Man o' War Stakes (gr. I)
11 furlongs on the Belmont Park turf course
Entries:
Post Positions
| PP | Horse | Weight | Jockey | Trainer |
| 1 | Tahoe Lake | 116 | Eddie Castro | Kenneth McPeek |
| 2 | Center Divider | 116 | Rosie Napravnik | Chad Brown |
| 3 | Point of Entry | 118 | Jose Lezcano | Claude McGaughey III |
| 4 | Newsdad | 118 | Junior Alvarado | Bill Mott |
| 5 | Treasure Beach | 120 | Jamie Spencer | Aidan O'Brien |
| 6 | Game Ball | 116 | David Cohen | Naipaul Chatterpaul |
| 7 | Hudson Steele | 118 | Joe Bravo | Todd Pletcher |
| 7 | Philly Ace | 116 | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | Christophe Clement |
The morning line favorite -- and the only grade I winner in the race -- is Treasure Beach, a talented European shipper from the powerful barn of Aidan O'Brien. Last year, the son of Galileo won the Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Ire-I), as well as Arlington Park's Secretariat Stakes (gr. I), during a campaign that saw him race in five different countries while competing in some of the world's biggest races. This year, his form has been less-than-stellar, his best finish from two starts being a fourth in the Dubai Sheema Classic (UAE-I), but he has had some legitimate excuses for his poor performances, and this looks like an excellent spot for him to get back on track.
The American hopefuls, while a talented enough group of runners, lack the flashy credentials of the favorite. Point of Entry is the second choice on the morning line based off of his victory in the Elkhorn Stakes (gr. II) last time out, and he has never failed to fire on turf. If, for one reason or another, Treasure Beach should fail to bring his best race across the Atlantic, then Point of Entry should be able to use his potent late kick to secure the victory.
Three other runners from the Elkhorn have returned for today's race, the most prominent being Tahoe Lake, the runner-up. Since the Elkhorn, he has finished a close third in the Louisville Handicap (gr. III) and seventh in an allowance race, in which he failed to menace in the homestretch after being fairly close to the early pace. Coming back just fifteen days later, it's difficult to say for sure how he will perform, but I feel his allowance effort was much better than it appeared to be on the surface, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him rebound today.
The other two Elkhorn also-rans are Newsdad and Center Divider. The latter colt did not finish the race after losing his jockey at the start, and he has not raced since then, but his form prior to the Elkorn disaster was fairly good, and he certainly has the pedigree to suggest that turf marathons are perfect for him. His trainer, Chad Brown, certainly knows what he's doing in turf routes, and while Center Divider is nevertheless going to be a bit of a longshot, his recent workouts suggest that he is coming into this race in strong form and could be up to securing a piece of the purse.
As for Newsdad, he had been in terrific form prior to the Elkhorn Stakes, winning an allowance race at Gulfstream by nearly seven lengths, finishing second in the Mac Diarmida Stakes (gr. II) by a nose, and winning the Pan American Stakes (gr. II) by two lengths. He then turned in a very dull effort in the Elkhorn, finishing a distant fifth as the favorite. Why he performed so badly is difficult to say -- perhaps it was the fact that the Elkhorn was his seventh race in as many months -- but his subsequent rest following the Elkhorn, coupled with some strong recent workouts, should yield an improved performance.
Hudson Steele will likely receive some wagering support thanks to his trainer (Todd Pletcher) and his big victory two starts back (the grade II Dixie Stakes at Pimlico.) Since being switched to turf back in 2010, this lightly-raced gelding has compiled a record of five victories, a second, a third, and a fourth from eight starts. The only concern is that the lone fourth-place finish came last time out in the Manhattan Handicap (gr. I), his lone start beyond nine furlongs in distance. He may find the extra furlong of today's race a bit tough to handle, but he does appear to be the lone speed in the race, and should he make an easy lead, they'll have to catch him in the homestretch.
Philly Ace (15-1) and Game Ball (30-1) are the longshots in this eight-horse field. Philly Ace has won his only two starts this year, a pair of turf allowance races, but has never started in a race of this caliber. On the other hand, he has proven himself to be quite versatile, winning race on both firm and yielding turf, and he is trained by Christophe Clement, a master at training turf horses. In fact, he won this race two years in succession with three-time Eclipse champion Gio Ponti. This will be his first start beyond nine furlongs, which is a cause for some concern, but Philly Ace seems to possess the late kick to be successful in longer races, and he has a strong enough pedigree backing him up.
