Blind Luck rallied furiously in the stretch to win the historica $250,000 Vanity Handicap (gr. I) by a half-length at Hollywood Park this afternoon.
Under Garrett Gomez, Blind Luck sat reserved off of a very slow early pace set by American Story. She's Cheeky raced in second, followed by Miss Match in third. The three favorites, Switch, St. Trinians, and Blind Luck, trailed the field.
Turning for home She's Cheeky stuck her head in front of American Story and kicked for home. But Miss Match was moving up strongly into contention and briefly appeared to be on her way to victory, for the three favorites still trailed the field. But suddenly, Blind Luck and Switch turned on the afterburners and simply flew home through the final eighth of a mile to run 1-2 in very impressive performances.
Miss Match held off St. Trinians for third, while She's Cheeky and American Story trailed the field. The final time was 1:50.89.
-Keelerman
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Update on the Unrivaled Belle Steward Scratch from the Ogden Phiips
The reason as to why Unrivaled Belle was scratched by the stewards from the Ogden Phipps Handicap has been announced. Here's the article with the information:
http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-park-awesome-maria-gets-first-grade-1-win-phipps-handicap
-Keelerman
http://www.drf.com/news/belmont-park-awesome-maria-gets-first-grade-1-win-phipps-handicap
-Keelerman
POOL PLAY WINS THE STEPHEN FOSTER!
Prior to the running of this year's $500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I), it was billed as the race that would help sort out the older males division; help give us a favorite for the Breeders' Cup Classic.
However, when Pool Play rallied from last to score a stunning 35-1 upset in the Stephen Foster, it only muddled the division further.
Jockey Miguel Mena guided Pool Play to the back of the field in the early going and Regal Ransom and Mission Impazible set a moderate pace of :23.96 and :48.74 over a main track labeled good. Crown of Thorns, Duke of Mischief, and Worldly weren't far behind. Giant Oak, the mild favorite at 9-2, was next-to-last.
Mission Impazible took over the lead from Regal Ransom entering the homestretch and appeared to have every chance at victory. Flat Out was rallying up along the inside, but not strongly enough. Duke of Mischief was on the outside but tiring a bit. Suddenly, Pool Play and Apart appeared on the scene. Both were flying in the stretch, but Apart was squeezed a bit in the stretch by Pool Play and Duke of Mischief and had to check his run. In the meantime, Pool Play continued on furiously to deny Mission Impazible the victory.
Apart finished third, followed by Duke of Mischief. Flat Out just held off Giant Oak for fifth. The final time was 1:50.52.
-Keelerman
However, when Pool Play rallied from last to score a stunning 35-1 upset in the Stephen Foster, it only muddled the division further.
Jockey Miguel Mena guided Pool Play to the back of the field in the early going and Regal Ransom and Mission Impazible set a moderate pace of :23.96 and :48.74 over a main track labeled good. Crown of Thorns, Duke of Mischief, and Worldly weren't far behind. Giant Oak, the mild favorite at 9-2, was next-to-last.
Mission Impazible took over the lead from Regal Ransom entering the homestretch and appeared to have every chance at victory. Flat Out was rallying up along the inside, but not strongly enough. Duke of Mischief was on the outside but tiring a bit. Suddenly, Pool Play and Apart appeared on the scene. Both were flying in the stretch, but Apart was squeezed a bit in the stretch by Pool Play and Duke of Mischief and had to check his run. In the meantime, Pool Play continued on furiously to deny Mission Impazible the victory.
Apart finished third, followed by Duke of Mischief. Flat Out just held off Giant Oak for fifth. The final time was 1:50.52.
-Keelerman
BIZZY CAROLINE WINS THE REGRET!
Bizzy Caroline drew away impressively in the homestretch to defeat a classy field in the $125,000 Regret Stakes (gr. III) this afternoon at Churchill Downs.
Under M. Cruz, the filly was sent off at 4-1. She sat off of the early pace set by Bouquet Booth and Excited before drawing alongside on the far turn. She then pulled away to a commanding lead, which she maintained to the wire. Excited came home a close second over Bouquet Booth and Kathmanblu. The final time for the nine furlong turf event was 1:49.73.
-Keelerman
Under M. Cruz, the filly was sent off at 4-1. She sat off of the early pace set by Bouquet Booth and Excited before drawing alongside on the far turn. She then pulled away to a commanding lead, which she maintained to the wire. Excited came home a close second over Bouquet Booth and Kathmanblu. The final time for the nine furlong turf event was 1:49.73.
-Keelerman
PANTS ON FIRE WINS THE PEGASUS!
Louisiana Derby winner Pants On Fire, coming off of a ninth-place finish in the Kentucky Derby, held of Concealed Identity in the stretch of the Pegasus Stakes (gr. III) at Monmouth Park to win the event by two lengths.
Under Rosie Napravnik, the colt stumbled a little bit at the start but quickly moved up to track the early pace set by Turbo Compressor and Harlan's Hello. The opening fractions were :23 3/5 and :47 1/5. Concealed Identity was back in fourth, and far behind was Clarke Lane.
Approaching the far turn, Pants On Fire and Concealed Identity began to move up together on the outside and inside, respectively. However, Concealed Identity got into a tight spot and was forced to check, losing several lengths. In the meantime, Pants On Fire cruised past the leaders and took the lead. Concealed Identity came on well to finish second, followed by Turbo Compressor and Harlan's Hello. Clarke Lane lost touch with the field on the far turn and finished dead last.
-Keelerman
Under Rosie Napravnik, the colt stumbled a little bit at the start but quickly moved up to track the early pace set by Turbo Compressor and Harlan's Hello. The opening fractions were :23 3/5 and :47 1/5. Concealed Identity was back in fourth, and far behind was Clarke Lane.
Approaching the far turn, Pants On Fire and Concealed Identity began to move up together on the outside and inside, respectively. However, Concealed Identity got into a tight spot and was forced to check, losing several lengths. In the meantime, Pants On Fire cruised past the leaders and took the lead. Concealed Identity came on well to finish second, followed by Turbo Compressor and Harlan's Hello. Clarke Lane lost touch with the field on the far turn and finished dead last.
-Keelerman
SCOTUS WINS THE MATT WINN!
Sent off as one of the longshots at 8-1, Scotus proved himself to be a quality stakes horse when he mowed down Joe Vann in the stretch of the Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs to win by about a length and a half.
Under Alan Garcia, the colt sat well off of the early pace set by the two favorites, Wilburn and Joe Vann. Those two opened up a large lead early on over the rest of the few while racing out in the middle of the track. Turning into the homestretch, the two colts appeared to be on their way to a 1-2 finish. However, Alan Garcia had Scotus in gear on the far outside and the colt responded gamely to draw clear in the final eighth of a mile.
Infrattini closed well to finish second, with Joe Vann and Wilburn completing the superfecta.
-Keelerman
Under Alan Garcia, the colt sat well off of the early pace set by the two favorites, Wilburn and Joe Vann. Those two opened up a large lead early on over the rest of the few while racing out in the middle of the track. Turning into the homestretch, the two colts appeared to be on their way to a 1-2 finish. However, Alan Garcia had Scotus in gear on the far outside and the colt responded gamely to draw clear in the final eighth of a mile.
Infrattini closed well to finish second, with Joe Vann and Wilburn completing the superfecta.
-Keelerman
AWESOME MARIA WINS THE OGDEN PHIPPS!
Awesome Maria ran her winning streak to four consecutive races when she turned back the bid of Life at Ten in the Belmont Park homestretch to win the $250,000 Ogden Phipps Handicap (gr. I) by about two lengths.
Under John Velazquez, the filly -- who was sent off as the 3-5 favorite -- broke cleanly and raced up to track the early pace set by Absinthe Minded. Life at Ten was on their outside three wide in third, followed by Payton d'Oro and Super Expresso. The opening fractions were :23.05, :45.70, and 1:10.70.
