After months of anticipation and excitement, the 2011 Triple Crown has finally drawn to a close. Fitting to a year of major upsets in prep races, all three of the Triple Crown races were won in upset fashion. The following is a recap of this year's Triple Crown and the trails that led to it, including the results of the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest between J.R. and I. Enjoy!
Belmont Stakes Recap
The 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes was billed as a match between Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness winner Shackleford. In the end, however, neither hit the board in a Belmont Stakes that produced a more shocking upset than Animal Kingdom's Derby victory five weeks prior.
Instead, it was the previously unheralded Ruler On Ice who held off a stubborn Stay Thirsty in the stretch of the Test of Champions to win the biggest race of his career.
The start of the race was perhaps the most controversial part of the event. Over a sloppy sealed track, and before a crowd of roughly 55,000, the gates opened and the twelve runners were sent on their way. However, a couple of strides after the start, longshot Isn't He Perfect came in and bumped Mucho Macho Man, who in turn bumped into Animal Kingdom. This caused Animal Kingdom to clip heels with Monzon, which nearly caused the Derby winner-and-favorite to fall. Miraculously, the colt stayed on his feet, but the stumble nearly sent rider John Velazquez out of the saddle. As it turned out, Velazquez lost his left iron and spent a good sixteenth of a mile just getting back into the saddle. By this time, he and his mount were dead last -- over a track that had been favoring speed all day. At this point, their race was over.
Thus we head to the front of the pack, where the leaders would have every chance to hang on over the biased surface. Shackleford had broken quickly from gate twelve and had launched himself to an early lead of two lengths after running the opening quarter in a stiff :23.92. On the outside, Ruler On Ice at 24.75-1, was rating comfortably in second. Stay Thirsty was third toward the rail, followed by Santiva on the extreme outside. Nehro was tucked in along the rail sitting fifth, followed by Mucho Macho Man in the three path, Prime Cut just a head behind him, Isn't He Perfect in eighth, Brilliant Speed on the outside ninth, Master of Hounds in tenth, Monzon eleventh, and poor Animal Kingdom in last. The Derby winner was nearly fifteen lengths off the pace early on.
Up front, Shackleford was doing a good job of slowing the pace down, recording a half-mile in :49.08, three-quarters in 1:14.51, and a mile in 1:39.95. Behind him, the positions hadn't changed all that much, with a couple of notable exceptions. Brilliant Speed was inching up into contention on the outside and Animal Kingdom had passed two horses while moving into tenth place. Still, Shackleford was getting an easy trip and would be tough to pass in the stretch.
Ruler On Ice and Stay Thirsty, meanwhile, were still racing second and third, just behind Shackleford's pace. Both were looking good halfway through the race.
Shackleford continued to play "Catch me if you can!" with the field, running a mile and a quarter in 2:05.09. He entered the homestretch on top by a length, flooring the pedal in his drive for the wire. But behind him, the race was beginning to unfold dramatically. Ruler On Ice was still sitting in second, but Brilliant Speed had launched himself into contention with a brilliant move on the far turn and was now racing third, just two lengths behind Shackleford. Even more shocking was the move that Animal Kingdom was making. With a burst of speed around the far turn, he had driven past Nehro, Mucho Macho Man, Santiva, and Prime Cut like they were standing still and was now racing fifth, just four lengths from the lead. The contenders were in contention. The race had begun.
Suddenly, everything fell apart with alarming speed. Shackleford, after looking strong turning for home, had come up empty. No matter how slow the pace was, and no matter how biased the track was, and no matter how talented he was, Shackleford was unable to overcome his breeding. He held on well to the eighth pole, then gave way. He would finish fifth.
Animal Kingdom had overcome a bad start and a biased track to reach contention on the far turn. But he could not overcome his exhaustion. He had used his late run to get into a position to strike, and sadly could offer no more in the homestretch. He would finish sixth.