As for Game Ball, he has proven extremely good at finding the winner's circle -- he has won more races (10) than any of his rivals -- but he has spent the majority of his career in claiming or starter allowance company, and is taking a huge step up in class. However, when one examines the final fractions of his races, one sees that this horse actually possesses a devastating late kick. Speed figures aside, this colt may be one of the most overlooked contenders in the race. I think he'll outrun his odds.
My selections are:
1 Treasure Beach
2 Newsdad
3 Game Ball
4 Philly Ace
Other Races of Note
At Arlington Park . . .
Race 6: The first of four grade III stakes races on the card -- all of them preps for the major races on Arlington Million day -- the $200,000 Modesty Handicap (gr. III) has drawn a very evenly-matched field of eight, with five of the runners having odds between 5-2 and 6-1 on the morning line. Among the major contenders are Romacaca, a consistent filly coming off of a close fourth in the Violet Stakes (gr. III); Bizzy Caroline, winner of the Early Times Mint Julep Handicap (gr. III) last time out; Upperline, who has won two graded stakes races this year; and Snow Top Mountain, who won the Edward P. Evans All Along Stakes (gr. III) in her last start.
Race 8: Like the Modesty, the $200,000 American Derby (gr. III) for three-year-olds has drawn what appears to be a fairly well-matched field of eleven. There is a heavy morning line favorite in Silver Max, who has won five straight races turf races, including a pair of graded stakes, but he could prove to be a bit vulnerable in his first start beyond a mile and a sixteenth. If that is the case, then expect Sachem Spirit and Cozzetti -- who have chased him home in two different turf stakes this year -- to be making up ground fast at the finish. Also, keep an eye out for Daddy Nose Best, who switches back to turf after a couple of dismal efforts in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and Preakness Stakes (gr. I).
Race 9: The favorite in the $200,000 Arlington Handicap (gr. III) is undoubtedly Boisterous, a Shug McGaughey-trainee that has won a trio of graded stakes events and placed in a pair of grade Is. Shipping in from New York after finishing a close third in the Woodford Reserve Manhattan Handicap (gr. I), he should enjoy the distance of today's race better than most of his rivals, and so long as there is some sort of pace for him to run at, he should be right there in the homestretch. Rahystrada, who won this race in 2010, seems to be rounding back into form and could be capable of pulling off a minor upset. Joinem also warrants consideration off of two strong efforts in graded stakes races this year. But perhaps the most intriguing contender is Sky Blazer, who has won a pair of turf allowance races this year in terrific fashion. He possesses a tremendous late kick, and might just be capable of outrunning Boisterous in the homestretch.
Race 10: The twelve-furlong, $150,000 Stars and Stripes Handicap (gr. III) has been moved to Million Preview day to serve as a prep for the inaugural running of the $400,000 American St. Leger, which will be held here at Arlington on August 18th. Thus, this intriguing turf route has drawn a large and well-matched field of turf marathoners, of which Musketier is the most fascinating entrant. The ten-year-old horse is having yet another strong season, and enters this race off of a narrow victory in the Singspiel Stakes (gr. III) at Woodbine, in which he became the oldest horse ever to win a graded stakes race in Canada. Coming back on just three weeks rest, it's difficult to say if he's up to another top effort, but this veteran campaigner still possesses the turn of foot necessary to win a race of this type, and a victory here would surprise no one. Workin for Hops could be dangerous if the pace is slow, as he has shown the ability in the past to carry his speed a long way if unpressured. Harrods Creek, from the barn of Bill Mott, could also be a factor, as he is quite good at traversing these long distances. Eagle Poise was beaten just a nose last time out going a 1 3/4 miles in the San Juan Capistrano Handicap (gr. II) at Santa Anita, and could be a serious threat from off the pace.
At Betfair Hollywood Park . . .
Race 2: The six-furlong Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes (gr. III) isn't usually won by future classic runners -- for the most part, it is won by early-maturing sprinter types -- but it is nevertheless a fascinating race to watch, and one can usually rely on seeing the winner go on to accomplish something later in the year. This year's favorite is Amarish, who won the Willard L. Proctor Memorial Stakes here at Hollywood Park last time out to bring his record to a perfect 2-for-2. A speedy colt, he should have no troubles with the extra distance of today's event, and looks like an odds-on favorite. Carson's Crown and Scherer Magic probably have the best chances at pulling off an upset, but both would need to show improvement to take down the favorite.