Around the far turn, Absinthe Minded gave way, leaving Awesome Maria and Life at Ten to confront eachother turning for home. For a moment, they were head to head for the lead, but Awesome Maria turned back her older rival decisively and opened up a clear advantage. She continued to pour on the speed while holding off a late run from Payton d'Oro to win the race in impressive fashion.
The final time for the mile and a sixteenth was a sharp 1:41.40. Payton d'Oro came home second, just in front of Super Expresso. Life at Ten tired late in the stretch to finish fourth. Absinthe Minded trailed.
-Keelerman
Under John Velazquez, the filly -- who was sent off as the 3-5 favorite -- broke cleanly and raced up to track the early pace set by Absinthe Minded. Life at Ten was on their outside three wide in third, followed by Payton d'Oro and Super Expresso. The opening fractions were :23.05, :45.70, and 1:10.70.
Around the far turn, Absinthe Minded gave way, leaving Awesome Maria and Life at Ten to confront eachother turning for home. For a moment, they were head to head for the lead, but Awesome Maria turned back her older rival decisively and opened up a clear advantage. She continued to pour on the speed while holding off a late run from Payton d'Oro to win the race in impressive fashion.
The final time for the mile and a sixteenth was a sharp 1:41.40. Payton d'Oro came home second, just in front of Super Expresso. Life at Ten tired late in the stretch to finish fourth. Absinthe Minded trailed.
-Keelerman
OGDEN PHIPPS HANDICAP UPDATE
It is currently two minutes until post time for the Ogden Phipps Handicap (gr. I) at Belmont Park. The complexion of the race has changed seriously due to the fact that Unrivaled Belle, expected to be the second choice, was scratched by the stewards. I'm not sure why yet, but I will post the reason as soon as I find out why.
Of the five runners remaining, Awesome Maria is the 4-5 favorite. Life at Ten is the second choice at 4-1, with Payton d'Oro 9-2, Absinthe Minded 5-1, and Super Expresso 6-1.
-Keelerman
Of the five runners remaining, Awesome Maria is the 4-5 favorite. Life at Ten is the second choice at 4-1, with Payton d'Oro 9-2, Absinthe Minded 5-1, and Super Expresso 6-1.
-Keelerman
BANNED WINS THE JEFFERSON CUP!
He wasn't quite as impressive as he was when winning the American Turf Stakes (gr. II) last month, but Banned got the job done in the Jefferson Cup Stakes (gr. III) this afternoon at Churchill Downs.
Sent off as the 1-5 favorite against only three opponents, the son of Kitten's Joy broke cleanly and was sent up by jockey Jose Lezcano to track the early pace set by 8-1 shot Redboard. Perregaux was back in third, followed by Benergy in last. Only a couple of lengths seperated first from last.
Through moderate fractions, Redboard continued to show the way while Banned was keen to go on. Turning for home, Lezcano asked him for run and he accelerated past Redboard to take a commanding lead.
Perregaux and Benergy gamely gave chase, but Lezcano looked back confidently in the stretch and never really asked Banned for too much run. The colt drew away in the stretch to win by a few lengths, stopping the clock for the mile and a sixteenth in 1:43.66.
Benergy outclosed Perregaux for second, while Redboard faded to finish last.
-Keelerman
Sent off as the 1-5 favorite against only three opponents, the son of Kitten's Joy broke cleanly and was sent up by jockey Jose Lezcano to track the early pace set by 8-1 shot Redboard. Perregaux was back in third, followed by Benergy in last. Only a couple of lengths seperated first from last.
Through moderate fractions, Redboard continued to show the way while Banned was keen to go on. Turning for home, Lezcano asked him for run and he accelerated past Redboard to take a commanding lead.
Perregaux and Benergy gamely gave chase, but Lezcano looked back confidently in the stretch and never really asked Banned for too much run. The colt drew away in the stretch to win by a few lengths, stopping the clock for the mile and a sixteenth in 1:43.66.
Benergy outclosed Perregaux for second, while Redboard faded to finish last.
-Keelerman
STREET GAME WINS THE HILL PRINCE!
Street Game went straight to the lead, set an easy pace, and kicked clear to win the $100,000 Hill Prince Stakes (gr. III) at Belmont Park this afternoon after five or six lengths.
Under Ryan Curatolo, the colt sped away to an easy early lead through moderate fractions. Humble and Hungry tracked him in second, followed by Longhunter along the rail. Favored Air Support was back next to last early on.
The opening fractions were :24.56 and :48.92. Entering the homestretch, Longhunter made a bid along the rail to challenge for the lead, but Street Game turned him back easily to win the race under a hand ride. Air Support rallied belatedly for second, followed by Humble and Hungry and Longhunter. The final time was 1:36.38.
-Keelerman
Under Ryan Curatolo, the colt sped away to an easy early lead through moderate fractions. Humble and Hungry tracked him in second, followed by Longhunter along the rail. Favored Air Support was back next to last early on.
The opening fractions were :24.56 and :48.92. Entering the homestretch, Longhunter made a bid along the rail to challenge for the lead, but Street Game turned him back easily to win the race under a hand ride. Air Support rallied belatedly for second, followed by Humble and Hungry and Longhunter. The final time was 1:36.38.
-Keelerman
BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN ---- June 17th, 2011
Welcome back the Breeders' Cup Countdown! With the Triple Crown recently concluded, focus has shifted to Churchill Downs for the 28th running of the Breeders' Cup in early November. All kinds of terrific early Breeders' Cup prep races are scheduled to be run this weekend, and here are my thoughts on a number of them.
Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I)
The Stephen Foster Handicap, won in recent years by champions Curlin and Blame, has drawn an intriguing field of runners for the 30th running of the race. This year's edition should go a long way toward determining who the champion older male of 2011 shall be, for it has drawn many of the top contenders.
Giant Oak, winner of the Donn Handicap (gr. I) back in February, is the mild morning line favorite at 7-2. He has always been a quality stakes horse, but he rarely finishes off his late run. Usually, he is coming slowly from behind, grinding past all but one or two horses. After his brilliant Donn Handicap -- accomplished via a very fast pace in front of him -- he ran third in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) behind Mission Impazible and Apart and fifth in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) last time out, beaten just three-quarters of a length. He ran well here in the Clark Handicap (gr. I) last November, finishing a close second before being place first after the winner was disqualified.
Crown of Thorns, winner of the Mervyn LeRoy Handicap (gr. II) last time out over the extremely talented Sidney's Candy, is the second choice. He is not the soundest of horses -- he has raced only ten times, even though he made his debut in late 2007 -- but he is immensely talented. His Mervyn LeRoy score was extremely impressive, and I would not be surprised at all if he wins this race.
Other contenders are Apart, winner of the William Donald Schaefer Memorial Stakes (gr. III) last time out; Mission Impazible, the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) winner; Flat Out, second in the Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III) after a lengthy layoff; Regal Ransom, beaten a nose in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) last time out; Equestrio, third in that same race; and Duke of Mischief, winner of the Charles Town Classic Stakes (gr. III). Wordly, El Caballo, recent allowance winners, and Pool Play, runner-up in the 1 1/2 mile Elkhorn Stakes (gr. II) on turf, complete the field.
Equestrio really fascinates me. He ran huge in the Alysheba Stakes despite racing along a dead-rail for much of the race. We just saw Stay Thirsty emerge from a poor performance in the Kentucky Derby after racing along that same dead rail to finish second in the Belmont Stakes. Hmm. . .
Vanity Handicap (gr. I)
For the first time since 2007, the Vanity Handicap will not be won by a certain mare named Zenyatta. The amazing talent of the three-time Vanity winning champion scared many good horses away from the nine furlong Hollywood Park event. But since she has been retired -- and is thus not competing in the 2011 edition of the race -- a terrific field of fillies and mares have turned out for the prestigious event.
