HASKELL INVITATIONAL ANALYSIS

The Triple Crown season is traditionally the time of year when the top three-year-olds compete in the classics and attempt to stamp themselves as the leader of the division. But the Triple Crown season only last half a year. The second half of the season begins with the running of the $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational (gr. I) at Monmouth Park, which is traditionally the spot where three-year-olds that didn't win a Triple Crown race attempt to stamp their credentials as the best among the sophomores. This year's renewal did not draw a Triple Crown race winner, what with I'll Have Another and Union Rags being out with injuries, but the race did drawn a number of highly-talented three-year-olds that could potentially compile championships credentials by the end of the year. Let's take a look at who's running!

Haskell Invitational (gr. I)
1 1/8th miles on the Monmouth Park dirt track

Entries:

PP	Horse	Weight	Jockey	Trainer	M. L. Odds
1	Nonios	118	Corey Nakatani	Jerry Hollendorfer	7-2
2	Dullahan	120	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	3-1
3	Paynter	118	Rafael Bejarano	Bob Baffert	3-1
4	Gemologist	120	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	3-1
5	Handsome Mike	118	Mario Gutierrez	Doug O'Neill	15-1
6	Stealcase	118	Shaun Bridgmohan	Mark Casse	8-1

The heavy favorite on the morning line at 3-2 is Bob Baffert's brilliant Paynter, who -- believe it or not -- is still seeking his first stakes victory. The son of Awesome Again began his career with an impressive victory in a 5-1/2 furlong maiden special weight, then stepped up into graded stakes company and ran fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) and second in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III). He then dropped into an allowance race at Pimlico and promptly dominated by 5 3/4 lengths before taking a shot at the prestigious Belmont Stakes (gr. I). After going straight to the lead and setting a slow pace, he appeared to be home free, but an opening along the rail allowed Union Rags to sneak through and steal the victory. This will be Paynter's first start since then, and he has been training unbelievably well for his return -- all four of his workouts since the Belmont have been bullets. Baffert's record in the Haskell is also terrific, for he has won the race on five occasions, including the last two years. Thus, Paynter appears to be a deserving favorite with an excellent chance at winning.

Dullahan and Gemologist are expected to be his main rivals. The first-mentioned colt is a two-time grade I winner on Polytrack, and the third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby (gr. I), but has never won a race on dirt. Last time out, he finished a dull seventh in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) without any obvious excuse, but a combination of factors, including pace, may have compromised his chances. Being a deep closer, the faster Paynter runs on the front end, the better Dullahan's chances will be.

As for Gemologist, he has won five of his six starts, including the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. I) over subsequent Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) winner Alpha, but he has not raced since finishing a distant sixteenth in the Kentucky Derby. A foot bruise, as well as a blazing early pace, were the most logical explanations for his poor showing. Since then, he has trained very well, and breezed a bullet five furlongs in :58 2/5 at Saratoga one week ago, signaling his readiness for a return. One thing he'll have to avoid is getting into a speed duel with Paynter, and potentially setting up the race for Dullahan, but the chances of that happening seem fairly remote, considering that Gemologist seems best as a pace-tracking type.

Nonios also deserves respect, given that he won the Affirmed Handicap (gr. III) in good fashion two starts back before closing a lot of ground against a loose-on-the-lead Baffert-trainee to finish second in the Swaps Stakes (gr. II). He has never raced on dirt, which is obviously a concern, but his sire was a Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. I) winner, and his broodmare sire won the Belmont Stakes. He does possess a strong late kick, which could certainly prove menacing if the early pace is quick enough. I guess it's just a question of whether or not he can transfer his synthetic form to dirt. If he can, he has the talent to win.

Stealcase has been keeping some pretty good company in recent races, finishing third in the Derby Trial Stakes (gr. III) while just a neck behind Paynter and second in the Matt Winn Stakes (gr. III) behind subsequent Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) runner-up Neck 'n Neck. So clearly, he has the talent to compete on the big stage; the only problem is that he hasn't really put it all together and won a major race yet. But with time, I think this colt could turn out to be something special. Maybe he won't contend for the victory today, but a good effort is certainly a strong possibility.

The last colt to discuss is Handsome Mike, racing for the same connections as Kentucky Derby/Preakness winner I'll Have Another. He ran moderately well in a quartet of graded stakes races last winter, including a third-place effort in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. III), but hasn't raced since finishing fourth in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) at Turfway Park. He may be in a bit deep today, but he has certainly been training well and has the speed to contend from the start. Out-dueling Paynter for the early lead won't be easy, but if he were able to do so, he could potentially carry his speed a long way on the front end.

My selections are:

1 Paynter
4 Nonios
2 Gemologist
3 Stealcase

I conceive Paynter settling right off of the early lead, which could be set by Gemologist or Handsome Mike, before taking over around the far turn and drawing off for an impressive victory. Nonios should get a good ground-saving trip from gate one, and so long as he takes to the dirt, I expect him to finish up with a good run.

-Keelerman