1. Top Billing (Curlin - Parade Queen, by A.P. Indy) - Trained by Shug McGaughey
He returned to the work tab on Saturday, breezing a solid half-mile in :49.30 at Payson Park. That clocking was just a fifth of a second off the bullet time, and shows that he remains in good form for his scheduled stakes debut in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II). I thought I was one of relatively few to consider this colt one of the Derby favorites, until he closed at a strong 13-1 in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool #2. Clearly, the bandwagon is filling!
2. Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He hasn't breezed since the Holy Bull, but I guess that's not surprising, since he's not expected to run again until the Florida Derby. In the meantime, there's not much to say about him, except that he -- like Top Billing -- closed at 13-1 in KDFW pool #2.
3. Strong Mandate (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
I expect he'll have one more workout before his scheduled return in the Southwest Stakes, where we'll get to find out how he has progressed from age two to three. With the tactical speed to be a part of fast early paces, enough stamina to keep on running after others have tired, and a pedigree that should carry him ten furlongs, any improvement at all could see him leapfrog Cairo Prince on my list.
4. Honor Code (A.P. Indy - Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) Trained by Shug McGaughey
Bettors made him the 12-1 individual favorite in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool #2, but he has still yet to record a workout since his minor setback, and time may be running out for making the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) on March 1st. If that happens, then the next most logical targets would be the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) on March 8th or the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) on March 15th.
5. Shared Belief (Candy Ride - Common Hope, by Storm Cat) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
The results of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes seriously flattered this colt, who defeated Candy Boy with ease in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), but Shared Belief is only now back in training after dealing with a hoof issue, and time is running out for making the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) on March 8th, the next stop on California's road to the Kentucky Derby. If he misses that race, then a complete change in plans may be necessary for this immensely talented colt, with shipping out-of-state perhaps becoming necessary.
6. Candy Boy (Candy Ride - She's an Eleven, by In Excess) Trained by John Sadler
John Sadler had him ready to run in the Robert B. Lewis, and Candy Boy lived up to expectations in winning a very fast renewal of this Santa Anita Derby prep. Allowed to race fourth early on, but just two lengths off of quick fractions (46.80, 1:10.84), Candy Boy moved up well in the fourth quarter mile -- which was run in a very strong :24.80 -- and won by a half-length from Chitu, stopping the clock for 1 1/16th miles in 1:41.83. All told, he ran his final five-sixteenths in about :30.69 seconds, which is an excellent fraction for a race of this type. And most impressively, Candy Boy seemed to be just getting geared up at the finish! Don't look now, but jockey Gary Stevens may be poised to add another Kentucky Derby to his long list of accomplishments.2. Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
He hasn't breezed since the Holy Bull, but I guess that's not surprising, since he's not expected to run again until the Florida Derby. In the meantime, there's not much to say about him, except that he -- like Top Billing -- closed at 13-1 in KDFW pool #2.
3. Strong Mandate (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
I expect he'll have one more workout before his scheduled return in the Southwest Stakes, where we'll get to find out how he has progressed from age two to three. With the tactical speed to be a part of fast early paces, enough stamina to keep on running after others have tired, and a pedigree that should carry him ten furlongs, any improvement at all could see him leapfrog Cairo Prince on my list.
4. Honor Code (A.P. Indy - Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) Trained by Shug McGaughey
Bettors made him the 12-1 individual favorite in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool #2, but he has still yet to record a workout since his minor setback, and time may be running out for making the Gotham Stakes (gr. III) on March 1st. If that happens, then the next most logical targets would be the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) on March 8th or the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) on March 15th.
5. Shared Belief (Candy Ride - Common Hope, by Storm Cat) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
The results of the Robert B. Lewis Stakes seriously flattered this colt, who defeated Candy Boy with ease in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), but Shared Belief is only now back in training after dealing with a hoof issue, and time is running out for making the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) on March 8th, the next stop on California's road to the Kentucky Derby. If he misses that race, then a complete change in plans may be necessary for this immensely talented colt, with shipping out-of-state perhaps becoming necessary.
6. Candy Boy (Candy Ride - She's an Eleven, by In Excess) Trained by John Sadler
7. Conquest Titan (Birdstone - Miner's Secret, by Mineshaft) Trained by Mark Casse
He's been confirmed as a starter for the Fountain of Youth (gr. II), which should set him up well for bigger and better things further down the road. We know he likes Churchill Downs, and we know he possesses a potent stretch kick. Now he just needs to secure enough points to make the Derby field, and a top-three effort in the Fountain of Youth could potentially do just that.
8. Commissioner (A.P. Indy - Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Breezed five furlongs in 1:00.90 on February 9th at Palm Meadows Training Center, which was another solid step toward a start in the Fountain of Youth. He got a lot of support in the second Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool, closing as the seventh individual choice at 22-1. If he holds his own -- or defeats -- Top Billing and Conquest Titan in the Fountain of Youth, expect that price to drop in the next future pool.