The 8-5 morning line favorite is Switch, impressive winner of the La Brea Stakes (gr. I) and Santa Monica Handicap (gr. I) in December and January, respectively. Although she is likely at her very best sprinting, she has proven very good in route races, finishing second to Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret Handicap (gr. I), second to Havre de Grace in the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I), and second to Miss Match in the Santa Margarita Handicap (gr. I).
Speaking of Miss Match, she is also in this race at 10-1 on the morning line. Her victory over Switch in the Santa Margarita was probably due more to the blazing pace which Switch helped set, enabling Miss Match to come flying late with her closing rally. Chasing a more reasonable pace in her next and most recent start, the Apple Blossom Handicap, she finished a very distant fourth to Havre de Grace and Switch, beaten by over twelve lengths.
Blind Luck, last year's champion three-year-old filly after scoring victories in the Las Virgenes, Kentucky Oaks, and Alabama Stakes (all grade I), is the 2-1 morning line second choice. Four consecutive runner-up performances followed her Alabama win, and in early 2011 it appeared as though she might have lost a step. But after defeating Unrivaled Belle in the La Troienne Stakes (gr. II) -- a race in which she stumbled badly at the start -- she has regained some of her stature and a victory in the the Vanity would further bolster her championship credentials.
St. Trinians is 5-2 on the morning line. She nearly pulled off an upset over Zenyatta in last year's Vanity, falling just a half-length short of holding off the champion. Given the rest of the year off after that hard race, she was less than stellar when third in the Santa Maria Stakes (gr. II) and fourth in the Santa Margarita Stakes (gr. I) over Santa Anita's dirt main track. However, when returned to a synthetic track in Hollywood Park's Milady Handicap (gr. II) -- the local prep for this race -- she ran huge to win by a length and a quarter, but was disqualified for drifting out in the stretch. However, that effort signals that she is ready for a top effort here.
American Story and She's Cheeky, third and fourth in the Milady before being placed second and third via St. Trinian's disqualification, complete the lineup of talented fillies and mares.
Ogden Phipps Handicap (gr. I)
Last year, Life at Ten streaked into the Ogden Phipps Handicap on a winning streak and as the second choice in a field of five, won by 2 3/4 lengths. This year, she enters of the Ogden Phipps off of two poor performances against lesser competition. Thus, she is the longest short on the morning line at 10-1.
The 7-5 morning line favorite is Awesome Maria, who is 3-for-3 this year. After defeating Amen Hallelujah in the Sabin Stakes (gr. III) in her 2011 debut, she dominated in the Rampart Stakes (gr. III), winning by eight lengths by the 2010 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic winner Unrivaled Belle ran third. Last time out, she closed gamely to defeat Absinthe Minded in the Shuvee Handicap (gr. II) by a head.
Speaking of Unrivaled Belle, she is the 2-1 morning line second choice here. Runner-up in this race last year to Life at Ten, she subsequently ran second in the Ruffian Handicap (gr. I) and Beldame Stakes (gr. I) before decisively winning the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic over a pair of really nice fillies in Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. After finishing third in her 2011 debut, the above-mentioned Rampart Stakes, she returned to finish a strong second to Blind Luck in the La Troienne Stakes (gr. II) last time out. Making her third start off her layoff, she should be prepared to run her best race.
Absinthe Minded, second to Awesome Maria in the Shuvee, is back for another try at the favorite. Super Expresso, who defeated Life at Ten in the Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes last time out; and Payton d'Oro, second in that same race, complete the field.
Pegasus Stakes (gr. III)
The mile and a sixteenth Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park on Saturday has drawn a small but solid field of six three-year-olds. Won last year by Afleet Express, who went on to win the Travers Stakes (gr. I), this year's edition is led by Louisiana Derby winner Pants On Fire. The colt, who defeated the eventual second and third place Kentucky Derby finishers Nehro and Mucho Macho Man in Louisiana, finished a disappointing ninth in the Kentucky Derby, but bled during the race. Given a bit of a break since then, the Pegasus will be his first start since the Derby and a step toward the Haskell Invitational in early August. Regular rider Rosie Nepravnik has the mount.
His main competition may come from Rush Now. The colt won the Dover Stakes last year and placed in a couple of other little stakes races this year before turning in a magnificent performance last time out, leading all the way in the Spend a Buck Stakes over this same track to win decisively. If he can get a clear lead early on, he could prove impossible to catch -- but this may not be possible with Pants On Fire also interested in the lead.
Clarke Lane, late-running third in the Alydar Stakes last time out, has never tried dirt before but has a potent late kick. With a solid pace in front of him, he could definitely be in the mix here. Turbo Compressor won a mile and a sixteenth allowance race by 13 1/2 lengths last time out in a breakthrough performance, and if he repeats it here he could prove a serious threat. Concealed Identity defeated Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice in the Federico Tesio Stakes in early May, but subsequently ran tenth in the Preakness Stakes. Harlan's Hello has made eight starts this year, most recently winning a mile and a sixteenth allowance optional claiming race at Belmont Park.
Red Legend Stakes
A field of ten has turned out for the feature race at Charles Town on Saturday, the $400,000 seven furlong Red Legend Stakes for three-year-olds.
The morning line favorite is J P's Gusto, a top-level two-year-old who failed to earn his way to the Kentucky Derby after performing dismally in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and Arkansas Derby (gr. I). However, he has always been at his very best sprinting, and a return to the seven furlong distance of the Red Legend Stakes should enable him to run a much improved race. After all, he won the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) at this distance last summer!
Decisive Moment, second to Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom in the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III) before running fourteenth in the Kentucky Derby, is the second choice and should appreciate the turn back in distance. Little Drama, third in both the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) and Swale Stakes (gr. II) at the Gulfstream meet, enters the Red Legend off of a sharp victory in the seven furlong Philmont Stakes at Parx Racing, which he won in 1:21.82. Yankee Pashion won a six furlong allowance race at Oaklawn in January, but has not raced since finishing fifth in the Southwest Stakes on month later. Loranger Native won the Blue and Gold Stakes last time out going seven furlongs, but hasn't been facing this caliber of competition. Black N Beauty ran fourth last time out in Woodbine's Woodstock Stakes. Vee's Accolade has been sprinting well against some good horses recently and may be able to hit the board at a decent price. B G Suavecito, Der Meister, and Nacho Saint complete the field.
Other Stakes Races
* The Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs has drawn a great field, including the promising Wilburn, Illinois Derby (gr. II) winner Joe Vann, Scotus, a solid allowance runner, and Uncle Brent, winner of the Northern Spur Stakes in April. With a field of this caliber, I would not be surprised if numerous future stakes winners emerge from this race. I am particularly impressed with Wilburn, whom I think could be a future star.
* The Jefferson Cup Stakes (gr. III) -- also at Churchill Downs -- has drawn a field of eight, but at the time I am writing this, four runners have scratched. The heavy favorite is Banned, who turned in a simply destructive performance in the American Turf Stakes (gr. II) last time out at Churchill Downs. Words cannot begin to describe how impressive his late run was. It was amazing. He isn't facing much today -- a pair of maiden special weight winners Redboard and Benergy, who are facing winners for the first time today, and Perregaux, runner-up in a recent one-mile turf allowance race.
* The one-mile Hill Prince Stakes (gr. III) on the turf at Belmont Park has drawn a field of nine, led by multiple graded stakes winner Air Support. The colt won the Transylvania Stakes (gr. III) in his 2011 debut, then ran third in the American Turf Stakes (gr. II) behind Banned. However, the one-mile distance of this race may actually be a bit short for him. If this is the case, then Chinglish, Humble and Hungry, and Master Dunker, the first through third place finishers in the James W. Murphy Stakes last time out, could all pull off an upset. Fastest Magician and Longhunter, the 1-2 finishers in the A Gift Stakes, could also contend.
