Kentucky Derby Top Ten 2-28-14

1. Top Billing (Curlin - Parade Queen, by A.P. Indy) - Trained by Shug McGaughey

Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 8-1

Overall, I really liked his third-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), even if he did fall short of catching the two leaders despite a ground-saving ride. The presence of a speed bias at Gulfstream last Saturday surely hindered his chances to some extent, and even though he seemed to be flattening out a bit in the homestretch, that's not surprising given how fast he ran the middle portion of the race. While sweeping past horses on the far turn, he ran his third-quarter mile in approximately :23.28 seconds -- and that came on the heels of a second quarter in about :22.47! Thus, he ran an internal half-mile in approximately :45.75 seconds, which is absolutely flying, and he still ran his final five-sixteenths in about :30.77 seconds. A little more time, a little more distance, and fairer racetrack may be all he needs to step forward and win his next prep race.

2. Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 8-1
It was announced today that Darley has acquired a majority interest in this colt, who breezed a half-mile in :49.90 on February 22nd. He will now race in the all-blue colors of Godolphin, which will add a little extra intrigue to the Derby trail as Sheikh Mohammed continues his quest to win the Run for the Roses.

3. Honor Code (A.P. Indy - Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) Trained by Shug McGaughey
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 10-1
He has continued to train forwardly at Gulfstream Park, recording a pair of half-mile works in :49.71 and :52.06 on February 19th and 25th, respectively. He's got time for two more workouts prior to his seasonal debut in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II), so hopefully, we'll see him go a bit quicker next week.

4. Candy Boy (Candy Ride - She's an Eleven, by In Excess) Trained by John Sadler
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 20-1

On February 26th, he recorded his first workout since winning the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, breezing an easy half-mile in :48 1/5 at Santa Anita Park. His list of challengers for the Santa Anita Derby will become clearer following next week's San Felipe Stakes, in which many of California's other top three-year-olds will sort themselves out.

5. Strong Mandate (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Came right back after the Southwest with a bullet half-mile breeze on February 25th, clocking the distance in a sharp :48 flat. With a recent race under his belt, he should be much sharper for the Rebel Stakes, but he'll have to be, with Honor Code shipping in for the race.

6. Bayern (Offlee Wild - Alittlebitearly, by Thunder Gulch) Trained by Bob Baffert
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 15-1
No horse since Apollo in 1882 has won the Kentucky Derby without having raced as a two-year-old, so Bayern will have the dreaded "Apollo Curse" hanging over his head as he prepares for the Derby. But it's encouraging that Bob Baffert nearly broke the curse a couple years ago with Bodemeister, so if any trainer is capable of pulling it off, it's probably Baffert.

7. Conquest Titan (Birdstone - Miner's Secret, by Mineshaft) Trained by Mark Casse
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 30-1

After passing on the Fountain of Youth for a variety of reasons, the connections of Conquest Titan have decided to bring their colt back in the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) on March 8th. I must admit to being a bit surprised by that decision, but after thinking it over, it really makes a lot of sense. The Tampa Bay Derby will provide Conquest Titan with an opportunity to pick up some much-needed Kentucky Derby qualification points over a racetrack more conducive to his closing kick than Gulfstream, and he won't have to take on the likes of Cairo Prince, Top Billing, Wildcat Red, General a Rod, and others.

8. Intense Holiday (Harlan's Holiday - Intensify, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Todd Pletcher
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 15-1
Demonstrated an impressive late rally in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), closing his final five-sixteenths in a respectable :30 1/5 to just nail pace-setting Albano at the wire. I'd still like to see him do that in a race with a faster early pace (they ran the opening six furlongs of the Risen Star in 1:13 flat), but there's no denying that Intense Holiday took a major step forward last Saturday, and has earned his place among the elite Derby contenders.

9. Tapiture (Tapit - Free Spin, by Olympio) Trained by Steve Asmussen
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 15-1

I'm still not certain where I should put him on this list, and I will likely remain uncertain until he runs again. Do you reward him for stepping up so impressively in his first start of the year? Should we be taking into consideration that he got an absolutely perfect trip? The coming weeks will tell us more.

10. General a Rod (Roman Ruler - Dynamite Eyes, by Dynaformer) Trained by Michael Maker
KDFW Pool #3 Morning Line Odds: 20-1
Including him instead of Wildcat Red in this tenth position is really splitting hairs, since they have been separated by noses in both of their meetings this year, but I have given the edge to General a Rod -- even though he lost the Fountain of Youth to Wildcat Red -- because his pedigree is a more stamina-oriented than that of his rival. He's really done nothing wrong thus far, and will likely come into the Florida Derby as a bit of an underdog thanks to the reputations of Top Billing, Cairo Prince, and even Wildcat Red. Perhaps that's a good thing -- remember Take Charge Indy's upset of Union Rags and El Padrino in the 2012 Florida Derby?

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There are plenty of horses just outside the top ten that I'd really like to include, but just couldn't bring myself to do so for some reason or another. Noticeably absent from this week's Top Ten is Shared Belief, who still hasn't recorded a workout since early January. Time is running out for making the Derby, and with so many other talented colts stepping up, I reluctantly decided to drop him from my list.

Another colt I didn't want to drop was Vicar's in Trouble, who didn't have a very good trip while finishing third in the Risen Star Stakes. But he was 5 1/2 lengths back of the top two finishers at the wire, and may not be suited to the ten-furlong distance of the Kentucky Derby. Still, I think he can rebound with a better trip in the Louisiana Derby, and I'm not counting him out yet.

Commissioner's sixth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth led to his removal from my list, but I actually thought his performance was pretty good. True, he didn't present a serious challenge at any point in the race, but perhaps he wasn't comfortable racing down along the inside. Regardless, he stayed on fairly well in the homestretch, losing just 1 3/4 lengths on the leaders from the eighth pole to the wire, and finished well clear of bottom half of the field, which included We Miss Artie, C. Zee, and Almost Famous. And given that Commissioner was in mid-pack throughout, the speed-favoring nature of the Gulfstream main track didn't help matters any. Perhaps a different racetrack and better post position will help Commissioner turn things around next time out -- I personally believe the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) would be a perfect spot for him. Overall, I think the Fountain of Youth was a performance that Commissioner can build upon, and it wouldn't shock me to see him progress in much the same manner that Drosselmeyer did in 2010, and wind up a legitimate contender for the Belmont Stakes.

As I mentioned in my section on General a Rod, the decision to leave off Wildcat Red is really splitting hairs, but the colt's sprint-oriented pedigree has me worried about his potential to stretch out beyond a mile and a sixteenth, especially in the absence of a speed-favoring surface.

Constitution, Tonalist, and Mexikoma -- the top three finishers in a 8.5-furlong allowance race on the Fountain of Youth undercard -- all stamped themselves as up-and-coming Derby contenders. Mexikoma in particular caught my eye, closing ground well despite slow early fractions in his first start since finishing sixth in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I). I look forward to seeing how all three of these colts progress in the near future.

-Keelerman