9. Vicar's in Trouble (Into Mischief - Vibrant, by Vicar) Trained by Michael Maker
He threw down another really solid workout at Fair Grounds on Sunday, blazing five furlongs in 1:00 3/5, which was the fifth-fastest of eight workouts at that distance and just one-fifth of a second off the bullet time. As I've mentioned before, his pedigree does not inspire confidence in his ability to handle ten furlongs in top company, but he was so impressive in the LeComte that I'm hoping his raw talent will trump his genetic disposition.He's been confirmed as a starter for the Fountain of Youth (gr. II), which should set him up well for bigger and better things further down the road. We know he likes Churchill Downs, and we know he possesses a potent stretch kick. Now he just needs to secure enough points to make the Derby field, and a top-three effort in the Fountain of Youth could potentially do just that.
8. Commissioner (A.P. Indy - Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Breezed five furlongs in 1:00.90 on February 9th at Palm Meadows Training Center, which was another solid step toward a start in the Fountain of Youth. He got a lot of support in the second Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool, closing as the seventh individual choice at 22-1. If he holds his own -- or defeats -- Top Billing and Conquest Titan in the Fountain of Youth, expect that price to drop in the next future pool.
9. Vicar's in Trouble (Into Mischief - Vibrant, by Vicar) Trained by Michael Maker
10. Ride On Curlin (Curlin - Magical Ride, by Storm Cat) Trained by William Gowen
He is tenaciously clinging to this tenth spot over a number of horses, including Midnight Hawk and Chitu. I really don't have any idea what to expect from him in the Southwest Stakes, but his recent workouts have been strong, including a recent five furlongs in 1:03 2/5 at Oaklawn Park. I have the feeling that he's either going to run huge on Monday or run up the track, so don't expect him to stay here in position #10 for much longer -- he's either going to rise up dramatically, or fall off entirely. I'm hoping it's the former!
In order to make room for Candy Boy on this week's list, I unfortunately had to drop Midnight Hawk from his position at the bottom of the rankings. His third-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis was not quite enough for him to move past Ride On Curlin and retain a spot on the list. But that said, I was encouraged by Midnight Hawk's performance for the most part. He showed a new dimension in rating off the pace a bit, although he was a bit rank while doing so, and made a nice run to challenge for the lead in the homestretch before tiring just a bit at the finish. It's important to remember that this race was only his third start, and his first around two turns. With that in mind, Midnight Hawk looks primed to improve next time out, and could easily rejoin my top ten sometime during the coming month.
Let me also take a moment to praise Chitu, the runner-up in the Robert B. Lewis. Really, he was facing an even stiffer challenge than Midnight Hawk, for this was Chitu's first start at a distance longer than six furlongs! I must admit to being somewhat surprised by the strength of his performance, for Chitu chased some very honest fractions throughout the race, courageously turned back a bid from Midnight Hawk in the homestretch, and just succumbed to Candy Boy late while staying on strongly to the finish. Consider him to be in a tie for tenth with Ride On Curlin, at least until that colt starts in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) next Monday.
And while on the topic of horses that just missed the cut, I should mention that Pimpernel was very impressive in breaking his maiden at Santa Anita on Saturday. Trained by Bob Baffert, the colt flashed good speed while making his fourth start, then stayed on strongly in the stretch through a :23.52 final quarter to win by nearly three lengths in 1:08.69. He looks bound for stakes company after that performance, and while his pedigree suggests that he may eventually prove best sprinting, there's no denying that he has the talent to make some noise in the near future.
-Keelerman
He is tenaciously clinging to this tenth spot over a number of horses, including Midnight Hawk and Chitu. I really don't have any idea what to expect from him in the Southwest Stakes, but his recent workouts have been strong, including a recent five furlongs in 1:03 2/5 at Oaklawn Park. I have the feeling that he's either going to run huge on Monday or run up the track, so don't expect him to stay here in position #10 for much longer -- he's either going to rise up dramatically, or fall off entirely. I'm hoping it's the former!
In order to make room for Candy Boy on this week's list, I unfortunately had to drop Midnight Hawk from his position at the bottom of the rankings. His third-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis was not quite enough for him to move past Ride On Curlin and retain a spot on the list. But that said, I was encouraged by Midnight Hawk's performance for the most part. He showed a new dimension in rating off the pace a bit, although he was a bit rank while doing so, and made a nice run to challenge for the lead in the homestretch before tiring just a bit at the finish. It's important to remember that this race was only his third start, and his first around two turns. With that in mind, Midnight Hawk looks primed to improve next time out, and could easily rejoin my top ten sometime during the coming month.
Let me also take a moment to praise Chitu, the runner-up in the Robert B. Lewis. Really, he was facing an even stiffer challenge than Midnight Hawk, for this was Chitu's first start at a distance longer than six furlongs! I must admit to being somewhat surprised by the strength of his performance, for Chitu chased some very honest fractions throughout the race, courageously turned back a bid from Midnight Hawk in the homestretch, and just succumbed to Candy Boy late while staying on strongly to the finish. Consider him to be in a tie for tenth with Ride On Curlin, at least until that colt starts in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) next Monday.
And while on the topic of horses that just missed the cut, I should mention that Pimpernel was very impressive in breaking his maiden at Santa Anita on Saturday. Trained by Bob Baffert, the colt flashed good speed while making his fourth start, then stayed on strongly in the stretch through a :23.52 final quarter to win by nearly three lengths in 1:08.69. He looks bound for stakes company after that performance, and while his pedigree suggests that he may eventually prove best sprinting, there's no denying that he has the talent to make some noise in the near future.
-Keelerman
No comments:
Post a Comment