* The $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup Stakes, open for the first time this year to older horses, has drawn a very good field of eight. The morning line favorite is Smart Bid, who has finished in the top three in all four starts this year. He won the Mervin H. Muniz Memorial Handicap (gr. II) two starts back, then most recently rallied strongly to just miss catching Get Stormy in the grade I Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I). Moryba, sixth in the Turf Classic and third in the Mervin Muniz, is the second choice. Court Vision won the Woodbine Mile Stakes (gr. I) last summer, but has not finished in the top three since then. Guys Reward was third last time out, beaten two noses, in the Louisville Handicap (gr. III). When he can set a slow pace, he can be tough to pass.
-Keelerman
Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I)
The Stephen Foster Handicap, won in recent years by champions Curlin and Blame, has drawn an intriguing field of runners for the 30th running of the race. This year's edition should go a long way toward determining who the champion older male of 2011 shall be, for it has drawn many of the top contenders.
Giant Oak, winner of the Donn Handicap (gr. I) back in February, is the mild morning line favorite at 7-2. He has always been a quality stakes horse, but he rarely finishes off his late run. Usually, he is coming slowly from behind, grinding past all but one or two horses. After his brilliant Donn Handicap -- accomplished via a very fast pace in front of him -- he ran third in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) behind Mission Impazible and Apart and fifth in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) last time out, beaten just three-quarters of a length. He ran well here in the Clark Handicap (gr. I) last November, finishing a close second before being place first after the winner was disqualified.
Crown of Thorns, winner of the Mervyn LeRoy Handicap (gr. II) last time out over the extremely talented Sidney's Candy, is the second choice. He is not the soundest of horses -- he has raced only ten times, even though he made his debut in late 2007 -- but he is immensely talented. His Mervyn LeRoy score was extremely impressive, and I would not be surprised at all if he wins this race.
Other contenders are Apart, winner of the William Donald Schaefer Memorial Stakes (gr. III) last time out; Mission Impazible, the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) winner; Flat Out, second in the Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III) after a lengthy layoff; Regal Ransom, beaten a nose in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) last time out; Equestrio, third in that same race; and Duke of Mischief, winner of the Charles Town Classic Stakes (gr. III). Wordly, El Caballo, recent allowance winners, and Pool Play, runner-up in the 1 1/2 mile Elkhorn Stakes (gr. II) on turf, complete the field.
Equestrio really fascinates me. He ran huge in the Alysheba Stakes despite racing along a dead-rail for much of the race. We just saw Stay Thirsty emerge from a poor performance in the Kentucky Derby after racing along that same dead rail to finish second in the Belmont Stakes. Hmm. . .
Vanity Handicap (gr. I)
For the first time since 2007, the Vanity Handicap will not be won by a certain mare named Zenyatta. The amazing talent of the three-time Vanity winning champion scared many good horses away from the nine furlong Hollywood Park event. But since she has been retired -- and is thus not competing in the 2011 edition of the race -- a terrific field of fillies and mares have turned out for the prestigious event.
The 8-5 morning line favorite is Switch, impressive winner of the La Brea Stakes (gr. I) and Santa Monica Handicap (gr. I) in December and January, respectively. Although she is likely at her very best sprinting, she has proven very good in route races, finishing second to Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret Handicap (gr. I), second to Havre de Grace in the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I), and second to Miss Match in the Santa Margarita Handicap (gr. I).
Speaking of Miss Match, she is also in this race at 10-1 on the morning line. Her victory over Switch in the Santa Margarita was probably due more to the blazing pace which Switch helped set, enabling Miss Match to come flying late with her closing rally. Chasing a more reasonable pace in her next and most recent start, the Apple Blossom Handicap, she finished a very distant fourth to Havre de Grace and Switch, beaten by over twelve lengths.
Blind Luck, last year's champion three-year-old filly after scoring victories in the Las Virgenes, Kentucky Oaks, and Alabama Stakes (all grade I), is the 2-1 morning line second choice. Four consecutive runner-up performances followed her Alabama win, and in early 2011 it appeared as though she might have lost a step. But after defeating Unrivaled Belle in the La Troienne Stakes (gr. II) -- a race in which she stumbled badly at the start -- she has regained some of her stature and a victory in the the Vanity would further bolster her championship credentials.
St. Trinians is 5-2 on the morning line. She nearly pulled off an upset over Zenyatta in last year's Vanity, falling just a half-length short of holding off the champion. Given the rest of the year off after that hard race, she was less than stellar when third in the Santa Maria Stakes (gr. II) and fourth in the Santa Margarita Stakes (gr. I) over Santa Anita's dirt main track. However, when returned to a synthetic track in Hollywood Park's Milady Handicap (gr. II) -- the local prep for this race -- she ran huge to win by a length and a quarter, but was disqualified for drifting out in the stretch. However, that effort signals that she is ready for a top effort here.
American Story and She's Cheeky, third and fourth in the Milady before being placed second and third via St. Trinian's disqualification, complete the lineup of talented fillies and mares.
Ogden Phipps Handicap (gr. I)
Last year, Life at Ten streaked into the Ogden Phipps Handicap on a winning streak and as the second choice in a field of five, won by 2 3/4 lengths. This year, she enters of the Ogden Phipps off of two poor performances against lesser competition. Thus, she is the longest short on the morning line at 10-1.
The 7-5 morning line favorite is Awesome Maria, who is 3-for-3 this year. After defeating Amen Hallelujah in the Sabin Stakes (gr. III) in her 2011 debut, she dominated in the Rampart Stakes (gr. III), winning by eight lengths by the 2010 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic winner Unrivaled Belle ran third. Last time out, she closed gamely to defeat Absinthe Minded in the Shuvee Handicap (gr. II) by a head.
Speaking of Unrivaled Belle, she is the 2-1 morning line second choice here. Runner-up in this race last year to Life at Ten, she subsequently ran second in the Ruffian Handicap (gr. I) and Beldame Stakes (gr. I) before decisively winning the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic over a pair of really nice fillies in Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. After finishing third in her 2011 debut, the above-mentioned Rampart Stakes, she returned to finish a strong second to Blind Luck in the La Troienne Stakes (gr. II) last time out. Making her third start off her layoff, she should be prepared to run her best race.
Absinthe Minded, second to Awesome Maria in the Shuvee, is back for another try at the favorite. Super Expresso, who defeated Life at Ten in the Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes last time out; and Payton d'Oro, second in that same race, complete the field.
Pegasus Stakes (gr. III)
The mile and a sixteenth Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park on Saturday has drawn a small but solid field of six three-year-olds. Won last year by Afleet Express, who went on to win the Travers Stakes (gr. I), this year's edition is led by Louisiana Derby winner Pants On Fire. The colt, who defeated the eventual second and third place Kentucky Derby finishers Nehro and Mucho Macho Man in Louisiana, finished a disappointing ninth in the Kentucky Derby, but bled during the race. Given a bit of a break since then, the Pegasus will be his first start since the Derby and a step toward the Haskell Invitational in early August. Regular rider Rosie Nepravnik has the mount.
His main competition may come from Rush Now. The colt won the Dover Stakes last year and placed in a couple of other little stakes races this year before turning in a magnificent performance last time out, leading all the way in the Spend a Buck Stakes over this same track to win decisively. If he can get a clear lead early on, he could prove impossible to catch -- but this may not be possible with Pants On Fire also interested in the lead.
Clarke Lane, late-running third in the Alydar Stakes last time out, has never tried dirt before but has a potent late kick. With a solid pace in front of him, he could definitely be in the mix here. Turbo Compressor won a mile and a sixteenth allowance race by 13 1/2 lengths last time out in a breakthrough performance, and if he repeats it here he could prove a serious threat. Concealed Identity defeated Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice in the Federico Tesio Stakes in early May, but subsequently ran tenth in the Preakness Stakes. Harlan's Hello has made eight starts this year, most recently winning a mile and a sixteenth allowance optional claiming race at Belmont Park.
