The third and final leg of the Triple Crown, the historic 143rd-running of the $1,000,000 Belmont Stakes (gr. I), is to be run tomorrow afternoon at Belmont Park in New York. Often referred to as the "Test of Champions," the race is a mile and a half in distance; a distance which separates the sprinters from the stayers. Unlike the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, in which a horse with a sprinter's pedigree can succeed with luck, the Belmont Stakes requires a great deal of stamina, speed, and the ability to deliver short, decisive bursts of speed at numerous occasions during the race. A horse must have the ability to rate; to wait until the field turns into the long homestretch before making its move for the lead.
A field of twelve, led by Kentucky Derby (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom, and Preakness (gr. I) winner Shackleford, has turned out for the 2011 edition of the historic race. Here are my thoughts and selections, grouping the entries into three categories, as usual.
Unlikely Contenders
#11 ISN'T HE PERFECT - According to the Beyer speed figures, this colt turned in the best performance of his career in the Preakness Stakes three weeks ago. However, he still finished ninth of fourteen. Although you have to like how tough this colt is -- he's made thirteen starts -- he has only ever hit the board three times and doesn't appear to be good enough to compete in a spot like this. On the other hand, he does have top rider Rajiv Maragh in the saddle, and if he takes to the mile and a half distance, he might run well enough to pick up a minor award.
#3 RULER ON ICE - Although obviously a very talented colt, he doesn't appear good enough on the surface to win a race of this caliber. He ran well enough in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) back in March, rallying strongly late to finish a close up third, but a subsequent runner-up performance in the Federico Tesio Stakes to Concealed Identity -- who returned to run poorly in the Preakness Stakes -- does not bode well for his chances here. Furthermore, he is a son of Roman Ruler, a fine racehorse indeed, but one that had his distance limitations, limitations that he has passed on to his progeny. Although I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see him hit the board, I have the feeling that he is going to be an also-ran. He will be running with blinkers on today.
#8 PRIME CUT - This colt has been under consideration for this race for a while, but wasn't confirmed for the race until he breezed five furlongs in 1:01 flat at Churchill Downs on June 6th. He looked like a star when upsetting the highly-regarded Bind in an allowance optional claiming race at Fair Grounds in March, but a subsequent second-place finish in the Lexington (gr. III) and a third in the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. II) have caused him to lose some of his luster. On the other hand, you could chalk those less-than-stellar performances up to the fact that the Lexington was on synthetics -- which he might not have cared for -- and that the Peter Pan was contested around only one turn. Like Monzon, an on-the-board finish wouldn't surprise me, but with a pedigree geared toward shorter distances, I doubt that this colt will be much of a factor.
Contenders
#7 MONZON - As the co-longest shot in the field at 30-1, I'm probably one of the only people not to have this colt in the "Unlikely Contenders" category, but I actually wouldn't be surprised if he managed to secure a piece of the purse. The colt won the Count Fleet Stakes on January 1st of this year, rallying from last to defeat the likes of J J's Lucky Train, Pants On Fire, and Arthur's Tale. A disappointing performance in the Sam F. Davis Stakes followed, and apparently something went wrong after that for he did not race again until mid-May, when he came out and ran sixth in the Peter Pan Stakes. However, I feel that this colt is much better going around two turns than one, and the one-turn Peter Pan probably wasn't suited to him. In addition, it is likely that Monzon needed a race off of such a long layoff. When viewed in this light, his Peter Pan effort doesn't look so bad, and I can see him improving enough at a mile and a half to hit the board -- especially with top rider Jose Lezcano aboard.
#1 MASTER OF HOUNDS - Although this colt is 10-1 on the morning line, I would not be surprised if he goes off at much less tomorrow afternoon. Although he has only won a single race in eight starts -- a maiden race at Tipperary in Ireland -- he missed by a nose in the UAE Derby (UAE-II) in March and finished a sneaky-good fifth in the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby, he sat back in fifteenth place early on before rallying his way through traffic in the stretch to finish fifth, beaten just 5 1/2 lengths for everything and only 2 3/4 lengths for second. He is bred to succeed at a mile and a half, has Garrett Gomez in the saddle, and should have every chance to win. On the other hand, even though he took to the Churchill Downs main track extremely well, it seems like turf horses generally perform well over the Churchill main strip -- think Paddy O'Prado last year. Time will tell how he handles the sandy Belmont main track.
#4 SANTIVA - Like Master of Hounds, this colt ran a very good race in the Kentucky Derby to finish sixth. Never too far behind, he stayed on very well in the homestretch while holding off Brilliant Speed to finish sixth, just a nose behind Master of Hounds. By Giant's Causeway out of the Smarten mare Slide, this a colt who should love the mile and a half distance of the Belmont Stakes. If ridden patiently, I believe that this colt is capable of winning. He should be able to work out an excellent trip from gate four.
