulling the minor upset.
Also well liked is the D. Wayne Lukas trained Color Me Up. The five year old daughter of Aptitude has started twenty-nine times, but has won only twice. But she has finished second seven times and third six times. She has also competed in ten graded stakes races, including four grade ones. I wouldn't ignore her either.
My picks? Well, I don't exactly have a really good opinion, as I have never heard of anyone other than Ravi's Song. But hey, it's Kentucky Derby weekend and who cares if I have no idea who's going to win! I'll put the field in order anyway!
Here I go. . .
1 Ravi's Song
2 Color Me Up
3 Dixie Pixie
4 Yonakee
5 Diamond Song
6 Fortune Play
7 Irish Wish
8 Zone
There they are, my picks for the first race at Churchill. I can't wait to see how I do!
Moving on, we come to the second race, a one mile Maiden Special Weight race for fillies and mares three and up which have never won a race.
In this race, I'm afraid that I know even less. But I'll look up some information and see what I think. . .
Okay, I did some research. The morning line favorite is the number seven horse Azurite, a three year old daughter of Rock Hard Ten. She has raced only once, finishing second in a Maiden Special Weight race at Fair Grounds. Smarty's Dream, a three year old daughter of. . . Smarty Jones? I'm not sure. But she is the 9-2 second choice, and has raced four times, all in Maiden Special Weight races. She has finished second once and third once. She could be in the mix.
Then there is Island Bound. The three year old daughter of someone is the 6-1 morning line co-fourth choice. She has started twice, and has finished second once. She will be ridden by Julien Leparoux.
But don't forget English Girl! The only older horse in the field, the daughter of Broken Vow will have to carry seven pounds more than all of the other entries, but will be ridden by Calvin Borel, who is a master here at Churchill Downs.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Azurite
2 English Girl
3 Island Bound
4 Smarty's Dream
5 Shirley She Can
6 Crown the Cat
7 Rigamaro
8 Officer's Glory
9 Rendition
10 Karen Ann
11 Up and Away
Ahh. . . I'm feel so good when I'm confident about my picks. . . even when I had never heard of my picks until a few days ago. . . :)
Moving on, we come to the third race, a one mile turf Maiden Special Weight race for three year olds and upward which have never won a race.
The morning line favorite is Quick Delivery, a gelded son of Distorted Humor. He has Garrett Gomez in the saddle, which is never a bad thing, but will have to carry seven pounds more than all of the three year olds in the race.
The morning line second choice is Hybrid. The three year old son of Dixie Union has only started once, in a maiden race at Keeneland. He did not finish in the top three. But he will be ridden by Robby Albarado. However, he has to break from gate ten.
Gigantos is another colt with a shot. The four year old son of someone has Julien Leparoux in the saddle, and is 6-1 on the morning line odds. He has only raced once, finishing off the board, but has been training really well and looks ready for a big effort.
15-1 on the morning line is Kildare Cat. The unraced three year old is 15-1 on the morning line, but has Calvin Borel as a rider. He may have a big chance at winning.
So here are my picks. I've included the four Also Eligibles, just in case one or more get in.
1 Quick Delivery
2 Kildare Cat
3 Gigantos
4 Hybrid
5 Bird Empire
6 Soldero
7 My Piano Man
8 Belgrave Square
9 Bascom Hall
10 Admiral Benbow
11 Tonto Fontenot
12 Spoon River Lew
13 Sudden Interest
14 Infamous Spin
15 Win It
16 Sneaky Dreams
And that's all for the third race. Moving on, we come to the fourth race, which is a six furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race for fillies three years old which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter or which have never won two races.
The morning line favorite is Fuzzy Britches, and I agree that she is probably the best horse here. But she has to break from get eleven, and at six furlongs, it may cost her the race.
Elusive Jozi comes to mind as a potential upset horse. Although she was pretty well beaten in her last start, the grade III Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Ground back in February, she looks like she has a chance here.
Mallory Square could also spring the surprise. Last March, she ran third, beaten two and a half lengths, in the Florida Oaks behind Diva Delite. She comes into tomorrow's race off of an allowance race at Keeneland. I don't know what place she got, but I think that she hit the board.
Souma might also be in the mix. She comes into tomorrow's race off of a win in a maiden race at Gulfstream Park on March 5th. But she has to break from gate eight.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Mallory Square
2 Elusive Jozi
3 Fuzzy Britches
4 Souma
5 Oscar de La Thorn
6 Go for Jan
7 Water of Life
8 All Country
10 Funny Feeling
9 Kantstopdancin
11 Glowing Report
12 Bringingdown Babel
I think that Fuzzy Britches won't be able to overcome gate eleven, leaving Mallory Square and Elusive Jozi to battle it out. Souma will finish fourth, with Calvin Borel and Oscar de La Thorn fifth.
Now we come to the fifth race, a one mile turf Allowance Optional Claiming race for fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won $8,990 three times other than maidens, claiming, starter, or state bred or which have never won four races or claiming price $80,000.
The morning line favorite of those guaranteed to get in is 7-2 Danzon, a veteran seven year old mare who has been racing since 2005. She competed in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf of 2007, finishing tenth, and I feel is without a doubt the horse to beat. However, she has drawn gate eleven and may be caught a bit wide on the turns.
In that case, Missit and Forest Trail will be right there to challenge her. The former, a five year old daughter of Orpen, has only won three times in fifteen starts, but that include a grade II win in her United States debut. That was in 2008, and I don't believe that she has won since. The latter, a five year old daughter of Forest Wildcat, has competed in four stakes races, two of the graded, but I don't believe that she has won any of them.
But don't forget the Also Eligible filly Multipass. The four year old daughter of Olmodavor is actually the morning line favorite at 3-1, but would need someone to scratch before she could get into the race. She has started thirteen times, winning four, finishing second three times, and third once. She has competed in two stakes races, both of them last year. They were Remington Park Oaks and the grade I Gazelle Stakes. She won neither of them, but did run second, beaten a length by Payton d'Oro, in the former. Interesting, Julien Leparoux, who is slated to ride Multipass, is also set to ride Forest Trail. Either one horse is going to be scratched or a replacement jockey will be found for one of them.
Calvin Borel does not have a mount in this race.
So here are my selections. (Including Multipass. . .)
1 Danzon
2 Missit
3 Multi Pass
4 Forest Trail
5 Rinterval
6 War Tigress
7 Grand Annee
8 Coulee
9 Deputy Darling
10 Kiss Mine
11 Flaming Gal
12 Susies Gal
13 Absolutely Cindy
I feel confident that Danzon is the best horse and won't get caught too wide. Missit looks ready to run a good race, and Multi Pass should also run well.
Now we come to the first stakes race on the card, the grade II La Troienne Stakes for fillies and mares three years old and up. The field is small, only six horses, but the mile and a sixteenth event has drawn reigning Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra.
To begin with, there is the number one horse Be Fair. The four year old daughter of Exchange Rate is coming off of a third place finish to the undefeated Zenyatta about three weeks ago. Although her record of 15-4-0-2 isn't very good, she did compete in an incredible twelve races last year, ten of them graded stakes, and seven of them in grade ones! Trained by D. Wayne Lukas and ridden by Terry Thompson, she may run better than her 20-1 morning line odds say she will. She will carry 118 pounds.
Speaking of 20-1, those are the same morning line odds that have been given to the number two horse, Morena. The six year old daughter of Privately Held has made twenty-one starts, starting with her dabut in March 2007. Racing in Peru until mid 2009, she scored ten wins, two seconds, and one third from fifteen starts in that country. However, when shipped to the United States, her luck seemed to go bad.
In her United States debut, she ran second while well beaten in the Obeah Stakes, won by Unbridled Belle. She then ran fourth in the Delaware Handicap, third in the Personal Ensign Stakes, second in the Falls Cuty Handicap, fourth in the Stage Door Betty, and seventh in the The Very One Stakes. She hasn't been nearly as good here as she was in Peru, but perhaps she will return to form tomorrow. She is trained by Michael Matz, who trained Barbaro to win the 2006 Kentucky Derby, and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano. She will carry 118 pounds.
Now we come to Zardana, who blew up any plans for a Rachel Alexandra/Zenyatta match up in the 2010 Apple Blossom Handicap by defeating the former in last month's New Orleans Ladies at Fair Grounds in Louisiana. In that race, the six year old daughter of Crimson Tide sat just behind the champion for much of the race before making her three wide bid on the second turn. After a long stretch dual, Zardana pulled away to win by three quarters of a length at 9.5-1. She will not be sent off at those odds tomorrow. She is trained by John Shirreffs and will carry 120 pounds. She will be ridden by David Flores and is the 3-1 morning line second choice.
This brings us to the champion, the great Rachel Alexandra. The four year old daughter of Medaglia d'Oro had an incredible eight-for-eight campaign last year which included a twenty and a quarter length victory in the Kentucky Oaks, a one length triumph in the Preakness, and nineteen and three quarter length win in the Mother Goose, a six length win in the Haskell Invitational, and a dramatic head victory in the Woodward Stakes early last September. In her only race since then, however, she ran second to Zardana as mentioned above. But she has been training exceptionally well at Churchill Downs lately and looks ready to return to her winning ways. She is the 3-5 morning line favorite and has regular rider Calvin Borel in the saddle, but she does have to carry top weight of 124 pounds. But she looks ready. She is trained by Steve Asmussen.
Then there is the number five horse, Unrivaled Belle. The lightly raced four year old daughter of Unbridled's Song is the 4-1 morning line third choice but looks ready to tackle the champion. She began her career extremely well, finishing second in a maiden race at Keeneland last April, and four months later breaking her maiden at Monmouth Park. She then won an allowance race at Belmont Park and took the Real Prize Stakes before finishing second to Flashing in the grade I Gazelle Stakes. In her 2010 debut, she ran fourth behind Striking Dancer, Gripsholm Castle, and Floating Heart in the grade II La Canada Stakes at Santa Anita. She then shipped to Gulfstream Park and won the grade III Rampart Stakes by 1 3/4 lengths. Tomorrow, she will carry 120 pounds and will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux. She is trained by William Mott.
Finally, we come to the six horse, Distinctive Dixie. The five year old daughter of 2000 Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus has made fourteen starts, winning four, finishing second in five, and third in two. But it took her seven tried to break her maiden. She has never won a stakes race, but has twice finished second in Oaklawn Park's Bayakoa Stakes, and actually comes into the La Troienne off of one of those performances. But despite this record, she is the 8-1 morning line fourth choice. She will carry 118 pounds tomorrow and will be ridden by top jockey Julien Leparoux, a regular at Churchill Downs. She is trained by W. Dollase.
So here are my picks for the race. . .
1 Rachel Alexandra
2 Zardana
3 Unrivaled Belle
4 Be Fair
5 Morena
6 Distinctive Dixie
I could be wrong, but I am very confident that Rachel Alexandra will return to the form that saw her win so many stakes races last year. She may be a bit rusty, but I'm sure that she can win. Zardana is currently in form and ready for a big race, and Unrivaled Belle appears ready too. I don't like Distinctive Dixie here, but she could prove me wrong and hit the board. We'll see what happens.
Now we come to the seventh race, the five furlongs grade III Kentucky Juvenile Stakes. For two year olds that are at least twenty-four calendar months old, the morning line favorite is Nina Fever, a filly. The second choice is Twelve Pack Shelly, a filly. The third choice is Final Mesa, a filly. The remaining six entries are all colts. Very interesting. . .
Anyway, I agree that Nina Fever is the horse to beat (I am a dedicated Nina Fever fan) and would love to see her win. She comes into the race off of a win in her first race, a four and a half Maiden Special Weight race at Keeneland. In that race, despite breaking slowly, she raced up to take the lead and drew off to win by eight. But can she do the same against colts? We'll see.
Lou Brissie, the co-favorite among the colts, should also run nicely. He is currently undefeated in one start. Wetzel should do well too. He is also undefeated in one start. Twelve Pack Shelly, another undefeated filly, is one of the few runners to have run on dirt.
Calvin Borel does not have a mount.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Nina Fever
2 Lou Brissie
3 Wetzel
4 Twelve Pack Shelly
5 Weekend Wildcat
6 Final Mesa
7 Boys At Tosconova
8 The Freak
9 Saturday Dance
I'm pretty confident that Nina Fever can win the race, but I know that Lou Brissie is going to challenge her. Weekend Wildcat, although he has never won a race, looks ready to keep improving and could upset the race.
Now I shall quick discuss the eighth race, the grade III Churchill Downs Turf Sprint Stakes. The five furlong race for three year olds and upward drew a solid field of eleven led by the 2-1 morning line favorite Silver Timber. The seven year old son of Prime Timber comes off of a win in the grade III Shakertown Stakes at Keeneland three weeks ago. But can he be upset?
It's possible. The 5-2 morning line second choice Chamberlain Bridge finished fourth in his last race, but it was in the Shakertown and he was only beaten a length and a quarter for the win. He will definitely be in the mix, as he will be carrying six pounds less than the favorite. He won this race last year.
The four year old filly Starfish Bay could also threaten the two favorites. She comes into tomorrow's race off of a win in the Ladies Turf Sprint Stakes at Gulfstream Park, getting her five furlongs in :53 3/5.
So here are my picks. . .
1 Starfish Bay
2 Silver Timber
3 Chamberlain Bridge
4 Perfect Officer
5 Barge
6 Formidable
7 Heavenly Chorus
8 Lit'sgoodlookngray
9 Moralist
10 Central City
11 Mitigation
This brings us to the ninth race, the grade III Alysheba Stakes The mile and a sixteenth race for three year olds and upward drew a extremely talented field of older males, of which any could go on to the Eclipse award for Champion Older Male later this year.
To begin with, there is the number one horse Chocolate Candy. 5-1 on the morning line, the four year old son of Candy Ride ran fifth in last year's Kentucky Derby, but has not done much else since. He has not raced since finishing off the board in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, but looks ready to make a successful return to the races. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Rafael Bejarano. He is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and will be wearing blinkers for the first time.
This brings us to the number two horse, the 7-2 morning line second choice Friesan Fire. The four year old son of A.P. Indy was last year's Kentucky Derby favorite, but ran nineteenth after considerable problems arose during the race. Prior to the Derby, he had won a maiden special weight race, the LeComte, the Risen Star, and the Lousiana Derby. He followed the Kentucky Derby with a very poor effort in the Preakness were he injured his leg. He did not return to the races for almost seven months, where he ran third in an allowance optional claiming race. He the rebounded with a win in the Louisiana Handicap where he ran fourth, beaten five and three quarter lengths. But he looks ready to run a winning performance tomorrow. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan. He is trained by Steve Asmussen.
Then there is the number three horse Macho Again. The five year old son of Macho Uno has put in many good late runs, but his most memorable coming when he lost by a head to super filly Rachel Alexandra in the 2009 Woodward Stakes after making a tremendous run from the back of the pack. He has made twenty-two starts, winning six and finishing second in six, but his last two efforts, coming in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Clark Handicap, have been below par for him. But prior to that he was doing extremely well, winning the New Orleans Handicap, Stephen Foster Handicap, as well as running second in the Whitney Handicap and the previously Woodward. However, he finished sixth in this race last year. But anyway, he is 5-1 on the morning line, and will carry 118 pounds. He will be ridden by Robby Albarabo and is trained by D. Stewart.
Now we come to the number four horse Cool Coal Man. The son of Mineshaft is 4-1 on the morning line and has been racing fairly well, but doesn't seem to be quite as good as some of the others in this race. However, he ran second in this race last year while finishing in from of Macho Again, so he could be in the mix. Interestingly, he is entered to race here tomorrow and in the Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby day. I don't believe that he will be running in both, so he will probably scratch from one. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Jose Lezcano. He is trained by Nick Zito.
This brings us to the number five horse Prom Shoes. This is the 30-1 morning line longshot. Last year, he ran eighth in this race. He probably deserves to be the longshot here, but with Calvin Borel in the saddle, you never know what might happen. This will be Prom Shoes' third straight appearance in this race. Tomorrow, he will carry 118 pounds and is trained by W. Fires.
Then there is the number six horse Bullsbay. Bullsbay had a break out year in 2009, racing eleven times while winning. . . I believe four of his starts, including last year's Alysheba Stakes and the grade I Whitney Handicap. He also ran third to Rachel Alexandra and Macho Again in the Woodward. At 6-1 on the morning line, he could easily run better than his odds say he will. The six year old son of Tiznow will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Jeremy Rose. He is trained by Graham Motion.