Red Legend Stakes
A field of ten has turned out for the feature race at Charles Town on Saturday, the $400,000 seven furlong Red Legend Stakes for three-year-olds.
The morning line favorite is J P's Gusto, a top-level two-year-old who failed to earn his way to the Kentucky Derby after performing dismally in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and Arkansas Derby (gr. I). However, he has always been at his very best sprinting, and a return to the seven furlong distance of the Red Legend Stakes should enable him to run a much improved race. After all, he won the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) at this distance last summer!
Decisive Moment, second to Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom in the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III) before running fourteenth in the Kentucky Derby, is the second choice and should appreciate the turn back in distance. Little Drama, third in both the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) and Swale Stakes (gr. II) at the Gulfstream meet, enters the Red Legend off of a sharp victory in the seven furlong Philmont Stakes at Parx Racing, which he won in 1:21.82. Yankee Pashion won a six furlong allowance race at Oaklawn in January, but has not raced since finishing fifth in the Southwest Stakes on month later. Loranger Native won the Blue and Gold Stakes last time out going seven furlongs, but hasn't been facing this caliber of competition. Black N Beauty ran fourth last time out in Woodbine's Woodstock Stakes. Vee's Accolade has been sprinting well against some good horses recently and may be able to hit the board at a decent price. B G Suavecito, Der Meister, and Nacho Saint complete the field.
Other Stakes Races
* The Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs has drawn a great field, including the promising Wilburn, Illinois Derby (gr. II) winner Joe Vann, Scotus, a solid allowance runner, and Uncle Brent, winner of the Northern Spur Stakes in April. With a field of this caliber, I would not be surprised if numerous future stakes winners emerge from this race. I am particularly impressed with Wilburn, whom I think could be a future star.
* The Jefferson Cup Stakes (gr. III) -- also at Churchill Downs -- has drawn a field of eight, but at the time I am writing this, four runners have scratched. The heavy favorite is Banned, who turned in a simply destructive performance in the American Turf Stakes (gr. II) last time out at Churchill Downs. Words cannot begin to describe how impressive his late run was. It was amazing. He isn't facing much today -- a pair of maiden special weight winners Redboard and Benergy, who are facing winners for the first time today, and Perregaux, runner-up in a recent one-mile turf allowance race.
* The one-mile Hill Prince Stakes (gr. III) on the turf at Belmont Park has drawn a field of nine, led by multiple graded stakes winner Air Support. The colt won the Transylvania Stakes (gr. III) in his 2011 debut, then ran third in the American Turf Stakes (gr. II) behind Banned. However, the one-mile distance of this race may actually be a bit short for him. If this is the case, then Chinglish, Humble and Hungry, and Master Dunker, the first through third place finishers in the James W. Murphy Stakes last time out, could all pull off an upset. Fastest Magician and Longhunter, the 1-2 finishers in the A Gift Stakes, could also contend.
* The $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup Stakes, open for the first time this year to older horses, has drawn a very good field of eight. The morning line favorite is Smart Bid, who has finished in the top three in all four starts this year. He won the Mervin H. Muniz Memorial Handicap (gr. II) two starts back, then most recently rallied strongly to just miss catching Get Stormy in the grade I Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I). Moryba, sixth in the Turf Classic and third in the Mervin Muniz, is the second choice. Court Vision won the Woodbine Mile Stakes (gr. I) last summer, but has not finished in the top three since then. Guys Reward was third last time out, beaten two noses, in the Louisville Handicap (gr. III). When he can set a slow pace, he can be tough to pass.
-Keelerman
Friday, June 17, 2011
2011 TRIPLE CROWN REVIEW
After months of anticipation and excitement, the 2011 Triple Crown has finally drawn to a close. Fitting to a year of major upsets in prep races, all three of the Triple Crown races were won in upset fashion. The following is a recap of this year's Triple Crown and the trails that led to it, including the results of the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest between J.R. and I. Enjoy!
Belmont Stakes Recap
The 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes was billed as a match between Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness winner Shackleford. In the end, however, neither hit the board in a Belmont Stakes that produced a more shocking upset than Animal Kingdom's Derby victory five weeks prior.
Instead, it was the previously unheralded Ruler On Ice who held off a stubborn Stay Thirsty in the stretch of the Test of Champions to win the biggest race of his career.
The start of the race was perhaps the most controversial part of the event. Over a sloppy sealed track, and before a crowd of roughly 55,000, the gates opened and the twelve runners were sent on their way. However, a couple of strides after the start, longshot Isn't He Perfect came in and bumped Mucho Macho Man, who in turn bumped into Animal Kingdom. This caused Animal Kingdom to clip heels with Monzon, which nearly caused the Derby winner-and-favorite to fall. Miraculously, the colt stayed on his feet, but the stumble nearly sent rider John Velazquez out of the saddle. As it turned out, Velazquez lost his left iron and spent a good sixteenth of a mile just getting back into the saddle. By this time, he and his mount were dead last -- over a track that had been favoring speed all day. At this point, their race was over.
Thus we head to the front of the pack, where the leaders would have every chance to hang on over the biased surface. Shackleford had broken quickly from gate twelve and had launched himself to an early lead of two lengths after running the opening quarter in a stiff :23.92. On the outside, Ruler On Ice at 24.75-1, was rating comfortably in second. Stay Thirsty was third toward the rail, followed by Santiva on the extreme outside. Nehro was tucked in along the rail sitting fifth, followed by Mucho Macho Man in the three path, Prime Cut just a head behind him, Isn't He Perfect in eighth, Brilliant Speed on the outside ninth, Master of Hounds in tenth, Monzon eleventh, and poor Animal Kingdom in last. The Derby winner was nearly fifteen lengths off the pace early on.
Up front, Shackleford was doing a good job of slowing the pace down, recording a half-mile in :49.08, three-quarters in 1:14.51, and a mile in 1:39.95. Behind him, the positions hadn't changed all that much, with a couple of notable exceptions. Brilliant Speed was inching up into contention on the outside and Animal Kingdom had passed two horses while moving into tenth place. Still, Shackleford was getting an easy trip and would be tough to pass in the stretch.
Ruler On Ice and Stay Thirsty, meanwhile, were still racing second and third, just behind Shackleford's pace. Both were looking good halfway through the race.
Shackleford continued to play "Catch me if you can!" with the field, running a mile and a quarter in 2:05.09. He entered the homestretch on top by a length, flooring the pedal in his drive for the wire. But behind him, the race was beginning to unfold dramatically. Ruler On Ice was still sitting in second, but Brilliant Speed had launched himself into contention with a brilliant move on the far turn and was now racing third, just two lengths behind Shackleford. Even more shocking was the move that Animal Kingdom was making. With a burst of speed around the far turn, he had driven past Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Santiva, and Prime Cut like they were standing still and was now racing fifth, just four lengths from the lead. The contenders were in contention. The race had begun.
Suddenly, everything fell apart with alarming speed. Shackleford, after looking strong turning for home, had come up empty. No matter how slow the pace was, and no matter how biased the track was, and no matter how talented he was, Shackleford was unable to overcome his breeding. He held on well to the eighth pole, then gave way. He would finish fifth.
Animal Kingdom had overcome a bad start and a biased track to reach contention on the far turn. But he could not overcome his exhaustion. He had used his late run to get into a position to strike, and sadly could offer no more in the homestretch. He would finish sixth.
Brilliant Speed had raced against the bias while running far behind early, had looped his way into contention on the far turn, and drove to within a length of the lead at the eighth pole. But like Animal Kingdom, he had used his late run on the far turn. He would flatten out a bit to finish third.
This left Ruler On Ice and Stay Thirsty to engage in a thrilling stretch duel down the long Belmont Park homestretch.
