Titletown Five entered in Gazebo Stakes

Titletown Five, a highly-regarded three-year-old colt that won a maiden race at Churchill Downs last October by nine lengths, will make his first start since then on Saturday in the $60,000 Gazebo Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Titletown Five has competed against some very good horses during his brief four-race career, including CashCall Futurity (gr. I) winner Violence and Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) winner Orb. A son of Tiznow out of the Forest Wildcat mare D' Wildcat Speed, Titletown Five suffered an ankle chip shortly after his maiden victory and had to take some time off, but the colt has been training sharply since the beginning of February, and breezed a half-mile in a bullet :48 flat on February 26th.

Lined up to face Titletown Five are six other lightly-raced colts, led by the unbeaten three-time stakes winner Get Happy Mister, Big Drama Stakes winner King Henny, promising allowance winner Malibu High, and Smarty Jones Stakes fourth-place finisher Stormy Holiday.

Post Positions:
1 Get Happy Mister
2 Stormy Holiday
3 Vannistelrooy Star
4 Malibu High
5 King Henny
6 Titletown Five
7 Our Double Play

-Keelerman

Orb edges Violence in thrilling Fountain of Youth

The promising allowance winner Orb became a graded stakes winner on Saturday when he rallied past the previously undefeated Violence to win the $400,000 Besilu Stables Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) at Gulfstream Park by a half-length.

Ridden to victory by John Velazquez, Orb got off to a clean start from post one but quickly settled back in seventh place as Majestic Hussar led the way through quick fractions of :23.11 and :45.45 seconds. Violence, Cerro, and Sr. Quisqueyano were racing as a group in second, followed closely by Elmutahid. Speak Logistics was another four lengths back in sixth, followed by Orb, He's Had Enough, and Joshua's Comprise.

Moving round the final turn, Violence made a strong move to challenge Majestic Hussar for the lead, but the move may have come a bit soon, for it resulted in a six-furlong fraction of 1:08.85 seconds, and truly blazing time. Turning for home, Violence drew clear of Majestic Hussar, but Orb was rallying strongly in the center of racetrack, and stuck his head in front about a sixteenth of a mile from home. Violence dug in gamely and tried to repel the challenge, but Orb maintained his advantage to the wire, which he reached in a quick 1:42.24 seconds for a mile and a sixteenth. The time was only 0.43 seconds off the track record set by Itsmyluckyday earlier this year.

Speak Logistics rallied for third, many lengths behind the top pair. Majestic Hussar, He's Had Enough, Cerro, Sr. Quisqueyano, Joshua's Comprise, and Elmutahid completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Shug McGaughey and owned by Stuart Janney III and Phipps Stable. A son of Malibu Moon out of Lady Liberty, by Unbridled, Orb has now compiled a record of 3-0-1 from 6 starts, with earnings of $321,050.

-Keelerman

Ground Transport romps in Fair Grounds allowance race

Even-money favorite Ground Transport turned in an eye-catching rally to win a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race at Fair Grounds this afternoon by about three lengths.

With jockey Mark Guidry aboard, Ground Transport settled back into third during the early stages of the race, about three lengths four lengths behind the front-running pair of Winning Note and Free World. Carson's Crown was tucked in along the rail in fourth, followed closely by Whiskey Bravo and Hawaakom.

Following fractions of :23.90, :48.76, and 1:13.94, Free World moved up to take over the lead from Winning Note, but he in turn was quickly passed by Grand Transport, who rallied quickly down the center of the racetrack to seize command of the race. He continued to extend his lead with every stride toward the wire, which he reached in the quick time of 1:43.46 seconds.

Free World held second by a large margin over Carson's Crown, while Winning Note, Hawaakom, and Whiskey Bravo completed the order of finish.

The winner is a son of Big Brown out of Extry, by Broad Brush. He is trained by Mark Stidham and owned by Jeffrey Yingling, Martin Nixon, Frank Calabrese, and Marrette Farrell.

-Keelerman

Ruble breaks maiden sharply at Gulfstream Park

Ruble kicked away from his rivals at the top of the Gulfstream Park homestretch to win a six-furlong maiden special weight by 3 1/2 lengths, stopping the clock in a quick 1:09.89 seconds to stamp himself as a highly promising three-year-old to watch.

Ridden to victory by Alan Garcia, Ruble got off to a spectacular start from gate four and quickly took command of the lead while being pressured by No Its Not and Lead Singer through fractions of :22.42 and :45.36. Turning for home, Garcia asked Ruble for more run, and the son of Exchange Rate responded with a burst of speed that carried him to a decisive victory.

Slan Abhaile closed moderately to finish second, 4 1/4 lengths in front of No Its Not. Lead Singer rounded out the superfecta.

Ruble is trained by Ian Wilkes and owned by Janis Whitham, who also race 2012 Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) winner Fort Larned.

-Keelerman

Sunbean spectacular in Gentilly Stakes victory

Odd-on favorite Sunbean lived up to expectations in the $60,000 Gentilly Stakes at Fair Grounds, turning in an explosive rally around the far turn to win the 1 1/16th miles race under a hand ride.

Ridden to victory by Colby Hernandez, Sunbean was content to race back in sixth during the early stages of the race, about seven or eight lengths behind opening fractions of :23.64 and :46.76 seconds. But entering the final three-eighths of a mile, Sunbean began to advance on the outside, roaring past horses with a spectacular turn-of-foot that carried him to the lead by the time the horses entered the homestretch. Sunbean continued to extend his advantage from there, eventually hitting the wire about four lengths in front while stopping the clock in 1:42.76 seconds.

Trained by Al Stall Jr. and owned by Brittlyn Stable, Sunbean has now won three of his four starts, including the Louisiana Futurity last December. He is a son of Brahms out of X Strawdnair, by Malagra.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-23-13

Get ready. The semi-final round has started. From here on out, mistakes cannot be made. The stakes have been increased to five times higher than they were before.

This is the second stage of Road to the Kentucky Derby. All previous Derby prep races mean little to nothing. No longer are the Derby candidates competing for a mere ten points to the winner. They are now competing for fifty points, which should be more than enough to secure them a berth in the Run for the Roses.

Two such fifty-point races are scheduled to be conducted today, and perhaps as a result of their increased value, both events have drawn huge, competitive fields.

A victory in either of these races will assure you a spot in the Derby. A runner-up effort will put you right in contention. A third-place finish will keep you on the trail. A fourth-place finish will garner a few token points. Anything worse may end up keeping you out of the Derby.

The second stage has begun. Let's start handicapping.

Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II)

(Note: At the time of writing, Sky Captain had already been scratched from the Fountain of Youth, but Falling Sky, a later scratch, was still in the race.)

In ways, this race will be the most anticipated of the weekend, having drawn the unbeaten CashCall Futurity (gr. I) stakes winner Violence. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Medaglia d'Oro also has a victory in the Nashua Stakes (gr. II) on his record, stamping him as a colt of exceptional quality. His Futurity win was especially impressive, as he gave a very good impression in the homestretch and finished up strongly despite tracking a fairly strong early pace. Furthermore, he's drawn gate three for today's race, a perfect post draw considering the short run to the first turn. Add in his bullet five-furlong work last week, and you have yourself a very deserving favorite.