This brings us to the morning line favorite at 3-1, Arson Squad. The seven year old veteran son of Brahms will be making his twenty-seventh start, and his twentieth start in a graded stakes race. He had not been competing very well, having not won a race since the grade II Meadowlands Cup Handicap in October 2008, but finally found his way back to the winners circle four weeks ago in the grade III Skip Away Stakes at Gulfstream Park. He looks ready to run a good race tomorrow. He will carry 122 pounds and will be ridden by P. Lopez. He is trained by Richard Dutrow.
Now we come to the number eight horse Flying Private. One of the few colts who made it through every Triple Crown race last year, (Actually, I think he was one and Mine That Bird was the other) he has only one twice in two starts but finished fourth in the Preakness Stakes. I don't believe that he has ever won a stakes race, but you never know what might happen tomorrow. 12-1 on the morning line, he will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Terry Thompson. He is trained by D. Wayne Lukas.
Finally, we come to the number nine horse Enriched. The five year old gelded son of High Brite has had a solid career, turning out a record of 16-5-5-2. Although I believe that he is a stakes winner, he hasn't been facing top company. However, he has been racing in California all of his life and has never run on a regular dirt track. Because of this, it is hard to say what he might do at Churchill Downs. This horse could surprise everyone at big odds. He will carry 118 pounds and will be ridden by Joel Rosario. He is trained by Doug O'Neill.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Chocolate Candy
2 Bullsbay
3 Arson Squad
4 Friesan Fire
5 Cool Coal Man
6 Macho Again
7 Enriched
8 Prom Shoes
9 Flying Private
As you can see, I feel that Chocolate Candy is ready to run his best race. Bullsbay should return to form off of his layoff, although I don't think he is quite ready to run his best race. As for Arson Squad, he seems to be rounding back into form and could fire a big one, but has to carry four pounds more than everyone else. As for Macho Again, I just don't like him here.
Now we come to the eleventh race, the race run right before the Kentucky Oaks. It is the grade II American Turf Stakes, a mile a sixteenth turf race for three year olds. The morning line favorite at 3-1 is Lost Aptitude. He has been racing in fairly high caliber races, but has not raced since finishing off the board in the Fountain of Youth Stakes back in February. He will have to carry the co-top weight of 119 pounds.
Setsuko is one of the many colts who could threaten for the win. The son of Pleasantly Perfect comes into the race off of dual second place finishes in the Sham Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. I'm not sure if he can win, but if the race comes off the turf, I feel he will get the job done.
Guys Reward could threaten as well. He comes into the race off of a third place finish to Nordic Truce in the grade III Transylvania Stakes.
Doubles Partner is another colt I'll mention. Although he failed to take to the synthetic track in the Lanes End Stakes last month, he does have a win over Lentenor in a nine furlong turf allowance race at Gulfstream Park. He will also be racing without blinkers this time.
Asphalt, Gleam of Hope, Workin for Hops, Alfarabi, Strike the Tiger, and Saint Eligius are all solid contenders too. Make Music for Me was entered to run, but won't because he ended up getting into the Kentucky Derby.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Guys Reward
2 Setsuko
3 Workin for Hops
4 Doubles Partner
5 Lost Aptitude
6 Alfarabi
7 Gleam of Hope
8 Asphalt
9 Strike the Tiger
10 Saint Eligius
I feel confident that Guys Reward can pull the upset, with Setsuko rallying for second. I don't like Lost Aptitude here. I don't know why, but I just have this feeling that he is not ready to run his best race. Workin for Hops is my longshot for third.
And now, we come to the race that everybody has been waiting for. The eleventh race. The big one. For three year old fillies, it is the Kentucky Oaks!
KENTUCKY OAKS
Also known as the Run for the Lilies, the Kentucky Oaks has drawn a full field of talented fillies, led by the three time grade I winner Blind Luck. But I must begin my handicapping with the number one horse, as I feel that is the best way to do it.
So here we go. . .
The number one horse is It's Tea Time. The daughter of Dynaformer has only made three starts. In her first one, a Maiden Special Weight race at Gulfstream Park, she ran second, but broke her maiden in her next start. Stepped up to grade I company in the Ashland Stakes, she rallied from sixth at odds of 18-1 to just fall a neck short of upsetting the race. Despite the fact that the Ashland Stakes was run at Keeneland, which has always been a bit unusual, It's Tea Time should take to the dirt at Churchill Downs extremely well. She is bred to like it and despite the fact that her morning line odds are 15-1, she can pull the upset. She will be ridden by Alan Garcia and is trained by G. R. Arnold, II. She will carry 121 pounds, the same as every other runner.
The number two horse is Jody Slew. The daughter of Slew City Clew is 30-1 on the morning line, but has the potential to run much better than that. She has two stakes races this year, the Tiffany Lass and the Silverbulletday, but failed badly in the Fair Ground Oaks, running seventh behind Quiet Temper. But, about a week before that race, she had cast herself in her stall and was forced to miss training. Despite this, she was only beaten six and three quarter lengths and looks ready to rebound off of that effort. I would not even blink if this filly was to win by many lengths. She will be ridden by Miguel Mena and is trained by Bret Calhoun.
Then there is the three horse, Quiet Temper. The daughter of Quiet American has been running quite well lately, and has a career record of 8-3-4-0. She comes into the Kentucky Oaks off of a half length victory in the Fair Ground Oaks last month. At two, she won the $500,000 Boyd Gaming's Delt Princess Stakes Powered by Youbet.com. She has been training extremely well at Churchill Downs, and with Robby Albardo in the saddle, she could pull the upset with morning line odds of 10-1. She is trained by Dale Romans, a top trainer at Churchill Downs.
This brings us to the four horse, Age of Humor. The daughter of Distorted Humor is 30-1 on the morning line, but has never failed to finish in the top three in fives starts. This year, she has run second in the Busanda Stakes at Aqueduct, third in the Silverbulletday Stakes at Fair Grounds, and second in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. In her five starts, she has raced at five different tracks, and the Kentucky Oaks will make it six starts at six different tracks. Who knows? Perhaps she will like Churchill Downs best of all! Anyway, she has a big chance at getting the win, and will be ridden by Rajiv Maragh. She is trained by Michael Maker.
Now we come to the 6-5 overwhelming morning line favorite Blind Luck. The daughter of Pollard's Vision has been extremely impressive through out her career, and is the deserving favorite for the Run for the Lilies. At two, she won a maiden race and a start allowance race before stepping up into grade I company, where she ran second to Mi Sueno. She then stepped up and won the grade I Oak Leaf Stakes, ran third beaten three quarters of a length in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and won the Hollywood Starlet Stakes.
At three, she appears to be even better. In the grade I Las Virgenes, she closed off of a slow pace to win by a nose, and then ran third, beaten a half length, in the Santa Anita Oaks despite running into traffic problems. She then shipped to Oaklawn Park for the Fantasy Stakes and won by two and a half lengths while leaving some pretty good horses in her dust. She has been training very well out in California and looks ready to take her spot on the list of Kentucky Oaks winners. She will be ridden by regular rider Rafael Bejarano and is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer.
Now we come to the six horse, the 15-1 shot Beautician. The daughter of Dehere has only won once in eight starts, but has finished second four times. It's hard to say what her best performance has been, but it's hard to overlook running second to She Be Wild, beaten three quarter of a length, in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. In that race, she actually out fought Blind Luck to the wire, ending up a desperate head in front of the favorite after being passed by her in the stretch. But in her three starts since then, she has shown little to nothing. She was eased up while finishing last of seven in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes last December, then ran second beaten two and a half lengths by No Such Word, who ran third of four in the Fantasy Stakes behind Blind Luck. Then she ran last of eight in the Ashland Stakes, beaten nearly sixteen lengths. But she has been training fairly well at Churchill Downs and might just surprise a few people and run well. He will be ridden by Alex Solid and is trained by K. McPeek.
This brings us to the co-second choice Crisp. The daughter of El Corredor's biggest win came in last month's Santa Anita Oaks, where she won by a hard fought neck while just holding off the charge of Blind Luck. Prior to that, she had run fourth in the Las Virgenes, but had won the Santa Ysabel and a Maiden Special Weight race. As much as I like Blind Luck, I feel that Crisp can challenge her. However, she has not raced in eight weeks. This could be good and it could be bad. But it is the longest layoff of her short career. At 8-1, she can pull the upset, especially considering how well she has been training. She will be ridden by Joel Rosario and is trained by John Sadler.
Then there is Tidal Pool. One of the co-second choices at 8-1, the daughter of Yankee Gentleman comes into the Kentucky Oaks off of a runner up performance, beaten two and a half lengths lengths, in the Fantasy Stakes behind Blind Luck. However, she has a fearsome secret weapon that she can use to help turn the tables --- Calvin Borel, the jockey who has won two of the last three Kentucky Derbies, finished third in between the two wins, and won last year's Kentucky Oaks. If any jockey can pull the upset on sheer riding ability and knowing the track, it is Calvin. Getting back to the filly, Tidal Pool has never won a stakes race, but has hit the board in them a couple of times. Prior to the Fantasy, she won an allowance race at Oaklawn Park by eight lengths. She is trained by D. Wayne Lukas, and who knows? Perhaps Lukas can sweep the Oaks with Tidal Pool and the Derby with Dublin! Wouldn't that be cool!
Anyway, this brings us to the nine horse, Bella Diamante. The daughter of Lost Soldier's biggest performance came in last year's Delta Princess, where she just held off Joanie's Catch for the second spot, seven and three quarter lengths behind victorious Quiet Temper. She has also finished second in two other stakes races, and has been training rather well at Churchill Downs. Despite the fact that she is 30-1 on the morning line, she could be in contention for at least third. She will be ridden by Mike Smith and is trained by A. Milligan.
Now we come to the ten horse, the 30-1 shot Champagne d'Oro. The daughter of Medaglia d'Oro seems to be improving rapidly this year, after a less than stellar two year old campaign that saw her win no races and run last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. This year, she has made two starts, breaking her maiden in a Maiden Special Weight race and running second to Quiet Temper, beaten a half length, in the Fair Grounds Oaks. Once again, this is a filly who could run way better than her odds say she will and this filly could get a piece of the pie. She will be ridden by Martin Garcia and is trained by E. Guillot.
Coming down to the final few fillies, we come to the number eleven horse Evening Jewel. The daughter of Northern Afleet has really done quite well this year, finishing second, beaten a nose, in the Las Virgenes behind Blind Luck and winning the Ashland Stakes by a neck over It's Tea Time. This filly seems to be very adaptable, and I would not be surprised at all if she was to win. However, gate eleven isn't the greatest post position, as she will have to fight to not get caught wide on the turns, but she looks ready for an excellent performance. She could very well improve on dirt, and at 10-1 she could pull a surprising upset. She will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux and is trained by J Cassidy.
Then there is the number twelve horse, the 15-1 shot Ailalea. The daughter of Pulpit has been racing rather poorly lately, but did win the grade III Tempted Stakes last November. In her last start, the Fair Ground Oaks, she ran sixth as the 4-1 second choice. But in that race, she had a very wide trip and was only beaten five and a quarter lengths for the win. With John Velasquez in the saddle, and with Todd Pletcher as the trainer, I can see this filly running huge.
This brings us to the number thirteen horse Amen Hallelujah. The daughter of Montbrook has been quite impressively as of late, winning the Santa Ynez and Davona Dale Stakes before running second, beaten two and three quarter lengths, by Devil May Care, the filly who is taking on the colts in the Kentucky Derby. She has shown great talent, but doesn't seem to be quite as good as Blind Luck, considering that Blind Luck absolutely destroyed her in the Hollywood Starlet Stakes. But perhaps Amen Hallelujah just doesn't care for synthetic tracks. Anyway, she is 8-1 on the morning line and will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. She is trained by Richard Dutrow.
Finally, we come to the fourteenth and final entry Joanie's Catch. The daughter of First Tour is 30-1 on the morning line, but she is my longshot horse. Despite the fact that she has only won two races from eighteen starts, she has finished in the top three sixteen times. In her last ten starts, she has never failed to finish in the top three. Why can't she do it again here? She has been facing some very good company, and who knows what might happen at a mile and an eighth in a fourteen horse field. The filly can pull the upset, or at the very least hit the board. She will be ridden by P. Lopez and is trained by B. Rose.
So here are my selections for the Kentucky Oaks. . .
1 Blind Luck
2 Crisp
3 It's Tea Time
4 Evening Jewel
5 Jody Slew
6 Tidal Pool
7 Quiet Temper
8 Joanie's Catch
9 Amen Hallelujah
10 Ailalea
11 Champagne d'Oro
12 Age of Humor
13 Beautician
14 Bella Diamante
There is no way I'm going to pick against Blind Luck. She is the deserving favorite and barring anything unusual, should win by daylight. Crisp has been racing extremely well, and I think that she will take to the dirt just fine. I feel that It's Tea Time is going to be flying late, but not quite as strongly as Blind Luck. Evening Jewel has a big chance, as does Tidal Pool. When I originally handicapped this race, I had Tidal Pool to run second, but changed my mind and dropped her down to sixth. I hope I did the right thing. I expect Jody Slew to rebound well, but I just don't think that Amen Hallelujah is going to be able to hand on, breaking from gate thirteen and trying to go to the front. We'll see what happens. I could be wrong, but that's what I think.
Those are my final thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks. I can't wait!
AFTER THE KENTUCKY OAKS --- RACE TWELVE
Now, despite the fact that the Kentucky Oaks is the big race of the day, it is not the final race of the day. After the Kentucky Oaks is a six furlong Maiden Special Weight race for fillies and mares three year olds and upward which have never won a race.
The morning line favorite is Ready to Sing, a three year old filly who will be ridden by Julien Leparoux. But in my opinion, the unraced three year old Awesome Temper is the one to beat. 8-1 on the morning line, she has been training well and looks ready to run.
Go Pro also looks ready to run, as does Wyn Jym.
Here are my selections. . .
1 Awesome Temper
2 Bialy
3 Ready to Sing
4 Go Pro
5 Ash Zee
6 Wyn Jym
7 Lil' Moor Dixie
8 Hottie Dancer
9 Derby Lane's Song
10 Slews Sassy
11 Maria Darlin
And that completes my handicapping of the Kentucky Oaks and undercard. May the best horses win! Tomorrow, I will post my picks for the Kentucky Derby. But for now, enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
Friday, April 30, 2010
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- APRIL 28th, 2010
Only a couple of days left before the Kentucky Derby and the Oaks. A lot of stuff is going to be happening between now and then. And unfortunately, a lot of bad things happened during the last couple of days.
To begin, I will mention that Eskendereya and Rule are out of the Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya, the Derby favorite, came down with a filling in his left front leg and had to scratch. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, is very disappointed.
And just when Todd Pletcher needed some good news, he got the opposite. Rule was having training difficulties at Churchill Downs, and Todd and the owners of Rule decided not to run him.
But on the other hand, Todd Pletcher and the owners of top class filly Devil May Care have announced that they intend to run her in the Kentucky Derby. She'll do her best to fill the hole left by Eskendereya and Rule, but that is a pretty big hole to fill. Fortunately, she seems to have great talent and should be able to run a great race on Saturday.
Of course, no matter how terrible things seem, something good always comes from them. Even though scratching Eskendereya and Rule doesn't help Pletcher, it does help Nick Zito, who will now be able to run the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial runner up Jackson Bend in the Derby. Jackson Bend was sitting 21st on the graded earnings list before it was announced that Devil May Care might run, dropping him down to the 22nd spot. But the defections of Eskendereya and Rule moved him into the 20th spot, getting him into the Derby. This is good news in many ways, for he fully deserves to run in the Derby and has a good shot at hitting the board.
But now let's move on to some slightly more pleasant subjects, such as the results from last Saturday. We'll begin with the grade III The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes, of which there were two scratches, Privilaged and Soaring Empire.
The one mile race at Churchill Downs looked as though it might turn out a Derby contender for once. The connections of two of the runners, Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince, had announced that should their colt win the Derby Trial, they would send him on to the Kentucky Derby.
But as it turned out, it didn't matter. Neither of the colts won the Derby Trial, as it was Hurricane Ike under Calvin Borel who came up the rail to win the Derby Trial by an easy two and three quarter lengths. Aikenite, who is actually rich enough to run in the Derby if his connections felt he should, rallied for second but could not challenge the winner. Pleasant Prince came late for third. Eightfiveinafifty, the heavy favorite, set the pace but had nothing left when challenged by Hurricane Ike after three quarters of a mile. The final time was 1:36 1/5. It was Calvin Borel's fifth win of the day from eight mounts. Not bad.