Brilliant Speed had raced against the bias while running far behind early, had looped his way into contention on the far turn, and drove to within a length of the lead at the eighth pole. But like Animal Kingdom, he had used his late run on the far turn. He would flatten out a bit to finish third.
This left Ruler On Ice and Stay Thirsty to engage in a thrilling stretch duel down the long Belmont Park homestretch.
Both had stayed close to the front, heeding the bias. Both had benefited from Shackleford's slow pace, and now they had only each other to defeat. They had conquered the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Spiral Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes, Risen Star Stakes, Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, and the Count Fleet Stakes. They had defeated the runner-ups from the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Arkansas Derby, UAE Derby, Risen Star Stakes, and Lexington Stakes. Furthermore, they had left in the dust the third place finishers from the Kentucky Derby, Louisiana Derby, and Peter Pan Stakes. Together, they had conquered what has been billed as one of the finest fields in the history of the Belmont Stakes. They had both run winning races, deserving of great accolades. Only one question remained -- who would win?
Sadly, one of the colts would have to lose. Stay Thirsty had hugged the rail all the way around the track and figured to have more stamina left. But it was Ruler On Ice, three to four wide throughout, who gamely clung to the lead throughout that final, hard eighth of a mile to score a three-quarter length victory in the Test of Champions.
Stay Thirsty was courageous to the finish, ending up a length and a half clear of Brilliant Speed. Nehro outfinished the two classic winners for fifth, denying Shackleford the honor of hitting the board by a neck. Animal Kingdom finished a length and a half further back in sixth. It was all of fifteen lengths back to Mucho Macho Man, who had made a bold run to reach contention on the far turn before tiring badly late.
The complete order of finish was:
1 Ruler On Ice
2 Stay Thirsty
3 Brilliant Speed
4 Nehro
5 Shackleford
6 Animal Kingdom
7 Mucho Macho Man
8 Santiva
9 Monzon
10 Master of Hounds
11 Prime Cut
12 Isn't He Perfect
Versus my selections . . .
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Animal Kingdom
3 Santiva
4 Nehro
5 Shackleford
6 Master of Hounds
7 Brilliant Speed
8 Monzon
9 Prime Cut
10 Stay Thirsty
11 Ruler On Ice
12 Isn't He Perfect
. . . and J.R.’s picks.
1 Master of Hounds
2 Nehro
3 Animal Kingdom
4 Brilliant Speed
5 Santiva
6 Stay Thirsty
7 Mucho Macho Man
8 Monzon
9 Shackleford
10 Prime Cut
11 Isn't He Perfect
12 Ruler On Ice
As you can see, neither of us had any idea as to who would win! J.R. and I had a good laugh, though, when we realized that for the second straight year, J.R. picked the eventual winner to finish last.
Now here are the “Highest Beyer Speed Figure In Last Race” picks:
1 Shackleford
2 Animal Kingdom
3 Nehro
4 Master of Hounds (Three-horse dead-heat with Santiva and Brilliant Speed)
4 Santiva
4 Brilliant Speed
7 Mucho Macho Man
8 Prime Cut (Dead-heat with Isn't He Perfect)
8 Isn't He Perfect
10 Stay Thirsty
11 Ruler On Ice
12 Monzon
And the “Random Picks”:
1 Mucho Macho Man
2 Stay Thirsty
3 Monzon
4 Shackleford
5 Master of Hounds
6 Nehro
7 Ruler On Ice
8 Brilliant Speed
9 Isn't He Perfect
10 Santiva
11 Animal Kingdom
12 Prime Cut
To be perfectly honest . . . I think that the Random Picks did best!
Pace Analysis
Normally, I don’t include a section in my posts analyzing the pace of a major race, but I feel that this Belmont Stakes deserves such a section.