However, from a Beyer speed figure perspective, Violence holds no real edge. He earned a 92 for his CashCall victory, a figure that has been matched, nearly matched, or exceeded by four of his rivals. Furthermore, this will be his first start since December, and there's always the possibility that he'll need to get a race under his belt before returning to top form.

If that is the case, there are plenty of other colts to choose from. Personally, I find Speak Logistics very intriguing. Trained by Edward Plesa Jr., who upset Eclipse champion Shanghai Bobby last month with Itsmyluckyday, Speak Logistics showed great talent as a two-year-old, romping to victory in the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes at Calder while earning a Beyer of 90. A run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) yielded less-than-stellar results -- he finished seventh -- but he was only beaten 5 3/4 lengths after tracking a quick pace. His most recent run came in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) at Tampa Bay Downs, where he finished fourth after getting cut off while making what appeared to be a winning move along the rail. He's drawn a bit wide in post eight, but if he can avoid getting hung wide on the first turn, I think Speak Logistics will turn in a good effort.

Cerro and He's Had Enough also deserve considerable respect. The first-mentioned colt won a nine-furlong allowance race in front-running fashion here at Gulfstream last month, giving a generally good impression while earning a respectable speed figure. Trained by Graham Motion and owned by Team Valor International, Cerro seems to be improving in leaps and bounds, and if he can continue his upward trajectory later this afternoon, he may be poised to launch himself into the Derby picture in a big way.

As for He's Had Enough, you've got to give respect to any colt that is beaten a head in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I), but his most recent efforts have caused the son of Tapit to lose some of his luster. A nine-length defeat to Violence in the CashCall Futurity was followed by a nearly seven-length loss to Flashback in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II). Now, He's Had Enough had a legitimate excuse in the Lewis, as the slow pace and small field forced him to try tracking the early pace rather than closing from beyond, which has been his most successful style. Nevertheless, he would need a career-best effort to defeat Violence, and that may be difficult to do while starting from post nine.

As deep as this field is, it comes as somewhat of a surprise that Falling Sky is the only other graded stakes winner, aside from Violence, entered in the race. Winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III) last month, Falling Sky possesses a great deal of tactical speed, which he used to steal the Davis in gate-to-wire fashion. However, he was tiring noticeably at the finish of the Davis, lending to the belief that a mile and a sixteenth may be a bit beyond his best distance. Drawing gate ten will make his task even more difficult.

Orb and Majestic Hussar were both impressive winning allowance races here at Gulfstream last month, with Orb closing from last to win a nine-furlong event and Majestic Hussar sprinting to a clear victory over Palace Malice in a seven-furlong affair. In both cases, however, they have things to prove. Orb, after unleashing a strong fourth-quarter run to take the lead, slowed down drastically in the final furlong of his allowance victory, traversing the distance in :13.36 seconds while allowing runner-up Duke of the City to regain some lost ground. Majestic Hussar will be running beyond seven furlongs for the first time, and must prove that he can be as good on a fast track as he is on off track -- both of his victories have come over sloppy, sealed tracks.

Rounding out the field are Joshua's Comprise, fourth in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III); Elmutahid, a dominating maiden winner in the slop here at Gulfstream last month; and Sr. Quisqueyano, runner-up in the Gulfstream Park Derby and a distant eighth in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III). All have shown flashes of talent, the latter colt especially, but all three would need to show great improvement to upset the favorites.

Selections: Violence, Speak Logistics, Cerro

Risen Star Stakes (gr. II)

(Note: At the time of writing, He's Had Enough, Departing, and Sunbean have been scratched.)

Personally, I am looking forward to this race even more than the Fountain of Youth, for while the Risen Star lacks a big-name star like Violence, the overall depth of the Risen Star makes it a very appealing race with many possible outcomes.

The favorite will almost undoubtedly be Normandy Invasion, who turned in a simply spectacular rally around the far turn of last year's Remsen Stakes (gr. II), making up seven lengths in a mere quarter-mile before eventually finishing second by a nose. The Chad Brown-trainee has been training sharply for his return, and seems to be sitting on another huge race. The lone concern is that the long Fair Grounds homestretch may reveal a potential stamina deficit, as Normandy Invasion's pedigree is not really geared toward route races, but going a mile and a sixteenth, I really don't think it will prove to be an issue.

One of the more interesting horses in the race is Code West, who ships in from California for trainer Bob Baffert. A strongly-bred son of Lemon Drop Kid, Code West enters off of a runner-up effort to Super Ninety Nine in a one-mile allowance race -- and as we all know, Super Ninety Nine returned to demolish the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn last Monday. Furthermore, Code West is bred to relish off-tracks, something which is highly likely at Fair Grounds today. With Martin Garcia flying in to ride the colt, I believe that Code West has an excellent shot at upsetting Normandy Invasion, assuming he gets a decent trip from post two.

Another major contender is Oxbow, who turned in one of the most impressive performances of the Derby prep season when winning the LeComte Stakes (gr. III) here at Fair Grounds by 11 1/2 lengths. In the homestretch -- while all the other runners were weaving and exhausted -- Oxbow was still running straight as an arrow, pouring on speed to win in simply spectacular fashion. Some have pointed to the fact that he set a slow pace in the LeComte, and feel he will lose when forced to set faster fractions. Perhaps that will be the case, further down the road. But with no other true speed horses entered in the Risen Star, who’s to say Oxbow won't get the same slow pace today?

Palace Malice, from the barn of Todd Pletcher, probably has the speed to match strides with Oxbow early -- he tracked a strong pace in a seven-furlong allowance race at Gulfstream last month en route to a runner-up finish -- but he seems to prefer rallying from a few lengths off the lead, which is where I expect him to be today. While this race will mark his first start around two turns, the fact that he is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin suggests that the added distance will not pose a problem. And with Fair Grounds master Rosie Napravnik in the saddle, he should get a good trip as well.

No Derby prep would be complete without a highly promising up-and-coming maiden winner, which is exactly what Proud Strike is. After finishing third and second in his first two starts, Proud Strike came through with a dominating 7 1/2-length triumph last time out, for which he earned a strong Beyer speed figure of 91. Adding to the intrigue is the fact that Gary Stevens, the recently unretired Hall of Fame jockey, has flown in from California to ride him. Winning from the rail won't be the easiest of tasks, but at least we know he'll save some ground around the first turn!

Rounding out the projected main contenders is Mylute, who placed in a trio of stakes last year, including the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (gr. III), in which he made an eye-catching five-wide rally around the far turn before flattening out a bit in the homestretch. He rebounded from that defeat to win a one-mile and seventy-yard allowance race here at Fair Grounds by a massive 10 3/4 lengths, thus stamping him as one of the favorites for this race. However, it's worth noting that Rosie Napravnik -- who rode Mylute in that allowance win -- has chosen to ride Palace Malice instead.