So here are the results. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
4 Eightyfiveinafifty
5 Game On Dude
6 Wow Wow Wow
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
. . . versus my selections.
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
5 Miner's Reserve
6 Game On Dude
7 Wow Wow Wow
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
Except for Eightfiveinafifty, I was pretty close. I can't begin to describe how excited I was when Hurricane Ike won, because I had so nearly gone with Eightyfiveinafifty but decided that Hurricane Ike was the best horse under those conditions. But I was even more excited when the results of the Withers Stakes were in.
I gave the Withers a lot of thought. I knew that D' Funnybone was the heavy and deserving favorite, but I felt that at this distance he was vulnerable. So I started looking for a longshot to be my pick. I thought a long time about using Ibboyee, but I knew that he might have a few distance issues as well. And he was going to be well bet. I felt pretty sure that a longshot was going to win.
I thought about picking Castaneda. He seemed to have some decent speed, and maybe he could shake of D' Funnybone and win the race easily. I doubted it.
I thought about picking Most Happy Fella. The colt had set the pace in the Wood Memorial before fading to finish last. Fortunately, I didn't pick him. He ended up scratching.
I thought about picking Spangled Star. He would be the longshot, but he would be carrying six pounds less than D' Funnybone. But I decided not to pick him for various reasons.
So that left me with Afleet Again. I have followed the colt since before the Whirlaway Stakes and he was actually my pick for the Gotham, where he finished last of ten. But I felt with only 116 pounds on his back in the Withers, he would have a shot, even with his 20-1 morning line odds.
Afleet Again won the Withers at 25-1 going away.
I was so pleased that he had won that I couldn't calm down for the rest of the evening. All I could think was, "I picked the winners of the Derby Trial AND the Withers!"
Of course, Afleet Again had a perfect pace scenario. Breaking alertly, he raced up to sit just off the leader Castaneda through an opening quarter mile fraction of :21 3/5. D' Funnybone, meanwhile, was in trouble. He had broken a bit slowly and got into trouble within the first quarter of a mile. He had to steady sharply and drop back a bit. Then he made his run on the outside to join Castaneda through fractions of :43 4/5 and 1:07 2/5. Afleet Again, meanwhile, had dropped back a bit and was four lengths behind with only a quarter of a mile to go. That was when he made his move.
Swinging five wide, he made a bold move after the leaders. D' Funnybone and Castaneda, after setting the blazing fractions, could find no more. In the mean time, Ibboyee had opened up a clear lead as they came down to the final eighth. But Afleet Again proved to much for him, and drew off to a length and a half victory, getting the mile in 1:34 flat. Ibboyee held second, four and a quarter lengths in front of Spangled Star, who made a late run to pass the tiring pace setters. D' Funnybone ended up fourth, ten and three quarter lengths in front of Castaneda.
So anyway, congratulations to Afleet Again and his connections! I will remember this race fondly for many years.
Then there was an allowance race at Lone Star Park. I don't think that it is going to turn out a Triple Crown race winner, but it's still worth noting.
The favorite was Random Move, at odds of 1.90-1. Guilty Plea was also well bet at 3-1, and Productive Envoy was 5-1. My pick was Productive Envoy.
The race was fairly uneventful, although there was a little bit of bumping in the early going. Two Ex, an 8-1 shot, set the pace, followed closely by Guilty Plea. Productive Envoy sat right behind them while Random Move was far back.
On the far turn, Two Ex gave way, leaving Guilty Plea the leader. But Productive Envoy was moving and took the lead in the stretch. He managed to hold off 15-1 Shoot it's War for the win, with Guilty Plea back in third, beaten less than two lengths. Random Move rallied for fourth.
Then there was the six furlong Land of Lincoln Stakes at Hawthorne. For three year old Texas breds, it drew a field of nine highlighted by Royal Express. The second choice was Cap'n Nick, followed by Big Looie and Devient Behavior. I liked Windy City Cat.
Except for some bumping at the start, the race was pretty controlled. Royal Express broke fastest and set the pace for about half the race before being overtaken by Big Looie. Big Looie then pulled away to lead by a length and a half at the eighth pole, but had to dig in to hold off a fast closing 16-1 Seguro. 20-1 A J's Mountain finished third, with Star of Paradise fourth. Then came Royal Express and Windy City Cat, the latter whom completely failed to menace.
Another race of note was the mile and a sixteenth Melair Stakes at Hollywood Park. For three year old fillies, the heavy favorite was La Nez. She was also my pick. Camille C was sent off as the 3-1 second choice.
As it turned out, La Nez never really threatened. She raced fifth for much of the race before making an outside bid to draw within a half length of Camille C, who had led from the start. But she was unable to sustain her rally, and ended up third, beaten nine and three quarter lengths by the winner. Salty Fries at 5-1 rallied for second, with Costanta fourth.
Finally, there was the mile and a sixteenth Island Whirl Florida Thoroughbred Charities Stakes for three year olds and upward. The favorite was Bim Bam, a three year old colt who had defeated Triple Crown prospect Interactif in the Hallandale Beach Stakes when the latter was making his 2010 debut. In his next start, however, he finished fifth behind eventual Blue Grass Stakes runner up Paddy O'Prado in the grade III Palm Beach Stakes. The second choice at 3-1 was Roman Tiger, a five year old gelded son of Tiger Ridge. He was also my pick.
Although Bim Bam came very close to winning another race, he just couldn't quite get it done. Racing fourth for the first half mile. he began to inch up on the leaders and made a good bid for the lead, but Roman Tiger blew past him on his way to a two and three quarter length victory. Bim Bam held second by a neck over Sincero.
And now, I am almost done. But there is still one more thing left to do. I must reveal the mystery horse.
THE MYSTERY HORSE REVEALED
I know I said that I was going to announced this colts identity on Thursday, but now that the field has been drawn, I feel now is as good a time as any. So, with a drumroll, I shall announce the mystery colt. . .
Drumroll . . .
Anxiously awaiting . . .
Opening the envelope . . .
And the mystery colt is . . .
HOMEBOYKRIS!
I know that many of you will be shocked into silence by this news, but I truly think that Homeboykris has a fighting chance. Yes, he drew gate 19, and yes he has done absolutely nothing of note since winning the Champagne Stakes last October, but I feel that he is sitting on the race of his life and could spoil a lot of superfectas. Here are five reasons to like him:
1. He will be ridden by top jockey Ramon Dominguez.
2. He is trained by Rick Dutrow, who has won the Derby before with Big Brown.
3. He has not raced since February 27th. He is certainly going to be fresh.
4. He is training well at Churchill Downs
5. He probably won't run into any traffic, as he will be breaking from gate 19.
Now, are you convinced that Homeboykris is going to win the Kentucky Derby? Okay, I didn't give any great reasons to put lots of money on him, but the fact is I just have this feeling that he is not a throw out horse. I won't be throwing him out of the mix, and will be considering him a legitimate contender. Hey, I like him better than Discreetly Mine!
And that's it for now. I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks, and on Oaks Day I will post my selections for the Kentucky Derby. I will also briefly discuss Rachel Alexandra in the La Troienne Stakes as well as the rest of the Kentucky Derby and Oaks undercards. And don't forget that on Derby Day I will be live on my blog updating as post time draws nearer. I'll be discussing how they look in the post parade, if anybody is acting up, and how I feel overall about everything.
Two days left until Derby Day. . . this is so much fun!
-Keelerman
To begin, I will mention that Eskendereya and Rule are out of the Kentucky Derby. Eskendereya, the Derby favorite, came down with a filling in his left front leg and had to scratch. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, is very disappointed.
And just when Todd Pletcher needed some good news, he got the opposite. Rule was having training difficulties at Churchill Downs, and Todd and the owners of Rule decided not to run him.
But on the other hand, Todd Pletcher and the owners of top class filly Devil May Care have announced that they intend to run her in the Kentucky Derby. She'll do her best to fill the hole left by Eskendereya and Rule, but that is a pretty big hole to fill. Fortunately, she seems to have great talent and should be able to run a great race on Saturday.
Of course, no matter how terrible things seem, something good always comes from them. Even though scratching Eskendereya and Rule doesn't help Pletcher, it does help Nick Zito, who will now be able to run the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial runner up Jackson Bend in the Derby. Jackson Bend was sitting 21st on the graded earnings list before it was announced that Devil May Care might run, dropping him down to the 22nd spot. But the defections of Eskendereya and Rule moved him into the 20th spot, getting him into the Derby. This is good news in many ways, for he fully deserves to run in the Derby and has a good shot at hitting the board.
But now let's move on to some slightly more pleasant subjects, such as the results from last Saturday. We'll begin with the grade III The Cliff's Edge Derby Trial Stakes, of which there were two scratches, Privilaged and Soaring Empire.
The one mile race at Churchill Downs looked as though it might turn out a Derby contender for once. The connections of two of the runners, Eightyfiveinafifty and Pleasant Prince, had announced that should their colt win the Derby Trial, they would send him on to the Kentucky Derby.
But as it turned out, it didn't matter. Neither of the colts won the Derby Trial, as it was Hurricane Ike under Calvin Borel who came up the rail to win the Derby Trial by an easy two and three quarter lengths. Aikenite, who is actually rich enough to run in the Derby if his connections felt he should, rallied for second but could not challenge the winner. Pleasant Prince came late for third. Eightfiveinafifty, the heavy favorite, set the pace but had nothing left when challenged by Hurricane Ike after three quarters of a mile. The final time was 1:36 1/5. It was Calvin Borel's fifth win of the day from eight mounts. Not bad.
So here are the results. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
4 Eightyfiveinafifty
5 Game On Dude
6 Wow Wow Wow
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
. . . versus my selections.
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Aikenite
3 Pleasant Prince
5 Miner's Reserve
6 Game On Dude
7 Wow Wow Wow
8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
Except for Eightfiveinafifty, I was pretty close. I can't begin to describe how excited I was when Hurricane Ike won, because I had so nearly gone with Eightyfiveinafifty but decided that Hurricane Ike was the best horse under those conditions. But I was even more excited when the results of the Withers Stakes were in.
I gave the Withers a lot of thought. I knew that D' Funnybone was the heavy and deserving favorite, but I felt that at this distance he was vulnerable. So I started looking for a longshot to be my pick. I thought a long time about using Ibboyee, but I knew that he might have a few distance issues as well. And he was going to be well bet. I felt pretty sure that a longshot was going to win.
I thought about picking Castaneda. He seemed to have some decent speed, and maybe he could shake of D' Funnybone and win the race easily. I doubted it.
I thought about picking Most Happy Fella. The colt had set the pace in the Wood Memorial before fading to finish last. Fortunately, I didn't pick him. He ended up scratching.
I thought about picking Spangled Star. He would be the longshot, but he would be carrying six pounds less than D' Funnybone. But I decided not to pick him for various reasons.
So that left me with Afleet Again. I have followed the colt since before the Whirlaway Stakes and he was actually my pick for the Gotham, where he finished last of ten. But I felt with only 116 pounds on his back in the Withers, he would have a shot, even with his 20-1 morning line odds.
Afleet Again won the Withers at 25-1 going away.
I was so pleased that he had won that I couldn't calm down for the rest of the evening. All I could think was, "I picked the winners of the Derby Trial AND the Withers!"
Of course, Afleet Again had a perfect pace scenario. Breaking alertly, he raced up to sit just off the leader Castaneda through an opening quarter mile fraction of :21 3/5. D' Funnybone, meanwhile, was in trouble. He had broken a bit slowly and got into trouble within the first quarter of a mile. He had to steady sharply and drop back a bit. Then he made his run on the outside to join Castaneda through fractions of :43 4/5 and 1:07 2/5. Afleet Again, meanwhile, had dropped back a bit and was four lengths behind with only a quarter of a mile to go. That was when he made his move.
Swinging five wide, he made a bold move after the leaders. D' Funnybone and Castaneda, after setting the blazing fractions, could find no more. In the mean time, Ibboyee had opened up a clear lead as they came down to the final eighth. But Afleet Again proved to much for him, and drew off to a length and a half victory, getting the mile in 1:34 flat. Ibboyee held second, four and a quarter lengths in front of Spangled Star, who made a late run to pass the tiring pace setters. D' Funnybone ended up fourth, ten and three quarter lengths in front of Castaneda.
So anyway, congratulations to Afleet Again and his connections! I will remember this race fondly for many years.
Then there was an allowance race at Lone Star Park. I don't think that it is going to turn out a Triple Crown race winner, but it's still worth noting.
The favorite was Random Move, at odds of 1.90-1. Guilty Plea was also well bet at 3-1, and Productive Envoy was 5-1. My pick was Productive Envoy.
The race was fairly uneventful, although there was a little bit of bumping in the early going. Two Ex, an 8-1 shot, set the pace, followed closely by Guilty Plea. Productive Envoy sat right behind them while Random Move was far back.
On the far turn, Two Ex gave way, leaving Guilty Plea the leader. But Productive Envoy was moving and took the lead in the stretch. He managed to hold off 15-1 Shoot it's War for the win, with Guilty Plea back in third, beaten less than two lengths. Random Move rallied for fourth.
Then there was the six furlong Land of Lincoln Stakes at Hawthorne. For three year old Texas breds, it drew a field of nine highlighted by Royal Express. The second choice was Cap'n Nick, followed by Big Looie and Devient Behavior. I liked Windy City Cat.
Except for some bumping at the start, the race was pretty controlled. Royal Express broke fastest and set the pace for about half the race before being overtaken by Big Looie. Big Looie then pulled away to lead by a length and a half at the eighth pole, but had to dig in to hold off a fast closing 16-1 Seguro. 20-1 A J's Mountain finished third, with Star of Paradise fourth. Then came Royal Express and Windy City Cat, the latter whom completely failed to menace.
Another race of note was the mile and a sixteenth Melair Stakes at Hollywood Park. For three year old fillies, the heavy favorite was La Nez. She was also my pick. Camille C was sent off as the 3-1 second choice.
As it turned out, La Nez never really threatened. She raced fifth for much of the race before making an outside bid to draw within a half length of Camille C, who had led from the start. But she was unable to sustain her rally, and ended up third, beaten nine and three quarter lengths by the winner. Salty Fries at 5-1 rallied for second, with Costanta fourth.
Finally, there was the mile and a sixteenth Island Whirl Florida Thoroughbred Charities Stakes for three year olds and upward. The favorite was Bim Bam, a three year old colt who had defeated Triple Crown prospect Interactif in the Hallandale Beach Stakes when the latter was making his 2010 debut. In his next start, however, he finished fifth behind eventual Blue Grass Stakes runner up Paddy O'Prado in the grade III Palm Beach Stakes. The second choice at 3-1 was Roman Tiger, a five year old gelded son of Tiger Ridge. He was also my pick.
Although Bim Bam came very close to winning another race, he just couldn't quite get it done. Racing fourth for the first half mile. he began to inch up on the leaders and made a good bid for the lead, but Roman Tiger blew past him on his way to a two and three quarter length victory. Bim Bam held second by a neck over Sincero.
And now, I am almost done. But there is still one more thing left to do. I must reveal the mystery horse.
THE MYSTERY HORSE REVEALED
I know I said that I was going to announced this colts identity on Thursday, but now that the field has been drawn, I feel now is as good a time as any. So, with a drumroll, I shall announce the mystery colt. . .
Drumroll . . .
Anxiously awaiting . . .
Opening the envelope . . .
And the mystery colt is . . .
HOMEBOYKRIS!
I know that many of you will be shocked into silence by this news, but I truly think that Homeboykris has a fighting chance. Yes, he drew gate 19, and yes he has done absolutely nothing of note since winning the Champagne Stakes last October, but I feel that he is sitting on the race of his life and could spoil a lot of superfectas. Here are five reasons to like him:
1. He will be ridden by top jockey Ramon Dominguez.
2. He is trained by Rick Dutrow, who has won the Derby before with Big Brown.
3. He has not raced since February 27th. He is certainly going to be fresh.
4. He is training well at Churchill Downs
5. He probably won't run into any traffic, as he will be breaking from gate 19.
Now, are you convinced that Homeboykris is going to win the Kentucky Derby? Okay, I didn't give any great reasons to put lots of money on him, but the fact is I just have this feeling that he is not a throw out horse. I won't be throwing him out of the mix, and will be considering him a legitimate contender. Hey, I like him better than Discreetly Mine!