I would like to compare the pace of the 2011 Belmont Stakes to the 2010 edition won by Drosselmeyer. Take a look:
2011 Belmont - :23.92, :49.08, 1:14.51, 1:39.95, 2:05.09, 2:30.88
2010 Belmont - :24.15, :49.19, 1:14.94, 1:40.25, 2:04.97, 2:31.57
Both races had a similar setup, with a lone speed horse going to the lead and slowing the pace down before tiring in the final eighth of a mile. This year, that horse was Shackleford. Last year, the horse was First Dude. Shackleford finished fifth, beaten 7 3/4 lengths. First Dude finished third, beaten a length.
Overall, the 2010 Belmont Stakes pace was on average 27.5 hundreths of a second slower than the 2011 pace. The 2010 Belmont runners ran slower at every call except for the mile and a quarter fraction, where they ran 12 hundredths of a second faster. So, as you can see, the 2010 Belmont runners ran slower for the first mile, then turned in a :24.72 second fifth quarter to reach a mile and a quarter in 2:04.97. They then slowed down and closed their final quarter in :26.60. In contrast, the 2011 Belmont runners ran their fifth quarter in :25.14 -- 42 hundredths of a second slower than in the 2010 Belmont -- yet closed their final quarter in :25.79, which is 81 hundredths of a second faster than in the 2010 Belmont.
Now comes the really fascinating part. The 2011 Belmont was run over a sloppy track, while the 2010 Belmont was run on a fast surface. On the surface, this makes the 2011 running of the Belmont Stakes look considerably stronger than the 2010 edition. The final time of this year's Belmont was faster than last year's, and they did it over an off track.
But take a glance at the Beyer Speed figures earned by the two winners for their victories. Drosselmeyer earned a 94; Ruler On Ice a 100. Surely, the difference between these figures should be larger. After all, Ruler On Ice recorded a faster final time than Drosselmeyer and did it over a sloppy track! All logic seems to say that Ruler On Ice ran a much better race than Drosselmeyer did last year.
However, upon further examination, we find that this is not the case. The difference in the final times of the two races was 69 hundreths of a second, or when you rounded to the nearest fifth, three-fifths. Ruler On Ice ran three-fifths of a second faster than Drosselmeyer. When you take into account the difference in the final times of the two races -- that 69 hundreths -- we find that this equates to a difference of roughly four Beyer points at a mile and a half. Thus, had Ruler On Ice recorded an identical final time to what Drosselmeyer ran last year, he would have earned a Beyer of about 96, perhaps 95 -- virtually identical to Drosselmeyer's. Which means that the track variant for the Belmont Stakes in 2011 and 2010 was virtually identical as well -- just a tad bit slower.
Which brings us back to the pace setups in the two different races. Forget all of the calculations that we just discussed above. Ruler On Ice earned a 100 in his Belmont victory; Drosselmeyer a 94. Ruler On Ice earned the better figure.
Yet could he have beaten last year's Belmont field? According to rough calculations, Ruler On Ice ran his opening quarter mile just a little bit slower than First Dude did in the 2010 Belmont Stakes. First Dude was on the lead. Thus, we can safely assume that Ruler On Ice would have been right behind First Dude in the early stages. He probably would have remained right behind him for much of the race, and after a mile they should have been pretty much even. Yet here is where things get interesting.
In the 2011 Belmont, Ruler On Ice ran his fifth quarter in approximately :25.14 seconds. First Dude ran his in :24.72, a difference of 42 hundredths, as mentioned above. If -- in this imaginary Belmont in which Ruler On Ice and First Dude are competing -- they ran their fifth quarters in the above-mentioned times, First Dude would have blasted clear of Ruler On Ice, leading his rival by two or three lengths turning for home. Yet in the 2010 Belmont, First Dude crawled home his own final quarter in roughly :26.80 seconds, while Ruler On Ice came home in roughly :25.59 -- a full 1 1/5th seconds faster, fast enough to catch First Dude with speed to spare.