The rest of the entrants would have to step up sharply to contend for the top spot. Golden Soul finished second to Oxbow in the LeComte, but was, of course, beaten over eleven lengths. Agent has won two of his three starts, including a one-mile allowance race at Sam Houston, but lacks the speed figures to really be competitive. Likewise, Ive Struck a Nerve has turned in some nice efforts, including a runner-up finish in the Sugar Bowl Stakes two starts back, but was fourth in the LeComte and has never run a Beyer over 74. Bethel broke his maiden in a claiming race two starts back, then was fourth in a starter allowance race just six days ago. Hardrock Eleven fired a big one when beaten a half-length in the Allen's Landing Stakes last time out, but the distance could be just a bit challenging for him, and like others, his speed figures aren't very high. Circle Unbroken won the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) as a two-year-old, stamping himself as a quality colt, and while he was beaten 16 1/4 lengths when sixth in the LeComte, that was also his first start since August, and his trainer stated beforehand that the colt wasn't fully fit. I expect that Circle Unbroken will show an improved performance today, although whether or not it will be enough to contend for the top prize is open to question.

Selection: Oxbow, Code West, Normandy Invasion

-Keelerman

Super Ninety Nine romps in Southwest Stakes

Even-money favorite Super Ninety Nine lived up to expectations in the $300,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on February 18th at Oaklawn Park, drawing away powerfully to win the 1 1/16th miles race by a staggering 11 1/4 lengths.

Ridden to victory by Rafael Bejarano, Super Ninety Nine flashed speed from the start and quickly took command of the lead, setting fractions of :23.33, :47.49, and 1:12.29 over a sloppy track while being tracked by Heaven's Runway, Big Lute, and Always in a Tiz. Officer Alex and Texas Bling were next in line, followed by Brown Almighty, Channel Isle, Fear the Kitten, and Will Take Charge.

As the field moved around the far turn, Super Ninety Nine began to widen his advantage without any pressure from Bejarano, and by the time he entered the homestretch, Super Ninety Nine was well clear of his closest pursuers. The results of the race were never in doubt after that, with Super Ninety Nine extending his lead in breathtaking fashion to win the race in 1:44.84 seconds.

Fear the Kitten closed well on the outside to finish second, 2 1/4 lengths in front of Heaven's Runway. Channel Isle turned in a mild rally to complete the superfecta, while Always in a Tiz, Will Take Charge, Big Lute, Brown Almighty, Texas Bling, and Officer Alex completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Bob Baffert and owned by Tanma Corporation. A son of Pulpit out of the Unbridled's Song mare Exogenetic, Super Ninety Nine has now compiled a record of 3-1-0 from 5 starts, with earnings of $266,480.

-Keelerman

Risen Star Stakes entries: Oxbow, Normandy Invasion lead huge field of 15

A huge total of fifteen horses, including one also-eligible, have been entered in Saturday's $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds, making the 1 1/16th miles race one of the deepest and most contentious Kentucky Derby prep races of the year thus far.

A small sampling of the entries reveals names like Oxbow, winner of the LeComte Stakes (gr. III); Normandy Invasion, runner-up in the Remsen Stakes (gr. II) last November; Mylute, a hugely impressive allowance winner in January; He's Had Enough, runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I); and Palace Malice, runner-up to Majestic Hussar in a recent seven-furlong allowance race.

Shipping in from California is Bob Baffert's Code West, runner-up to the well-regarded Super Ninety Nine in a recent allowance race. A son of Lemon Drop Kid out of a Saint Ballado mare, Code West should have no trouble with the distance of the Risen Star, and should appreciate the long homestretch.

Gary Stevens, who has won three stakes races since returning to the saddle last month, will ride the promising maiden winner Proud Strike.

Post Positions:
1 Proud Strike
2 Code West
3 Agent
4 Golden Soul
5 Mylute
6 Palace Malice
7 Hardrock Eleven
8 Ive Struck a Nerve
9 Normandy Invasion
10 Oxbow
11 Bethel
12 He's Had Enough
13 Circle Unbroken
14 Departing
Also-eligible:
15 Sunbean

-Keelerman

Fountain of Youth Stakes entries: Violence headlines large field of 11

The unbeaten Violence, winner of the CashCall Futurity (gr. I) and Nashua Stakes (gr. II) last year, will face ten rivals when making his three-year-old debut in the $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II) on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Violence has drawn gate three of eleven, and excellent post position given the short run to the first turn. Javier Castellano has the mount on the son of Medaglia d'Oro, who is owned by Black Rock Thoroughbreds.

Also entered in this very deep race are Falling Sky, winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. III); He's Had Enough, runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and most recently third in the Sham Stakes (gr. III); Cerro and Sky Captain, the 1-2 finishers in a recent nine-furlong allowance race; Majestic Hussar, who beat the highly-regarded Palace Malice in a recent seven-furlong allowance race; Orb, who overcame a troubled start to win a nine-furlong allowance race last month; and Speak Logistics, winner of the Florida Stallion In Reality Stakes last year and most recently fourth to Falling Sky in the Sam F. Davis Stakes despite a troubled trip.

Post Positions:
1 Orb
2 Joshua's Compromise
3 Violence
4 Majestic Hussar
5 Elmutahid
6 Cerro
7 Sky Captain
8 Speak Logistics
9 He's Had Enough
10 Falling Sky
11 Sr. Quisqueyano

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-18-13

Deciphering this afternoon's $300,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) at Oaklawn Park basically comes down to one question: Will Bob Baffert's promising allowance winner Super Ninety Nine romp to another impressive victory?

If you answer "yes" to that question, that's fine. You're handicapping is done. But if you answer "no", then you had better be prepared for a couple more hours of work.

It's pretty much that simple. Bob Baffert has dominated Oaklawn's Derby preps in recent years, sweeping the 2012 Arkansas Derby, the 2012 Rebel Stakes, the 2011 Rebel Stakes, the 2010 Rebel Stakes, and both divisions of the 2012 Southwest Stakes. That's more than a little impressive. So, if you think that he's going to continue his streak, then there's no reason in the world why you wouldn't pick Super Ninety Nine. He's a nice colt, no doubt. He earned a Beyer speed figure of 100 for his allowance win, and he had previously placed second in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) last November. He possesses a great deal of tactical speed, and should be prominent from the start of the Southwest.

On the other hand, it is worth noting that in 2012 -- when Baffert swept all three of the graded Derby preps -- the California-based colts were, in general, better than those from the rest of the country. Remember, California colts swept the Derby 1-2, the Preakness 1-2-3, the Haskell 1-2, and a variety of Derby preps across the nation as well. This year, the opposite appears to be true -- the California colts have been having trouble holding their own against their Eastern-based rivals. After all, Shanghai Bobby and Violence came east to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and CashCall Futurity (gr. I), and just yesterday, the well-regarded California-shipper Title Contender was beaten in an allowance race here at Oaklawn.

But if you think that the California colts aren't up to par this year, and wish to pass on Super Ninety Nine in favor of the locals, you're soon going to find that very little separates the locals in terms of talent. For example, five of the ten colts entered in the Southwest are exiting the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes, where they ran 1-2-3-5-6. The top three finishers -- Will Take Charge, Texas Bling, and Always in a Tiz -- were separated by little more than a neck at the finish. Brown Almighty, who finished fourth, was ten lengths behind them, but came out of the race with a lung infection that surely compromised his performance. And Officer Alex (6th) raced wide throughout and made a nice middle move before retreating in the final quarter mile.

My point? Determining which of these five colts will emerge the best today will not be easy.