And that's it for now. I'll be back tomorrow with my thoughts on the Kentucky Oaks, and on Oaks Day I will post my selections for the Kentucky Derby. I will also briefly discuss Rachel Alexandra in the La Troienne Stakes as well as the rest of the Kentucky Derby and Oaks undercards. And don't forget that on Derby Day I will be live on my blog updating as post time draws nearer. I'll be discussing how they look in the post parade, if anybody is acting up, and how I feel overall about everything.
Two days left until Derby Day. . . this is so much fun!
-Keelerman
MY TOP TWENTY OVER THE MONTHS
With the Kentucky Derby just days away, I have decided to haul out my original Top Twenty Triple Crown Contenders and compare it to the last Top Twenty I did before the post position draw. I know, it is very shocking how different they look, but I would like to point out that Dublin has never been below fifth on my lists, and should he win the Kentucky Derby I will be unbelievably excited.
THE TWENTY ---- January 11th
1. BUDDY'S SAINT
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY
3. SUPER SAVER
4. JACKSON BEND
5. DUBLIN
6. AMERICAN LION
7. INTERACTIF
8. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK
9. PULSION
10. BRAKE LIGHTS
11. RULE
12. SASSY'S IMAGE
13. NOBLE'S PROMISE
14. VALE OF YORK
15. BLIND LUCK
16. WILLIAM'S KITTEN
17. THISKYHASNOLIMIT
18. D'FUNNYBONE
19. BACKTALK
20. CONNEMARA
THE TWENTY ---- April 23rd
1. DUBLIN
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY
3. SUPER SAVER
4. ESKENDEREYA
5. SIDNEY'S CANDY
6. ENDORSEMENT
7. AWESOME ACT
8. ICE BOX
9. RULE
10. LINE OF DAVID
11. CONVEYANCE
12. JACKSON BEND
13. MISSION IMPAZIBLE
14. HOMEBOYKRIS
15. STATELY VICTOR
16. AMERICAN LION
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE
18. PLEASANT PRINCE
19. DEVIL MAY CARE
20. EIGHTFIVEINAFIFTY
-Keelerman
THE TWENTY ---- January 11th
1. BUDDY'S SAINT
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY
3. SUPER SAVER
4. JACKSON BEND
5. DUBLIN
6. AMERICAN LION
7. INTERACTIF
8. TOUCH FOR A SHOCK
9. PULSION
10. BRAKE LIGHTS
11. RULE
12. SASSY'S IMAGE
13. NOBLE'S PROMISE
14. VALE OF YORK
15. BLIND LUCK
16. WILLIAM'S KITTEN
17. THISKYHASNOLIMIT
18. D'FUNNYBONE
19. BACKTALK
20. CONNEMARA
THE TWENTY ---- April 23rd
1. DUBLIN
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY
3. SUPER SAVER
4. ESKENDEREYA
5. SIDNEY'S CANDY
6. ENDORSEMENT
7. AWESOME ACT
8. ICE BOX
9. RULE
10. LINE OF DAVID
11. CONVEYANCE
12. JACKSON BEND
13. MISSION IMPAZIBLE
14. HOMEBOYKRIS
15. STATELY VICTOR
16. AMERICAN LION
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE
18. PLEASANT PRINCE
19. DEVIL MAY CARE
20. EIGHTFIVEINAFIFTY
-Keelerman
ANOTHER OPINION 2:
ANOTHER OPINION 2: WHAT ROSIE SEDGWICK THINKS OF THE TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL
With the Kentucky Derby less than three days away, I have decided to interview one more person to go along with Dan J's interview. So I have decided to talk to Rosie Sedgwick and get her opinions of the 2010 Triple Crown Trail.
Rosie has been following my blog for some time --- ever since it began. So here is the interview. The following are my questions, followed by her answers. Enjoy!
Q: What do you think of this year's crop overall?
A: This year's three year olds are more interesting, I think, than last year's. My particular favorites are Ice Box, Stately Victor, and Dublin. I guess I would say that this year's crop is very strong. It was so sad having three great horses --- Rule, Eskendereya, and Endorsement --- get scratched from the Derby.
Q: We haven't had a Triple Crown winner since 1978. Do you we will get one this year?
A: It's highly probable that we will. The horses, as I said above, are so powerful this year that there's almost no question as to whether they can pull off something spectacular. I am following the Derby Trail quite hopefully.
Q: What do you think of the current Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky?
A: Considering how he ran in the Santa Anita Derby, it's not very clear to me how this colt is going to run in the Kentucky Derby. I've always been fond of him, though, and I would definitely be on the "look"out for Lookin at Lucky during the race . . . !
Q: Do you think that Sidney's Candy is capable of winning the Derby?
A: Well, to be honest, I haven't really been thinking that much about Sidney's Candy. He's a great horse, and very capable of running a good race, I'm sure, but it's certainly going to be interesting to see how he runs among the other Derby runners.
Q: What do you think of the Blue Grass Stakes, the 2010 winner Stately Victor, and the runner up Paddy O'Prado?
A: I was very impressed with Paddy O'Prado's stunning performance at the Blue Grass Stakes, and I think that he could win the Derby without a lot of trouble. As for Stately Victor, I love him! He's such a fabulous horse; and because he's been working so well at Churchill Downs lately, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he won the Derby. Either of these horses have a fairly good shot at doing well.
Q: Are you concerned about the fact that Line of David, Super Saver, and Dublin crawled home in the Arkansas Derby?
A: I am a little, but perhaps Dublin will be able to pull off a better performance in the Kentucky Derby. I wouldn't give up on him at all . . . sometimes the quietest horses can surprise you. As for Line of David, I hadn't been considering him as a Derby contender until I saw the Arkansas. However, I don't believe that he will be able to win the race. He's good, but some others I've seen might be able to run a better race. And Super Saver---I like him quite a bit. I was surprised that he didn't do better in the Arkansas Derby, but, maybe it just wasn't his day. Like Dublin, I would definitely not exclude him from my top ten Derby picks. I'm not as sure about Line of David . . . We'll just have to wait and see.
Q: Any other three year olds who might just be capable of upsetting the Kentucky Derby?
A: Above all, Ice Box. I've heard a lot of great things about him lately (and his name is definitely a plus! It's so cute. :), and I would be more than satisfied if he won the Derby. Other than him, I don't think many others would be able to, except for Homeboykris---I think that he could upset the Kentucky Derby by a large margin, he's an incredible horse---and Mission Impazible. I am very impressed with Mission Impazible's workouts at Churchill Downs, and he sounds like a definite threat to many of the favorites.
Q: Do you think that Todd Pletcher will win his first Derby this year?
A: Mission Impazible might be able to pull off something huge this year, and so might Super Saver. I have a feeling that there's going to be an upset in this Kentucky Derby.
Q: Some have said that Lookin at Lucky doesn't have the stamina to go a mile and a quarter. What do you think?
A: As I said before, Lookin at Lucky could do anything. He's a powerful horse and I won't let anyone convince me otherwise. I think that he has enough stamina and more to win the Derby.
Q: What do you think of the filly Devil May Care running in the Derby?
A: I don't exactly know, but she looks promising.
Q: Last question. Who is your pick for the Kentucky Derby?
A: Stately Victor!
Thanks a lot, Rosie Sedgwick! We'll be interviewing you and Dan J again in a couple of days to get your final picks for the Kentucky Oaks, as well as your top five Derby horses. We'll also briefly discuss the La Troienne and the American Turf Stakes. It's going to be lots of fun!
2 days until Derby Day . . .
-Keelerman
With the Kentucky Derby less than three days away, I have decided to interview one more person to go along with Dan J's interview. So I have decided to talk to Rosie Sedgwick and get her opinions of the 2010 Triple Crown Trail.
Rosie has been following my blog for some time --- ever since it began. So here is the interview. The following are my questions, followed by her answers. Enjoy!
Q: What do you think of this year's crop overall?
A: This year's three year olds are more interesting, I think, than last year's. My particular favorites are Ice Box, Stately Victor, and Dublin. I guess I would say that this year's crop is very strong. It was so sad having three great horses --- Rule, Eskendereya, and Endorsement --- get scratched from the Derby.
Q: We haven't had a Triple Crown winner since 1978. Do you we will get one this year?
A: It's highly probable that we will. The horses, as I said above, are so powerful this year that there's almost no question as to whether they can pull off something spectacular. I am following the Derby Trail quite hopefully.
Q: What do you think of the current Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky?
A: Considering how he ran in the Santa Anita Derby, it's not very clear to me how this colt is going to run in the Kentucky Derby. I've always been fond of him, though, and I would definitely be on the "look"out for Lookin at Lucky during the race . . . !
Q: Do you think that Sidney's Candy is capable of winning the Derby?
A: Well, to be honest, I haven't really been thinking that much about Sidney's Candy. He's a great horse, and very capable of running a good race, I'm sure, but it's certainly going to be interesting to see how he runs among the other Derby runners.
Q: What do you think of the Blue Grass Stakes, the 2010 winner Stately Victor, and the runner up Paddy O'Prado?
A: I was very impressed with Paddy O'Prado's stunning performance at the Blue Grass Stakes, and I think that he could win the Derby without a lot of trouble. As for Stately Victor, I love him! He's such a fabulous horse; and because he's been working so well at Churchill Downs lately, I wouldn't be surprised at all if he won the Derby. Either of these horses have a fairly good shot at doing well.
Q: Are you concerned about the fact that Line of David, Super Saver, and Dublin crawled home in the Arkansas Derby?
A: I am a little, but perhaps Dublin will be able to pull off a better performance in the Kentucky Derby. I wouldn't give up on him at all . . . sometimes the quietest horses can surprise you. As for Line of David, I hadn't been considering him as a Derby contender until I saw the Arkansas. However, I don't believe that he will be able to win the race. He's good, but some others I've seen might be able to run a better race. And Super Saver---I like him quite a bit. I was surprised that he didn't do better in the Arkansas Derby, but, maybe it just wasn't his day. Like Dublin, I would definitely not exclude him from my top ten Derby picks. I'm not as sure about Line of David . . . We'll just have to wait and see.
Q: Any other three year olds who might just be capable of upsetting the Kentucky Derby?
A: Above all, Ice Box. I've heard a lot of great things about him lately (and his name is definitely a plus! It's so cute. :), and I would be more than satisfied if he won the Derby. Other than him, I don't think many others would be able to, except for Homeboykris---I think that he could upset the Kentucky Derby by a large margin, he's an incredible horse---and Mission Impazible. I am very impressed with Mission Impazible's workouts at Churchill Downs, and he sounds like a definite threat to many of the favorites.
Q: Do you think that Todd Pletcher will win his first Derby this year?
A: Mission Impazible might be able to pull off something huge this year, and so might Super Saver. I have a feeling that there's going to be an upset in this Kentucky Derby.
Q: Some have said that Lookin at Lucky doesn't have the stamina to go a mile and a quarter. What do you think?
A: As I said before, Lookin at Lucky could do anything. He's a powerful horse and I won't let anyone convince me otherwise. I think that he has enough stamina and more to win the Derby.
Q: What do you think of the filly Devil May Care running in the Derby?
A: I don't exactly know, but she looks promising.
Q: Last question. Who is your pick for the Kentucky Derby?
A: Stately Victor!
Thanks a lot, Rosie Sedgwick! We'll be interviewing you and Dan J again in a couple of days to get your final picks for the Kentucky Oaks, as well as your top five Derby horses. We'll also briefly discuss the La Troienne and the American Turf Stakes. It's going to be lots of fun!
2 days until Derby Day . . .
-Keelerman
THE EIGHT, for the KENTUCKY DERBY, as of April 28th, 2010
(Note: As I am nowhere near finished with handicapping the Kentucky Derby, I decided to shorten this list to only eight and warn you that it is only a loose draft of my final picks. This list may look very different the day before the Derby, but for now, you get the idea!)
1. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
Had another good workout at Churchill Downs. Despite the fact that he hasn't won since September, I'm believe that he is ready to run his best on Saturday. Drawing post seventeen isn't going to help him any, but perhaps it will force him to drop back early and come running late.
2. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
Post four is perhaps a little bit to close to the rail, but I'm sure that's where Calvin Borel wants him. It's obvious that this colt likes Churchill Downs and his final workout was excellent. I'm expecting big things from this colt.
3. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
He has been training so well at Churchill Downs that I nearly put him at the top of my list. But then he drew gate one and I decided to drop him to three. The one hole is not where he needs to be, and it may throw off any strategy Baffert and Gomez may have come up with, but he has proven time and time again that he can overcome traffic and still run well.
4. MISSION IMPAZIBLE Unbridled's Song - La Pez, by Hold Your Peace Todd Pletcher
From the first day I heard about this colt, I've been somewhat reluctant to get excited over him. He just hadn't impressed me. But when he arrived at Churchill Downs and started training beautifully, I became a fan. If the track is muddy on Derby day, this colt will be right there at the finish.
5. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
With Rule, Eskendereya, and Eightfiveinafifty out of Derby consideration, the pace scenario has just changed drastically. This colt is training in the shadow of Lookin at Lucky but has a big shot at winning the Kentucky Derby. He has so much speed that he may be gone before anyone can catch him.
6. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
The more I look at this colt, the better I like him. He is going to fire his best shot on Saturday. There is only one question left --- is he a cannon or a cap gun?
7. DEVIL MAY CARE Malibu Moon - Kelli's Ransom, by Red Ransom Todd Pletcher
After Todd Pletcher announced that he intends to enter her in the Kentucky Derby only, I had to move this filly up. She has some questions to answer, including the one about the six week layoff, but it's obvious that she is very talented and can hit the board in the Derby. Under the right conditions, I think that she can even win.
8. ICE BOX Pulpit - Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
Seems to be a bit overlooked, with Eskendereya, Rule, and Devil May Care filling the headlines, but really hasn't done anything wrong. A good post position and a fast pace will help him out.
-Keelerman
1. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
Had another good workout at Churchill Downs. Despite the fact that he hasn't won since September, I'm believe that he is ready to run his best on Saturday. Drawing post seventeen isn't going to help him any, but perhaps it will force him to drop back early and come running late.
2. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
Post four is perhaps a little bit to close to the rail, but I'm sure that's where Calvin Borel wants him. It's obvious that this colt likes Churchill Downs and his final workout was excellent. I'm expecting big things from this colt.
3. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
He has been training so well at Churchill Downs that I nearly put him at the top of my list. But then he drew gate one and I decided to drop him to three. The one hole is not where he needs to be, and it may throw off any strategy Baffert and Gomez may have come up with, but he has proven time and time again that he can overcome traffic and still run well.
4. MISSION IMPAZIBLE Unbridled's Song - La Pez, by Hold Your Peace Todd Pletcher
From the first day I heard about this colt, I've been somewhat reluctant to get excited over him. He just hadn't impressed me. But when he arrived at Churchill Downs and started training beautifully, I became a fan. If the track is muddy on Derby day, this colt will be right there at the finish.
5. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
With Rule, Eskendereya, and Eightfiveinafifty out of Derby consideration, the pace scenario has just changed drastically. This colt is training in the shadow of Lookin at Lucky but has a big shot at winning the Kentucky Derby. He has so much speed that he may be gone before anyone can catch him.
6. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
The more I look at this colt, the better I like him. He is going to fire his best shot on Saturday. There is only one question left --- is he a cannon or a cap gun?
7. DEVIL MAY CARE Malibu Moon - Kelli's Ransom, by Red Ransom Todd Pletcher
After Todd Pletcher announced that he intends to enter her in the Kentucky Derby only, I had to move this filly up. She has some questions to answer, including the one about the six week layoff, but it's obvious that she is very talented and can hit the board in the Derby. Under the right conditions, I think that she can even win.
8. ICE BOX Pulpit - Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
Seems to be a bit overlooked, with Eskendereya, Rule, and Devil May Care filling the headlines, but really hasn't done anything wrong. A good post position and a fast pace will help him out.
-Keelerman
Saturday, April 24, 2010
THE TWENTY, for the KENTUCKY DERBY, as of April 23rd, 2010
(Note: Due to the fact that the Kentucky Derby is only a week away, I have decided to turn "The Twenty" into "The Twenty for the Kentucky Derby". When the Kentucky Derby is over, it will turn into "The Fourteen for the Preakness", and when the Preakness is over, "The Fourteen for the Belmont".
1. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
Worked a bullet five furlongs the other day and seems to like Churchill Downs. He will not be the favorite in May, but I'm going to stick with this colt.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
He is training beautifully at Churchill Downs and may be peaking at the right time. He is one of the few colts who has proven that he can overcome serious traffic and still run well.
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
He is certainly going to be fit and ready for the Derby. And with Calvin Borel on his back, he will likely get a perfect trip. I imagine that everybody expects this colt to be on the lead, but I think he is capable of sitting off the pace.
4. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
There's something about this colt that bothers me. He hasn't really been challenged. He hasn't proven himself in a tough, rough race. He may be in over his head in the Derby, not because he lacks experience, but because he hasn't faced trouble lately.
5. SIDNEY'S CANDY Candy Ride - Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat John W. Sadler
I suddenly got to thinking about this colt and realized that he seems to stumble out of the gate rather frequently. If he stumbles out of the gate on Derby day, he may never recover. Unless, of course, he is a super horse.
6. ENDORSEMENT Distorted Humor - Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy Shannon Ritter
If any inexperienced colt is going to win the Derby it will likely be this one. He has been very impressive so far, and might just have what it takes to win the Derby.
7. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
He took to Churchill Downs quite well in training, but I'm just not sure if he is talented enough. But I do think he is sitting on a big race and is ready to fire his best shot on Derby day.
8. ICE BOX Pulpit - Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
Worked a rocket half mile in the slop at Churchill Downs. It was a brilliant workout, but was it too fast? I'm concerned that it may have taken too much out of this colt. But if it didn't, and that was just a routine workout. . .
9. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
Everyone expects the pace in the Kentucky Derby to be super fast, but what if that doesn't happen? What if everybody takes their horses back to avoid the insane pace and one horse is left on the lead with no on pushing him? If that were to happen, I would go with Rule to wire the race.
10. LINE OF DAVID Lion Heart - Emma's Dilemma, by Capote John W. Sadler
Let's see here, undefeated while wearing blinkers, undefeated on dirt and turf, he's got courage, he wouldn't let Super Saver and Dublin past him, and he can set quick fractions. Just think what this colt might do if he ran even a half second slower in the Derby than he did in Arkansas!
11. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
Everything that I just said about Rule goes for Conveyance too. He is very fast, and is training very well at Churchill Downs, and if the insane pace doesn't happen, this colt could go wire-to-wire.
12. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
How can you not like this colt? He gives everything he has in every race, and if it weren’t for Eskendereya, than he would be the Fountain of Youth/Wood Memorial winner. If it weren’t for Eskendereya, this colt might be favored for the Derby! He tries so hard that I'm not really concerned about his apparent stamina limitations. He can do this.
13. MISSION IMPAZIBLE Unbridled's Song - La Pez, by Hold Your Peace Todd Pletcher
A lot of people have been trashing the Louisiana Derby, saying that the horses running were no good. The same thing was being said about the 2005 Santa Anita Derby, but that race provided four of the top six finishers in that year's Kentucky Derby, including Giacomo. Don't throw out Mission Impazible yet!
14. THE MYSTERY HORSE ??? - ???, by ??? ???
Say hello to the mystery horse, the colt whose identity won't be revealed until Thursday. Obviously, you can narrow it down to a few horses, as most of the Derby contenders are in the Top Twenty, but I will reveal that he is one of the horses on the "Watch Very Closely" list.
15. STATELY VICTOR Ghostzapper - Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer Micheal Maker
This colt looked incredible while winning the Blue Grass, and he has been training well at Churchill, but I must be careful with Blue Grass winners. All together too often they look unstoppable but manage to stop in the Derby.
16. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
I have loved this colt since his win in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, but he just hasn't shown the ability to win the Kentucky Derby. Still, there's something about him that interests me and I just can't drop him off my list until I discover what it is.
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
Had a really good workout at Churchill Downs, but nobody knows if he is going to the Derby or not. Until they announce that he will run, I'm going to keep him down here.
18. PLEASANT PRINCE Indy King - Archduchess, by Wesley Ward
Obviously, the runner up in the Florida Derby deserves to run in the Kentucky Derby, but he is still not in. He gets his final prep in the Derby Trial, and if he wins, he will run in the Derby. But will he be too tired? Until he is actually in the Derby, I'm going to keep him down here.
19. DEVIL MAY CARE Malibu Moon - Kelli's Ransom, by Red Ransom Todd Pletcher
Now that she is being considered for the Derby, I'm going to have to include her in my Top Twenty. If you can believe it, she won the nine furlong Bonnie Miss Stakes, on the undercard of the Florida Derby, in a faster time than Ice Box won the big one! This filly may just be a major contender. With the success of Rags to Riches and Rachel Alexandra, who knows what might happen? But until she is actually entered in the Derby, I'm going to keep her right here.
20. EIGHTFIVEINAFIFTY Forest Camp - Lifeinthefastlane, by Unbridled's Song Gary Contessa
I never though I would see this colt listed as a possible starter in the Kentucky Derby. I don't think that he has a chance, but then again, we don't know how far he can carry his speed. Also, he has been setting such fast fractions in his sprint races that a 1:09 4/5 for three quarters of a mile in the Derby would be a workout.
WATCH VERY CLOSELY
BACKTALK Not sure if he's going to get in.
DEAN'S KITTEN Training well at Churchill.
DISCREETLY MINE Not crying for distance.
HOMEBOYKRIS Has not raced since February 27th.
INTERACTIF May not run in the Derby.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Not sure if he's going to get in.
AIKENITE Will run in the Derby Trial, probably won't run in the Derby.
GAME ON DUDE Will run in the Derby Trial, doesn't have the graded earnings.
PADDY O'PRADO Nice run in the Blue Grass, training well at Churchill.
SOARING EMPIRE Will run in the Derby Trial, doesn't have the graded earnings.
Now, I suppose you're all wondering why Blind Luck isn't on the list anymore. Well, I can't include her because she's going to run in the Oaks. But if her connections decide to run her in the Derby, I will put her back on. And I will put her in the top five.
-Keelerman
1. DUBLIN Afleet Alex - Classy Mirage, by Storm Bird D. Wayne Lukas
Worked a bullet five furlongs the other day and seems to like Churchill Downs. He will not be the favorite in May, but I'm going to stick with this colt.
2. LOOKIN AT LUCKY Smart Strike - Private Feeling, by Belong to Me Bob Baffert
He is training beautifully at Churchill Downs and may be peaking at the right time. He is one of the few colts who has proven that he can overcome serious traffic and still run well.
3. SUPER SAVER Maria's Mon - Super Charger, by A.P. Indy Todd Pletcher
He is certainly going to be fit and ready for the Derby. And with Calvin Borel on his back, he will likely get a perfect trip. I imagine that everybody expects this colt to be on the lead, but I think he is capable of sitting off the pace.
4. ESKENDEREYA Giant's Causeway - Alderbaran Light, by Seattle Slew Todd Pletcher
There's something about this colt that bothers me. He hasn't really been challenged. He hasn't proven himself in a tough, rough race. He may be in over his head in the Derby, not because he lacks experience, but because he hasn't faced trouble lately.
5. SIDNEY'S CANDY Candy Ride - Fair Exchange, by Storm Cat John W. Sadler
I suddenly got to thinking about this colt and realized that he seems to stumble out of the gate rather frequently. If he stumbles out of the gate on Derby day, he may never recover. Unless, of course, he is a super horse.
6. ENDORSEMENT Distorted Humor - Charmed Gift, by A.P. Indy Shannon Ritter
If any inexperienced colt is going to win the Derby it will likely be this one. He has been very impressive so far, and might just have what it takes to win the Derby.
7. AWESOME ACT Awesome Again - Houdini's Honey, by Mr. Prospector Jeremy Noseda
He took to Churchill Downs quite well in training, but I'm just not sure if he is talented enough. But I do think he is sitting on a big race and is ready to fire his best shot on Derby day.
8. ICE BOX Pulpit - Spice Island, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
Worked a rocket half mile in the slop at Churchill Downs. It was a brilliant workout, but was it too fast? I'm concerned that it may have taken too much out of this colt. But if it didn't, and that was just a routine workout. . .
9. RULE Roman Ruler - Personal Flag, by Rockcide Todd Pletcher
Everyone expects the pace in the Kentucky Derby to be super fast, but what if that doesn't happen? What if everybody takes their horses back to avoid the insane pace and one horse is left on the lead with no on pushing him? If that were to happen, I would go with Rule to wire the race.
10. LINE OF DAVID Lion Heart - Emma's Dilemma, by Capote John W. Sadler
Let's see here, undefeated while wearing blinkers, undefeated on dirt and turf, he's got courage, he wouldn't let Super Saver and Dublin past him, and he can set quick fractions. Just think what this colt might do if he ran even a half second slower in the Derby than he did in Arkansas!
11. CONVEYANCE Indian Charlie - Emptythetill, by Holy Bull Bob Baffert
Everything that I just said about Rule goes for Conveyance too. He is very fast, and is training very well at Churchill Downs, and if the insane pace doesn't happen, this colt could go wire-to-wire.
12. JACKSON BEND Hear No Evil - Sexy Stockings, by Tabasco Cat Nick Zito
How can you not like this colt? He gives everything he has in every race, and if it weren’t for Eskendereya, than he would be the Fountain of Youth/Wood Memorial winner. If it weren’t for Eskendereya, this colt might be favored for the Derby! He tries so hard that I'm not really concerned about his apparent stamina limitations. He can do this.
13. MISSION IMPAZIBLE Unbridled's Song - La Pez, by Hold Your Peace Todd Pletcher
A lot of people have been trashing the Louisiana Derby, saying that the horses running were no good. The same thing was being said about the 2005 Santa Anita Derby, but that race provided four of the top six finishers in that year's Kentucky Derby, including Giacomo. Don't throw out Mission Impazible yet!
14. THE MYSTERY HORSE ??? - ???, by ??? ???
Say hello to the mystery horse, the colt whose identity won't be revealed until Thursday. Obviously, you can narrow it down to a few horses, as most of the Derby contenders are in the Top Twenty, but I will reveal that he is one of the horses on the "Watch Very Closely" list.
15. STATELY VICTOR Ghostzapper - Collect the Cash, by Dynaformer Micheal Maker
This colt looked incredible while winning the Blue Grass, and he has been training well at Churchill, but I must be careful with Blue Grass winners. All together too often they look unstoppable but manage to stop in the Derby.
16. AMERICAN LION Tiznow - Storm Tide, by Storm Cat Eoin Harty
I have loved this colt since his win in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes last year, but he just hasn't shown the ability to win the Kentucky Derby. Still, there's something about him that interests me and I just can't drop him off my list until I discover what it is.
17. NOBLE'S PROMISE Cuvee - The Devil's Trick, by Clever Trick Kenneth G. McPeek
Had a really good workout at Churchill Downs, but nobody knows if he is going to the Derby or not. Until they announce that he will run, I'm going to keep him down here.
18. PLEASANT PRINCE Indy King - Archduchess, by Wesley Ward
Obviously, the runner up in the Florida Derby deserves to run in the Kentucky Derby, but he is still not in. He gets his final prep in the Derby Trial, and if he wins, he will run in the Derby. But will he be too tired? Until he is actually in the Derby, I'm going to keep him down here.
19. DEVIL MAY CARE Malibu Moon - Kelli's Ransom, by Red Ransom Todd Pletcher
Now that she is being considered for the Derby, I'm going to have to include her in my Top Twenty. If you can believe it, she won the nine furlong Bonnie Miss Stakes, on the undercard of the Florida Derby, in a faster time than Ice Box won the big one! This filly may just be a major contender. With the success of Rags to Riches and Rachel Alexandra, who knows what might happen? But until she is actually entered in the Derby, I'm going to keep her right here.
20. EIGHTFIVEINAFIFTY Forest Camp - Lifeinthefastlane, by Unbridled's Song Gary Contessa
I never though I would see this colt listed as a possible starter in the Kentucky Derby. I don't think that he has a chance, but then again, we don't know how far he can carry his speed. Also, he has been setting such fast fractions in his sprint races that a 1:09 4/5 for three quarters of a mile in the Derby would be a workout.
WATCH VERY CLOSELY
BACKTALK Not sure if he's going to get in.
DEAN'S KITTEN Training well at Churchill.
DISCREETLY MINE Not crying for distance.
HOMEBOYKRIS Has not raced since February 27th.
INTERACTIF May not run in the Derby.
MAKE MUSIC FOR ME Not sure if he's going to get in.
AIKENITE Will run in the Derby Trial, probably won't run in the Derby.
GAME ON DUDE Will run in the Derby Trial, doesn't have the graded earnings.
PADDY O'PRADO Nice run in the Blue Grass, training well at Churchill.
SOARING EMPIRE Will run in the Derby Trial, doesn't have the graded earnings.
Now, I suppose you're all wondering why Blind Luck isn't on the list anymore. Well, I can't include her because she's going to run in the Oaks. But if her connections decide to run her in the Derby, I will put her back on. And I will put her in the top five.
-Keelerman
Friday, April 23, 2010
TRIPLE CROWN COUNTDOWN ---- APRIL 23rd, 2010
". . . they come down the homestretch and it's Lookin at Lucky with a narrow lead! Super Saver battles on his inside, and Dublin is launching a furious rally from the back of the pack! Dublin is grinding past horses! Lookin at Lucky leads at the eighth pole! Super Saver refuses to give way! Calvin Borel is imploring him to go on! But here comes Dublin! Down to the final sixteenth! Lookin at Lucky has unwavering courage! Super Saver is a stubborn foe! And Dublin is cutting them both down with every stride! Here's the wire! . . . Dublin gets up to win it by a neck! Welcome back Wayne Lukas!"
Oh wait a minute . . . that's next Saturday. Or at least I hope that's what happens next Saturday.
Getting serious, there is only one week left before the Kentucky Derby. And amazingly, there is still one final prep. And that is the Derby Trial, which has been reduced to nothing over the past several years, but with the severe earnings problem many top horses are facing, it is once again a prime trial for the Derby. If you can believe it, two of the colts running may end up in the Derby if they win. So let's take a look at the tough ten horse field and see what we can figure out.
DERBY TRIAL (gr. III) ---- Churchill Downs, Race 10, April 24th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
To begin with, there is the number one horse Game On Dude. The son of Awesome Again has not raced since running seventh in the Florida Derby behind Ice Box five weeks ago. He has been fairly consistent, but proved that he was no match for the best horses in Florida. Still, he will be ridden by Robby Albarado and will have to carry only 117 pounds, which is four less than the high weight Eightyfiveinafifty. He might be in the mix, but may not be quite as good as some of the others that are running.
This brings us to the number two horse Soaring Empire. Another colt making his first start back since the Florida Derby, the son of Empire Maker did not get a great trip in that race, and may step up and run a big one tomorrow. He will be ridden by Eddie Castro and will carry 117 pounds.
Then there is the number three horse Privilaged. The son of Southern Image has only made one start this year, and that was in the grade II Swale Stakes on the undercard of the Florida Derby. He actually ran a very good race that day, racing three wide while chasing the pace. He ended up third, beaten three and a half lengths. I actually like him pretty well here, and I think that he has the ability to step up and run the race of his life. He will be ridden by R. Maragh and will carry 117 pounds.
Now we come to the four horse Pleasant Prince. The 4-1 morning line second choice has been racing rather frequently. Five weeks ago he ran second in the Florida Derby. Two weeks ago he ran seventh in the Blue Grass, but it was obvious that he hated Keeneland's Polytrack. Now he intends to run in the in the Derby Trial, and should he win, the Kentucky Derby. That would be four races in six weeks. And his seventh of the year. If he can handle it, he is a very rare horse. Anyway, the son of Indy King will be carrying 117 pounds tomorrow and will be ridden by regular rider Julien Leparoux, who won the Eclipse award last year for outstanding jockey.
Next up is the number five horse Hurricane Ike. The son of Graeme Hall has ran an excellent race last time out in his first start on dirt, running second to Eightfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes while earning the highest Beyer speed figure of his life. He has yet to be proven beyond seven furlongs, as in his only start beyond that distance he ran eleventh in the Breeders' Futurity, but that was many months ago, and it was at Keeneland. Tomorrow, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Calvin Borel, which is always a good thing.
But we mustn’t ignore the six horse Miner's Reserve. The son of Mineshaft broke his maiden impressively earlier this year, but ran a horrible race in the Florida Derby, being beaten nearly thirty-five lengths while having no obvious excuse. But I am willing to excuse his poor performance there and assume that he is going to bounce back. He will carry 117 pounds tomorrow, five pounds less than he has ever carried in his life, and will be ridden for the first time by Jose Lezcano.
This brings us to the number seven horse Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow will be making his tenth lifetime start at the sixth different track. He seems to be one of those colts who runs either really well or really poorly. Looking at his workouts, I would say that he has taken to Churchill Downs rather well, and might be ready to run his best race tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds and will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who rode the colt to his best victory, an optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park.
