Triple Crown Countdown 2-7-14

Saturday marks the second stop on California's road to the Kentucky Derby, as seven lightly-raced three-year-olds head to the Santa Anita starting gate for the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II), which will offer a total of 17 Kentucky Derby qualification points to the top four finishers. For some, this race will be just another stop on the road to Churchill Downs. For others, it may be the final stop.

Let's take a look at who's running!

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II)

The morning line favorite is Bob Baffert's Midnight Hawk, who won the Sham Stakes (gr. III) last month here at Santa Anita following a race-long duel with Kristo. It was the most impressive of performances, giving that he ran his final quarter in :25.96 seconds and drifted in through the stretch, but since it was just his second start -- and his first on dirt -- those shortcomings are easily forgivable. From post position three, Midnight Hawk should be able to work out a nice trip either leading early or stalking the pace, depending on how eager Diamond Bachelor is from post position two.

Not only does Bob Baffert train the favorite, he trains the third choice on the morning line as well, that being Chitu, who -- like Midnight Hawk -- is unbeaten in two starts. But unlike Midnight Hawk, both of those races were at six furlongs, meaning that for Chitu to win the Robert B. Lewis, he will have to do so in his first start around two turns. However, it's entirely possible that Chitu will prove capable of doing just that, for in his allowance victory last time out, he tracked the early pace before coming on to win by a half-length in the excellent time of 1:08.86 seconds. A son of Henny Hughes out of the A.P. Indy mare Sea Gift, Chitu will have plenty of options while starting from the far outside post position, and seems to have the versatility to adapt to whatever pace scenario presents itself.

On paper, Midnight Hawk and Chitu look to be the two early leaders, and since they're both trained by Bob Baffert, I can't imagine that they will engage in a destructive duel for the early lead. However, the wild card in this assumption may be Diamond Bachelor, from the barn of Patrick Biancone. The son of War Front made the first three starts of his career on turf, where he flashed extreme speed on a couple of occasions -- as well as a tendency to be a bit rank. He showed neither of those traits when making his dirt debut in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), in which he trailed the field more than halfway through the race before rallying mildly at the finish. It's hard to say what went wrong that day, but he's been training sharply for his return, and could make things difficult for Midnight Hawk and Chitu if he sets his sights on securing the early lead.

With that in mind, Candy Boy -- the second choice on the morning line -- looms as the most likely winner of the race. Trained by John Sadler, Candy Boy began his career with a trio of defeats, then put it all together to break his maiden by 8 1/4 lengths going 1 1/16th miles at Hollywood in November. This impressive performance earned him a start in the CashCall Futurity (gr. I), where Candy Boy unleashed a breathtaking mid-race move under jockey Gary Stevens to take the lead around the far turn. While Candy Boy was unable to sustain the move completely, he did hold on to finish second, 5 3/4 lengths behind Eclipse champion two-year-old Shared Belief. On the basis of that mid-race move alone, Candy Boy deserves respect, and with the possibility of a quick pace in front of him, Candy Boy looks primed for a very, very big effort on Saturday.

Rounding out the field are the recent maiden winners Home Run Kitten, Cool Samurai, and El Nino Terrible. The first-mentioned colt, a son of Kitten's Joy, broke his maiden sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on the downhill turf course at Santa Anita, and while the performance was a sharp one, this race marks not only his stakes debut, but his dirt debut as well. Cool Samurai put in a solid rally on December 27th to break his maiden over a mile at Santa Anita, despite having to close into rather slow fractions of :48.18 and 1:12.06. Like Candy Boy, Cool Samurai would appreciate a solid pace to run at, and with John Shirreffs as his trainer, you know this son of First Samurai is going to improve with time and experience. El Nino Terrible was very game in wiring a 1 1/16th miles maiden special weight at Santa Anita on January 17th, albeit with the benefit of setting a slow pace.

So with all that said, I believe that Candy Boy is going to get the job done from off-the-pace, with Midnight Hawk out-staying his stablemate and Diamond Bachelor to secure the place. I also feel that Cool Samurai has a ton of potential, and may be poised to leap on to the Derby trail with a top-three finish.

Other Races of Note

There aren't too many other interesting races for three-year-olds being run this weekend, but I am kind of excited about the second race at Santa Anita on Saturday, that being a six-furlong maiden special weight that drew a field of six. The morning line favorite is Little Curlin, a son of (who else?) Curlin that finished a strong third in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden race here at Santa Anita last month. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer, Little Curlin should appreciate the extra sixteenth of a mile of Saturday's race, and his pedigree suggests that he could be especially effective around two turns. I look forward to seeing how he progresses during the coming months.

Little Curlin's primary opposition will likely come from Act, a first-time starter from the barn of John Sadler; and the Bob Baffert-trained pair of Pimpernel and Party Time, the latter a first-time starter that has been training exceptionally well.

Also on Saturday, Gulfstream will host a 1 1/16th miles maiden special weight for three-year-olds that has drawn a field of thirteen, including the H. James Bond-trained Legend, who finished fourth to Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) winner Vinceremos in a one-mile maiden race last month. Goodnewsisnonews, runner-up to the promising Baretti in an Aqueduct maiden race in January, is the morning line favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher. Bay of Plenty and Ring Weekend are also expected to receive support in the wagering.

I'm also looking forward to a one-mile allowance optional claiming race at Oaklawn on Sunday, which will feature impressive maiden winner Bitters 'n Bourbon attempting to take another step forward on the road to the Derby. All Call, who broke his maiden sprinting six furlongs at Oaklawn on January 25th, is another logical contender.

-Keelerman