BREEDERS' CUP COUNTDOWN -- July 28th, 2012

The final Saturday of July may not be as jam-packed with graded stakes races as some of the other recent Saturdays, but the racing action today is by no means meek. Not only is there a "Win and You're In" for the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile being held at Del Mar, there are also a pair of prestigious $600,000 stakes at Saratoga. We'll begin our analysis of the day's racing with the San Diego Handicap (gr. II) at Del Mar -- the "Win and You're In" for the Dirt Mile.

San Diego Handicap (gr. II)
1 1/16th miles on the Del Mar All Weather track

Entries:

PP	Horse	Jockey
1	Kettle Corn	Garrett Gomez
2	Mobilized	Corey Nakatani
3	Tres Borrachos	Mike Smith
4	John Scott	Victor Espinoza
5	Take Control	Rafael Bejarano
6	Prayer for Relief	Joe Talamo
7	Rail Trip	Jose Valdivia, Jr.

This race seems to be a match-up of horses returning from injury. Of the seven runners in the race, three of them -- Take Control, John Scott, and Rail Trip -- are in the process of recovering from various ailments suffered over the years. Take Control broke his maiden in 2009, but didn't start again until last month, when he won an allowance race with a terrific late run for trainer Bob Baffert. John Scott broke his maiden, won the I'm Smokin Stakes, and finished fourth in the Norfolk Stakes (gr. I) as a juvenile in 2009 -- then didn't race again until April 2012. He has since won two allowance races. Rail Trip won the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I), and finished second in that race in 2010, but a prolonged trip to New York beginning toward the end of 2010 yielded no victories and several minor injuries. Given half a year off, he returned to the races in the Los Angelas Handicap (gr. III) at Hollywood Park and finished fourth, then ran second to John Scott in an allowance race.

Determining which of these three comebackers is best -- or even if they can beat their more seasoned rivals -- is not an easy task. Take Control, being from the barn of Bob Baffert, is probably ready for another terrific performance. And John Scott is certainly in good form as well, and could prove tough to beat. Rail Trip has more back class than either of them, but has not won a race since June 2010.

Perhaps none of them will win. After all, their rivals are formidable. Kettle Corn won the Native Diver Handicap (gr. III) last December and has been competing admirable well against the likes of Game On Dude and Richard's Kid. Tres Borrachos won this race last year with an impressive rally from off-the-pace, and his last race was better than it looked. Prayer for Relief won a trio of graded stakes races last year, and while he is winless in five starts this year, he has cracked the trifecta in four of them. And let's not forget about Mobilized, a talented sprinter that is stretching out after a good effort in the Triple Bend Handicap (gr. I).

So who will win? Well, if you put the names of every runner in a hat and drew randomly, your chances of having picked the winner would be decent. I'm going to select Take Control, a horse that I have had my eye on ever since that debut victory way back in 2009. Now that Baffert has him sound, I think we could see some great things from this horse.

Other Races of Note

At Saratoga . . .

Two major graded stakes races are scheduled to be run at Saratoga this afternoon, those being the Diana Stakes (gr. I) and the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II). To read my analysis of those races, click here: http://triplecrowncountdown.blogspot.com/2012/07/saratoga-stakes-analysis-july-28th-2012.html

At Penn National . . .

Race 5: Turf sprinters are the stars of the card, with the $200,000 Pennsylvania Governor's Cup Handicap the highlight of a ten-race card. Ben's Cat, an eleven-time stakes winner, is the morning line favorite as he bids to become a millionaire. The graded stakes-placed Great Mills and the promising Varsity are expected to give the favorite a run for the money, with the other seven runners all at 10-1 or higher on the morning line.

Race 7: The $175,000 Mountainview Handicap originally drew a field of eight, but three scratches have reduced the field to five. Toby's Corner, winner of the 2011 Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I), will be attempting to win his first race since then. Excelsior Stakes (gr. III) winner Marilyn's Guy and the talented stayer Not Abroad are other logical contenders for the victory.

***

Tomorrow, I shall post my thoughts on Sunday's races, which include the $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational (gr. I), as well as the showdown between The Factor and Amazombie in the Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. I). Until then, enjoy the races everyone!

-Keelerman