Then there is the number eight horse Hear Ye Hear Ye. You certainly can't knock the son of Hear No Evil's soundness, as the Derby Trial will be his fourteenth start and his second of the month. If you can believe it, he has run in at least one race every month since last May, excluding the month of January. He has won twice, but is a state-restricted stakes winner. He has finished in the top three only three times, but has finished fourth five times. I don't think he will be a very big contender tomorrow, but with Corey Nakatani on his back, you never know. He will carry 117 pounds.
Coming down to the final two entries, we find Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True ran the worst race of his career in his last start, the Blue Grass Stakes. He has no obvious reason, as he had run well over Keeneland's Polytrack before, and we can only hope that he will return to his prior racing form. However, he has run his best races while coming from off the pace, and he might have been just a tad too close to the lead in the Blue Grass. Hopefully, his jockey Garrett Gomez will take him back tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds.
Finally, we come to the ten horse Eightyfiveinafifty. This colt is the solid morning line favorite at 8-5, and will probably be lower by post time, but he seems to be a bit wild. Two starts back he failed to turn going into the first turn at Aqueduct in the mile and a sixteenth Whirlaway Stakes. He ended up with a broken bit and a cut which required stitches. And in his last start, the Bay Shore Stakes, he won easily, but was not paying much attention to the race. For the first fifty yards or so, he ran with his head turned towards the infield and never seems completely comfortable. Another question that I ask is can he go a mile? The answer is perhaps. We'll find out tomorrow. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez and will carry top weight of 121 pounds.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Pleasant Prince
3 Aikenite
5 Privilaged
6 Soaring Empire
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Game On Dude
9 Wow Wow Wow
10 Hear Ye Hear Ye
It was a tough decision, but I guess I'm not going to pick a colt who might not finish the race. I know that he is probably past not making turns, but he still seems to be a very erratic horse and somewhat unpredictable. Still, he appears to be a step or two above every other horse in this race. My pick is Hurricane Ike, who got within two and a half lengths of Eightyfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes. With an extra furlong, who knows what might happen? Wow Wow Wow is another horse I like, but I can't see him lasting the mile distance with the pace that is going to be run. There is a lot of speed in this race. As for third, I couldn't make up my mind. Pleasant Prince is probably better than Aikenite, but Aikenite hasn't raced so frequently this year and may have a bit more left in the end. Pleasant Prince will probably be coming late, but I can't see him getting up in time. If Aikenite sticks close to the pace, he will probably fade. If he comes from behind, me might just get there. As for Miner's Reserve and Soaring Empire, both of them have a shot at winning, but I just can't see them doing it. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Now, as there is only one week left before the Derby, there aren’t exactly a ton of races remaining. As I glance over my National Stakes Conditions booklet, I see only a few stakes races worth mentioning. I'll begin with the Withers Stakes and Aqueduct.
The grade III Withers Stakes used to be a very prestigious race. In recent years, however, it has been reduced to nothing more than a prep for the Preakness. Still, the one mile race has attracted a quality field of three year olds this year, although as far as I know none of them are aiming for the Triple Crown. But you never know what might happen . . .
I'm only going to briefly describe the race, but I'll try to be as thorough as possible. The heavy favorite will likely be D' Funnybone, who will be trying for his fifth graded stakes win. He is undefeated this year, with dual seven furlong grade II victories, but the question is can he go a mile? There is a fair amount of speed in this race, most of it coming from Most Happy Fella and Castaneda. Interestingly, Most Happy Fella is the number one horse, D' Funnybone the number two horse, Castaneda the number three. There could be an interesting speed dual early. If that was to be the case, than Afleet Again and Ibboyee might come running late. I would not be surprised at all if D' Funnybone is upset. Finally, there is the number five horse Spangled Star. Nobody seems to think that he has a chance, but you never know. He only has to carry 116 pounds, the same as Most Happy Fella, and he might just have a shot.
RACE RESULTS
First off, I shall recap the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
The mile and a sixteenth event drew a tough field of twelve, and Connemara was made the slight favorite over Uptowncharlybrown. Bushwhacked and Krypton were also well liked.
The way I saw it, there was just enough speed that the winner would come from behind. I just couldn't see Krypton or Exhi wiring the race. I felt that Call Shot would sit just off the pace and win by a length or so, with Uptowncharlybrown rallying late for second and Connemara getting up for third.
Exhi went wire-to-wire. Connemara finished tenth and Call Shot eleventh.
It just goes to show that I should stay away from Keeneland. I do okay handicapping the little races there, but I always falter when it comes to the stakes races. Exhi, sent off at nearly 20-1, set pretty good fractions from the start and held off Bushwhacked and Uptowncharlybrown for the win. (But I did correctly predict Chief Counsel to come in fourth.)
So here are the final results. . .
1 Exhi
2 Bushwhacked
3 Uptowncharlybrown
4 Chief Counsel
5 Prince Will I Am
6 Kettle River
7 Distorted Dave
8 Heavenville
9 Krypton
10 Connemara
11 Call Shot
12 Lonesome Street
. . . versus my selections.
1 Call Shot
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Connemara
4 Chief Counsel
5 Lonesome Street
6 Exhi
7 Distorted Dave
8 Krypton
9 Kettle River
10 Prince Will I Am
11 Heavenville
12 Bushwhacked
I didn't do very well, but I didn't do all that terrible. (Okay, I did rotten. I had the winner to finish sixth and the runner up to finish last. The only horses I was right about were Chief Counsel and Distorted Dave!)
But I'm satisfied with the results. Although none of the runners will be making it to the Derby, it was still a good prep, and one of the runners might end up in either the Preakness or the Belmont.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
To begin with, there was the six furlong KHEY Y-96 Sprint Stakes at Sunland Park. A field of nine was drawn, the favorite being Malibu Mystic. My personal pick was Haitian Hero, and despite the fact that his morning line odds were something like 9-2, he was sent off at 22-1.
In the early going, Malibu Mystic led, with El Confidential, a 25-1 shot, and Haitian Hero pressing him on the outside. But as they started their drives, Malibu Mystic gave way, leaving Haitian Hero and El Confidential to battle it out. Under the wire it was Haitian Hero, El Confidential second. Timbavati made a lot of ground to finish third. Malibu Mystic finished eighth, beaten seventeen lengths.
Then there was a nine furlong turf allowance race at Keeneland. For three year olds, my pick was Center Divider, and he was sent off as the 3-2 favorite. Also well liked was Mister Marti Gras.
In the early going, Justamatteroftime set the pace, followed closely by Patti's Kitten and Down With Dixie. Center Divider sat fourth for much of the race.
However, around the final turn, Center Divider began his run. Moving strongly while four wide, he took the lead at the eighth pole and drew off to win by four. Patti's Kitten, at 10-1, finished second, with Looks Purrrfect third. Mister Marti Gras was fourth.
And finally, there was a mile and a sixteenth allowance race on the turf at Keeneland. For three year old fillies, the race drew six runners. The narrowest of favorites was Lisa's Kitten, with Joharmony the second choice. Lucky Lass and Laura Babe were also well bet.
As it turned out, the order of finish was nearly identical to the odds they were sent off at. Joharmany, my pick, finished first by a neck, with Lisa's Kitten second, three quarters of a length in front of Lucky Lass. It was another six back to Laura Babe, with Full Storm and Wildcat Dreamer trailing. So the winner was 2-1, the runner up was 2-1, the third place finisher was 3-1, the fourth place finisher 4-1, the fifth place finisher 11-1, and the trailer 19-1. The bettors at Keeneland were almost completely right. If Lisa's Kitten had gotten up in time, they would have been completely right. Wow.
UNDERCOVER AT THE DOWNS
With the Kentucky Derby coming closer every minute, "Undercover at the Downs" is dedicated to helping sort out all the stuff that is going on at Churchill Downs, including workouts, possible equipment changes, and other news. To begin, here are some contenders who have worked out over the past week or so.
WORKOUTS
APRIL 15th
Hurricane Ike breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Jackson Bend breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Privilaged breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Wow Wow Wow breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5.
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5.
APRIL 16th --- Churchill Downs
Guys Reward breezed four furlongs in :49 flat.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :50 flat.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Seeking the Title breezed four furlongs in :50 1/5.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in :59 3/5.
Stay Put breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Training
Dean's Kitten breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the co-fastest of ten workouts at that distance.
Kera's Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Downs
Aspire breezed three furlongs in :36 flat, the co-fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Naiche breezed three furlongs in :37 3/5 on a good track.
Cool Bullet breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Miner's Reserve breezed four furlongs in :46 flat, the fastest of fifty-four workouts at that distance.
Fist of Rage breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5 on a good track.
Sheer Beauty breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a good track.
Sidney's Candy breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5.
Champagne d'Oro breezed six furlongs in 1:14 flat.
Crisp breezed six furlongs in 1:15 1/5.
Elusive Jozi breezed six furlongs in 1:12 3/5 on a good track, the fastest of eight workouts at that distance.
APRIL 18th --- Churchill Downs
Bravo Whiskey breezed four furlongs in :50 3/5.
Don't Put It Back breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5.
Raging Wit breezed four furlongs in :48 3/5.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:04 flat.
Raphael Alexandro breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat. (Not a contender, but a cute name.)
Safe Trip breezed five furlongs in :59 flat, the fastest of thirty-two workouts at that distance.
Thiskyhasnolimit breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Vow to Wager breezed five furlongs in 1:01 4/5.
APRIL 19th --- Churchill Downs
Decelerator breezed four furlongs in :47 flat.
Guru breezed four furlongs in :51 flat.
Necassary Evil breezed four furlongs in :51 4/5.
Bell's Shoes breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Dublin breezed five furlongs in :59 1/5, the fastest of forty-four workouts at that distance.
Game On Dude breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Northern Giant breezed five furlongs in 1:02 1/5.
Crider breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5.
Hot Dixie Chick breezed six furlongs in 1:13 3/5.
APRIL 20th --- Churchill Downs
Beautician breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5.
Diva Delite breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Hurrican Ike breezed five furlongs in 1:00 1/5.
Line of David breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Noble's Promise breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the fastest of thirty workouts at that distance.
Privilaged breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Awesome Act breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
Tidal Pool breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
APRIL 21st --- Churchill Downs
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in :58 3/5.
Fuzzy Britches breezed five furlongs in 1:04 3/5.
Homeboykris breezed five furlongs in 1:14 4/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:12 flat.
APRIL 22nd --- Churchill Downs
Our Dark Knight breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 4/5.
Lost Aptitude breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Jackson Bend breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat, the co-fastest of twenty workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Downs
Doubles Partner breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a sloppy track.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :46 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-seven workouts at that distance.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a sloppy track.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Stay Put breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a wet fast track.
Ailalea breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Colizeo breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Paddy O’Prado breezed five furlongs in :58 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in 1:03 3/5 on a sloppy track.
Crisp breezed five furlongs in 1:14 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of two workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Training
Dean’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in :1:01 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Kera’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
Stately Victor breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
OTHER TRIPLE CROWN NEWS
It sounds as though Lookin at Lucky will not wear blinkers in the Kentucky Derby.
She Be Wild is out of the Kentucky Oaks due to a leg injury. However, she should be able to return to racing later this year.
Calvin Borel is confident that he can get Super Saver to relax in the Kentucky Derby.
Robby Albarado has chosen Endorsement over Noble's Promise as his Kentucky Derby mount. This may be partly due to the fact that Noble's Promise may not run in the Derby.
Noble's Promise worked a blazing five furlongs at Churchill Downs on April 20th, and is now "60-40" for the Derby.
Todd Pletcher has announced that he is considering running Devil May Care in the Kentucky Derby. This decision may be based on the fact that just three days ago, the filly worked the fastest of fourteen five furlongs workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center. Among the horses who worked slower than Devil May Care were A Little Warm, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, Ibboyee, Mission Impazible, and Rule. Hmm . . .
AND NOW ONE LAST THING. . .
Can you believe that I'm not done yet? Nope, I still have one last thing to say.
With only one week remaining until Derby day, things are really starting to get hot. All the focus is on Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, and a few others who have worked out sharply.
However, it is worth mentioning that there is a colt who is being overlooked, and has been overlooked for many months.
I'm going to say it now, because if he was to win the Derby, I would like to be one of the few people who can say that they considered him a contender. His workouts have been rather good, and his trainer is confident that his colt will get a piece of it. Who is this colt?
I'll tell you on Thursday.
Why Thursday? Well, for one thing, I would like to keep this colt's identity secret for a while, because it's fun to look forward to secrets. For another thing, I would like to wait until after the post positions are drawn, because that way I can truly tell you what I think of him.
But I'm not going to let you forget about him. Every blog post from now until I reveal who he is, I'm going to mention "The Mystery Colt" who has a big chance at hitting the board in, or even winning, the Kentucky Derby.
And that, my friends, is all. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
(P.S. After the Derby Trial is run, I will be post something more or less every day until the Derby is over. Also, on May 1st, I will be live on my blog, updating as post time draws nearer. This is going to be so much fun! ! !)
Oh wait a minute . . . that's next Saturday. Or at least I hope that's what happens next Saturday.
Getting serious, there is only one week left before the Kentucky Derby. And amazingly, there is still one final prep. And that is the Derby Trial, which has been reduced to nothing over the past several years, but with the severe earnings problem many top horses are facing, it is once again a prime trial for the Derby. If you can believe it, two of the colts running may end up in the Derby if they win. So let's take a look at the tough ten horse field and see what we can figure out.
DERBY TRIAL (gr. III) ---- Churchill Downs, Race 10, April 24th
8 Furlongs (Dirt)
To begin with, there is the number one horse Game On Dude. The son of Awesome Again has not raced since running seventh in the Florida Derby behind Ice Box five weeks ago. He has been fairly consistent, but proved that he was no match for the best horses in Florida. Still, he will be ridden by Robby Albarado and will have to carry only 117 pounds, which is four less than the high weight Eightyfiveinafifty. He might be in the mix, but may not be quite as good as some of the others that are running.
This brings us to the number two horse Soaring Empire. Another colt making his first start back since the Florida Derby, the son of Empire Maker did not get a great trip in that race, and may step up and run a big one tomorrow. He will be ridden by Eddie Castro and will carry 117 pounds.
Then there is the number three horse Privilaged. The son of Southern Image has only made one start this year, and that was in the grade II Swale Stakes on the undercard of the Florida Derby. He actually ran a very good race that day, racing three wide while chasing the pace. He ended up third, beaten three and a half lengths. I actually like him pretty well here, and I think that he has the ability to step up and run the race of his life. He will be ridden by R. Maragh and will carry 117 pounds.
Now we come to the four horse Pleasant Prince. The 4-1 morning line second choice has been racing rather frequently. Five weeks ago he ran second in the Florida Derby. Two weeks ago he ran seventh in the Blue Grass, but it was obvious that he hated Keeneland's Polytrack. Now he intends to run in the in the Derby Trial, and should he win, the Kentucky Derby. That would be four races in six weeks. And his seventh of the year. If he can handle it, he is a very rare horse. Anyway, the son of Indy King will be carrying 117 pounds tomorrow and will be ridden by regular rider Julien Leparoux, who won the Eclipse award last year for outstanding jockey.
Next up is the number five horse Hurricane Ike. The son of Graeme Hall has ran an excellent race last time out in his first start on dirt, running second to Eightfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes while earning the highest Beyer speed figure of his life. He has yet to be proven beyond seven furlongs, as in his only start beyond that distance he ran eleventh in the Breeders' Futurity, but that was many months ago, and it was at Keeneland. Tomorrow, he will carry 117 pounds and will be ridden by Calvin Borel, which is always a good thing.
But we mustn’t ignore the six horse Miner's Reserve. The son of Mineshaft broke his maiden impressively earlier this year, but ran a horrible race in the Florida Derby, being beaten nearly thirty-five lengths while having no obvious excuse. But I am willing to excuse his poor performance there and assume that he is going to bounce back. He will carry 117 pounds tomorrow, five pounds less than he has ever carried in his life, and will be ridden for the first time by Jose Lezcano.
This brings us to the number seven horse Wow Wow Wow. The son of Broken Vow will be making his tenth lifetime start at the sixth different track. He seems to be one of those colts who runs either really well or really poorly. Looking at his workouts, I would say that he has taken to Churchill Downs rather well, and might be ready to run his best race tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds and will be ridden by Terry Thompson, who rode the colt to his best victory, an optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park.
