FEATURE RACE – Ohio Derby (gr. III)
Thistledown, $100,000 purse, 8.5 furlongs
The $100,000 Ohio Derby, won last year by the grade I-placed Pleasant Prince, has drawn a large field of ten promising three-year-olds, including LeComte Stakes (gr. III) winner Wilkinson and Smarty Jones Stakes winner Caleb’s Posse. Although it is unlikely than any Eclipse champions will emerge from this race, it is going to be fascinating to watch nonetheless.
Drawing the rail is Caleb’s Posse, the 3-1 morning line favorite. As mentioned above, he won the Smarty Jones Stakes back in January – a race in which future Arkansas Derby (gr. I) winner Archarcharch finished fourth. A bad trip cost him any chance at winning the Southwest Stakes (gr. III), but he rebounded off of his sixth-place finish there to run second in the Rebel Stakes (gr. II) behind The Factor while finishing ahead of Archarcharch yet again. Sent off at 17.60-1 in the Arkansas Derby, he was pinched at the start and never fired, finishing twelfth. But he has been given a break since then, and has training well for his return. Jockey Eusebio Razo, Jr. has the mount.
In gate two we find Valiant Tenobob, a lightly-raced, gelded son of Yankee Gentleman. He went 3-for-3 as a juvenile, concluding his two-year-old season with a visually impressive seven-length triumph in the Michigan Futurity. But in that race, he closed from last off of a pretty decent pace, and closed his final two quarters in :28.37 and :29.04 to complete the mile race in 1:45.23. He made his 2011 debut in late March at Mountaineer, where he suffered his first defeat when second in an allowance race. In his most recent start, he was then sent off at 89-1 in the Tom Ridge Stakes at Presque Isle Downs, where he finished seventh. Off of these performances, I can’t see him winning here. Octavios Bernal will ride.
This brings us to El Grayling, 6-1 on the morning line. He has shown promise during his career, but has never really turned in a stakes-caliber performance. Briefly on the Triple Crown trail, a last-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and a fifth in the Illinois Derby ended any chances of making the Derby. His most recent race came in a 1 1/16th mile allowance race on May 7th, where he finished fourth behind Worldly and Bind. To be ridden by Victor Lebron, I can see him finishing on the board, but I doubt that he is good enough at this time to win a race of this caliber.
Le Mans, also 6-1 on the morning line, has drawn gate four. He has had an interesting career thus far. After finishing fourth in a pair of maiden special weights – albeit behind some very good horses – he was entered in the grade II Louisiana Derby. Although obviously ambitiously placed, he ran respectively well – he was fifth at the eighth pole – before tiring in the final eighth to finish tenth. He then returned to break his maiden by five lengths at Churchill Downs, completing a one-mile maiden special weight in the sharp time of 1:35.73. If he can improve just a little bit today, he can win this race. Christopher Emigh has the mount.
In gate five is Picaroo, the co-longest shot in the field at 20-1, and for a reason. In his last four starts, he has not finished better than fourth and most recently ran fifth in a claiming race. Perhaps his connections know something that I don’t, but I’m afraid that I can’t see him hitting the board here. He has a cute name, though! Hector Rosario, Jr. will ride.
Marco’s Fling is the other 20-1 shot, although his credentials appear to be better than Picaroo’s. Last time out, he finished a close third in an allowance and three back ran second in an allowance race while finishing ahead of Pluck. But like Picaroo, he has turned in some dismal efforts in claiming races and I would be surprised to see him hit the board. He will be ridden by Filmer Munaylla.
Irish Lion is in gate seven, and is 15-1 on the morning line. Although he too has performed poorly in claiming races this year, his last two races have been very good. After finishing second to Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) runner-up Crimson Knight in a one-mile turf allowance race, he won a similar event last time out by 1 ¼ lengths. If he takes to the dirt, he could be a dangerous competitor at a price. Ronald Allen, Jr. has the mount.
This brings us to Wilkinson, who looked like a Triple Crown caliber colt after defeating Pants On Fire by a head in the LeComte Stakes (gr. III). But subsequent sixth- and tenth-place finishes in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) respectively cost him any shot at heading to the Kentucky Derby. But the stretch-running colt rebounded to win his next and most recent race, a mile and a sixteenth main track allowance race at Churchill Downs against older horses. Winning this race is definitely within his abilities. Brian Hernandez, Jr. will ride the colt.