The remaining four entrants have equally cloudy form. Big Lute was brilliant winning a six-furlong maiden special weight earlier this month, but how will he fare around two turns? Fear the Kitten turned in a decent rally to be third in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III), but was beaten thirteen lengths by the winner. Channel Isle showed determination to win a one-mile allowance race here at Oaklawn last month, but the third-place finisher was absolutely crushed in an allowance race yesterday afternoon, which doesn't bode well for Channel Isle's chances. Heaven's Runway won a stakes at Presque Isle Downs last year, but has been disappointing in every start beyond 6-1/2 furlongs and isn't really bred to go this far.

So what does it all mean? The way I interpret it, Super Ninety Nine holds a tactical advantage and should be able to steal this race in gate-to-wire fashion. Will Take Charge looks like the best of the Smarty Jones runners, as I was highly impressed by the way he won despite getting hung wide on both turns. And given how well the Midnight Lute’s offspring have been running lately, Big Lute should have every chance at carrying his form around two turns and making his presence felt to the wire.

-Keelerman

Shakin It Up very game in San Vicente victory

Shakin It Up showed a great deal of courage in the $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Park, splitting horses at the eighth pole and rallying clear to win the seven-furlong sprint by one length.

Making his first start since a third-place finish in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. II) last November, Shakin It Up settled back into fifth place during the early stages of the race, about three lengths behind the front-running trio of Belvin, Caballo Del Cielo, and Mudflats. War Academy was directly to Shakin It Up's outside in fourth place, while Treasury Bill was the trailer.

Through fractions of :22.88 and :45.62 Belvin continued to lead the way, but Caballo Del Cielo moved up to claim the advantage entering the homestretch and was in front by a half-length passing the eighth pole. But to his inside, Shakin It Up had found an opening, and the favorite surged through under jockey David Cohen to take command. Treasury Bill closed in late to secure second, but didn't have enough time to reel in the winner, who reached the wire in the excellent time of 1:22.48 seconds.

Caballo Del Cielo held third, three-quarters of a length behind Treasury Bill and a similar margin ahead of War Academy. The latter colt briefly lacked racing room approaching the eighth pole, but failed to mount a serious challenge once clear. Mudflats and Belvin completed the order of finish, with the latter beaten just 2 3/4 lengths.

The winner is trained by Bob Baffert and owned by Mike Pegram and Dennis Cardoza. A son of Midnight Lute out of the Vindication mare Silver Bullet Moon, Shakin It Up has now compiled a record of 2-1-1 from 4 starts, with earnings of $139,600.

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-17-13

As promised, here is part two of this week's Triple Crown Countdown, covering the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita and a couple of other noteworthy races at Santa Anita and Oaklawn.

Let's begin!

San Vicente Stakes (gr. II)

Seven furlongs at Santa Anita Park

Although this race does not offer any Kentucky Derby qualification points, it is nevertheless a starting point for a number of potential Derby candidates, including three -- Belvin, Shakin It Up, and War Academy -- from the barn of Bob Baffert.

Not surprisingly, Baffert's trio are the three morning line favorites, with Shakin It Up leading the way at 5-2. A son of Midnight Lute, the colt has not run since finishing a troubled third in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) at Betfair Hollywood Park last November. Note that he was beaten just a neck by Super Ninety Nine on that occasion; Super Ninety Nine being the favorite for the Southwest Stakes (gr. III) tomorrow afternoon. He's been training nicely for his return, having turned in a couple of sharp five-furlong works this month, and he appears to be the horse to beat.

Belvin flashed potential when second in his November debut to subsequent stakes winner Distinctiv Passion, and came right back one month later to romp in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden here at Santa Anita. Like Shakin It Up, he's been training very well, and will have leading rider Rafael Bejarano in the saddle. The interesting part is that he has shown so much talent sprinting, despite the fact that he is a son of Empire Maker out of a Storm Bird mare. With a pedigree like that, he should have no trouble stretching out further down the road.

War Academy has a similar profile, being by Giant's Causeway out of an A.P. Indy mare. There's little doubt that route races are in his future, but he still showed enough talent to break his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs at Hollywood Park last November. He got sick shortly thereafter and didn't return to the work tab until late December, but he's trained well since then and should be in the mix today. I don't really expect him to win a race like this, as seven furlongs looks to be way short of his best distance, but a decent effort should set him up well for a two-turn graded stakes in the near future.

Moving past the Baffert trio, we find Caballo Del Cielo and Treasury Bill. Both colts are coming off of hugely impressive debut victories garnered through drastically different running styles. Caballo Del Cielo, who is trained by Steve Asmussen, broke his maiden sprinting 5-1/2 furlongs last month in gate-to-wire fashion. He ran the opening quarter mile that day in a blazing :21.86 seconds, which makes it clear that he could wind up the early leader in today's race. We know he's got class -- he was beaten just 3 1/4 lengths as a maiden in the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) last fall -- but he was beaten 4 1/2 lengths by Shakin It Up two starts back, and it's hard to say if he's improved enough to turn the tables.

In contrast, Treasury Bill will be making his first start against winners after rallying from out of the clouds to break his maiden going 6-1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita on January 27th. Like Belvin and War Academy, seven furlongs is undoubtedly too short for him -- he's got a regal pedigree that screams Kentucky Derby -- but don't be surprised to see him finishing strongly late. My lone concern is that his maiden winner came over a wet, sealed track; a track that seemed to be playing in favor of closers. It's possible that his late kick could be somewhat compromised by today's fast track.

Rounding out the field is Mudflats, who looked good breaking his maiden by 3 1/4 lengths two starts back at Aqueduct over a sloppy sealed track. Purchased privately thereafter and transferred to the care of Doug O'Neill, Mudflats disappointing greatly in his only start since, finishing seventh in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II) on January 5th. He's got the speed to be in contention from the start, but it looks as though he'll have to step up a few notches to beat this field.

Selections: Shakin It Up, Belvin, War Academy

Other Races of Note

At Oaklawn Park . . .

Race 7: Bob Baffert's Title Contender, who finished last in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and CashCall Futurity (gr. I) after breaking his maiden sharply in September, has shipped out for this 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race and should win without trouble if at his best. Midas Dancer ran second to Gulfport and Fear the Kitten in a pair of allowance races at Churchill last fall, and has never finished worse than third in six starts. He looms the most likely winner if Title Contender fails to bring his best race. Hornet finished next-to-last in a strong renewal of the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes last December, then returned to finish third behind Southwest Stakes (gr. III) entrant Channel Isle in an allowance race here at Oaklawn. Another good effort today would bode well for Channel Isle's chances tomorrow. Red Wings, from the barn of D. Wayne Lukas, lost his first six starts before claiming a narrow victory last time out. He's got a determined running style, but may not be quite as good as the favorites in this spot.

At Santa Anita . . .

Race 3: This is the first division of a one-mile maiden special weight that drew enough entries to be run as two races. The favorite is Wine List, who has finished second in a pair of one-mile maiden races on the turf. However, the colt I have my eye on is Misdeed, who finished second by nearly eight lengths to the promising Tiz the Truth in a race similar to this one two weeks ago. A victory by Misdeed today would, of course, further stamp Tiz the Truth as a colt of high quality. Aleander, a troubled seventh in his debut for Baffert on December 26th; and Handsome Dennis, third in his debut sprinting three weeks ago, are other prominent contenders.