Then there is the number eight horse Hear Ye Hear Ye. You certainly can't knock the son of Hear No Evil's soundness, as the Derby Trial will be his fourteenth start and his second of the month. If you can believe it, he has run in at least one race every month since last May, excluding the month of January. He has won twice, but is a state-restricted stakes winner. He has finished in the top three only three times, but has finished fourth five times. I don't think he will be a very big contender tomorrow, but with Corey Nakatani on his back, you never know. He will carry 117 pounds.
Coming down to the final two entries, we find Aikenite. The son of Yes It's True ran the worst race of his career in his last start, the Blue Grass Stakes. He has no obvious reason, as he had run well over Keeneland's Polytrack before, and we can only hope that he will return to his prior racing form. However, he has run his best races while coming from off the pace, and he might have been just a tad too close to the lead in the Blue Grass. Hopefully, his jockey Garrett Gomez will take him back tomorrow. He will be carrying 117 pounds.
Finally, we come to the ten horse Eightyfiveinafifty. This colt is the solid morning line favorite at 8-5, and will probably be lower by post time, but he seems to be a bit wild. Two starts back he failed to turn going into the first turn at Aqueduct in the mile and a sixteenth Whirlaway Stakes. He ended up with a broken bit and a cut which required stitches. And in his last start, the Bay Shore Stakes, he won easily, but was not paying much attention to the race. For the first fifty yards or so, he ran with his head turned towards the infield and never seems completely comfortable. Another question that I ask is can he go a mile? The answer is perhaps. We'll find out tomorrow. He will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez and will carry top weight of 121 pounds.
So here are my selections. . .
1 Hurricane Ike
2 Eightyfiveinafifty
3 Pleasant Prince
3 Aikenite
5 Privilaged
6 Soaring Empire
7 Miner's Reserve
8 Game On Dude
9 Wow Wow Wow
10 Hear Ye Hear Ye
It was a tough decision, but I guess I'm not going to pick a colt who might not finish the race. I know that he is probably past not making turns, but he still seems to be a very erratic horse and somewhat unpredictable. Still, he appears to be a step or two above every other horse in this race. My pick is Hurricane Ike, who got within two and a half lengths of Eightyfiveinafifty in the Bay Shore Stakes. With an extra furlong, who knows what might happen? Wow Wow Wow is another horse I like, but I can't see him lasting the mile distance with the pace that is going to be run. There is a lot of speed in this race. As for third, I couldn't make up my mind. Pleasant Prince is probably better than Aikenite, but Aikenite hasn't raced so frequently this year and may have a bit more left in the end. Pleasant Prince will probably be coming late, but I can't see him getting up in time. If Aikenite sticks close to the pace, he will probably fade. If he comes from behind, me might just get there. As for Miner's Reserve and Soaring Empire, both of them have a shot at winning, but I just can't see them doing it. Those are my final thoughts.
OTHER RACES TO WATCH
Now, as there is only one week left before the Derby, there aren’t exactly a ton of races remaining. As I glance over my National Stakes Conditions booklet, I see only a few stakes races worth mentioning. I'll begin with the Withers Stakes and Aqueduct.
The grade III Withers Stakes used to be a very prestigious race. In recent years, however, it has been reduced to nothing more than a prep for the Preakness. Still, the one mile race has attracted a quality field of three year olds this year, although as far as I know none of them are aiming for the Triple Crown. But you never know what might happen . . .
I'm only going to briefly describe the race, but I'll try to be as thorough as possible. The heavy favorite will likely be D' Funnybone, who will be trying for his fifth graded stakes win. He is undefeated this year, with dual seven furlong grade II victories, but the question is can he go a mile? There is a fair amount of speed in this race, most of it coming from Most Happy Fella and Castaneda. Interestingly, Most Happy Fella is the number one horse, D' Funnybone the number two horse, Castaneda the number three. There could be an interesting speed dual early. If that was to be the case, than Afleet Again and Ibboyee might come running late. I would not be surprised at all if D' Funnybone is upset. Finally, there is the number five horse Spangled Star. Nobody seems to think that he has a chance, but you never know. He only has to carry 116 pounds, the same as Most Happy Fella, and he might just have a shot.
RACE RESULTS
First off, I shall recap the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.
The mile and a sixteenth event drew a tough field of twelve, and Connemara was made the slight favorite over Uptowncharlybrown. Bushwhacked and Krypton were also well liked.
The way I saw it, there was just enough speed that the winner would come from behind. I just couldn't see Krypton or Exhi wiring the race. I felt that Call Shot would sit just off the pace and win by a length or so, with Uptowncharlybrown rallying late for second and Connemara getting up for third.
Exhi went wire-to-wire. Connemara finished tenth and Call Shot eleventh.
It just goes to show that I should stay away from Keeneland. I do okay handicapping the little races there, but I always falter when it comes to the stakes races. Exhi, sent off at nearly 20-1, set pretty good fractions from the start and held off Bushwhacked and Uptowncharlybrown for the win. (But I did correctly predict Chief Counsel to come in fourth.)
So here are the final results. . .
1 Exhi
2 Bushwhacked
3 Uptowncharlybrown
4 Chief Counsel
5 Prince Will I Am
6 Kettle River
7 Distorted Dave
8 Heavenville
9 Krypton
10 Connemara
11 Call Shot
12 Lonesome Street
. . . versus my selections.
1 Call Shot
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Connemara
4 Chief Counsel
5 Lonesome Street
6 Exhi
7 Distorted Dave
8 Krypton
9 Kettle River
10 Prince Will I Am
11 Heavenville
12 Bushwhacked
I didn't do very well, but I didn't do all that terrible. (Okay, I did rotten. I had the winner to finish sixth and the runner up to finish last. The only horses I was right about were Chief Counsel and Distorted Dave!)
But I'm satisfied with the results. Although none of the runners will be making it to the Derby, it was still a good prep, and one of the runners might end up in either the Preakness or the Belmont.
OTHER RACE RESULTS
To begin with, there was the six furlong KHEY Y-96 Sprint Stakes at Sunland Park. A field of nine was drawn, the favorite being Malibu Mystic. My personal pick was Haitian Hero, and despite the fact that his morning line odds were something like 9-2, he was sent off at 22-1.
In the early going, Malibu Mystic led, with El Confidential, a 25-1 shot, and Haitian Hero pressing him on the outside. But as they started their drives, Malibu Mystic gave way, leaving Haitian Hero and El Confidential to battle it out. Under the wire it was Haitian Hero, El Confidential second. Timbavati made a lot of ground to finish third. Malibu Mystic finished eighth, beaten seventeen lengths.
Then there was a nine furlong turf allowance race at Keeneland. For three year olds, my pick was Center Divider, and he was sent off as the 3-2 favorite. Also well liked was Mister Marti Gras.
In the early going, Justamatteroftime set the pace, followed closely by Patti's Kitten and Down With Dixie. Center Divider sat fourth for much of the race.
However, around the final turn, Center Divider began his run. Moving strongly while four wide, he took the lead at the eighth pole and drew off to win by four. Patti's Kitten, at 10-1, finished second, with Looks Purrrfect third. Mister Marti Gras was fourth.
And finally, there was a mile and a sixteenth allowance race on the turf at Keeneland. For three year old fillies, the race drew six runners. The narrowest of favorites was Lisa's Kitten, with Joharmony the second choice. Lucky Lass and Laura Babe were also well bet.
As it turned out, the order of finish was nearly identical to the odds they were sent off at. Joharmany, my pick, finished first by a neck, with Lisa's Kitten second, three quarters of a length in front of Lucky Lass. It was another six back to Laura Babe, with Full Storm and Wildcat Dreamer trailing. So the winner was 2-1, the runner up was 2-1, the third place finisher was 3-1, the fourth place finisher 4-1, the fifth place finisher 11-1, and the trailer 19-1. The bettors at Keeneland were almost completely right. If Lisa's Kitten had gotten up in time, they would have been completely right. Wow.
UNDERCOVER AT THE DOWNS
With the Kentucky Derby coming closer every minute, "Undercover at the Downs" is dedicated to helping sort out all the stuff that is going on at Churchill Downs, including workouts, possible equipment changes, and other news. To begin, here are some contenders who have worked out over the past week or so.
WORKOUTS
APRIL 15th
Hurricane Ike breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Jackson Bend breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Privilaged breezed four furlongs in :48 flat.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 2/5.
Wow Wow Wow breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5.
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:01 1/5.
APRIL 16th --- Churchill Downs
Guys Reward breezed four furlongs in :49 flat.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :50 flat.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Seeking the Title breezed four furlongs in :50 1/5.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in :59 3/5.
Stay Put breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Training
Dean's Kitten breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the co-fastest of ten workouts at that distance.
Kera's Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
APRIL 17th --- Churchill Downs
Aspire breezed three furlongs in :36 flat, the co-fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Naiche breezed three furlongs in :37 3/5 on a good track.
Cool Bullet breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5.
Miner's Reserve breezed four furlongs in :46 flat, the fastest of fifty-four workouts at that distance.
Fist of Rage breezed four furlongs in :47 3/5 on a good track.
Sheer Beauty breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a good track.
Sidney's Candy breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5.
Champagne d'Oro breezed six furlongs in 1:14 flat.
Crisp breezed six furlongs in 1:15 1/5.
Elusive Jozi breezed six furlongs in 1:12 3/5 on a good track, the fastest of eight workouts at that distance.
APRIL 18th --- Churchill Downs
Bravo Whiskey breezed four furlongs in :50 3/5.
Don't Put It Back breezed four furlongs in :49 2/5.
Raging Wit breezed four furlongs in :48 3/5.
Backtalk breezed five furlongs in 1:04 flat.
Raphael Alexandro breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat. (Not a contender, but a cute name.)
Safe Trip breezed five furlongs in :59 flat, the fastest of thirty-two workouts at that distance.
Thiskyhasnolimit breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Vow to Wager breezed five furlongs in 1:01 4/5.
APRIL 19th --- Churchill Downs
Decelerator breezed four furlongs in :47 flat.
Guru breezed four furlongs in :51 flat.
Necassary Evil breezed four furlongs in :51 4/5.
Bell's Shoes breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Dublin breezed five furlongs in :59 1/5, the fastest of forty-four workouts at that distance.
Game On Dude breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5.
Northern Giant breezed five furlongs in 1:02 1/5.
Crider breezed six furlongs in 1:13 1/5.
Hot Dixie Chick breezed six furlongs in 1:13 3/5.
APRIL 20th --- Churchill Downs
Beautician breezed five furlongs in 1:00 2/5.
Diva Delite breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Hurrican Ike breezed five furlongs in 1:00 1/5.
Line of David breezed five furlongs in 1:02 flat.
Noble's Promise breezed five furlongs in :59 4/5, the fastest of thirty workouts at that distance.
Privilaged breezed five furlongs in 1:00 4/5.
Awesome Act breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
Tidal Pool breezed five furlongs in 1:12 3/5.
APRIL 21st --- Churchill Downs
Conveyance breezed five furlongs in :58 3/5.
Fuzzy Britches breezed five furlongs in 1:04 3/5.
Homeboykris breezed five furlongs in 1:14 4/5.
Lookin at Lucky breezed five furlongs in 1:12 flat.
APRIL 22nd --- Churchill Downs
Our Dark Knight breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5.
Thomas Got Even breezed four furlongs in :47 4/5.
Lost Aptitude breezed five furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
Jackson Bend breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat, the co-fastest of twenty workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Downs
Doubles Partner breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a sloppy track.
Ice Box breezed four furlongs in :46 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-seven workouts at that distance.
Jody Slew breezed four furlongs in :48 2/5 on a sloppy track.
Morning Line breezed four furlongs in :47 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Stay Put breezed four furlongs in :49 flat on a wet fast track.
Ailalea breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Colizeo breezed five furlongs in 1:00 flat on a sloppy track.
Paddy O’Prado breezed five furlongs in :58 2/5 on a sloppy track, the fastest of twenty-one workouts at that distance.
Quiet Temper breezed five furlongs in 1:03 3/5 on a sloppy track.
Crisp breezed five furlongs in 1:14 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of two workouts at that distance.
APRIL 23rd --- Churchill Training
Dean’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in :1:01 1/5 on a sloppy track.
Kera’s Kitten breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
Stately Victor breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on a sloppy track, the co-fastest of thirteen workouts at that distance.
OTHER TRIPLE CROWN NEWS
It sounds as though Lookin at Lucky will not wear blinkers in the Kentucky Derby.
She Be Wild is out of the Kentucky Oaks due to a leg injury. However, she should be able to return to racing later this year.
Calvin Borel is confident that he can get Super Saver to relax in the Kentucky Derby.
Robby Albarado has chosen Endorsement over Noble's Promise as his Kentucky Derby mount. This may be partly due to the fact that Noble's Promise may not run in the Derby.
Noble's Promise worked a blazing five furlongs at Churchill Downs on April 20th, and is now "60-40" for the Derby.
Todd Pletcher has announced that he is considering running Devil May Care in the Kentucky Derby. This decision may be based on the fact that just three days ago, the filly worked the fastest of fourteen five furlongs workouts at Palm Meadows Training Center. Among the horses who worked slower than Devil May Care were A Little Warm, Discreetly Mine, Eskendereya, Ibboyee, Mission Impazible, and Rule. Hmm . . .
AND NOW ONE LAST THING. . .
Can you believe that I'm not done yet? Nope, I still have one last thing to say.
With only one week remaining until Derby day, things are really starting to get hot. All the focus is on Eskendereya, Lookin at Lucky, Sidney's Candy, and a few others who have worked out sharply.
However, it is worth mentioning that there is a colt who is being overlooked, and has been overlooked for many months.
I'm going to say it now, because if he was to win the Derby, I would like to be one of the few people who can say that they considered him a contender. His workouts have been rather good, and his trainer is confident that his colt will get a piece of it. Who is this colt?
I'll tell you on Thursday.
Why Thursday? Well, for one thing, I would like to keep this colt's identity secret for a while, because it's fun to look forward to secrets. For another thing, I would like to wait until after the post positions are drawn, because that way I can truly tell you what I think of him.
But I'm not going to let you forget about him. Every blog post from now until I reveal who he is, I'm going to mention "The Mystery Colt" who has a big chance at hitting the board in, or even winning, the Kentucky Derby.
And that, my friends, is all. Enjoy the races!
-Keelerman
(P.S. After the Derby Trial is run, I will be post something more or less every day until the Derby is over. Also, on May 1st, I will be live on my blog, updating as post time draws nearer. This is going to be so much fun! ! !)
Thursday, April 22, 2010
ANOTHER OPINION: WHAT DAN J THINKS OF THE TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL
Well, my blog has been up for about three months now. Through out those three months, I have talked a lot, given many opinions, and listed several of my picks. But with the Kentucky Derby only ten days away, I decided that my thoughts alone are not enough.
It is time for an interview with Dan J.
Dan J has been following my blog since it started. As a matter of fact, he has followed horse racing longer than I have. He is the one responsible for this blog, for he is the one who showed me how interesting horse racing is.
So I thought it would be cool if I interviewed him and got his thoughts on this year's Triple Crown Trail. The following are my questions, followed by his answers. Enjoy!
Q: What do you think of this year's crop overall?
A: Despite the many upsets in some of the final preps (Sidney's Candy, Stately Victor, Line of David), I think the overall field has shown itself to be a consistent one.
Q: Let's talk about the Derby Trial. Do you think it is a good idea to run one week before the Kentucky Derby and then show up in the big one?
A: I don't see a problem with it. This is the Derby, and everybody wants that chance at getting in, even if it's a long shot and possibly not the most conventional idea from a conditioning standpoint. However, the owners of horses trying to get in this way need to look carefully at their horses and make sure the horse is truly of Derby caliber.
Q: Do you think that Eightfiveinafifty is capable of winning the Kentucky Derby?
A: I doubt he can stretch out to a mile and a quarter.
Q: We haven't had a Triple Crown winner since 1978. Do you think we will get one this year?
A: Yes, I think this is the year. I can feel it. But having someone win the Triple Crown has advantages and drawbacks. For instance, it would be good for racing right during the time of the attempt and right after, but what will the feeling be next year? Just a "Oh, who needs to watch racing? They just had someone win the big thing. . ." Hopefully that wouldn't happen.
Q: What do you think of the current Derby favorite Eskendereya?
A: I think he may be over-rated. I don't think he can win the Derby. I've seen this exact pattern before, with Bellamy Road in 2005. He won the same race (Wood Memorial) in the same fashion (huge winning margin, running easy), and was talked about the same way ("It's the second coming of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Spectacular Bid in one horse!") and came to the Derby and couldn't stay with the leaders in the homestretch. I can see the same thing happening to Eskendereya.