Goodtimehadbyall is 12-1 on the morning line. He has been busy this year, as this will be his seventh start of the year. He has proven to be a very solid allowance competitor, but his one try in stakes company – last time out in the six furlong Tom Ridge Stakes – yielded a sixth-place finish. Today’s mile and a sixteenth distance may be a bit out of his range, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit the board. Francisco Torres has the mount.
Finally, we come to Global Power, the most lightly raced horse in the field with only two starts. On April 3rd, he finished second in a six furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park while defeating Jack London, who returned to break his maiden two starts later by twelve lengths. Global Power then won a seven furlong maiden special weight by three-quarters of a length in a sharp 1:22.67. He has been training nicely for this race and I would not be surprised at all if he was to win, but this will be his first two-turn race and he will have to overcome breaking from the extreme outside. Jeffrey Sanchez will ride.
So my selections are:
1 Caleb’s Posse
2 Le Mans
3 Wilkinson
4 Irish Lion
5 Marco’s Fling
6 El Grayling
7 Global Power
8 Goodtimehadbyall
9 Valiant Tenobob
10 Picaroo
J.R.’s selections are:
1 Irish Lion
2 Caleb’s Posse
3 El Grayling
4 Le Mans
5 Wilkinson
6 Marco’s Fling
7 Goodtimehadbyall
8 Global Power
9 Picaroo
10 Valiant Tenobob
Other Stakes Action
In the Dogwood Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs, six fillies are scheduled to go to post. Eight horses were originally entered, but the scratches of Juanita and Henny’s Hurricane have reduced the number of runners to its present total.
The 2-1 morning line favorite is Might, a full sister to last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) winner and champion older male Blame. She has impressively won her last two races, including a seven furlong allowance race by 4 ¾ lengths. This is a big step up in class, but she should be able to handle it.
However, my pick to win is Holy Heavens. Runner-up in the Honeybee Stakes (gr. III) and third in the Fantasy (gr. II) earlier this spring, she did not get a good trip at all when finishing last of thirteen in the Kentucky Oaks. But I believe that she is capable of much better, and this race should be a much easier spot for her. I think that with a clean trip, she can win.
J.R. likes Fantasy of Flight, who has only made one start. But it was a good one, as she dominated in a six-furlong maiden special weight at Churchill Downs, winning the race by 4 ¾ lengths in the sharp time of 1:09.53. J.R. admits that she has a lot to overcome here – she’ll be running a quarter of a mile farther today and taking a huge step up in class – but he is confident that she is a stakes-caliber filly and a future star.
Our picks are:
Keelerman: Holy Heavens, Might, Salty Strike
J.R.: Fantasy of Flight, Salty Strike, Might
Candy goes for Redemption
After making eight starts, two things are obvious about the remarkable Twirling Candy. Number one, he is immensely talented. Number two, he either runs really well or really badly. No in between.
In his eight starts, Twirling Candy has won six times. The other two times he has finished out of the top three.
He won his first four starts impressively, including the Del Mar Derby (gr. II) by 3 ¼ lengths. He then finished fourth in the Goodwood Stakes after being rank early on.
Then he rebounded to stunning victories in the Malibu Stakes (gr. I) and the Strub Stakes (gr. II), breaking Spectacular Bid’s track record in the latter. Sent off as the heavy favorite in the Santa Anita Handicap, he never really settled and ended up fifth.
So the question is: which Twirling Candy will show up in tonight’s Californian Stakes, where he is the 4-5 morning line favorite? He is the fastest speed in the race, and should be able to go right to the lead from gate one. But will he settle into stride and dominate, or never settle and fall to a stunning defeat as the likely odds-on favorite? We’ll find out tonight.
A Notable Return
Alienation, runner-up in both the Adirondack Stakes (gr. II) and the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) last summer at Saratoga, made her first start since finishing sixth in the Oak Leaf Stakes (gr. I) on June 3rd at Hollywood Park. Sent off as the odds-on favorite at 0.60-1 in an allowance race, she dueled for the lead through an opening quarter in :21.82 before dismissing her five rivals and drawing away to a 7 ¾ length victory under a hand ride. She completed the six furlong event in a sharp 1:09.23. I fully expect to see her back competing in graded stakes races soon.
-Keelerman
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