Race 5: The second division of this maiden race has drawn arguably the stronger field, for it includes names like Footbridge and Syndicated (2nd and 3rd to Curly Top in a recent one-mile MSW), Pure Loyalty (2nd to Treasury Bill in that one's maiden victory), Govenor Charlie (2nd to Let Em Shine in a 6f MSW; finished ahead of subsequent winner Salutos Amigos), Major Affair (4th to the Demonic and Tiz the Truth in a 7f MSW), and Colburn (4th to Tiz the Truth in that one's maiden victory.) Don't be surprised if the winner of this race goes on to contest a major Derby prep race in the near future!

-Keelerman

Mr Palmer impresses in Aqueduct maiden victory

Heavily favored Mr Palmer turned in an impressive performance to break his maiden at Aqueduct on Sunday afternoon, opening up a commanding lead at the top of the stretch and holding off a late run from Incognito to win by a neck.

Ridden to victory by Junior Alvarado, Mr Palmer sat back in fourth during the opening quarter mile, then progressed rapidly in between horses to take command of the lead following a half-mile in :48.29 seconds. He continued to extend his advantage down the backstretch and around the far turn, entering the homestretch in front by four or perhaps five lengths. Incognito put in an excellent late rally to make the finish close, but Mr Palmer was still in command at the finish line, which he reached in 1:43.32 seconds for a mile and seventy yards.

Navy Guard finished third after looming a contender on the far turn, while Inmyfathersimage completed the superfecta. Regular Business and Chambers Bay trailed the field.

The winner is a son of Pulpit out of In Truth, by Quiet American. He is trained by Bill Mott and owned by Michael Lauffer and Gregory McDonald.

-Keelerman

Dice Flavor rallies for El Camino Real Derby victory

9-1 shot Dice Flavor rallied powerfully from off-the-pace to win the $200,000 El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) at Golden Gate Fields in decisive fashion.

With Jose Valdivia Jr. aboard, Dice Flavor settled back into the eighth position early on as the favorite Manando sprinted clear of the field while setting fractions of :23.10, :47.34, and 1:11.67 seconds. Wildcat Moon and Counting Days were racing in second and third, with Carving some eight lengths behind Manando in fourth place. Zeewat, Rush In, Nina's Dragon, Dice Flavor, and North Pacific trailed the field.

Turning for home, the field caught up with Manando, who quickly retreated to a last-place finish. Wildcat Moon and Counting Days were the first to take command, but they were soon passed by Dice Flavor, who overcame a bit of traffic at the top of the stretch and rallied to the front. He drew off powerfully from there, eventually hitting the wire 3 3/4 lengths in front while stopping the clock for nine furlongs in 1:51.45 seconds.

Nina's Dragon finished up well to edge Counting Days for second, while Carving rounded out the superfecta. Zeewat, Wildcat Moon, North Pacific, Rush In, and Manando completed the order of finish.

The winner is trained by Patrick Gallagher and owned by Oda Racing Stable and US Equine. A son of Scat Daddy out of the Afleet mare Afleet Summer, Dice Flavor has now compiled a record of 2-0-2 from 5 starts, with earnings of $160,500.

-Keelerman

Capo Bastone wins return at Gulfstream Park

He had to work hard for it, but Capo Bastone made his 2013 debut a winning one when he wore down Offlee Fast to win a 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park by a head.

The son of Street Boss was making his first start since finishing third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) last November at Santa Anita Park. Sent off as the 3-2 favorite under jockey John Velazquez, Capo Bastone got hung wide entering the first turn, and soon found himself racing on the outside in fifth place as Offlee Fast led the way through quick fractions of :22.60 and :46.66 seconds. Duke of the City, Edge of Reality, and Sky Commander were his closest pursuers, while Irsaal, Taken by the Storm, and Finn's Quest trailed the field.

Following three-quarters of a mile in 1:12.84, Capo Bastone advanced strongly on the outside to challenge Offlee Fast for the lead, but the leader was not yet will to relinquish his advance, and dug in gamely turning for home. The two colts then staged a thrilling battle to the wire, with Capo Bastone edging his game rival by a head.

The final time over the sloppy track was 1:48.16. Finn's Quest rallied well to finish third, beaten about three lengths, while Duke of the City, Irsaal, Taken by the Storm, Edge of Reality, and Sky Commander completed the order of finish.

The winner is owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and is trained by Todd Pletcher. He has now compiled a record of 2-0-2 from 5 starts, with earnings of $314,100.

-Keelerman

Southwest Stakes entries: Super Ninety Nine invades from California

Super Ninety Nine, who was highly impressive winning an allowance race last month for trainer Bob Baffert, will ship in from California to contest the $300,000 Southwest Stakes (gr. III) on Monday at Oaklawn Park.

The 1 1/16th miles race has drawn nine other horses, including Will Take Charge, Texas Bling, and Always in a Tiz, the 1-2-3 finishers in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes here at Oaklawn last month. Impressive maiden winner Big Lute and LeComte Stakes (gr. III) third-place finisher Fear the Kitten are other prominent contenders.

Stakes winners Brown Almighty and Officer Alex will be looking to rebound from fifth- and sixth-place efforts in the Smarty Jones. Fitz Dixon Memorial Juvenile Stakes winner Heaven's Runway and recent allowance winner Channel Isle round out the field.

Post Positions
1 Officer Alex
2 Brown Almighty
3 Will Take Charge
4 Texas Bling
5 Always in a Tiz
6 Super Ninety Nine
7 Fear the Kitten
8 Heaven's Runway
9 Channel Isle
10 Big Lute

-Keelerman

Triple Crown Countdown 2-16-13

Although there are three Kentucky Derby prep races scheduled for this weekend -- officially only two, since the San Vicente isn't worth any points -- this weekend is actually just an appetizer for what is to come. Next week, the second stage of the Kentucky Derby prep schedule begins, with the value of each prep race jumping from 10 points to the winner to a massive 50 points to the winner.

This week's Triple Crown Countdown shall be split into three separate posts, each one covering one of the three weekend prep races. The first one, which you are currently reading, will cover the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III). The second, which shall be posted tomorrow, will cover the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II). The last, scheduled for Monday, will discuss the Southwest Stakes (gr. III).

So without further ado, let's get started!

El Camino Real Derby (gr. III)

Nine furlongs at Golden Gate Fields

To me, this race looks like a two-horse battle between Manando and Zeewat, who are -- not surprisingly -- the two favorites. The first-mentioned colt is one of two Bob Baffert-trainees entered in the race, and is coming off of a sharp third-place finish to Goldencents and Den's Legacy in the Sham Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita. What was encouraging about his performance that day was that he set a very honest pace -- 1:10.06 for three-quarters of a mile -- and fought on tenaciously in the homestretch when challenged by Goldencents. Now, there are plenty of other speedy horses in this race, so the possibility exists that Manando could get caught up in a destructive pace duel. But on the other hand, it's also possible that Manando is simply the best horse in the race.