Q: Do you think that Sidney's Candy is capable of winning the Derby?
A: Absolutely. I have a lot of admiration for horses that win at Santa Anita before coming to the Derby.
Q: What do you think of the Blue Grass Stakes, the 2010 winner Stately Victor, and the runner up Paddy O'Prado?
A: With Keeneland, you never know. Keeneland gives you Street Sense, and it gives you Monba. But my gut feeling is that Stately Victor and Paddy O'Prado are good horses who should be watched carefully.
Q: Are you concerned about the fact that Line of David, Super Saver, and Dublin crawled home in the Arkansas Derby?
A: No. I think it's probably worse to run too fast in your final prep.
Q: Do you know of any three year olds who are not being talked about who might just be capable of upsetting the Kentucky Derby?
A: Ice Box---the Florida Derby has been good to Derby horses in recent years.
Q: Do you think that Todd Pletcher will win his first Derby this year?
A: I'd love to see it happen, but I don't think so.
Q: Some have said that Lookin at Lucky doesn't have the stamina to go a mile and a quarter. What do you think?
A: I think he can do it.
Q: I just received a news alert that Todd Pletcher is considering running his filly Devil May Care in the Kentucky Derby. What do you think of the decision and her chances?
A: If they're running her because she is truly deserving of a chance to run, then I think it's fine. But if they're just running her to fill in more slots and keep other horses out, then I don't like the idea at all. She should go ahead and run in the Oaks, unless they are really confident. So many horses run in the Derby just to do it and then disappear forever.
Q: Last question. Who is your pick for the Kentucky Derby?
A: DUBLIN!
Thanks a lot, Dan J! We'll be interviewing you again right before the Kentucky Derby and you can give us your thoughts on the post position draw and list your final selections. We'll also discuss the Kentucky Oaks and the American Turf Stakes as well. It's going to be a terrific weekend of racing.
10 days until the Kentucky Derby . . .
-Keelerman
It is time for an interview with Dan J.
Dan J has been following my blog since it started. As a matter of fact, he has followed horse racing longer than I have. He is the one responsible for this blog, for he is the one who showed me how interesting horse racing is.
So I thought it would be cool if I interviewed him and got his thoughts on this year's Triple Crown Trail. The following are my questions, followed by his answers. Enjoy!
Q: What do you think of this year's crop overall?
A: Despite the many upsets in some of the final preps (Sidney's Candy, Stately Victor, Line of David), I think the overall field has shown itself to be a consistent one.
Q: Let's talk about the Derby Trial. Do you think it is a good idea to run one week before the Kentucky Derby and then show up in the big one?
A: I don't see a problem with it. This is the Derby, and everybody wants that chance at getting in, even if it's a long shot and possibly not the most conventional idea from a conditioning standpoint. However, the owners of horses trying to get in this way need to look carefully at their horses and make sure the horse is truly of Derby caliber.
Q: Do you think that Eightfiveinafifty is capable of winning the Kentucky Derby?
A: I doubt he can stretch out to a mile and a quarter.
Q: We haven't had a Triple Crown winner since 1978. Do you think we will get one this year?
A: Yes, I think this is the year. I can feel it. But having someone win the Triple Crown has advantages and drawbacks. For instance, it would be good for racing right during the time of the attempt and right after, but what will the feeling be next year? Just a "Oh, who needs to watch racing? They just had someone win the big thing. . ." Hopefully that wouldn't happen.
Q: What do you think of the current Derby favorite Eskendereya?
A: I think he may be over-rated. I don't think he can win the Derby. I've seen this exact pattern before, with Bellamy Road in 2005. He won the same race (Wood Memorial) in the same fashion (huge winning margin, running easy), and was talked about the same way ("It's the second coming of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and Spectacular Bid in one horse!") and came to the Derby and couldn't stay with the leaders in the homestretch. I can see the same thing happening to Eskendereya.
Q: Do you think that Sidney's Candy is capable of winning the Derby?
A: Absolutely. I have a lot of admiration for horses that win at Santa Anita before coming to the Derby.
Q: What do you think of the Blue Grass Stakes, the 2010 winner Stately Victor, and the runner up Paddy O'Prado?
A: With Keeneland, you never know. Keeneland gives you Street Sense, and it gives you Monba. But my gut feeling is that Stately Victor and Paddy O'Prado are good horses who should be watched carefully.
Q: Are you concerned about the fact that Line of David, Super Saver, and Dublin crawled home in the Arkansas Derby?
A: No. I think it's probably worse to run too fast in your final prep.
Q: Do you know of any three year olds who are not being talked about who might just be capable of upsetting the Kentucky Derby?
A: Ice Box---the Florida Derby has been good to Derby horses in recent years.
Q: Do you think that Todd Pletcher will win his first Derby this year?
A: I'd love to see it happen, but I don't think so.
Q: Some have said that Lookin at Lucky doesn't have the stamina to go a mile and a quarter. What do you think?
A: I think he can do it.
Q: I just received a news alert that Todd Pletcher is considering running his filly Devil May Care in the Kentucky Derby. What do you think of the decision and her chances?
A: If they're running her because she is truly deserving of a chance to run, then I think it's fine. But if they're just running her to fill in more slots and keep other horses out, then I don't like the idea at all. She should go ahead and run in the Oaks, unless they are really confident. So many horses run in the Derby just to do it and then disappear forever.
Q: Last question. Who is your pick for the Kentucky Derby?
A: DUBLIN!
Thanks a lot, Dan J! We'll be interviewing you again right before the Kentucky Derby and you can give us your thoughts on the post position draw and list your final selections. We'll also discuss the Kentucky Oaks and the American Turf Stakes as well. It's going to be a terrific weekend of racing.
10 days until the Kentucky Derby . . .
-Keelerman
Sunday, April 18, 2010
THE DREAM DERBY
As I am writing this, it is less than two weeks until the Kentucky Derby. As there is not a lot of racing action until then, (with the exception of the Derby Trial) I decided to try and come up with a fun poll to vote on.
And suddenly an idea comes to me.
I climb out of my chair and rush to my stacks of Blood-Horse issues. There's at least 150 of them, some without the first few pages, some quite bent, but all of them still useful.
After a little search, I manage to find the Triple Crown issues from last year. In those issues are charts showing the past winners of the Triple Crown races, dating all the way back to the first runnings. But all I care about are the winners from the years 2000-2009. Ten years of Triple Crown races. Thirty individual races. I ask myself this: How many colts and fillies did it take to win those thirty races?
The answer is twenty-four. Twenty-four three year olds accounted for the past thirty Triple Crown races. Now let's imagine for a second that Churchill Downs added one more gate to the outside of the auxiliary gate --- just an extra four slots. We know that it is possible, for twenty-three horses ran in the 1974 Kentucky Derby, so what's one more? Now let's imagine that those twenty-four three year olds were all racing in the same year. Let's also imagine that they are at their best, ready for the biggest performance of their lifetime.
So here is the poll --- If those twenty-four three year olds all met in the starting gate for a Dream Kentucky Derby, who would win?
Now, to make this even more fun, I'm going to do a random post position draw, so if your pick draws gate twenty-four, you might want to go with someone else.
I will also provide morning line odds and jockeys.
So here is the field for the Dream Kentucky Derby. . .
Post Horse Jockey Morning Line Odds
1. Bernardini J. Castalleno 15-1
2. Jazil F. Jara 30-1
3. Afleet Alex Jeremy Rose 9-2
4. Smarty Jones Stewart Elliot 8-1
5. Funny Cide Jose Santos 30-1
6. Point Given Gary Stevens 3-1
7. War Emblem Victor Espinoza 35-1
8. Rags to Riches J. Velazquez 20-1
9. Barbaro Edgar Prado 12-1
10. Red Bullet Martin Garcia 20-1
11. Curlin Robby Albarado 7-2
12. Street Sense Garrett Gomez 12-1
13. Birdstone Ramon Dominguez 15-1
14. Empire Maker Jerry Bailey 15-1
15. Commendable Pat Day 50-1
16. Giacomo Mike Smith 30-1
17. Rachel Alexandra Calvin Borel 10-1
18. Monarchos J. Chavez 25-1
19. Mine That Bird Russel Baze 25-1
20. Summer Bird Kent Desormeaux 15-1
21. Sarava Tyler Baze 50-1
22. Da'Tara Alan Garcia 75-1
23. Big Brown Julien Leparoux 6-1
24. Fusaichi Pegasus Joseph Talamo 30-1
Now, with the jockeys, I had to do a little guessing. Of the twenty-four horses, Kent Desormeaux, Calvin Borel, and Edgar Prado all rode three a piece, and Jerry Bailey two of them. I'm just guessing when I put Edgar Prado on Barbaro rather than Sarava or Birdstone, and I'm doing the same when I put Kent Desormeaux on Summer Bird, etc. etc. If those jockeys were actually faced with those decisions, they might do something different. But I had to make the decisions for them here, so I did what I thought they would do. As for the horses who are left without mounts, I put Martin Garcia on Red Bullet, Garrett Gomez on Street Sense, Joseph Talamo on Fusaichi Pegasus, Russel Baze on Mine That Bird, Tyler Baze on Sarava, and Ramon Dominguez on Birdstone. If you have any thoughts on who should ride who, feel free to tell me.
Now for my thoughts on this race. If I was going to try and pick the winner of this race, I would have to go with Curlin. Perhaps he was a bit inexperienced when he took his shot at the Triple Crown, but managed to finish third in the Derby, first in the Preakness, and second in the Belmont. And he went on to even greater things. . .
Of course, you can't ignore Afleet Alex and Point Given. Although Point Given failed to win the 2001 Kentucky Derby and had no obvious excuses, he go on to prove that he was an amazing colt, his career reaching the climax when he won the Belmont Stakes by twelve and a quarter lengths. As for Afleet Alex, I'm sure that if he had not come out of the 2005 Kentucky Derby with a lung infection, he would be a Triple Crown winner. He was one of those very special colts who could do incredible things. He just didn't have enough time to prove it.
What about the fillies? There would only be two running, Rags to Riches and Rachel Alexandra. The former had the stamina, the latter the speed. Both were great champions. Although I think that Rachel Alexandra was the better filly overall, I would go with Rags to Riches here. For one thing, Rachel Alexandra would have to break from post seventeen, while Rags to Riches breaks from gate eight. There’s also a lot of speed in this race, and I already question Rachel Alexandra's ability to go a mile and a quarter. Don't get me wrong, Rachel Alexandra is an amazing filly, one of the all time best, but I would go with Rags to Riches here.
What about value? If you were going to bet a horse with nice odds, I wouldn't overlook Birdstone and Summer Bird. With both of them at 15-1 (they would probably be higher if this race was to really be run) I think that they are both capable of winning a race like this. Giacomo might even have a shot. And don't forget Smarty Jones. . .
So here's the superfecta that I would do.
1 Curlin
2 Afleet Alex
3 Point Given
4 Summer Bird
Of course, I'm throwing out Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and a bunch of other talented horses at my own risk, but that's what I would do.
Who do you think would win? (Be sure to place your vote on my special poll. It is located off to the right near the top of my blog. You have until 11:59 PM on June 5th, 2010 to vote. Enjoy!)
-Keelerman
And suddenly an idea comes to me.
I climb out of my chair and rush to my stacks of Blood-Horse issues. There's at least 150 of them, some without the first few pages, some quite bent, but all of them still useful.
After a little search, I manage to find the Triple Crown issues from last year. In those issues are charts showing the past winners of the Triple Crown races, dating all the way back to the first runnings. But all I care about are the winners from the years 2000-2009. Ten years of Triple Crown races. Thirty individual races. I ask myself this: How many colts and fillies did it take to win those thirty races?
The answer is twenty-four. Twenty-four three year olds accounted for the past thirty Triple Crown races. Now let's imagine for a second that Churchill Downs added one more gate to the outside of the auxiliary gate --- just an extra four slots. We know that it is possible, for twenty-three horses ran in the 1974 Kentucky Derby, so what's one more? Now let's imagine that those twenty-four three year olds were all racing in the same year. Let's also imagine that they are at their best, ready for the biggest performance of their lifetime.
So here is the poll --- If those twenty-four three year olds all met in the starting gate for a Dream Kentucky Derby, who would win?
Now, to make this even more fun, I'm going to do a random post position draw, so if your pick draws gate twenty-four, you might want to go with someone else.
I will also provide morning line odds and jockeys.
So here is the field for the Dream Kentucky Derby. . .
Post Horse Jockey Morning Line Odds
1. Bernardini J. Castalleno 15-1
2. Jazil F. Jara 30-1
3. Afleet Alex Jeremy Rose 9-2
4. Smarty Jones Stewart Elliot 8-1
5. Funny Cide Jose Santos 30-1
6. Point Given Gary Stevens 3-1
7. War Emblem Victor Espinoza 35-1
8. Rags to Riches J. Velazquez 20-1
9. Barbaro Edgar Prado 12-1
10. Red Bullet Martin Garcia 20-1
11. Curlin Robby Albarado 7-2
12. Street Sense Garrett Gomez 12-1
13. Birdstone Ramon Dominguez 15-1
14. Empire Maker Jerry Bailey 15-1
15. Commendable Pat Day 50-1
16. Giacomo Mike Smith 30-1
17. Rachel Alexandra Calvin Borel 10-1
18. Monarchos J. Chavez 25-1
19. Mine That Bird Russel Baze 25-1
20. Summer Bird Kent Desormeaux 15-1
21. Sarava Tyler Baze 50-1
22. Da'Tara Alan Garcia 75-1
23. Big Brown Julien Leparoux 6-1
24. Fusaichi Pegasus Joseph Talamo 30-1
Now, with the jockeys, I had to do a little guessing. Of the twenty-four horses, Kent Desormeaux, Calvin Borel, and Edgar Prado all rode three a piece, and Jerry Bailey two of them. I'm just guessing when I put Edgar Prado on Barbaro rather than Sarava or Birdstone, and I'm doing the same when I put Kent Desormeaux on Summer Bird, etc. etc. If those jockeys were actually faced with those decisions, they might do something different. But I had to make the decisions for them here, so I did what I thought they would do. As for the horses who are left without mounts, I put Martin Garcia on Red Bullet, Garrett Gomez on Street Sense, Joseph Talamo on Fusaichi Pegasus, Russel Baze on Mine That Bird, Tyler Baze on Sarava, and Ramon Dominguez on Birdstone. If you have any thoughts on who should ride who, feel free to tell me.
Now for my thoughts on this race. If I was going to try and pick the winner of this race, I would have to go with Curlin. Perhaps he was a bit inexperienced when he took his shot at the Triple Crown, but managed to finish third in the Derby, first in the Preakness, and second in the Belmont. And he went on to even greater things. . .
Of course, you can't ignore Afleet Alex and Point Given. Although Point Given failed to win the 2001 Kentucky Derby and had no obvious excuses, he go on to prove that he was an amazing colt, his career reaching the climax when he won the Belmont Stakes by twelve and a quarter lengths. As for Afleet Alex, I'm sure that if he had not come out of the 2005 Kentucky Derby with a lung infection, he would be a Triple Crown winner. He was one of those very special colts who could do incredible things. He just didn't have enough time to prove it.
What about the fillies? There would only be two running, Rags to Riches and Rachel Alexandra. The former had the stamina, the latter the speed. Both were great champions. Although I think that Rachel Alexandra was the better filly overall, I would go with Rags to Riches here. For one thing, Rachel Alexandra would have to break from post seventeen, while Rags to Riches breaks from gate eight. There’s also a lot of speed in this race, and I already question Rachel Alexandra's ability to go a mile and a quarter. Don't get me wrong, Rachel Alexandra is an amazing filly, one of the all time best, but I would go with Rags to Riches here.
What about value? If you were going to bet a horse with nice odds, I wouldn't overlook Birdstone and Summer Bird. With both of them at 15-1 (they would probably be higher if this race was to really be run) I think that they are both capable of winning a race like this. Giacomo might even have a shot. And don't forget Smarty Jones. . .
So here's the superfecta that I would do.
1 Curlin
2 Afleet Alex
3 Point Given
4 Summer Bird
Of course, I'm throwing out Smarty Jones, Big Brown, and a bunch of other talented horses at my own risk, but that's what I would do.
Who do you think would win? (Be sure to place your vote on my special poll. It is located off to the right near the top of my blog. You have until 11:59 PM on June 5th, 2010 to vote. Enjoy!)
-Keelerman
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