Sunday, February 16, 2014

Triple Crown Countdown 2-16-14

In recent years, the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita has proven a respectable testing ground for promising Triple Crown prospects. In 2012, grade I winner Creative Cause finished third, and went on to win the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) and place in both the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and Preakness Stakes (gr. I). In 2011, The Factor won the San Vicente, went on to claim the Rebel Stakes (gr. II), and later became a top-notch sprinter. And in 2010, Sidney's Candy won the race en route to victories in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. I).

San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)

The morning line favorite is Kobe's Back, who was so impressive while winning the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes in his debut last June. After breaking in the air and spotting the field many, many lengths, Kobe's Back came roaring down the homestretch to win by 3 1/4 lengths, a performance that made him the odds-on favorite five months later in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III). Stretching out to seven furlongs off a layoff, Kobe's Back ran very well after getting off to yet another slow start, but was unable to challenge runaway winner Shared Belief, who won by nearly eight lengths en route to being honored as the champion two-year-old male of 2013. Meanwhile, Kobe's Back had the rest of the field measured, finishing second by nearly five lengths from Brother Soldier.

Kobe's Back made his final start of the year in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), where he would try two turns for the first time. He seemed to be traveling well enough through the early stages of the race, but clipped heels with a half-mile remaining and never contended thereafter, finishing a distant tenth. He has not raced since then, but he has trained very well for his return, and should appreciate the seven-furlong distance of today's race. Perhaps the biggest question is whether he can handle the Santa Anita dirt as well as he did the Cushion Track at Betfair Hollywood Park, over which all three of his starts have come.

The most intriguing candidate for an upset is Cherubim, who finished eighth in his debut at Hollywood last November before returning to win a six-furlong maiden race at Santa Anita by 3 1/4 lengths -- despite running the opening half-mile in :44.06! Cherubim's performance was made all the more impressive by the subsequent success of runner-up Chelios and third-place finisher Pimpernel, both of which have come back to break their maidens in impressive fashion. Given the blazing speed that Cherubim has demonstrated, and the quality of competition he has faced, I believe he has an edge over late-running Kobe's Back, who will have to uncork quite a rally to reel in Cherubim.

Papa Turf also warrants respect, based off of his runner-up effort in the San Pedro Stakes to Indianapolis, who would have been favored here had he not come down with a cough and been forced to miss the race. Papa Turf has kept good company throughout his career, tackling such stakes-placed colts as Chitu and Kristo, but when he took on Kobe's Back in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes, he could only finish fourth after setting the pace. He has enough speed to be a pace factor from the outset, but it's more likely that he'll take back just a bit and try to avoid a speed duel with Cherubim.

Bob Baffert, who has won the last three runnings of this race and eight renewals overall, will be represented here by Roger Rocket, who overcame a slow start to break his maiden by a head sprinting 5-1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita last month. That was definitely a performance that this son of Pulpit can improve upon, but it's worth noting that the blazing early pace (:21.19 opening quarter) surely aided his rally, and that Roger Rocket's last three workouts haven't been as quick as the ones he turned in prior to his debut.

Rprettyboyfloyd is still a maiden after two starts, but he did finish second in both while showcasing impressive late rallies. In his debut, he was eleven lengths back early on before closing to just 3 1/4 lengths back at the finish, and the winner was Bayern, who returned to so impressively dominate an allowance race on Thursday. In his second start, Rprettyboyfloyd took on the above-mentioned Chelios and just missed by a half-length at the finish, despite trailing by 3 1/2 lengths at the eighth pole. Despite his poor record on paper, Reprettyboyfloyd seems capable enough to contend for at least a top-three finish here, and that belief is reflected by his relatively low morning line price of 4-1.

Rounding out the field is Grazen's Hope, who is unbeaten in two starts at Golden Gate Fields. Sprinting six furlongs in his debut, Grazen's Hope flashed impressive speed en route to a two-length victory, and while he wasn't quite as impressive in his second start -- a one-mile allowance race -- he nevertheless drew off late to win by 1 3/4 lengths, and he should enjoy the cutback in distance for today's race. Unfortunately, he has drawn the rail, and will likely have to use his speed hard from the start in order to secure good position.

Selections: Cherubim, Kobe's Back, Papa Turf, Rprettyboyfloyd

Other Races of Note

There is another stakes race for three-year-olds being on today at Santa Anita, that being the 6 1/2-furlong Baffle Me Stakes on the downhill turf course. The morning line favorite is Michael Machowsky's Gangnam Guy, who finished a strong second in an allowance race on the dowhill turf course last month. But perhaps the most intriguing entrant is Life Is a Joy, who has run very well in California-bred stakes races while competing against the likes of Tamarando and California Chrome. This will be his turf debut, and I'm curious to see how he does. Royal Banker, twice placed in turf stakes races, and the unbeaten Red Outlaw are other logical contenders.

At Oaklawn Park, seven three-year-olds will take on a trio of four-year-olds in a 1 1/16th-mile maiden special weight. The Mark Casse-trained duo of Dynamic Impact and Majestic Sunset (the latter being stakes-placed in Canada) will race as a coupled entry, and are the morning line favorites at 5-2. I will be particularly interested in seeing how Dynamic Impact performs, since he finished a distant second to the promising Street Strategy in a race similar to this earlier in the Oaklawn meet. Should Dynamic Impact prove victorious, it would confirm Street Strategy as a colt to watch during the coming months.

-Keelerman

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