Zeewat has won three stakes races and is a perfect 2-for-2 since adding blinkers, but lacks the same flashy Beyer speed figures of Manando. However, what he does have is experience at Golden Gate Fields, and a proven ability to overcome traffic issues. Last time out, he was forced to check sharply at the start of the California Derby, but quickly settled into fourth position and rallied well in the stretch to win by a half-length. And don't forget that he is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and will be ridden by Russell Baze, the two kings of Northern California racing.

If anyone can upset the top two choices, it's probably Baffert's other runner, Carving. The colt broke his maiden first time out for a claiming price at Del Mar, then stepped up to win the C. B. Afflerbaugh at Fairplex Park over next-out stakes winner Monument. That effort was followed by a distant fourth in the FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I), a victory in the Real Quiet Stakes, and a poor sixth in the CashCal Futurity (gr. I). Stepping down into grade III company today, Carving should have every chance at regaining his best form, and has the speed to be a presence from the start. I expect to see him settle just off of the early lead, perhaps in second or third, before attacking in the homestretch.

The remainder of the field would have to showcase major improvement to win. Wildcat Moon was beaten just a half-length by Zeewat in the California Derby, but that was after he ducked in sharply at the start and caused Zeewat to check. He's got decent speed, but stretching out to nine furlongs against this company will be a very difficult task. Rush In and Nina's Dragon finished just a half-length apart when second and third to the talented Greeley Awesome in a recent allowance race, and while both have flashed talent, Rush In was soundly beaten by Zeewat three starts back, and neither have run a Beyer speed figure over 77. Dice Flavor broke his maiden nicely at Betfair Hollywood Park two starts back, and was beaten just three-quarters of a length in an allowance optional claiming race at Santa Anita last time out, but is trying synthetic for the first time, and has yet to earn a Beyer over 74. Nevertheless, his sire is Scat Daddy, whose son Daddy Nose Best won this race last year, and he's shown a nice turn-of-foot on the turf, so Dice Flavor could potentially be a very overlooked contender in this race. North Pacific began his career at Hastings Park, and comes into this race off a nice victory going six furlongs here at Golden Gate, but he's facing winners for the first time and seems better sprinting. Rounding out the field is Counting Days, who won a maiden claiming race at Keeneland last fall by 10 1/4 lengths before finishing seventh in the Generous Stakes and fifth in a six-furlong allowance sprint. The distance and surface seem right, but he'll need a major step forward to defeat this field.

Selections: Manando, Zeewat, Dice Flavor

Other Races of Note

At Gulfstream Park . . .

Race 4: Eight horses were originally entered in this nine-furlong maiden special weight, but the scratch of Quiros will leave seven in the starting gate. Todd Pletcher's Abraham is the morning line favorite off of a nose defeat in his debut sprinting. Being by Distorted Humor out of an El Prado mare, Abraham shouldn't have any trouble with the added distance. Successful Brother has finished second in two consecutive maiden special weights at Calder and Gulfstream, but failed to rally despite a favorable pace scenario on both occasions. Nick Zito's The Candidate turned in a nice rally from well off behind to finish fourth in a one-mile maiden race here at Gulfstream, and should appreciate the added distance. If Abraham gets leg-weary in his first start around two turns, expect The Candidate to be absolutely flying late.

Race 5: This nine-furlong maiden special weight was originally scheduled to be run on the turf, but the race was moved to the main track following heavy rains at Gulfstream, the result being eight scratches. That leaves a field of six to contest the race, led by Todd Pletcher's Unitarian. The colt has been soundly beaten in all three of his starts thus far, but with Pulpit and Dynaformer in his immediate pedigree, he should at least enjoy the distance of today's race -- although it didn't help him last month when he finished fourth in a similar race here at Gulfstream. Personally, I am intrigued by Pontiff, a Dale Romans-trained half-brother to Pulpit. Although he showed nothing when ninth in his debut last month, he has trained well enough since then, and I'm hopeful that he'll show improvement today. Conservationalist, also trained by Romans, could also improve off of a deceptively good sixth in a maiden special weight on the turf.

Race 9: To me, this 1 1/16th miles allowance optional claiming race is one of the highlights of the weekend, for this race marks the return of Capo Bastone. The son of Street Boss ran third in both the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) and FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) last year, despite trying to rally over speed-favoring tracks on both occasions. Subsequently transferred to the barn of Todd Pletcher, Capo Bastone looks like a deserving favorite in this spot, but if he needs to get a race under his belt before returning to top form, there are plenty of other horses here that could pull off the upset. The most obvious are Sky Commander, runner-up to Dynamic Sky in the Pasco Stakes last month; Duke of the City, who finished second to Orb in a recent nine-furlong maiden special weight; and Edge of Reality, who absolutely romped in his debut at Parx Racing for trainer Anthony Dutrow. Given that Anthony Dutrow's horses rarely win first-time out, one has to think that Edge of Reality could be sitting on a very big performance today.

At Santa Anita Park . . .

Race 7: The two favorites in this seven-furlong maiden special weight are Del Mar Sunset and Okaad, a pair of Bob Baffert-trained colts with a lot of potential. Del Mar Sunset has run once before, finishing third by a half-length behind the highly-regarded pair Demonic and Tiz the Truth in a race identical to this one. Okaad has also run just once, finishing fourth behind romping winner Treasury Bill in a 6-1/2 furlong maiden special weight on January 27th. There are plenty of other promising horses in this race, including the first-time starter Mistaken Identity, but it's hard to envision Baffert losing this race.

-Keelerman

Titletown Five records bullet work

Promising maiden winner Titletown Five continues to train well for his 2013 debut, breezing five furlongs in a bullet 1:01.40 seconds this morning at Oaklawn Park.

Trained by D. Wayne Lukas, Titletown Five broke his maiden last October at Churchill Downs, defeating next-out winner Bradester by nine lengths and Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) contender Proud Strike by nineeteen. He suffered an ankle chip shortly thereafter and missed two months of training, but returned to the work tab earlier this month and has been working steadily since then.

Titletown Five is owned by William Davis, Paul Hornung, and Ed Martin. He is expected to return to the races in March, with the $600,000 Rebel Stakes (gr. II) being a possibility.

-Keelerman

Could Gary Stevens win the Kentucky Derby?

When jockey Gary Stevens announced his return to riding following seven years of retirement, I doubt anyone really knew what to expect. There's no denying that Stevens is among the best jockeys that horse racing has ever seen. Before his retirement, he had won three Kentucky Derbies, a pair of Preaknesses, and a trio of Belmonts. His record in the Breeders' Cup was equally stellar, with eight victories, fifteen seconds, and eleven thirds. All told, he had won 4,888 races, and over $221 million in purse money.

But seven years is a long time, and I'm sure many people questioned whether Stevens could successfully return to race riding after such a lengthy absence. Well, he's been at it a month now, and he's already won the $151,750 San Marcos Stakes (gr. II) aboard Slim Shadey and the $86,500 Wishing Well Stakes aboard Purim's Dancer. And while his win total stands at just four victories, his mounts have are finishing in the top three at a 50% clip, which compares favorably with jockeys like Joseph Talamo (46%), Garrett Gomez (46%), Irad Ortiz Jr. (47%), Rafael Bejarano (51%), John Velazquez (52%), and Javier Castellano (53%).