Yet what is intriguing is the fact that this scenario would never occur. If First Dude and Ruler On Ice were racing together with a half-mile to run, there is no way that the jockey of First Dude is going to ask his colt to open up a big lead before the field enters the homestretch. He would wait patiently, allowing his mount to run just enough to stay in front of Ruler On Ice. If the latter ran his fifth quarter in :25.14 seconds, than First Dude would do the same -- in other words, he would run his fifth quarter roughly a half-second slower than he did in the 2010 Belmont Stakes, thus leaving him with additional stamina to use in the final quarter mile. With this additional stamina, he would not close his final quarter in :26.80. He would close it faster.
How much faster is open to question, and impossible to gauge. But he certainly would have made a race out of it.
On the other hand, we could say that the opposite happens. First Dude does speed up and run his fifth quarter in :24.72. Now let's say that Ruler On Ice, not wanting to be left behind, speeds up as well, thus running his fifth quarter in roughly :24.72. Having used more energy during the fifth quarter, Ruler On Ice is not going to close his sixth and final quarter in the roughly :25.59 that he did in the 2011 Belmont. He would slow down because he is more tired from the exhausting fifth quarter. Would he go slowly enough to allow First Dude to keep the lead? Again, this is open to question and impossible to gauge.
But we can take a carefully-thought-out guess. Listen closely: In the 2010 Belmont Stakes, First Dude ran the first three-quarters of a mile in 1:14.94. Using the very rough "one length equals one-fifth of a second" equation, we find that Ruler On Ice ran his first three-quarters of the 2011 Belmont in 1:14.71, or 23 hundredths of a second faster than First Dude. This is enough to put him in front of First Dude by roughly one length. Now take the last three quarters run by each horse in their respective Belmont Stakes. We find that First Dude ran his final three quarters in 1:16.83 seconds, while Ruler On Ice's final three quarters went in 1:16.56 -- 27 hundredths of a second faster. So if Ruler On Ice led First Dude by 23 hundredths of a second with six furlongs remaining, then added another 27 hundredths of a second to his lead, that equates to 50 hundredths of a second, or roughly 2 1/2 lengths. Thus, we can take a rough guess and state that Ruler On Ice might have been able to defeat First Dude by about 2 1/2 lengths.
Yet all of these calculations are only considering Ruler On Ice and First Dude, which is not completely fair, for First Dude did not win the 2010 Belmont Stakes. He was third. I have used him as an example simply because he was the early pacesetter and his fractional times are simple to caculate.
Now let us consider where Drosselmeyer might have finished against Ruler On Ice and First Dude in this imaginary Belmont Stakes. Drosselmeyer was 2 1/2 lengths behind First Dude in the 2010 Belmont after one mile. As mentioned above, Ruler On Ice ran fast enough to be right with First Dude after a mile. Thus, we find Drosselmeyer 2 1/2 lengths behind Ruler On Ice.
Yet in the 2010 Belmont Stakes, Drosselmeyer made up one length during the fifth quarter of a mile, which First Dude ran in :24.72. This means that Drosselmeyer ran his own fifth quarter in :24.72. Furthermore, Drosselmeyer made up the final length and a half on First Dude during the final quarter mile, run in :26.60 seconds. Thus Drosselmeyer ran his own final quarter in about :26.30 seconds. In addition, according to rough caculations, Drosselmeyer ran his fourth quarter in under :25 seconds -- perhaps about :24.85. This fraction is based on the fact that Drosselmeyer was about three lengths behind First Dude after three-quarters of a mile. According to further calculations, Ruler On Ice ran fast enough in his Belmont to be a length in front of First Dude in this imaginary match up. Thus, Ruler On Ice would lead Drosselmeyer by four lengths after three-quarters of a mile.
Now let's look at how fast Drosselmeyer and Ruler On Ice closed their final three-quarters of a mile in their respective Belmonts. Drosselmeyer closed in roughly 1:15.87; Ruler On Ice in 1:16.56 -- a difference of 69 hundredths, or about 3 1/2 lengths. Based on these fractions, we find that Drosselmeyer could have made up 3 1/2 lengths on Ruler On Ice in the final six furlongs, which would put him a half-length behind Ruler On Ice at the finish -- much closer than the final times and speed figures suggest. Close enough so that little bumps, and how wide each horse went on the turns, could affect the outcome. Remember -- Drosselmeyer raced five wide around the entire track in the 2010 Belmont Stakes. Ruler On Ice didn't go nearly as wide in 2011.
