Welcome back the Breeders' Cup Countdown! With the Triple Crown recently concluded, focus has shifted to Churchill Downs for the 28th running of the Breeders' Cup in early November. All kinds of terrific early Breeders' Cup prep races are scheduled to be run this weekend, and here are my thoughts on a number of them.
Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. I)
The Stephen Foster Handicap, won in recent years by champions Curlin and Blame, has drawn an intriguing field of runners for the 30th running of the race. This year's edition should go a long way toward determining who the champion older male of 2011 shall be, for it has drawn many of the top contenders.
Giant Oak, winner of the Donn Handicap (gr. I) back in February, is the mild morning line favorite at 7-2. He has always been a quality stakes horse, but he rarely finishes off his late run. Usually, he is coming slowly from behind, grinding past all but one or two horses. After his brilliant Donn Handicap -- accomplished via a very fast pace in front of him -- he ran third in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) behind Mission Impazible and Apart and fifth in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) last time out, beaten just three-quarters of a length. He ran well here in the Clark Handicap (gr. I) last November, finishing a close second before being place first after the winner was disqualified.
Crown of Thorns, winner of the Mervyn LeRoy Handicap (gr. II) last time out over the extremely talented Sidney's Candy, is the second choice. He is not the soundest of horses -- he has raced only ten times, even though he made his debut in late 2007 -- but he is immensely talented. His Mervyn LeRoy score was extremely impressive, and I would not be surprised at all if he wins this race.
Other contenders are Apart, winner of the William Donald Schaefer Memorial Stakes (gr. III) last time out; Mission Impazible, the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) winner; Flat Out, second in the Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III) after a lengthy layoff; Regal Ransom, beaten a nose in the Alysheba Stakes (gr. III) last time out; Equestrio, third in that same race; and Duke of Mischief, winner of the Charles Town Classic Stakes (gr. III). Wordly, El Caballo, recent allowance winners, and Pool Play, runner-up in the 1 1/2 mile Elkhorn Stakes (gr. II) on turf, complete the field.
Equestrio really fascinates me. He ran huge in the Alysheba Stakes despite racing along a dead-rail for much of the race. We just saw Stay Thirsty emerge from a poor performance in the Kentucky Derby after racing along that same dead rail to finish second in the Belmont Stakes. Hmm. . .
Vanity Handicap (gr. I)
For the first time since 2007, the Vanity Handicap will not be won by a certain mare named Zenyatta. The amazing talent of the three-time Vanity winning champion scared many good horses away from the nine furlong Hollywood Park event. But since she has been retired -- and is thus not competing in the 2011 edition of the race -- a terrific field of fillies and mares have turned out for the prestigious event.
The 8-5 morning line favorite is Switch, impressive winner of the La Brea Stakes (gr. I) and Santa Monica Handicap (gr. I) in December and January, respectively. Although she is likely at her very best sprinting, she has proven very good in route races, finishing second to Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret Handicap (gr. I), second to Havre de Grace in the Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I), and second to Miss Match in the Santa Margarita Handicap (gr. I).
Speaking of Miss Match, she is also in this race at 10-1 on the morning line. Her victory over Switch in the Santa Margarita was probably due more to the blazing pace which Switch helped set, enabling Miss Match to come flying late with her closing rally. Chasing a more reasonable pace in her next and most recent start, the Apple Blossom Handicap, she finished a very distant fourth to Havre de Grace and Switch, beaten by over twelve lengths.
Blind Luck, last year's champion three-year-old filly after scoring victories in the Las Virgenes, Kentucky Oaks, and Alabama Stakes (all grade I), is the 2-1 morning line second choice. Four consecutive runner-up performances followed her Alabama win, and in early 2011 it appeared as though she might have lost a step. But after defeating Unrivaled Belle in the La Troienne Stakes (gr. II) -- a race in which she stumbled badly at the start -- she has regained some of her stature and a victory in the the Vanity would further bolster her championship credentials.
St. Trinians is 5-2 on the morning line. She nearly pulled off an upset over Zenyatta in last year's Vanity, falling just a half-length short of holding off the champion. Given the rest of the year off after that hard race, she was less than stellar when third in the Santa Maria Stakes (gr. II) and fourth in the Santa Margarita Stakes (gr. I) over Santa Anita's dirt main track. However, when returned to a synthetic track in Hollywood Park's Milady Handicap (gr. II) -- the local prep for this race -- she ran huge to win by a length and a quarter, but was disqualified for drifting out in the stretch. However, that effort signals that she is ready for a top effort here.
American Story and She's Cheeky, third and fourth in the Milady before being placed second and third via St. Trinian's disqualification, complete the lineup of talented fillies and mares.
Ogden Phipps Handicap (gr. I)
Last year, Life at Ten streaked into the Ogden Phipps Handicap on a winning streak and as the second choice in a field of five, won by 2 3/4 lengths. This year, she enters of the Ogden Phipps off of two poor performances against lesser competition. Thus, she is the longest short on the morning line at 10-1.
The 7-5 morning line favorite is Awesome Maria, who is 3-for-3 this year. After defeating Amen Hallelujah in the Sabin Stakes (gr. III) in her 2011 debut, she dominated in the Rampart Stakes (gr. III), winning by eight lengths by the 2010 Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic winner Unrivaled Belle ran third. Last time out, she closed gamely to defeat Absinthe Minded in the Shuvee Handicap (gr. II) by a head.
Speaking of Unrivaled Belle, she is the 2-1 morning line second choice here. Runner-up in this race last year to Life at Ten, she subsequently ran second in the Ruffian Handicap (gr. I) and Beldame Stakes (gr. I) before decisively winning the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic over a pair of really nice fillies in Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. After finishing third in her 2011 debut, the above-mentioned Rampart Stakes, she returned to finish a strong second to Blind Luck in the La Troienne Stakes (gr. II) last time out. Making her third start off her layoff, she should be prepared to run her best race.