#2 STAY THIRSTY - This colt is definitely one of the more interesting colts in this race. Fact #1: He has a pedigree that should carry him a mile and a half and beyond. Fact #2: As a two-year-old, he appeared to be completely exhausted at the finish of the 1 1/16th miles Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Fact #3: He had his excuse in the Florida Derby - the temperature was much too hot. Fact #4: He raced along a bit of a bad rail in the Kentucky Derby -- while tiring in the homestretch to finish twelfth. So what does this tell us? For one thing, it tells us that Stay Thirsty may improve off of his Derby performance, since it is unlikely that he will hit another bias tomorrow. On the other hand, this colt has never struck me as a horse that wants to go a mile and a half. If he succeeds, give him credit -- he's long overdue for a break-through performance. With top rider Javier Castellano in the saddle, I wouldn't be shocked if he were to win. But under the circumstances, I can't see him running much better than fourth.
#5 BRILLIANT SPEED - Like Master of Hounds, I wouldn't be surprised if this colt went off at odds lower than his morning line of 15-1. Winner of the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) with an amazing late run, he closed moderately well in the Kentucky Derby to finish seventh, beaten two noses by Santiva and Master of Hounds for fifth. A son of Dynaformer, he is bred to succeed at a mile and a half, and even though he is a deep closer, he does appear to have at least a little tactical speed -- which could enable him to secure an excellent trip in mid-pack. Joel Rosario, one of the leading riders in the country, has the mount.
Top Contenders
#9 ANIMAL KINGDOM - One could consider him the leader of this year's three-year-old crop. In six starts, he has yet to finish worse than second and has banked nearly two million dollars in earnings. Sharp winner of the Kentucky Derby, he finished a fast-closing second in the Preakness Stakes and should relish the distance of the Belmont, where he will likely be a pretty heavy favorite. He has John Velazquez, a leading rider in New York, in the saddle, and has been training beautifully for this race. The key to whether or not he wins tomorrow may lie in how close he is to the early pace. In both the Spiral Stakes and the Kentucky Derby, he sat only about six lengths from the early pace before drawing away for victories. In the Preakness, a slow break had him eighteen lengths off of the pace in the early stages, and he simply wasn't able to close fast enough to catch Shackleford. But with the added distance of the Belmont, he should be right there in the stretch.
#10 MUCHO MACHO MAN - This colt has been plagued by bad luck, in the form of missing shoes. When he is running with all four shoes, he is the colt that won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and finished a late-charging third in the Kentucky Derby. When he loses a shoe -- like he did in both the Preakness and the Louisiana Derby -- he turns in less-than-stellar performances. For the Belmont Stakes, he has both a new kind of shoes and a new farrier, which will likely end his shoeing issues. Being a June foal -- he actually won't turn three until a few days after the Belmont -- Mucho Macho Man is still growing into his massive seventeen-hand frame. Although his pedigree may be a bit questionable for a mile and a half, I have the suspicion that tomorrow is the day that he finally fulfills the promise he has shown throughout his career. He should be able to work out an excellent stalking trip, and from there I see him getting the jump on Animal Kingdom to earn the victory. Also, he has been training extremely well -- he breezed five furlongs in :59 1/5 on June 5th -- and has leading New York rider Ramon Dominguez in the saddle.
#6 NEHRO - This colt may still be eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he is among the best three-year-olds in the country. Since breaking his maiden in February, Nehro has made three starts, all of them runner-up performances. In the Louisiana Derby, he sat close to the pace and charged late to be beaten only a neck. In the Arkansas Derby, he sat far behind early before charging to be beaten a neck yet again. In the Kentucky Derby, he sat close to the pace and wore down Shackleford to finish second to Animal Kingdom. He's got the pedigree to carry him a mile and a half, and has been training well for this spot, but he will likely have to turn in the best performance of his career in order to defeat this classy field. But he is versatile -- one must admit that. He is going to be able to adapt to any pace scenario, no matter how fast or slow they go up front. Win, lose, or draw, you know that he is going to be looming a serious threat on the far turn.
#12 SHACKLEFORD - Despite his pedigree, I believe that Shackleford is going to stay farther than many people think. Winner of the Preakness Stakes last month, this son of Forestry is not bred to succeed at classic distances, but the circumstances may be right for a victory here tomorrow. He is the lone speed in this field, which will definitely help him get to the rail while breaking from gate twelve. If he can set a moderately quick pace up front -- say, a half mile in :47 2/5 -- than I believe that he will carry this field a long way. Maybe his pedigree will catch up with him in deep stretch, but I believe that he is going to have the lead turning for home and from there onward -- catch him if you can. His 1:00 1/5 breeze at Belmont on June 4th signals that he is ready to fire.
Okay. Now it is time to actually sort these thoughts into some form of selections.
Before I begin though, allow me to note one fact that has always fascinated me. Despite the long distance of the Belmont Stakes, and the obvious need for stamina, and despite the fact that the race would appear on the surface to favor deep closers because the deep closers would have more time to close -- the Belmont Stakes is not won by horses who charge from last.
Period.
There are occasional exceptions -- Jazil comes to mind -- but Jazil didn't come from all that far behind when coming from last and had the lead after a mile. To be perfectly honest, front runners -- even though it seems impossible to go wire-to-wire in a race like the Belmont -- have actually fared pretty well in recent years. Da' Tara took the field gate-to-wire in 2008, and Dunkirk performed admirably for second in 2009.