So after this extremely lengthy section of this post -- which I must admit, is longer than I intended it to be -- what have we discovered? Well, to be perfectly honest, not much. There were a lot of places in the above analysis that used "rough calculations" -- too many, in fact. Yet in conclusion, I feel that despite Ruler On Ice's superior final time and Beyer speed figure, Drosselmeyer -- and Fly Down for that matter, who close just as fast as Drosselmeyer did in the 2010 Belmont after a rough trip -- would have given Ruler On Ice everything he could handle in an imaginary Belmont Stakes. I guess you could say that I am defending Drosselmeyer to some extent, who has sort of become famous for winning what is regarded as perhaps the weakest Belmont in many years. At least he was good enough, by these calculations, to contend against the 2011 Belmont Stakes field. . .
Triple Crown Handicapping Contest Wrap-Up
After several months of weekly handicapping, close finishes, and stunning comebacks, the Triple Crown Handicapping Contest has finally reached its conclusion.
The early advantage was mine -- then J.R. took a sizeable lead. Then I battled back and had built up a nearly insurmountable lead prior to the Kentucky Oaks. But after J.R.'s selections finished second in the Oaks, Kentucky Derby, and Preakness -- while my respective picks ran fourth, eighth, and sixth -- it was J.R. who had taken the lead.
A few Saturdays later, we entered Belmont Stakes Saturday virtually tied, 181-178, with a three-point lead in my favor. Four contest races were scheduled -- the Affirmed Stakes (gr. III), the Woody Stephens Stakes (gr. I), the Acorn Stakes (gr. I), and the Belmont Stakes (gr. I).
The first race run was the Acorn Stakes, where I had sided with the heavy in Turbulent Descent while J.R. went out on a limb and picked 10-1 shot It's Tricky. On the far turn it looked like Turbulent Descent was going to blow right by the leaders, including It's Tricky, but the latter filly proved much too good, drawing away for a decisive victory.
The score was now 186-188, in J.R.'s favor.
Next up was the Woody Stephens Stakes. I had picked mild longshot Justin Phillip, while J.R. had selected the fine sprinter J J's Lucky Train. Justin Phillip went straight to the lead, took advantage of the speed bias, and coasted home clear by several lengths. J J's Lucky Train rallied late to just grab second.
The score was now 196-193, in my favor. Once again, I held a three point lead.
The Affirmed Stakes proved decisive in deciding the outcome of the contest. My selection was the favorite, Coil. J.R. had picked Alydar Stakes winner Awesome Patriot. Both colts were trained by Bob Baffert.
Coil, in his first start around two turns, held off a late run from Runflatout to win the race in sharp fashion. Awesome Patriot came home a disappointing fifth.
The score was now 206-193, in my favor. It would stay that way.
Going into the Belmont Stakes, J.R. was down by thirteen points and needed a strong performance by his selection Master of Hounds to get back into the picture. A win would have guaranteed victory for J.R. -- he would have earned fifty points, and even if my pick Mucho Macho Man were to finish second, I would only earn 25. That would have put the score at 231-243, giving J.R. a twelve point victory. However, Mucho Macho Man tired to finish seventh and Master of Hounds broke poorly and ran tenth. Neither of us earned a point, meaning that the final score was 206-193. I had won by thirteen points.
Let's take a look at how our picks fared over the course of the contest:
| Handicapper | # of races handicapped | Firsts | Seconds | Thirds |
| Keelerman | 47 | 18 | 2 | 7 |
| J.R. | 47 | 7 | 12 | 10 |
As you can see, I picked eleven more winners than J.R. did, but he still managed to finish very close to me thanks to his marvelous selections in the Oaks, Derby, and Preakness. Overall, 27 of my 47 selections finished in the top three, whereas 29 of J.R.'s 47 picks cracked the trifecta.