Both had stayed close to the front, heeding the bias. Both had benefited from Shackleford's slow pace, and now they had only each other to defeat. They had conquered the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Spiral Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes, Risen Star Stakes, Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and the Count Fleet Stakes. They had defeated the runner-ups from the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby, UAE Derby, Risen Star Stakes, and Lexington Stakes. Furthermore, they had left in the dust the third place finishers from the Kentucky Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Peter Pan Stakes. Together, they had conquered what has been billed as one of the finest fields in the history of the Belmont Stakes. They had both run winning races, deserving of great accolades. Only one question remained -- who would win?
Sadly, one of the colts would have to lose. Stay Thirsty had hugged the rail all the way around the track and figured to have more stamina left. But it was Ruler On Ice, three to four wide throughout, who gamely clung to the lead throughout that final, hard eighth of a mile to score a three-quarter length victory in the Test of Champions.
Stay Thirsty was courageous to the finish, ending up a length and a half clear of Brilliant Speed. Nehro outfinished the two classic winners for fifth, denying Shackleford the honor of hitting the board by a neck. Animal Kingdom finished a length and a half further back in sixth. It was all of fifteen lengths back to Mucho Macho Man, who had made a bold run to reach contention on the far turn before tiring badly late.
The complete order of finish was:
1 Ruler On Ice
2 Stay Thirsty
3 Brilliant Speed
4 Nehro
5 Shackleford
6 Animal Kingdom
7 Mucho Macho Man
8 Santiva
9 Monzon
10 Master of Hounds
11 Prime Cut
12 Isn't He Perfect
Versus my selections . . .
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Animal Kingdom
3 Santiva
4 Nehro
5 Shackleford
6 Master of Hounds
7 Brilliant Speed
8 Monzon
9 Prime Cut
10 Stay Thirsty
11 Ruler On Ice
12 Isn't He Perfect
. . . and J.R.’s picks.
1 Master of Hounds
2 Nehro
3 Animal Kingdom
4 Brilliant Speed
5 Santiva
6 Stay Thirsty
7 Mucho Macho Man
8 Monzon
9 Shackleford
10 Prime Cut
11 Isn't He Perfect
12 Ruler On Ice
As you can see, neither of us had any idea as to who would win! J.R. and I had a good laugh, though, when we realized that for the second straight year, J.R. picked the eventual winner to finish last.
Now here are the “Highest Beyer Speed Figure In Last Race” picks:
1 Shackleford
2 Animal Kingdom
3 Nehro
4 Master of Hounds (Three-horse dead-heat with Santiva and Brilliant Speed)
4 Santiva
4 Brilliant Speed
7 Mucho Macho Man
8 Prime Cut (Dead-heat with Isn't He Perfect)
8 Isn't He Perfect
10 Stay Thirsty
11 Ruler On Ice
12 Monzon
And the “Random Picks”:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Stay Thirsty
3 Monzon
4 Shackleford
5 Master of Hounds
6 Nehro
7 Ruler On Ice
8 Brilliant Speed
9 Isn't He Perfect
10 Santiva
11 Animal Kingdom
12 Prime Cut
To be perfectly honest . . . I think that the Random Picks did best!
Pace Analysis
Normally, I don’t include a section in my posts analyzing the pace of a major race, but I feel that this Belmont Stakes deserves such a section.
I would like to compare the pace of the 2011 Belmont Stakes to the 2010 edition won by Drosselmeyer. Take a look:
2011 Belmont - :23.92, :49.08, 1:14.51, 1:39.95, 2:05.09, 2:30.88
2010 Belmont - :24.15, :49.19, 1:14.94, 1:40.25, 2:04.97, 2:31.57
Both races had a similar setup, with a lone speed horse going to the lead and slowing the pace down before tiring in the final eighth of a mile. This year, that horse was Shackleford. Last year, the horse was First Dude. Shackleford finished fifth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths. First Dude finished third, beaten a length.
Overall, the 2010 Belmont Stakes pace was on average 27.5 hundreths of a second slower than the 2011 pace. The 2010 Belmont runners ran slower at every call except for the mile and a quarter fraction, where they ran 12 hundredths of a second faster. So, as you can see, the 2010 Belmont runners ran slower for the first mile, then turned in a :24.72 second fifth quarter to reach a mile and a quarter in 2:04.97. They then slowed down and closed their final quarter in :26.60. In contrast, the 2011 Belmont runners ran their fifth quarter in :25.14 -- 42 hundredths of a second slower than in the 2010 Belmont -- yet closed their final quarter in :25.79, which is 81 hundredths of a second faster than in the 2010 Belmont.
Now comes the really fascinating part. The 2011 Belmont was run over a sloppy track, while the 2010 Belmont was run on a fast surface. On the surface, this makes the 2011 running of the Belmont Stakes look considerably stronger than the 2010 edition. The final time of this year's Belmont was faster than last year's, and they did it over an off track.
But take a glance at the Beyer Speed figures earned by the two winners for their victories. Drosselmeyer earned a 94; Ruler On Ice a 100. Surely, the difference between these figures should be larger. After all, Ruler On Ice recorded a faster final time than Drosselmeyer and did it over a sloppy track! All logic seems to say that Ruler On Ice ran a much better race than Drosselmeyer did last year.
However, upon further examination, we find that this is not the case. The difference in the final times of the two races was 69 hundreths of a second, or when you rounded to the nearest fifth, three-fifths. Ruler On Ice ran three-fifths of a second faster than Drosselmeyer. When you take into account the difference in the final times of the two races -- that 69 hundreths -- we find that this equates to a difference of roughly four Beyer points at a mile and a half. Thus, had Ruler On Ice recorded an identical final time to what Drosselmeyer ran last year, he would have earned a Beyer of about 96, perhaps 95 -- virtually identical to Drosselmeyer's. Which means that the track variant for the Belmont Stakes in 2011 and 2010 was virtually identical as well -- just a tad bit slower.
Which brings us back to the pace setups in the two different races. Forget all of the calculations that we just discussed above. Ruler On Ice earned a 100 in his Belmont victory; Drosselmeyer a 94. Ruler On Ice earned the better figure.
Yet could he have beaten last year's Belmont field? According to rough calculations, Ruler On Ice ran his opening quarter mile just a little bit slower than First Dude did in the 2010 Belmont Stakes. First Dude was on the lead. Thus, we can safely assume that Ruler On Ice would have been right behind First Dude in the early stages. He probably would have remained right behind him for much of the race, and after a mile they should have been pretty much even. Yet here is where things get interesting.
In the 2011 Belmont, Ruler On Ice ran his fifth quarter in approximately :25.14 seconds. First Dude ran his in :24.72, a difference of 42 hundredths, as mentioned above. If -- in this imaginary Belmont in which Ruler On Ice and First Dude are competing -- they ran their fifth quarters in the above-mentioned times, First Dude would have blasted clear of Ruler On Ice, leading his rival by two or three lengths turning for home. Yet in the 2010 Belmont, First Dude crawled home his own final quarter in roughly :26.80 seconds, while Ruler On Ice came home in roughly :25.59 -- a full 1 1/5th seconds faster, fast enough to catch First Dude with speed to spare.
Yet what is intriguing is the fact that this scenario would never occur. If First Dude and Ruler On Ice were racing together with a half-mile to run, there is no way that the jockey of First Dude is going to ask his colt to open up a big lead before the field enters the homestretch. He would wait patiently, allowing his mount to run just enough to stay in front of Ruler On Ice. If the latter ran his fifth quarter in :25.14 seconds, than First Dude would do the same -- in other words, he would run his fifth quarter roughly a half-second slower than he did in the 2010 Belmont Stakes, thus leaving him with additional stamina to use in the final quarter mile. With this additional stamina, he would not close his final quarter in :26.80. He would close it faster.
How much faster is open to question, and impossible to gauge. But he certainly would have made a race out of it.
