While every Kentucky Derby prep race has the potential to
impact and influence the eventual outcome of the big race, there's no doubt
that some prep races feel more important, and more meaningful, than others.
Which races take on this feeling of importance varies from year to year, but
for me, the 2014 edition of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) has entered the
category of importance. The reason is that the caliber of this year's field is
extraordinary -- perhaps the best in years.
So far this weekend, we have already seen a pair of
graded stakes races for three-year-olds -- the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)
at Golden Gate Fields and the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita. Both
were won in impressive fashion by talented horses with the potential to make a
big impact on the Kentucky Derby trail. But for me, the Southwest Stakes has
the potential to tower over them both in terms of eventual influence and
impact, so without any delay, let's take a closer look!
Southwest Stakes (gr. III)
There are two horses in this race that I'm particularly
interested in seeing, as both are currently included in my Kentucky Derby Top
Ten rankings. They are Strong Mandate, winner of the Hopeful Stakes (gr.
I) last year, and Ride On Curlin, third in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I)
and most recently winner of a six-furlong allowance race here at Oaklawn.
Both Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin have flashed speed
in recent starts. The former helped set a blazing pace in the Breeders' Cup
Juvenile (gr. I) and held on to be third in a very gritty performance. Ride On
Curlin tracked a :21 4/5-second opening quarter in his allowance victory before
drawing off to score by 2 1/2 lengths. But while both colts have run well on
the lead, it's not as though they need to be on the lead in order to win.
Strong Mandate tracked the pace in the Hopeful Stakes before winning by nearly
ten lengths in his most impressive performance, and Ride On Curlin closed from
out of the clouds in the Champagne Stakes. So, given their versatility, they
should be able to adapt to whatever pace scenario presents itself -- which is a
good thing, because it looks as though the pace of the Southwest Stakes could
be fast.
Just consider the number of horses in the Southwest that
have showcased a desire to race near the lead. On the rail, there is Tapiture,
winner of the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) in November after racing
close to the front. He has shown excellent speed throughout his career, and
will most likely be sent for the lead while breaking from the rail, in order to
avoid getting trapped in a pocket. Then's there's Street Sense Stakes winner Coastline,
who has never actually led during the early stages of a race, but whose best
races have come when right behind the early leaders. Tanzanite Cat won
the Smarty Jones Stakes here at Oaklawn racing first or second throughout, and
broke his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion. Louies Flower showed excellent
speed in his first four races, including a wire-to-wire allowance victory,
before tracking the pace in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes en route to
victory. Kendall's Boy comes into the Southwest off of a gate-to-wire
victory in a six-furlong allowance race. Walt led at the half-mile and
three-quarter mile calls of the Smarty Jones Stakes and was never worse than
second at any call. He also broke his maiden by almost ten lengths while
leading from the start. Son of Dixie, most recently third in a one-mile
allowance race here at Oaklawn, led at that first two calls of that race.
So of the twelve horses in the Southwest Stakes, nine of
them have shown a tendency to race near the front. With that in mind, it might
be wise to look to the three closers -- Paganol, Fire Starter,
and Bourbonize -- to try and find a colt that can take advantage of what
could be a blazing early pace.
Of the three, Bourbonize looks the most intriguing
on paper. He is unbeaten in two starts thus far, having won his debut by two
lengths sprinting seven furlongs at Churchill and coming back to win a one-mile
allowance here at Oaklawn by four lengths. In the latter performance, he was 6
1/4 lengths back early on before rallying impressively on the far outside. He
will have to overcome starting from the far outside post position, but at 15-1
on the morning line, he's definitely worth a look.
Fire Starter, 20-1 on the morning line, could also be a contender. After losing his
first three starts, he broke through with a 10 3/4-length victory in a one-mile
maiden special weight at Laurel, then finished fith in the Smarty Jones Stakes
after failing to relax early on. With jockey Robby Albarado back to ride this
colt for a second straight time, I'm hopeful that Fire Starter will settle a
bit more early on and come running strongly late. The question is, can he
out-kick Bourbonize?
The final closer to mention is Paganol, who chased
fast fractions in his debut on January 11th and just got up late to win the
six-furlong maiden special weight by a nose over Street Strategy, who returned
to break his maiden in strong fashion on January 30th. While Paganol does
appear talented, he will be facing several major hurdles today, as this will be
only his second start, his first start around two turns, and his first beyond
six furlongs -- not to mention the fact that his pedigree seems slanted toward
speed. For bettors, though, it may be a moot point, because Paganol will run as
a coupled entry with the well-regarded Tanzanite Cat, and if you like the
latter, you'll get Paganol as a bonus.
So for my top four selections, I'm going to take Strong
Mandate on top, despite the possibility of pace issues, because I feel he's
talented enough to overcome them, as he nearly did in the Breeders' Cup. For
second, I'll take Ride On Curlin, and hope that he picks today to revert
to his off-the-pace running style from the Champagne. For third and fourth, Fire
Starter and Bourbonize should be coming hard at the finish, and I
think that they can both hit the board at attractive prices.
-Keelerman
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