But most dominant in the Belmont are the mid-pack stalkers, who sit just off of the lead and unleash a strong run to take the lead. Summer Bird successfully employed that tactic in 2009, as did Drosselmeyer in 2010. This is why the key to Animal Kingdom's performance may be how far back he drops early on. If he goes back to last, he is going to be hopelessly far behind. On the other hand, if he sits mid-pack early, like he did in the Preakness, he is going to be right in contention turning for home.
Mucho Macho Man, Santiva, Nehro, and Prime Cut are the horses that I expect to see not far behind Shackleford in the early going. Master of Hounds, Stay Thirsty, Ruler On Ice, Isn't He Perfect, and Animal Kingdom will likely comprise the next tier of runners, with Monzon and Brilliant Speed last of all in the early stages. I predict a :47 and change half mile, followed by a 1:12 and change three-quarters.
That is what I shall base my picks off of.
Selection Time
First off, here are my traditional "Random Picks", straight from a hat:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Stay Thirsty
3 Monzon
4 Shackleford
5 Master of Hounds
6 Nehro
7 Ruler On Ice
8 Brilliant Speed
9 Isn't He Perfect
10 Santiva
11 Animal Kingdom
12 Prime Cut
What does the hat have against Animal Kingdom? Well, at least the hat picked a superfecta that might actually have a shot at coming in. . . :)
Now here are the "Highest Beyer Speed Figure In Last Race Picks"
1 Shackleford
2 Animal Kingdom
3 Nehro
4 Master of Hounds (Three-horse dead-heat with Santiva and Brilliant Speed)
4 Santiva
4 Brilliant Speed
7 Mucho Macho Man
8 Prime Cut (Dead-heat with Isn't He Perfect)
8 Isn't He Perfect
10 Stay Thirsty
11 Ruler On Ice
12 Monzon
Now for serious selections -- my picks and J.R.'s.
As you probably know, J.R. and I have been conducting a "Triple Crown Handicapping Contest" since February. Each week, we have each handicapping the major Triple Crown prep races, posting our picks on this blog. Depending on where our top selection finished in each race, we earned a certain number of points.
Currently, the standings in the competition are extremely close, and I am holding a narrow lead 181-178. Belmont Stakes day is the final day of our competition. The Belmont Stakes itself, being a Triple Crown race, is worth more points than the prep races themselves. If my top selection were to finish first, I would earn 50 points. If it ran second, I would earn 25 points. Third would garner 15 points, fourth 10, fifth 5, and sixth 1. As you can see, picking the winner of the Belmont Stakes in this contest could prove decisive in the outcome of the competitions.
So without further ado, here are our complete selections.
Keelerman
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Animal Kingdom
3 Santiva
4 Nehro
5 Shackleford
6 Master of Hounds
7 Brilliant Speed
8 Monzon
9 Prime Cut
10 Stay Thirsty
11 Ruler On Ice
12 Isn't He Perfect
J.R.
1 Master of Hounds
2 Nehro
3 Animal Kingdom
4 Brilliant Speed
5 Santiva
6 Stay Thirsty
7 Mucho Macho Man
8 Monzon
9 Shackleford
10 Prime Cut
11 Isn't He Perfect
12 Ruler On Ice
As fond of Shackleford as J.R. is, he does not believe that the colt's running style and pedigree will enable him to go this far. He sees Shackleford leading the field into the far turn before getting swallowed up by his more stamina-oriented rivals. He feels the same way about Mucho Macho Man.
He is very confident, however, that Master of Hounds will prove best tomorrow afternoon. He has felt this way since the Kentucky Derby, when he saw the colt weave his way between horses in deep stretch to finish fifth. He envisions Nehro taking the lead turning for home, but giving up the lead to Master of Hounds inside the eighth pole while holding Animal Kingdom safe.
We both like Animal Kingdom about the same, neither of us picking him to win but greatly respecting his chances. A win by Animal Kingdom would surprise neither of us.
Now, before I conclude this blog post, let us recall the selections that J.R. and I made for last year's Belmont Stakes:
Keelerman
1 Ice Box
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Fly Down
5 First Dude
6 Stately Victor
7 Stay Put
8 Drosselmeyer
9 Interactif
10 Game On Dude
11 Dave in Dixie
12 Spangled Star
J.R.
1 Spangled Star
2 Uptowncharlybrown
3 Make Music for Me
4 Ice Box
5 Game On Dude
6 Fly Down
7 Dave in Dixie
8 Stately Victor
9 Stay Put
10 First Dude
11 Interactif
12 Drosselmeyer
The Actual Results
1 Drosselmeyer
2 Fly Down
3 First Dude
4 Game On Dude
5 Uptowncharlybrown
6 Stay Put
7 Interactif
8 Stately Victor
9 Ice Box
10 Make Music for Me
11 Dave in Dixie
12 Spangled Star
As you can see, we both did rather poorly. In J.R.'s case, he picked the winner to run last and the last-place finisher to win. We still laugh about that one. Of course, I didn't do much better. . . :)
I shall be posting live blog updates throughout the day, posting the results of the major Belmont Stakes undercard races as they are run, as well as my thoughts and picks. Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
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