But perhaps the most astonishing thing about Stevens' comeback is that he may have a shot at winning a fourth Kentucky Derby, something only three jockeys before him have ever accomplished. More astonishing yet is that he may have two shots.

On February 2nd, Stevens guided a colt named Tiz the Truth to a 7 3/4-length victory in a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita, for which Tiz the Truth earned a Beyer speed figure of 94. Not only was that figure higher than the one earned by Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) winner Flashback three races later, it was also one of the highest earned by any three-year-old colt in California this year. And wouldn't you know it, Tiz the Truth is trained by Bob Baffert, for whom Stevens won the 1997 Kentucky Derby aboard Silver Charm.

But wait -- what is this news I'm hearing from New Orleans, Louisiana? Stevens is going to come for a visit next Saturday? To ride the highly promising Proud Strike in the Risen Star Stakes? Impossible! Brian Hernandez Jr. rides Proud Strike!

What's this? Hernandez is going to ride Departing instead? I see. So Gary gets the mount on this beautifully-bred son of Smart Strike, that broke his maiden by 7 1/2 lengths last time out? Sounds like a real Derby contender to me . . .

What -- there's more? Now you're pulling my leg! He is also going to ride Sharp Cat Stakes winner Midnight Ballet in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes? Inconceivable! Midnight Ballet is a legitimate Kentucky Oaks contender, and it's too much to ask me to believe that just one month into his comeback, Gary has already found himself two potential Derby mounts and a Kentucky Oaks filly to boot . . .

You had better believe it. While there are still plenty of details to be finalized, and plenty of races left to be run, it is entirely possible that Gary Stevens will find himself on television screens across the country come the first Saturday in May -- sitting on a Derby runner, rather than behind the NBC desk with Tom Hammond.

-Keelerman

Power Broker returns to work tab

FrontRunner Stakes (gr. I) winner Power Broker, unraced since finishing fifth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I) on November 4th, turned in his first workout in several months this morning when he breezed three furlongs at Santa Anita Park.

Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Pulpit clocked the distance in :37 flat, the seventh-fastest of fifteen works at that distance. Owned by Gary and Mary West, Power Broker was taken out of training in late November in order to let him fill out a bit, according to a DRF.com article from the time: http://www.drf.com/news/hollywood-park-notes-power-broker-need-few-more-pounds-sit-out-until-2013

Power Broker is expected to return to the races sometime in March, although the exact race has not yet been determined.

-Keelerman

Uncaptured breezes three furlongs

Uncaptured, who won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) last November to complete a 6-for-7 campaign, breezed for the first time since the Kentucky Jockey Club on Wednesday morning.

The son of Lion Heart clocked the distance in :35.60 at the Ocala Training Center, the fastest of the seven morning workouts at that distance. Trained by Mark Casse, Uncaptured is targeting a return to the races on March 23rd at Turfway Park, in either the Spiral Stakes (gr. III) or the Rushaway Stakes.

-Keelerman

San Vicente Stakes: Bob Baffert enters three

Trainer Bob Baffert will have an excellent chance at winning Sunday's  $150,000 San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita, as he trains three of the six entrants.

His runners are Belvin, Shakin It Up, and War Academy. All three showed promise as two-year-olds, with Belvin breaking his maiden second time out; Shakin It Up finishing a close third in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III); and War Academy romping to victory in the lone start of his career. All three have been training sharply for their returns, and it wouldn't be out of the question for them to sweep the trifecta.

Their main opposition is expected to come from Cabello Del Cielo, who was brilliant in breaking his maiden here at Santa Anita last month; and Treasury Bill, who turned in an eye-catching rally to break his maiden on January 27th. Mudflats, who broke his maiden sharply two starts back before finishing seventh in the Jerome Stakes (gr. II), completes the lineup.

Post Positions:
1 Belvin
2 Shakin It Up
3 War Academy
4 Cabello Del Cielo
5 Mudflats
6 Treasury Bill

-Keelerman

Soft Falling Rain dominates in UAE 2,000 Guineas

Heavily favored Soft Falling Rain brought his unbeaten record to a perfect 6-for-6 when dominated seven rivals in the $250,000 UAE 2,000 Guineas Sponsored by Al Tayer Motors (UAE-III) at Meydan Racecourse.

Ridden to victory by Paul Hanagan, the South African-bred son of National Assembly got off to a good start at the beginning of the 1,600-meter (about one-mile) race, and soon settled into the second position behind pace-setting Deauville Prince. Pure Excellence, Filfil, and Zahee were all less than 2 1/2 lengths from the front following the opening four hundred meters, while Snowboarder, Fortify, and Glass Office were the trailers.

The positions remained relatively unchanged down the backstretch and around the far turn, the main exception being that Pure Excellence steadily retreated to last place during that time frame. But entering the homestretch, Hanagan asked Soft Falling Rain to run, and the favorite responded with a burst of speed that carried him to a commanding 2 1/4-length victory in the good time of 1:36.70 seconds.

Snowboarder rallied fast in the final hundred meters to edge Zahee for second, while Deauville Prince held on for fourth. Fortify failed to present a serious challenge and finished sixth.

The winner is trained by Mike de Kock and owned by Sheikh Hamdan bin Rashid al Maktoum, and carried 131 pounds -- ten more than the majority of his rivals. Having been bred in the Southern Hemisphere, Soft Falling Rain is four-years-old by Northern Hemisphere standards, his birth date being September 16th, 2009.

-Keelerman

Keelerman's Derby Top Twenty 2-13-13

1. Tiz the Truth (Tiznow - Truly Blessed, by French Deputy) Trained by Bob Baffert

The dam side of Tiz the Truth's pedigree is rather interesting to examine. His broodmare sire is French Deputy, winner of the 1995 Jerome Stakes (gr. II) and a highly successful sire in Japan, his top progeny including 2001 Japan Cup Dirt (Jpn-I) winner Kurofune and 2002 Whitney Invitational (gr. I) winner Left Bank. As for his tail-female family, you can argue that it is a bit weak -- going back three generations, it has produced just one black-type winner, that being Tiz the Truth's half-brother Notional. On the other hand, his third dam is Lady Tramp, winner of the 1967 Alcibiades Stakes and a full-sister to the multiple stakes winner Popular Demand.

2. Titletown Five (Tiznow - D' Wildcat Speed, by Forest Wildcat) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Surprise! I'll bet you didn't expect to see him up this high! There are a couple of reasons for his sudden rise in my rankings. First off, I was very encouraged by his sharp workout on February 9th, which signals that he should be ready to make his long-anticipated three-year-old debut sometime in mid-March. Secondly, please note that one of the few horses to have beaten Titletown Five -- Park City -- recently returned from a long layoff to win an allowance race at Gulfstream Park.

3. Normandy Invasion (Tapit - Boston Lady, by Boston Harbor) Trained by Chad Brown

Turned in a bullet workout on February 10th, breezing five-eighths in company with Brown's promising maiden winner Integrity and getting the distance in 1:01.44. From a pedigree perspective, ten furlongs may be a bit far for him, but I still can't get over how impressive his far-turn rally was in the Remsen Stakes last fall. If he can replicate that this year, he should be a contender in Louisville.