But J.R. is confident that I was just lucky. He is good-naturedly positive that my victory was a fluke, and has challenged me to a "Breeders' Cup Handicapping Contest". We had so much fun with this one. . . why not? We have agreed to hold a competition. We shall post the details sometime this week. Be sure to check it out!
Season in Review
The names Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, and Ruler On Ice might be on the tips of everyone's tongues today, but they were completely unknown when I posted my first "Triple Crown Top Twenty" in early December last year. Let us take a look at the twenty horses included on my list. Bold face denotes a horse that started in one of the Triple Crown races:
1 To Honor and Serve
2 Uncle Mo
3 Santiva
4 Comma to the Top
5 Brethren
6 Mucho Macho Man
7 Boys at Tosconova
8 Jaycito
9 Rogue Romance
10 Stay Thirsty
11 Premier Pegasus
12 Gourmet Dinner
13 Astrology
14 Awesome Feather
15 Read the Contract
16 Mountain Town
17 Major Gain
18 J P's Gusto
19 Decisive Moment
20 Curlinello
To Honor and Serve, Uncle Mo, Brethren, Boys at Tosconova, Jaycito, Rogue Romance, Premier Pegasus, Gourmet Dinner, Awesome Feather, Read the Contract, Mountain Town, Major Gain, J P's Gusto, and Curlinello all fell off of the Triple Crown trail due to injury or sickness -- or in the case of Read the Contract and J P's Gusto, a lack of ability to succeed at the caliber and/or distance of the Triple Crown races.
Other notable horses to enter the top twenty and then fall off again over the months were Tapizar, The Factor, Arthur's Tale, and Toby's Corner. One could argue that the most talented three-year-olds of this crop failed to make the starting gate for any of the Triple Crown races.
Fortunately, most of them are recuperating from whatever problems kept them from the classics. Uncle Mo and The Factor are both tentatively pointing toward the King's Bishop Stakes (gr. I) in late August. To Honor and Serve might be back in time to hit the races this fall -- with luck, perhaps the Jockey Club Gold Cup could be in his future. Brethren was given a break following a dismal finish in the Arkansas Derby and should be back to the races before too long. Premier Pegasus and Rogue Romance's bones are mending, Jaycito is back in training following a foot bruise, Gourmet Dinner is on his way back, and Awesome Feather is working out at Belmont Park. The only horse not on his way back to the races is Curlinello, who has been retired.
In Conclusion
Jockey John Velazquez won his first Kentucky Derby. Jockeys Jesus Castanon and Jose Valdivia, Jr. scored their first Triple Crown race victories in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes, respectively. Trainers Graham Motion, Dale Romans, and Kelly Breen all won their first Triple Crown races with respective victories in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont.
Animal Kingdom, Shackleford, and Ruler On Ice all have the Haskell Invitational and Travers Stakes on their agendas, so as long as they all remain healthy we should see some really great races later this year. We have sophomores returning off of lengthy layoffs as well. We have up-and-comers like Coil, Smash, C J Russell, and Justin Phillip all entering the picture. Pants On Fire, Stay Thirsty, Mucho Macho Man, and Brilliant Speed add additional depth to this year's crop.
Maybe they don't earn the most impressive speed figures, or turn in the fastest final times. But this year's crop of three-year-olds have given us one thrilling race after another. In a year without a standout older male, one of these colts might just end up being Horse of the Year.
This weekend, the focus of this blog switches over to the Breeders' Cup, which is being held for the second straight year at Churchill Downs in early November. We might not have Zenyatta going for a repeat Classic win this year, but we have Goldikova, Havre de Grace, and Twirling Candy to be excited about. It's going to be a fun second half of the year! Enjoy the races everyone!
-Keelerman
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