Saturday, February 01, 2014

Triple Crown Countdown 2-1-14

The first day of February brings us a trio of graded stakes races for two-year-olds, led by the $250,000 Withers Stakes (gr. III) at Aqueduct, which will award a total of 17 Kentucky Derby qualifications points to the top four finishers. Let's take a look at who's running!

Withers Stakes (gr. III)

In this small six-horse field, Samraat looks like the horse to beat. Trained by Richard Violette Junior, this New York-bred son of Noble Causeway is unbeaten in three starts thus far, including a 16 3/4-length romp in the Damon Runyon Stakes here at Aqueduct on December 18th. His main opposition is expected to come from Uncle Sigh, a fellow New York-bred that broke his maiden at Aqueduct on December 27th by 14 1/2 lengths. However, should the two favorites hook up in an early duel for the lead, Jerome Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Classic Giacnroll should be flying late from off the pace. Scotland, who finished third in the Jerome, could also contend if he steps up a bit in his second start around two turns.
SELECTIONS: Samraat, Uncle Sigh, Scotland, Classic Giacnroll

Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III)

Cousin Stephen, who finished a close fifth in a recent allowance race at Gulfstream behind Commissioner and Top Billing, is the morning line favorite at 3-1 for trainer Chad Brown. However, the colt that I'm intrigued by is Noble Cornerstone, who broke his maiden by 5 1/2 lengths last November at Aqueduct before rallying to finish second by a neck in the Springboard Mile Stakes at Remington Park, earning good speed figures for both performances. Trained by Wesley Ward, Noble Cornerstone has enough tactical speed to be involved from the start, as well as the ability to rate off the pace, which should make him dangerous with the blinkers coming off for the first time. Harpoon, who finished second in his first three starts for trainer Todd Pletcher before breaking through going a mile in his fourth start, should definitely be in the mix, but will have to work out a good trip from post position one. Vinceremos, another Todd Pletcher-trainee, looks slower on paper but will have Hall of Fame rider Edgar Prado in the saddle. It's encouraging that Pletcher has scratched Vinceremos from the Hutcheson Stakes to run here. And one mustn't forget about Matador, who won Woodbine's Cup and Saucer Stakes two starts back for trainer Mark Casse. He is eligible to improve while making his dirt debut, and has been training sharply at Palm Meadows.
SELECTIONS: Noble Cornerstone, Matador, Harpoon, Cousin Stephen

Hutcheson Stakes (gr. III)

A field of nine will head to post in this seven-furlong sprint, following the scratch of Vincemeros. Wildcat Red is favored off of a head defeat in the one-mile Gulfstream Park Derby, and the speedy colt should appreciate the slight cut back in distance. With recently-crowned Eclipse champion Javiar Castellano aboard, Wildcat Red looms as the horse to beat. Trail Blaze broke his maiden impressively first time out at Aqueduct in November, and while he could only manage a fourth-place finish in the Spectacular Bid Stakes in January, he has the potentially to rebound sharply today. Pablo Del Monte, who finished fourth in the Gulfstream Park Derby, and C. Zee, runner-up in the Spectacular Bid, are other logical contenders.
SELECTIONS: Wildcat Red, Pablo Del Monte, Trail Blaze, C. Zee

-Keelerman

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