1. Top Billing (Curlin - Parade Queen, by A.P. Indy) - Trained by Shug McGaughey
He has drawn gate twelve in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II), which is far from ideal, given the short run to the first turn. Since his running style is to come from behind, it won't hurt him as much as it would if he were a front-runner or pace stalker, but there's still a very real chance that he could get hung very wide entering the first turn. He wrapped up his serious training for the race with a half-mile breeze in :50 flat on February 17th. Now we found out just what kind of horse he is.
2. Cairo Prince (Pioneerof the Nile - Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin
Recorded his first breeze since the Holy Bull on February 15th, clocking a half-mile in :48.75 seconds at Gulfstream Park. It was a solid first work back, nothing special, but with nearly six weeks remaining until the Florida Derby (gr. I), he's got plenty of time to crank things up.
3. Honor Code (A.P. Indy - Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) Trained by Shug McGaughey
Returned to the work tab on February 12th with a three-furlong breeze in :35.66 at Gulfstream Park, which was a very solid first work for the Remsen winner. Assuming all goes well, the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn on March 15th is the target.
4. Candy Boy (Candy Ride - She's an Eleven, by In Excess) Trained by John Sadler
John Sadler has three top-notch three-year-olds in his barn right now -- Sham Stakes (gr. III) runner-up Kristo and San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) winner Kobe's Back being the others -- and now has the somewhat challenging task of keeping them separated during the leadup to the Derby. With Kristo penciled in for the San Felipe, and Kobe's Back aiming for the Rebel Stakes, Candy Boy is targeting a start in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) on April 5th, thus following the same path to the Derby as I'll Have Another did two years ago.
5. Strong Mandate (Tiznow - Clear Mandate, by Deputy Minister) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas
Prior to the running of the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), I voiced an opinion that if Strong Mandate did not win the race in dominant fashion, I was going to be somewhat disappointed. Well, it turns out that Strong Mandate didn't even win the Southwest, but I'm not disappointed. He was hung very wide on the first turn, and may have even clipped heels a bit early in the turn, which left him in last place for a few moments before he re-rallied into contention. Heading down the backstretch, he made a strong move on the far outside (four or five horses wide) to draw within a length of the lead, but was unable to get any closer to the rail on the far turn, and spent the remainder of the race parked on the far outside. Given the amount of ground he lost, it wasn't surprising to see him run out of steam in the homestretch and start drifting around. Give him credit for losing by just 4 1/4 lengths to a horse that rode the rail all the way around, and for finishing six lengths clear of the rest of the field. And this in his first start since early November, and after missing some training due to inclement weather at Oaklawn!
6. Bayern (Offlee Wild - Alittlebitearly, by Thunder Gulch) Trained by Bob Baffert
I had been waiting for a truly eye-catching three-year-old to emerge from the barn of trainer Bob Baffert, and I think Bayern is that colt. I just loved his fifteen-length allowance victory on Thursday, in which he rattled off :24-second quarters through the final half-mile to win under a hand ride. Granted, there wasn't a lot finishing behind him, but I have the feeling that Bayern is on the verge of becoming California's leading three-year-old.
7. Conquest Titan (Birdstone - Miner's Secret, by Mineshaft) Trained by Mark Casse
Mark Casse has decided to pass on the Fountain of Youth with his star runner, citing a variety of reasons in a recent article on Bloodhorse.com. It's probably the best plan in the long run, but it does put Conquest Titan in a bit of a tough spot for the Florida Derby, because if he runs poorly and fails to finish in the top three, he may not have enough points to start in the Kentucky Derby.
8. Commissioner (A.P. Indy - Flaming Heart, by Touch Gold) Trained by Todd Pletcher
Unlike Top Billing, Commissioner actually drew very well in the Fountain of Youth, landing the rail position in a field of thirteen. Granted, it's not 100% ideal, since Commissioner could possibly run into trouble as the rest of the field dives inward on the first turn -- remember Buddy's Saint in 2010? -- but it's definitely better than drawing gate twelve, and we know Commissioner won't lose any ground in the early stages of the race.
9. Shared Belief (Candy Ride - Common Hope, by Storm Cat) Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer
He still isn't back on the work tab, and time is really running out for making the San Felipe Stakes, so as a result, I've decided to drop him a bit in my rankings. Expect to see him move back up as soon as he gets back on a regular work schedule.
10. Tapiture (Tapit - Free Spin, by Olympio) Trained by Steve Asmussen
I really don't know how to feel about his victory in the Southwest. From many perspectives, it was excellent -- he was very relaxed while racing inside of horses, kicked clear when asked at the top of the stretch, and won decisively in a respectable time that earned a strong Beyer speed figure. But at the same time, he got an absolute dream trip -- tracking a slow pace while saving ground -- while Strong Mandate and Ride On Curlin, who finished second and third, got hung very wide throughout the race and were forced to make strong moves at inopportune times. But you can't knock the fact that Tapiture has now won two graded stakes races in a row, and seems to be getting better with every race.
10. Vicar's in Trouble (Into Mischief - Vibrant, by Vicar) Trained by Michael Maker
I couldn't see not including Tapiture on this list, but I also couldn't see dropping Vicar's in Trouble, so I decided to make them both #10 and consider it a tie. He's drawn very poorly in gate fourteen for the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II), which could compromise his chances, but perhaps his speed will enable him to clear enough horses to avoid getting hung too wide on the first turn. Remember, victory isn't imperative; Palace Malice and Oxbow finished third and fourth in last year's Risen Star, and both came back to win Triple Crown races.
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I really didn't want to drop Ride On Curlin from this week's list, as he encountered a trip just as bad as Strong Mandate and still ran well enough to be third. But I'm beginning to suspect that he may be best at shorter distances, and for that reason, I've reluctantly decided to include others instead.
One horse I really wanted to include was Kobe's Back, who was so visually impressive in winning the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) by 5 1/4 lengths. But he's still unproven around two turns, and he -- like Ride On Curlin -- may be best as a sprinter.
I could also have included Tamarando, winner of the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), but he seems to be a completely different horse on synthetic as opposed to dirt. If the Kentucky Derby were being run on Polytrack, I'd be tempted to put him at the top of the list. But until Tamarando fires a top-notch performance on dirt, it will be hard to include him in my top ten.
With the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) and Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) coming up this Saturday, expect a major shake-up in next week's rankings. Among the horses poised to join my list with sharp performances are Rise Up, Hoppertunity, Intense Holiday, Wildcat Red, We Miss Artie, and Almost Famous. And of course, the match-up between Top Billing and Commissioner could prove fascinating, as a victory by the latter of the former could cause me to serious re-think the overall shape of my rankings!
-Keelerman
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