1. Top Billing (Curlin - Parade Queen, by A.P. Indy) - Trained by Shug McGaughey
Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) Pool #2 Morning Line Odds: 15-1
With Honor Code now out of the Fountain of Youth, Shug McGaughey has named Top Billing as a definite starter for that race, which means that Top Billing will follow virtually the same road to the Derby that Orb took last year. Really, all I want to see from him in the Fountain of Youth is another strong finish. A bit more early speed would obviously be ideal, but another solid stretch rally to finish second, or even third, will likely be enough for him to retain this spot at the top of my list.
2. Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
KDFW Pool #2 Morning Line Odds: 8-1
An examination of Cairo Prince's pedigree reveals a colt surely capable of traversing eight or nine furlongs in top company, but will ten furlongs be within his reach? His sire, Pioneerof the Nile, won the grade I Santa Anita Derby at nine furlongs, and also finished second in the 2009 Kentucky Derby (gr. I) at ten furlongs, albeit nearly seven lengths behind runaway winner Mine That Bird. In turn, Pioneerof the Nile is by Empire Maker, winner of the 2003 Belmont Stakes (gr. I) at twelve furlongs and runner-up in the Kentucky Derby. Cairo Prince's dam, Holy Bubbette, was a minor stakes winner at six furlongs, but while all three of her previous foals have won races, only one -- Holdin Bullets -- was ever successful beyond 6 1/2 furlongs. Holy Bubbette is by Holy Bull, Horse of the Year in 1994 during a campaign that included a victory in the ten-furlong Travers Stakes (gr. I), but Holy Bull -- while very talented -- definitely possessed more speed than stamina, and he has tended to pass that trait on to his progeny. That said, Holy Bull did sire 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, as well as Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Macho Uno, who has -- in turn -- produced Breeders' Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man. Thus, while Cairo Prince's pedigree may be slanted toward speed, I believe there is should be enough stamina sprinkled through the generations to carry him ten furlongs on the first Saturday in May.
3. Strong Mandate (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
KDFW Pool #2 Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Following his bullet five-furlong breeze at Oaklawn on January 27th, he came right back on Sunday and threw down another bullet, this one being a half-mile in :48 3/5. It's a good thing that the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) is less than two weeks away, because this colt is ready to run!
4. Honor Code (A.P. Indy - Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) Trained by Shug McGaughey
KDFW Pool #2 Morning Line Odds: 10-1
Shug McGaughey has chosen to move him from Payson Park to Gulfstream Park, where McGaughey will be able to keep a closer eye on him as the colt recovers from slightly bruised ankles. Hopefully, Honor Code will return to the work tab before too long.
5. Shared Belief (Candy Ride - Common Hope, by Storm Cat) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
KDFW Pool #2 Morning Line Odds: 10-1
With the Robert B. Lewis now less than a week away, and with Shared Belief having not recorded an official workout since January 3rd, it seems likely that the colt will have to bypass the race and target a different race for his first start of the year. Logical possibilities in California include the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita on March 8th, and even the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate on February 15th, assuming that Shared Belief bounces back quickly from his foot abscess.
6. Conquest Titan (Birdstone - Miner's Secret, by Mineshaft) Trained by Mark Casse
KDFW Pool #2 Morning Line Odds: 30-1
It's almost eerie to note the similarities between Conquest Titan and 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. Both are sons of Birdstone out of mares with "Mine" in their names; both ran with success in Canada before finishing last in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile while attempting to be part of the early pace; both reacted to a change in running style at Churchill Downs to register impressive last-to-first victories. Now, all Conquest Titan has to do is win the Derby! :)
7. Commissioner (A.P. Indy - Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold) Trained by Todd Pletcher
KDFW Pool #2 Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Earlier in this young year, Commissioner beat Top Billing by a neck in a Gulfstream allowance race. In the weeks since then, Top Billing has come back to romp in another allowance race, which earned him the top position on this list. That's why I'm thrilled that both Top Billing and Commissioner are targeting the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream on February 22nd, for that race will provide a prime opportunity to gauge how the two colts have progressed since their last meeting.
8. Vicar's in Trouble (Into Mischief - Vibrant, by Vicar) Trained by Michael Maker
KDFW Pool #2 Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Returned to the work tab on Sunday for the first time since his LeComte romp, breezing a half-mile in :49 2/5 seconds. He is being prepped for a start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds on February 22nd, where he will meet up with FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) winner Bond Holder and Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III) winner Rise Up. Anything near a repeat of his LeComte performance will see him move up this list.
9. Ride On Curlin (Curlin - Magical Ride, by Storm Cat) Trained by William Gowen
KDFW Pool #2 Morning Line Odds: 7-5 (part of the "All Others" option)
His path along the Derby trail will pretty much be determined by his performance in the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on February 17th. Either he will live up to expectations and turn in a strong performance against Strong Mandate, or he will disappoint again and likely drop off the trail. The problem is, we still don't know what this colt's preferred running style is. He showed terrific speed while breaking his maiden in track-record time for 5 1/2 furlongs, but closed from way back to finish third in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) last year. His recent allowance victory came after tracking a blazing early pace. So I really wouldn't be surprised to see him anywhere in the early stages of the Southwest.
10. Midnight Hawk (Midnight Lute - Miss Wineshine, by Wolf Power) Trained by Bob Baffert
KDFW Pool #2 Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Breezed five furlongs in 1:00 3/5 on February 2nd at Santa Anita in preparation for a start in this Saturday's Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), where he will face Candy Boy and Diamond Bachelor, among others. Whether he wins or loses isn't particularly important, just so long as he stays on stronger in the homestretch than he did in the Sham, and doesn't drift around as much.
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