On the other hand, we could say that the opposite happens. First Dude does speed up and run his fifth quarter in :24.72. Now let's say that Ruler On Ice, not wanting to be left behind, speeds up as well, thus running his fifth quarter in roughly :24.72. Having used more energy during the fifth quarter, Ruler On Ice is not going to close his sixth and final quarter in the roughly :25.59 that he did in the 2011 Belmont. He would slow down because he is more tired from the exhausting fifth quarter. Would he go slowly enough to allow First Dude to keep the lead? Again, this is open to question and impossible to gauge.
But we can take a carefully-thought-out guess. Listen closely: In the 2010 Belmont Stakes, First Dude ran the first three-quarters of a mile in 1:14.94. Using the very rough "one length equals one-fifth of a second" equation, we find that Ruler On Ice ran his first three-quarters of the 2011 Belmont in 1:14.71, or 23 hundredths of a second faster than First Dude. This is enough to put him in front of First Dude by roughly one length. Now take the last three quarters run by each horse in their respective Belmont Stakes. We find that First Dude ran his final three quarters in 1:16.83 seconds, while Ruler On Ice's final three quarters went in 1:16.56 -- 27 hundredths of a second faster. So if Ruler On Ice led First Dude by 23 hundredths of a second with six furlongs remaining, then added another 27 hundredths of a second to his lead, that equates to 50 hundredths of a second, or roughly 2 1/2 lengths. Thus, we can take a rough guess and state that Ruler On Ice might have been able to defeat First Dude by about 2 1/2 lengths.
Yet all of these calculations are only considering Ruler On Ice and First Dude, which is not completely fair, for First Dude did not win the 2010 Belmont Stakes. He was third. I have used him as an example simply because he was the early pacesetter and his fractional times are simple to caculate.
Now let us consider where Drosselmeyer might have finished against Ruler On Ice and First Dude in this imaginary Belmont Stakes. Drosselmeyer was 2 1/2 lengths behind First Dude in the 2010 Belmont after one mile. As mentioned above, Ruler On Ice ran fast enough to be right with First Dude after a mile. Thus, we find Drosselmeyer 2 1/2 lengths behind Ruler On Ice.
Yet in the 2010 Belmont Stakes, Drosselmeyer made up one length during the fifth quarter of a mile, which First Dude ran in :24.72. This means that Drosselmeyer ran his own fifth quarter in :24.72. Furthermore, Drosselmeyer made up the final length and a half on First Dude during the final quarter mile, run in :26.60 seconds. Thus Drosselmeyer ran his own final quarter in about :26.30 seconds. In addition, according to rough caculations, Drosselmeyer ran his fourth quarter in under :25 seconds -- perhaps about :24.85. This fraction is based on the fact that Drosselmeyer was about three lengths behind First Dude after three-quarters of a mile. According to further calculations, Ruler On Ice ran fast enough in his Belmont to be a length in front of First Dude in this imaginary match up. Thus, Ruler On Ice would lead Drosselmeyer by four lengths after three-quarters of a mile.
Now let's look at how fast Drosselmeyer and Ruler On Ice closed their final three-quarters of a mile in their respective Belmonts. Drosselmeyer closed in roughly 1:15.87; Ruler On Ice in 1:16.56 -- a difference of 69 hundredths, or about 3 1/2 lengths. Based on these fractions, we find that Drosselmeyer could have made up 3 1/2 lengths on Ruler On Ice in the final six furlongs, which would put him a half-length behind Ruler On Ice at the finish -- much closer than the final times and speed figures suggest. Close enough so that little bumps, and how wide each horse went on the turns, could affect the outcome. Remember -- Drosselmeyer raced five wide around the entire track in the 2010 Belmont Stakes. Ruler On Ice didn't go nearly as wide in 2011.
So after this extremely lengthy section of this post -- which I must admit, is longer than I intended it to be -- what have we discovered? Well, to be perfectly honest, not much. There were a lot of places in the above analysis that used "rough calculations" -- too many, in fact. Yet in conclusion, I feel that despite Ruler On Ice's superior final time and Beyer speed figure, Drosselmeyer -- and Fly Down for that matter, who close just as fast as Drosselmeyer did in the 2010 Belmont after a rough trip -- would have given Ruler On Ice everything he could handle in an imaginary Belmont Stakes. I guess you could say that I am defending Drosselmeyer to some extent, who has sort of become famous for winning what is regarded as perhaps the weakest Belmont in many years. At least he was good enough, by these calculations, to contend against the 2011 Belmont Stakes field. . .
Triple Crown Handicapping Contest Wrap-Up
After several months of weekly handicapping, close finishes, and stunning comebacks, the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest has finally reached its conclusion.
The early advantage was mine -- then J.R. took a sizeable lead. Then I battled back and had built up a nearly insurmountable lead prior to the Kentucky Oaks. But after J.R.'s selections finished second in the Oaks, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness -- while my respective picks ran fourth, eighth, and sixth -- it was J.R. who had taken the lead.
A few Saturdays later, we entered Belmont Stakes Saturday virtually tied, 181-178, with a three-point lead in my favor. Four contest races were scheduled -- the Affirmed Stakes (gr. III), the Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. I), the Acorn Stakes (gr. I), and the Belmont Stakes (gr. I).
The first race run was the Acorn Stakes, where I had sided with the heavy in Turbulent Descent while J.R. went out on a limb and picked 10-1 shot It's Tricky. On the far turn it looked like Turbulent Descent was going to blow right by the leaders, including It's Tricky, but the latter filly proved much too good, drawing away for a decisive victory.
The score was now 186-188, in J.R.'s favor.
Next up was the Woody Stephens Stakes. I had picked mild longshot Justin Phillip, while J.R. had selected the fine sprinter J J's Lucky Train. Justin Phillip went straight to the lead, took advantage of the speed bias, and coasted home clear by several lengths. J J's Lucky Train rallied late to just grab second.
The score was now 196-193, in my favor. Once again, I held a three point lead.
The Affirmed Stakes proved decisive in deciding the outcome of the contest. My selection was the favorite, Coil. J.R. had picked Alydar Stakes winner Awesome Patriot. Both colts were trained by Bob Baffert.
Coil, in his first start around two turns, held off a late run from Runflatout to win the race in sharp fashion. Awesome Patriot came home a disappointing fifth.
The score was now 206-193, in my favor. It would stay that way.
Going into the Belmont Stakes, J.R. was down by thirteen points and needed a strong performance by his selection Master of Hounds to get back into the picture. A win would have guaranteed victory for J.R. -- he would have earned fifty points, and even if my pick Mucho Macho Man were to finish second, I would only earn 25. That would have put the score at 231-243, giving J.R. a twelve point victory. However, Mucho Macho Man tired to finish seventh and Master of Hounds broke poorly and ran tenth. Neither of us earned a point, meaning that the final score was 206-193. I had won by thirteen points.
Let's take a look at how our picks fared over the course of the contest:
| Handicapper | # of races handicapped | Firsts | Seconds | Thirds |
| Keelerman | 47 | 18 | 2 | 7 |
| J.R. | 47 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
As you can see, I picked eleven more winners than J.R. did, but he still managed to finish very close to me thanks to his marvelous selections in the Oaks, Derby, and Preakness. Overall, 27 of my 47 selections finished in the top three, whereas 29 of J.R.'s 47 picks cracked the trifecta.
But J.R. is confident that I was just lucky. He is good-naturedly positive that my victory was a fluke, and has challenged me to a "Breeders' Cup Handicapping Contest". We had so much fun with this one. . . why not? We have agreed to hold a competition. We shall post the details sometime this week. Be sure to check it out!
