Question: How strong was the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile?
The answer to this question could potentially prove very helpful in determining how much of an influence the race will have on the 2014 Triple Crown season. It seems particularly pertinent to try and quantify the strength of the race this year, because the two previous renewals of the race were the complete opposites of each other in terms of eventual influence.
Case in point -- check out the list of races that were won by horses coming out of the 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and compare it to the list of races won by horses from the 2011 Juvenile.
2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile: The nine starters have subsequently won twelve races -- the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I), Indiana Derby (gr. II), Ohio Derby (gr. III), British Colombia Derby (gr. III), Easy Goer Stakes, Pasco Stakes, Aljamin Stakes, Plate Trial Stakes, and four allowance races.
2011 Breeders' Cup Juvenile: The thirteen starters won thirty-one races -- the Belmont Stakes (gr. I), TVG Pacific Classic (gr. I), Woodward Stakes (gr. I), Travers Stakes (gr. I), Florida Derby (gr. I), Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), Alysheba Stakes (gr. II), Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II), Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), San Felipe Stakes (gr. II), U.A.E. Derby (UAE-II), San Vicente Stakes (gr. II), Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II), Gotham Stakes (gr. III), Withers Stakes (gr. III), Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship Stakes (gr. III), Fair Grounds Handicap (gr. III), Colonel E. R. Bradley Handicap (gr. III), Kent Stakes (gr. III), Iowa Derby (gr. III), Carry Back Stakes (gr. III), Lazaro Barrera Memorial Stakes (gr. III), Ohio Derby (gr. III), Delta Mile Stakes, Count Fleet Stakes, Pasco Stakes, Unbridled Stakes, In Summation, Victoria Park Stakes, and two allowance optional claiming races.
The difference is astonishing. Starters from the 2012 Juvenile have come back to win just one grade I stakes, and just four graded stakes races overall. That compares very poorly with the six grade I races captured by starters from the 2011 Juvenile, along with the twenty-three overall graded stakes wins.
Granted, the starters from the 2011 Juvenile have had one extra season to accumulate major victories. But even still, the stock of the 2012 Juvenile starters doesn't appear ready to rise during the coming season -- race winner Shanghai Bobby is retired, as is fifth-place finisher Power Broker. He's Had Enough (2nd), Speak Logistics (7th), Title Contender (8th), and Monument (9th) have all dropped into listed stakes or allowance company, leaving Capo Bastone (3rd; could be a presence in the sprint division this year), Fortify (4th; also in allowance company at the present time), and Dynamic Sky (6th; unraced since a third in the Queen's Plate Stakes) to carry the torch in the major races of 2014.
But all that aside, my main point here is that in addition to the respective records of the two fields, the difference in quality showed itself dramatically in the 2012 and 2013 Kentucky Derbies. Of the thirteen 2011 Juvenile starters, nine made it to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May, comprising nearly half of the Derby field. In contrast, none of the 2012 starters made it to the following year's Derby.
So how strong was the 2013 edition of the Juvenile, and how much of an impact will at have on the 2014 Triple Crown season? Well, let's give it some thought. Here is the complete order of finish from the 2013 Juvenile:
1 New Year's Day
2 Havana
3 Strong Mandate
4 Bond Holder
5 Tap It Rich
6 Mexikoma
7 We Miss Artie
8 Dance With Fate
9 Diamond Bachelor
10 Smarty's Echo
11 Medal Count
12 Rum Count
13 Conquest Titan
The race took a major blow late last year when New Year's Day was retired with a minor injury, but the remaining twelve starters seemed prime to have a major impact on 2014. Havana, who won the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) prior to last year's Juvenile, is on target for a start in the Swale Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream, and should win his fair share of major races this year. Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner Strong Mandate will likely start as the favorite on Monday in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), and I really like his chances for having a big season. FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) victory Bond Holder is training well for a start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 22nd, where the long stretch run at Fair Grounds should mesh well with his late-running style. Tap It Rich gets his season started on Thursday in an allowance race at Santa Anita. Mexikoma is training exceptionally well at Palm Meadows, and should return to the races before too long. We Miss Artie was beaten just a head in the Kitten's Joy Stakes to begin 2014, and is targeting starts in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. II) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Dance with Fate won a turf allowance race last month, and could be gearing up for a start in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). Diamond Bachelor was recently fourth in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), but is probably better on turf, and could make some real noise once returned to that surface. Smarty's Echo finished ninth in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) to begin 2014, but showed great form on synthetic last year and could improve when returned to that surface, perhaps at Keeneland. Medal Count opened the season with an allowance victory on the turf at Gulfstream. Rum Point was tenth in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) in November, but is training well at Santa Anita. Conquest Titan returned to win an allowance race at Churchill, then ran second in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) and is targeting a start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II).
Basically, I am of the opinion that the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile was a very strong edition of the race, and I believe that they have the potential to match, or even surpass, the record of the 2011 Juvenile. The next few months should tell us more!
-Keelerman
So how strong was the 2013 edition of the Juvenile, and how much of an impact will at have on the 2014 Triple Crown season? Well, let's give it some thought. Here is the complete order of finish from the 2013 Juvenile:
1 New Year's Day
2 Havana
3 Strong Mandate
4 Bond Holder
5 Tap It Rich
6 Mexikoma
7 We Miss Artie
8 Dance With Fate
9 Diamond Bachelor
10 Smarty's Echo
11 Medal Count
12 Rum Count
13 Conquest Titan
The race took a major blow late last year when New Year's Day was retired with a minor injury, but the remaining twelve starters seemed prime to have a major impact on 2014. Havana, who won the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) prior to last year's Juvenile, is on target for a start in the Swale Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream, and should win his fair share of major races this year. Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) winner Strong Mandate will likely start as the favorite on Monday in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), and I really like his chances for having a big season. FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) victory Bond Holder is training well for a start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) on February 22nd, where the long stretch run at Fair Grounds should mesh well with his late-running style. Tap It Rich gets his season started on Thursday in an allowance race at Santa Anita. Mexikoma is training exceptionally well at Palm Meadows, and should return to the races before too long. We Miss Artie was beaten just a head in the Kitten's Joy Stakes to begin 2014, and is targeting starts in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. II) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I). Dance with Fate won a turf allowance race last month, and could be gearing up for a start in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). Diamond Bachelor was recently fourth in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), but is probably better on turf, and could make some real noise once returned to that surface. Smarty's Echo finished ninth in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) to begin 2014, but showed great form on synthetic last year and could improve when returned to that surface, perhaps at Keeneland. Medal Count opened the season with an allowance victory on the turf at Gulfstream. Rum Point was tenth in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) in November, but is training well at Santa Anita. Conquest Titan returned to win an allowance race at Churchill, then ran second in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) and is targeting a start in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II).
Basically, I am of the opinion that the 2013 Breeders' Cup Juvenile was a very strong edition of the race, and I believe that they have the potential to match, or even surpass, the record of the 2011 Juvenile. The next few months should tell us more!
-Keelerman
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