El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)
In a race that seems lacking in early speed, Enterprising seems the most likely to take advantage of the situation. Trained by Tom Proctor, the son of Elusive Quality won the one-mile Eddie Logan Stakes on the Santa Anita turf two starts back, then went down by just a half-length in the California Derby here at Golden Gate Fields, demonstrating an affinity for this track. Ridden that day by Aaron Gryder, Enterprising will be ridden here by Gary Stevens, who was aboard for the colt's first three starts. From post position five, I expect Enterprising to work out a great trip, and I think he'll be tough to catch in the homestretch.The most logical candidate to defeat Enterprising would appear to be Tamarando, who won the grade I Del Mar Futurity as a two-year-old last September, and has since placed third in both the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) and CashCall Futurity (gr. I). Most recently runner-up in the California Cup Derby at Santa Anita, Tamarando seems to be considerably better on synthetic than on dirt, and should appreciate the switch to Tapeta for today's race. However, as a deep closer, he is reliant on a fast early pace to set up his late run, and the expected pace scenario of the El Camimo Real Derby may compromise his chances. But it's hard to ignore the potent jockey/trainer combination of Russell Baze and Jerry Hollendorfer, who have won this race together on four occasions.
It's also important not to overlook Dance With Fate, who will start from the far outside post position. The Peter Eurton-trainee placed second in both the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) and the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year, defeating Tamarando in the latter. He ended his juvenile season with an eighth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but returned on January 24th to win a one-mile turf allowance race at Santa Anita in impressive fashion. He possesses a very strong stretch kick, and has shown enough early speed in the past to be near the early lead if necessary, so expect Dance With Fate to adapt to whatever pace scenario presents itself, and put in a good run from there.
One very intriguing entrant is Craftsman, an Irish-bred colt that began his career in his native country, where he won the group III JRA Killavullan Stakes by a length on October 26th. Subsequently sold and shipped to the United States, he made his American debut in the Eddie Logan Stakes, where he finished fifth behind Enterprising. A series of strong workouts since then suggest that Craftsman is ready to fire a big one in his second U.S. start, but will have to overcome starting from the rail in order to do so.
Infosec and Puppy Manners, the third- and fourth-place finishers from the California Derby, return for a rematch with Enterprising, and both have the credentials to hit the board at a nice price. Puppy Manners is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and turned in an excellent late run in the California Derby, while Infosec has recorded some solid workouts in preparation for this race, and should have enough early speed to work out a decent trip.
Rounding out the field are I'll Wrap It Up, most recently fourth behind Dance With Fate in that one's allowance victory, and Icy Ride, a Bob Baffert-trainee that has yet to finish better than fourth from four starts. The latter colt appears overmatched on paper, but has been facing some pretty good horses in all of his starts, including Hoppertunity, Cool Samurai, and Indianapolis, so perhaps he could surprise most everyone with a respectable finish on Saturday.
Selections: Enterprising, Tamarando, Dance With Fate, Icy Ride
Other Races of Note
Rather than delve into all three of the upcoming graded stakes races in a single edition of "Triple Crown Countdown," we will be analyzing Sunday's San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) tomorrow and Monday's Southwest Stakes (gr. III) the day after that. But there are a few other Saturday races that merit a mention, including a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita that has drawn three colts from the barn of Bob Baffert.
The race, which is carded as the sixth of the day, includes not only the Baffert trio of Superlooper, The Admiral, and first-time starter Vegas Strip, but also Footstepsinbronze, the morning line favorite off of a solid runner-up effort in his debut for trainer Simon Callaghan. This is definitely a race you'll want to see!
There is also a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream tomorrow, in which Athens is the morning line favorite for trainer Bill Mott. The colt has made one start thus far, finishing sixth to the well-regarded Constitution in another seven-furlong maiden race on January 11th. Others to keep an eye on include Highrate, unraced since a fifth-place finish to Conquest Two Step and Ride On Curlin in a Churchill maiden race last June; Mettlesome, a first-time starter for Bill Mott that has recorded some nice workouts; and Victory Not Defeat, a first-time starter for Ralph Nicks that will be ridden by John Velazquez.
-Keelerman
Rounding out the field are I'll Wrap It Up, most recently fourth behind Dance With Fate in that one's allowance victory, and Icy Ride, a Bob Baffert-trainee that has yet to finish better than fourth from four starts. The latter colt appears overmatched on paper, but has been facing some pretty good horses in all of his starts, including Hoppertunity, Cool Samurai, and Indianapolis, so perhaps he could surprise most everyone with a respectable finish on Saturday.
Selections: Enterprising, Tamarando, Dance With Fate, Icy Ride
Other Races of Note
Rather than delve into all three of the upcoming graded stakes races in a single edition of "Triple Crown Countdown," we will be analyzing Sunday's San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) tomorrow and Monday's Southwest Stakes (gr. III) the day after that. But there are a few other Saturday races that merit a mention, including a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Santa Anita that has drawn three colts from the barn of Bob Baffert.
The race, which is carded as the sixth of the day, includes not only the Baffert trio of Superlooper, The Admiral, and first-time starter Vegas Strip, but also Footstepsinbronze, the morning line favorite off of a solid runner-up effort in his debut for trainer Simon Callaghan. This is definitely a race you'll want to see!
There is also a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream tomorrow, in which Athens is the morning line favorite for trainer Bill Mott. The colt has made one start thus far, finishing sixth to the well-regarded Constitution in another seven-furlong maiden race on January 11th. Others to keep an eye on include Highrate, unraced since a fifth-place finish to Conquest Two Step and Ride On Curlin in a Churchill maiden race last June; Mettlesome, a first-time starter for Bill Mott that has recorded some nice workouts; and Victory Not Defeat, a first-time starter for Ralph Nicks that will be ridden by John Velazquez.
-Keelerman
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