Absinthe Minded, second to Awesome Maria in the Shuvee, is back for another try at the favorite. Super Expresso, who defeated Life at Ten in the Allaire DuPont Distaff Stakes last time out; and Payton d'Oro, second in that same race, complete the field.
Pegasus Stakes (gr. III)
The mile and a sixteenth Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth Park on Saturday has drawn a small but solid field of six three-year-olds. Won last year by Afleet Express, who went on to win the Travers Stakes (gr. I), this year's edition is led by Louisiana Derby winner Pants On Fire. The colt, who defeated the eventual second and third place Kentucky Derby finishers Nehro and Mucho Macho Man in Louisiana, finished a disappointing ninth in the Kentucky Derby, but bled during the race. Given a bit of a break since then, the Pegasus will be his first start since the Derby and a step toward the Haskell Invitational in early August. Regular rider Rosie Nepravnik has the mount.
His main competition may come from Rush Now. The colt won the Dover Stakes last year and placed in a couple of other little stakes races this year before turning in a magnificent performance last time out, leading all the way in the Spend a Buck Stakes over this same track to win decisively. If he can get a clear lead early on, he could prove impossible to catch -- but this may not be possible with Pants On Fire also interested in the lead.
Clarke Lane, late-running third in the Alydar Stakes last time out, has never tried dirt before but has a potent late kick. With a solid pace in front of him, he could definitely be in the mix here. Turbo Compressor won a mile and a sixteenth allowance race by 13 1/2 lengths last time out in a breakthrough performance, and if he repeats it here he could prove a serious threat. Concealed Identity defeated Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice in the Federico Tesio Stakes in early May, but subsequently ran tenth in the Preakness Stakes. Harlan's Hello has made eight starts this year, most recently winning a mile and a sixteenth allowance optional claiming race at Belmont Park.
Red Legend Stakes
A field of ten has turned out for the feature race at Charles Town on Saturday, the $400,000 seven furlong Red Legend Stakes for three-year-olds.
The morning line favorite is J P's Gusto, a top-level two-year-old who failed to earn his way to the Kentucky Derby after performing dismally in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) and Arkansas Derby (gr. I). However, he has always been at his very best sprinting, and a return to the seven furlong distance of the Red Legend Stakes should enable him to run a much improved race. After all, he won the Del Mar Futurity (gr. I) at this distance last summer!
Decisive Moment, second to Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom in the Vinery Spiral Stakes (gr. III) before running fourteenth in the Kentucky Derby, is the second choice and should appreciate the turn back in distance. Little Drama, third in both the Hutcheson Stakes (gr. II) and Swale Stakes (gr. II) at the Gulfstream meet, enters the Red Legend off of a sharp victory in the seven furlong Philmont Stakes at Parx Racing, which he won in 1:21.82. Yankee Pashion won a six furlong allowance race at Oaklawn in January, but has not raced since finishing fifth in the Southwest Stakes on month later. Loranger Native won the Blue and Gold Stakes last time out going seven furlongs, but hasn't been facing this caliber of competition. Black N Beauty ran fourth last time out in Woodbine's Woodstock Stakes. Vee's Accolade has been sprinting well against some good horses recently and may be able to hit the board at a decent price. B G Suavecito, Der Meister, and Nacho Saint complete the field.
Other Stakes Races
* The Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs has drawn a great field, including the promising Wilburn, Illinois Derby (gr. II) winner Joe Vann, Scotus, a solid allowance runner, and Uncle Brent, winner of the Northern Spur Stakes in April. With a field of this caliber, I would not be surprised if numerous future stakes winners emerge from this race. I am particularly impressed with Wilburn, whom I think could be a future star.
* The Jefferson Cup Stakes (gr. III) -- also at Churchill Downs -- has drawn a field of eight, but at the time I am writing this, four runners have scratched. The heavy favorite is Banned, who turned in a simply destructive performance in the American Turf Stakes (gr. II) last time out at Churchill Downs. Words cannot begin to describe how impressive his late run was. It was amazing. He isn't facing much today -- a pair of maiden special weight winners Redboard and Benergy, who are facing winners for the first time today, and Perregaux, runner-up in a recent one-mile turf allowance race.
* The one-mile Hill Prince Stakes (gr. III) on the turf at Belmont Park has drawn a field of nine, led by multiple graded stakes winner Air Support. The colt won the Transylvania Stakes (gr. III) in his 2011 debut, then ran third in the American Turf Stakes (gr. II) behind Banned. However, the one-mile distance of this race may actually be a bit short for him. If this is the case, then Chinglish, Humble and Hungry, and Master Dunker, the first through third place finishers in the James W. Murphy Stakes last time out, could all pull off an upset. Fastest Magician and Longhunter, the 1-2 finishers in the A Gift Stakes, could also contend.
* The $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup Stakes, open for the first time this year to older horses, has drawn a very good field of eight. The morning line favorite is Smart Bid, who has finished in the top three in all four starts this year. He won the Mervin H. Muniz Memorial Handicap (gr. II) two starts back, then most recently rallied strongly to just miss catching Get Stormy in the grade I Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes (gr. I). Moryba, sixth in the Turf Classic and third in the Mervin Muniz, is the second choice. Court Vision won the Woodbine Mile Stakes (gr. I) last summer, but has not finished in the top three since then. Guys Reward was third last time out, beaten two noses, in the Louisville Handicap (gr. III). When he can set a slow pace, he can be tough to pass.
-Keelerman
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