4. Itsmyluckyday (Lawyer Ron - Viva La Slew, by Doneraile Court) Trained by Edward Plesa, Jr.

There has been some talk that Itsmyluckyday's pedigree may not carry him a mile and a quarter. Perhaps it isn't the strongest classic pedigree I've ever seen, but the impression that Itsmyluckyday gave me in both the Gulfstream Park Derby and the Holy Bull leaves me with little doubt that he can be successful at ten furlongs. His great tactical speed, coupled with a powerful finishing kick, should make him a force in all the major races to come.

5. Verrazano (More Than Ready - Enchanted Rock, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Todd Pletcher

His next start is scheduled to come in the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) on March 9th. I find it interesting to note that Todd Pletcher's lone Derby winner, Super Saver, also used the Tampa Bay Derby as a springboard to Louisville.

6. Shanghai Bobby (Harlan's Holiday - Steelin', by Orientate) Trained by Todd Pletcher

With the plans being not to race him until the Florida Derby (gr. I) at the end of March, it's not surprising that he hasn't turned in a timed workout since the Holy Bull. The two-month gap between prep races is a bit unorthodox, but then again, it's the same pattern that worked for I'll Have Another last year.

7. Revolutionary (War Pass - Runup the Colors, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Todd Pletcher

He has been shipped from New York to Florida to continue his training, which means that he is now considered to be one of Pletcher's first-string runners. A number of options are being contemplated for his next start, including the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Wood Memorial, but nothing definite has been decided.

8. Flashback (Tapit - Rhumb Line, by Mr. Greely) Trained by Bob Baffert

He's already back on the work tab, having breezed a half-mile in :47.80 on February 12th at Santa Anita. In the San Felipe, I would like to see him really get pressured by Goldencents through a fairly quick pace. And so long as that happens, I don't care if he wins or loses the race -- so long as he is right there at the finish. Kind of like Bodemeister in the 2012 San Felipe Stakes.

9. Violence (Medaglia d'Oro - Violent Beauty, by Gone West) Trained by Todd Pletcher

On February 10th, he turned in his penultimate work for the Fountain of Youth, traversing five furlongs in 1:01.01 in company with Palace Malice. It was definitely a major step in the right direction, and a considerably sharper move than his work from one week earlier, so it appears that Violence is going to be ready to roll on February 23rd.

10. Capo Bastone (Stree Boss - Fight to Love, by Fit to Fight) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Still no word on where this colt will race next. Pletcher already has horses pointing toward the Risen Star, Fountain of Youth, Gotham, Tampa Bay Derby, and Rebel Stakes -- which is pretty much every Derby prep race there is between now and the Spiral Stakes. So with that in mind, it seems likely that Capo Bastone is going to have to run against one on his stablemates -- perhaps in the Fountain of Youth (gr. II) against Violence.

11. War Academy (Giant's Causeway - Cabbage Key, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Bob Baffert

Turned in another really nice workout on February 12th, traversing a half-mile in :47.80 at Santa Anita. It has been confirmed that his next start will come in the San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) on Sunday, so we'll soon be able to get a better feel for what kind of a colt he is.

12. Overanalyze (Dixie Union - Unacloud, by Unaccounted For) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Went five furlongs in a nice 1:01.93 at Palm Meadows on February 10th, another nice step toward a start in the Gotham. Personally, I'm looking forward to seeing which Overanalyze shows up in the Gotham -- will we see the one that ground his way to victory in the Remsen, or the one that showcased an eye-catching turn-of-foot to win the Futurity?

13. Oxbow (Awesome Again - Tizamazing, by Cee's Tizzy) Trained by D. Wayne Lukas

Cruised five furlongs in a moderate 1:02.60 this morning, but don't let the slow time fool you -- the track seemed a bit heavy this morning, and his work was actually the second-fastest of the morning at that distance, missing the bullet by just a fifth of a second.

14. Code West (Lemon Drop Kid - Charitabledonation, by Saint Ballado) Trained by Bob Baffert

Breezed a half-mile in :48.00 at Santa Anita on February 12th, after which it was announced that he will make his next start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) at Fair Grounds. The more I think about this colt the more I start to like him, which explains why he is ranked 14th this week after sitting 21st last week.

15. Dynamic Sky (Sky Mesa - Murani, by Distorted Humor) Trained by Mark Casse

His career thus far has been eerily similar to that of his stablemate Prospective. Both Dynamic Sky and Prospective began their careers at Woodbine; both finished off-the-board in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Both began their three-year-old season with a victory in the Pasco; both then ran second in the Sam. F Davis Stakes. Hopefully, Dynamic Sky's Derby dreams will end better than Prospective's, for the latter colt clipped heels at the start of the Derby and wound up eighteenth.

16. Palace Malice (Curlin - Palace Rumor, by Royal Anthem) Trained by Todd Pletcher

Breezed five furlongs in 1:01.01 on February 10th in preparation for a start in the Risen Star Stakes, where he will be ridden for the first time by Rosie Napravnik. As it will be his two-turn debut, I'd just like to see him finish up strongly to secure a spot in the superfecta.

17. Transparent (Bernardini - Habiboo, by Unbridled's Song) Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin

No word yet on where this colt will run next, but he hasn't breezed since his maiden victory on January 26th, so it's probably safe to assume that he won't seem him again until March.

18. Cerro (Mr. Greeley - Ballette, by Giant's Causeway) Trained by Graham Motion

Although his biggest success has come on dirt, Cerro actually has a strong turf pedigree, being a full brother to the stakes-placed two-time turf winner Sacham Spirit. And don't forget that his sire, Mr. Greeley, has produced a number of successful turf runners, including Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (gr. I) winner Aruna. So it should come as no surprise if Cerro takes to the turf strongly in the Palm Beach Stakes (gr. III) next month.

19. Goldencents (Into Mischief - Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) Trained by Doug O'Neill

Turned in yet another bullet workout this morning, cruising six furlongs in 1:13.40 at Santa Anita. O'Neill seems to be training him the same way he trained I'll Have Another last year, with numerous long, quick breezes. Will it result in another Derby success? Time will tell.

20. Proud Strike (Smart Strike - Colonella, by Pleasant Colony) Trained by Steve Asmussen

His next start is scheduled to come in the Risen Star Stakes, where he will face a very deep and very talented field of runners. But here's the interesting part -- jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. rode Proud Strike to his maiden victory, but has chosen to ride recent Fair Grounds allowance winner Departing in the Risen Star. As a result, Proud Strike will be ridden by a new jockey in the Risen Star. That new jockey -- wouldn't you know it! -- is Gary Stevens.

21. Fortify (Distorted Humor - Kotuku, by A.P. Indy) Trained by Mahmoud Al Zarooni.

He's drawn gate four in the UAE 2,000 Guineas (UAE-III), where he will face -- among others -- the unbeaten group I winner Soft Falling Rain and group III winner Glass Office. Please note that Fortify is no longer trained by Kiaran McLaughlin -- he is now trained by Mamoud Al Zarooni.

*****

With a number of major Derby preps coming up over the next several days, we can expect a number of major changes to my next top twenty. Regardless of what happens, you can probably expect to see Dewey Square and Uncaptured back on the list, as both have turned in recent workouts and seem to be back on the right track.

-Keelerman