Race 4: Get ready -- I think one of the best fillies in the country is racing this afternoon in the Landaluce Stakes. Named Executiveprivilege, this Bob Baffert-trainee broke very slowly in her debut going 5-1/2 furlongs and didn't appear to have any chance at recovering. But somehow, the daughter of First Samurai was able to get into contention three-wide and blow past her rivals en route to a 4 1/2-length victory -- and under a hand ride at that! This filly is as promising a prospect as I've seen in some time, and I believe she'll bring her record to a perfect 2-for-2 this afternoon. Miss Empire, winner of the Cinderella Stakes here at Hollywood on June 16th, should be a major contender as well, but being by Empire Maker, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see her best until next year.
Race 8: The ten-furlong American Oaks (gr. I) may not have the purse that it once did, but the prestigious turf race for three-year-old fillies still draws a strong field every year, and the 2012 edition even includes a pair of European shippers, Miss Cato and Nayarra. The latter filly is actually a group I winner, having earned her only victory to date in last fall's Gran Criterium in Italy. Miss Cato's credentials are less flashy, but she has never finished worse than third in seven starts, and could be in the mix regardless of the fact that she is taking a large step up in class. Of the American hopefuls, My Gi Gi and Lady of Shamrock stand out, those two having run 1-2 in the Honeymoon Handicap (gr. II), a local prep for this race. Lady of Shamrock especially looks like a contender, as she was closing furiously at the finish of the Honeymoon, despite traffic issues, and should appreciate the extra distance offered by today's event. Colonial Flag will likely receive some wagering support as well, thanks to her strong runner-up finish in the Regret Stakes (gr. III) last time out, but she is shipping across the country, and it's difficult to say how that might affect her.
Race 9: The main question in the A Gleam Handicap (gr. II) is whether or not Switch, the morning line favorite, is past her prime. The two-time grade I winner was simply terrific in both 2010 and 2011, but her two performances this year have both been dismal. This, coupled with the fact that she hasn't actually won a race since January 2011, makes one wonder if this fine filly may be nearing the end of her career. If that is the case, than grade I winner Teddy's Promise should be up to pulling an upset, as she has drawn a perfect post position for her running style and should get a good stalking trip on the outside. American Lady and Glamorista, a pair of promising fillies from the barn of Bob Baffert, should also be in contention. Throw in the speedy Izzy Rules, the consistent Mildly Offensive, as well as the grade I-placed Sugerinthemorning, and you have yourself one extremely difficult race to decipher. All told, it should be a thrilling race to watch.
At Delaware Park . . .
Race 10: Three-year-old fillies are the star of the day, as seven of them are scheduled to head to post for the $400,000 Delaware Oaks (gr. II), which has become a major prep in recent years for Saratoga's Alabama Stakes (gr. I). The favorite will undoubtedly be Grace Hall, an Anthony Dutrow-trainee that won the Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. I) as a juvenile. This year, she has won the Gulfstream Oaks Stakes (gr. II), finished second in the Davona Dale Stakes (gr. II), and third in the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I), making her a logical choice for today's race. California shipper Via Villagio, who won the Railbird Stakes (gr. III) two starts back, is the most likely candidate for an upset. Aubby K, who finished third in the Acorn (gr. I), and up-and-coming allowance winner Morrow Cove are other logical contenders.
At Monmouth Park . . .
Race 10: The $100,000 Jersey Shore Stakes (gr. III) may be headlined by Borderland Derby winner Isn't He Clever, but the mild favorite is coming off of two poor efforts and may not be in his best form right now. If that is the case, then Cape Cod Canal, a promising maiden winner, and Wildcat Creek, a twice stakes-placed sprinter, should be able to pull off an upset.
At Parx Racing . . .
Race 9: The twelve-furlong Greenwood Cup Stakes (gr. III) is the highlight of the Saturday card at Parx, and with its "Win and You're In" status for the Breeders' Cup Marathon, it has drawn a terrific field of eight marathoners, led by a trio of Brooklyn Handicap (gr. II) winners -- Redeemed, Birdrun, and Eldaafer. Actually, all three ran in this year's edition of the Brooklyn, with Redeemed winning by ten lengths over Eldaafer, while Birdrun finished ninth after an awful trip. Those three are expected to be the main contenders today, with Win Willy, who is coming off of a strong victory in the Cape Henlopen Stakes at Delaware Park, also a legitimate contender.
***
One other race that I would like to take a moment to mention is the sixth on Saturday at Colonial Downs. The one-mile starter allowance race on the turf is certainly not a prestigious race, but it is worth mentioning nevertheless because the morning line favorite, Regal Nurse, is riding a ten-race winning streak. Like Rapid Redux last year, she is taking advantage of her eligibility for low-level starter allowance races to rake in numerous victories, and could potentially be on her way to breaking Rapid Redux’s 22-straight victories record. Good luck, Regal Nurse!
-Keelerman
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