Season in Review
The names Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, and Ruler On Ice might be on the tips of everyone's tongues today, but they were completely unknown when I posted my first "Triple Crown Top Twenty" in early December last year. Let us take a look at the twenty horses included on my list. Bold face denotes a horse that started in one of the Triple Crown races:
1 To Honor and Serve
2 Uncle Mo
3 Santiva
4 Comma to the Top
5 Brethren
6 Mucho Macho Man
7 Boys at Tosconova
8 Jaycito
9 Rogue Romance
10 Stay Thirsty
11 Premier Pegasus
12 Gourmet Dinner
13 Astrology
14 Awesome Feather
15 Read the Contract
16 Mountain Town
17 Major Gain
18 J P's Gusto
19 Decisive Moment
20 Curlinello
To Honor and Serve, Uncle Mo, Brethren, Boys at Tosconova, Jaycito, Rogue Romance, Premier Pegasus, Gourmet Dinner, Awesome Feather, Read the Contract, Mountain Town, Major Gain, J P's Gusto, and Curlinello all fell off of the Triple Crown trail due to injury or sickness -- or in the case of Read the Contract and J P's Gusto, a lack of ability to succeed at the caliber and/or distance of the Triple Crown races.
Other notable horses to enter the top twenty and then fall off again over the months were Tapizar, The Factor, Arthur's Tale, and Toby's Corner. One could argue that the most talented three-year-olds of this crop failed to make the starting gate for any of the Triple Crown races.
Fortunately, most of them are recuperating from whatever problems kept them from the classics. Uncle Mo and The Factor are both tentatively pointing toward the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) in late August. To Honor and Serve might be back in time to hit the races this fall -- with luck, perhaps the Jockey Club Gold Cup could be in his future. Brethren was given a break following a dismal finish in the Arkansas Derby and should be back to the races before too long. Premier Pegasus and Rogue Romance's bones are mending, Jaycito is back in training following a foot bruise, Gourmet Dinner is on his way back, and Awesome Feather is working out at Belmont Park. The only horse not on his way back to the races is Curlinello, who has been retired.
In Conclusion
Jockey John Velazquez won his first Kentucky Derby. Jockeys Jesus Castanon and Jose Valdivia, Jr. scored their first Triple Crown race victories in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, respectively. Trainers Graham Motion, Dale Romans, and Kelly Breen all won their first Triple Crown races with respective victories in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont.
Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, and Ruler On Ice all have the Haskell Invitational and Travers Stakes on their agendas, so as long as they all remain healthy we should see some really great races later this year. We have sophomores returning off of lengthy layoffs as well. We have up-and-comers like Coil, Smash, C J Russell, and Justin Phillip all entering the picture. Pants On Fire, Stay Thirsty, Mucho Macho Man, and Brilliant Speed add additional depth to this year's crop.
Maybe they don't earn the most impressive speed figures, or turn in the fastest final times. But this year's crop of three-year-olds have given us one thrilling race after another. In a year without a standout older male, one of these colts might just end up being Horse of the Year.
This weekend, the focus of this blog switches over to the Breeders' Cup, which is being held for the second straight year at Churchill Downs in early November. We might not have Zenyatta going for a repeat Classic win this year, but we have Goldikova, Havre de Grace, and Twirling Candy to be excited about. It's going to be a fun second half of the year! Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
Saturday, June 11, 2011
RULER ON ICE WINS THE BELMONT STAKES!
Ruler On Ice turned a stalking trip into a stunning victory in the Belmont Stakes, turning back the run of Stay Thirsty to win the 143rd running of the historic Belmont Stakes (gr. I) by a half-length.
Under Jose Valdivia, the colt tracked a moderate pace set by Preakness winner Shackleford in the early stages with Stay Thirsty racing third toward the inside. Favored Animal Kingdom clipped heels soon after the break and nearly unseated John Velazquez, ending up last in the early stages.
Shackleford led the field all the way around the far turn and entered the homestretch with the lead, but Ruler On Ice had plenty of energy left and claimed the lead in deep stretch. Stay Thirsty on the inside was rallying well, and Brilliant Speed on the far outside was right in contention too, but Ruler On Ice turned them all away to win his first stakes race.
Stay Thirsty finished second, followed by Brilliant Speed and Nehro. Shackleford tired to finish fifth, while Animal Kingdom made a sweeping run on the far turn to reach contention before flattening out. Mucho Macho Man was seventh.
-Keelerman
Under Jose Valdivia, the colt tracked a moderate pace set by Preakness winner Shackleford in the early stages with Stay Thirsty racing third toward the inside. Favored Animal Kingdom clipped heels soon after the break and nearly unseated John Velazquez, ending up last in the early stages.
Shackleford led the field all the way around the far turn and entered the homestretch with the lead, but Ruler On Ice had plenty of energy left and claimed the lead in deep stretch. Stay Thirsty on the inside was rallying well, and Brilliant Speed on the far outside was right in contention too, but Ruler On Ice turned them all away to win his first stakes race.
Stay Thirsty finished second, followed by Brilliant Speed and Nehro. Shackleford tired to finish fifth, while Animal Kingdom made a sweeping run on the far turn to reach contention before flattening out. Mucho Macho Man was seventh.
-Keelerman
Belmont Stakes Update #3
The Belmont Stakes is now only four minutes away. Ruler On Ice and Master of Hounds seemed to be just a bit upset during the post parade, with Master of Hounds actually breaking away from the parade.
The odds really haven't change, with Animal Kingdom still the 5-2 favorite. Monzon and Isn't He Perfect are the longshots at 25-1.
J.R. and I both like Shackleford better now that the track is sloppy and speed favoring, but have not changed our top picks.
-Keelerman
The odds really haven't change, with Animal Kingdom still the 5-2 favorite. Monzon and Isn't He Perfect are the longshots at 25-1.
J.R. and I both like Shackleford better now that the track is sloppy and speed favoring, but have not changed our top picks.
-Keelerman
Belmont Stakes Update #2
With the main track labeled sloppy and favoring speed, here are a few changes to my opinions on some of the Belmont starters:
* Shackleford is going to have every chance at winning. He is bred to love the slop, has the speed to go to the lead, and may prove simply impossible to catch.
* Brilliant Speed is also bred to handle the slop, and should relish the conditions of the race, but will the speed bias hurt this closer's chances?
Animal Kingdom is still the favorite at 5-2, with Nehro 9-2 and Master of Hounds 4-1. Mucho Macho Man is 7-1; Shackleford 8-1.
* Shackleford is going to have every chance at winning. He is bred to love the slop, has the speed to go to the lead, and may prove simply impossible to catch.
* Brilliant Speed is also bred to handle the slop, and should relish the conditions of the race, but will the speed bias hurt this closer's chances?
Animal Kingdom is still the favorite at 5-2, with Nehro 9-2 and Master of Hounds 4-1. Mucho Macho Man is 7-1; Shackleford 8-1.
MISSION APPROVED WINS THE MANHATTAN HANDICAP!
Mission Approved took them gate-to-wire at 21 in the grade I Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap this afternoon at Belmont Park, turning back bids from Bim Bam and Gio Ponti to win the race by two lengths.
Over a course labeled yielding, the seven-year-old gelding went straight to the lead and slowed the pace down, running three-quarters of a mile in 1:17 and change. In the meantime, favored Gio Ponti was far off the pace under Ramon Dominguez.
Turning for home, jockey Jose Espinoza asked Mission Approved for more run and the colt responded, kicking clear from the field and maintaining his advantage to the wire. Bim Bam, a 30-1 shot, rallied up the inside to finish second, a neck in front of Gio Ponti.
-Keelerman
Over a course labeled yielding, the seven-year-old gelding went straight to the lead and slowed the pace down, running three-quarters of a mile in 1:17 and change. In the meantime, favored Gio Ponti was far off the pace under Ramon Dominguez.
Turning for home, jockey Jose Espinoza asked Mission Approved for more run and the colt responded, kicking clear from the field and maintaining his advantage to the wire. Bim Bam, a 30-1 shot, rallied up the inside to finish second, a neck in front of Gio Ponti.
-Keelerman
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